POPOCATEPETL ERUPTS JULY 4, 2013

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

MEXICOPART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

USA – MEXICO FLIGHTS CANCELLED TEMPORARILY

CONCERN ABOUT AIR SAFETY FROM THE ASH

MEXICO

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN MEXICO

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN MEXICO

FLOODS

SEVERE WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

DERIVHIGH BENEFIT/COST BY BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

DERIVHIGH BENEFIT/COST BY BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

SOME OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ARE IN MEXICOSOME OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE

VOLCANOES ARE IN MEXICO

Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes sub-duction, which causes VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

VOLCANOES

PART OF THE PACIFIC “RING OF FIRE,” MEXICO HAS ACTIVE VOLCANOES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX SUBDUCTION OF

THE COCOS PLATE BENEATH THE NORTH AMERICAN PLATE

MEXICO: THE NORTH AMERICAN AND COCOS PLATES

MEXICO’S VOLCANOES (NOTE: POPOCATEPETL AND COLIMA)

IMAGES OF POPOCATEPTL

MEXICO’S BEST KNOWN ACTIVE VOLCANO AND THE SECOND HIGHEST VOLCANO IN NORTH AMERICA ERUPTED AS RECENTLY

AS APRIL 17, 2013

POPOCATEPTL AND PIRAMID DE COCHULA

“POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY

• In the past centuries before European came to Mexico, large eruptions produced giant mud flows that buried Aztec settlements, and even entire pyramids

“POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY

• After almost 50 years of dormancy, "Popo" came back to life in 1994 and has been producing powerful explosions at irregular intervals since then.

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS

• VERTICAL PLUME (can affect jet aircraft)

• ASH AND TEPHRA• LATERAL BLAST• PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS,

BURSTS, AND FLOWS

POPOCATEPTL

POPOCATEPTL

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS

• LAVA FLOWS• LAHARS (can bury villages)• EARTHQUAKES (related to

movement of lava)• “VOLCANIC WINTER” (causing

famine and mass extinctions)

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION INTERACT WITH MEXICO’S

COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION INTERACT WITH MEXICO’S

COMMUNITIES

AN ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPETL (AKA “POPO”)

WOULD IMPACT NEARBY MEXICO CITY AND PUEBLA

LOCATED 50 KM AWAY, 20 MILLION PEOIPLE ARE AT RISK

MEXICO CITY, “POPO” AND AN AIRPLANE

POPOCATEPTL

LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

FLYING DEBRIS

VOLCANIC ASH

LAVA FLOWS

LAHARS

TOXIC GASES

CAUSES OF RISK

CAUSES OF RISK

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

LIKELY IMPACTS BASED ON “POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY

• The pyroclastic mud flows can firm up like concrete once they stop, ruining farmland and, because they are difficult to remove, disrupting life in communities.

LIKELY IMPACTS

• Ash can be especially harmful and even deadly to people who are unable to evacuate.

• Ash can also be deadly to livestock, on which the resident’s livelihood may depend.

LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS

• Air traffic may disrupt the economy for long periods if the ash clouds intersect the routes of jet aircraft and are a threat to safety.

LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS

• A new major eruption of Popocatepetl would likely have a devastating economic impact on local residents who may be subsistence farmers and some of the poorest of the poor.

• Ash would be especially deadly to people and livestock (on which livelihoods depend), and a potential disaster for jet aircraft.

IMAGES OF COLIMA

Colima is not one, but two different volcanoes, the oldest one called Nevado de Colima, that is located about 450 km

(270 mi) west of Mexico City

COLIMA

COLIMA

• The Volcán de Colima, also known as Volcán de Fuego, is part of the Colima volcanic complex consisting of Volcán de Colima and Nevado de Colima.

• The youngest of the two, it is currently one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico and North America, erupting more than 40 times since 1576

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANIC--ERUPTION

DISASTER ISVOLCANO DISASTER

RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANIC--ERUPTION

DISASTER ISVOLCANO DISASTER

RESILIENCE

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

MEXICO’S

COMMUNITIES

MEXICO’S

COMMUNITIESDATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• WINDSTORM HAZARDS

• PEOPLE & BLDGS. • VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

VOLCANO RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EARLY WARNING• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• School children and adults need masks to counter adverse health effects of breathing volcanic ash.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• Volcanic ash ruins crops and vegetation and disrupts aviation.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• Although a complex activity, timely evacuation is essential for volcano dis-aster resilience

AIR AND LAND MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES ARE VITAL

.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

“RESTORATION TO NORMAL” AND RECOVERY USUALLY TAKE LONGER THAN THOUGHT.