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Republic of the Philippines Department of Agriculture BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Quezon City VOLUME 20 NO. 1 January 2006

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Page 1: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

Republic of the Philippines Department of Agriculture BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS Quezon City

VOLUME 20 NO. 1

January 2006

Page 2: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

EXPLANATORY NOTE

This report contains palay and corn crop situation for calendar year 2005 and forecasts for January-June 2006 based on farmers’ standing crop and planting intentions. These are based on the results of the January 2006 Rice and Corn Production Survey (RCPS) conducted nationwide by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics.

The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices are the results of the Farm Price Survey (FPS) and the integrated Agricultural Marketing Information System-Agricultural Marketing News Service (AGMARIS-AMNEWS). Household stocks data are obtained from the Palay and Corn Stocks Survey (PCS1) of the BAS while data on stocks in commercial and NFA depositories are from the National Food Authority (NFA). Rainfall data are sourced from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

i

Page 3: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

CONTENTS Explanatory Note i Weather Situation and Outlook iii Highlights 1 Crop Forecasts

1 Palay 2-3 2 Corn 3-5

Rice and Corn Stocks 6 Prices 1 Palay/Rice 7-8 2 Corn 8-10 3 Fertilizer 10-11 Rainfall 12 Tables

Table 1 Palay: Final crop estimates, Philippines, 2003-2005 13 Table 2 Palay: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by farm type, 14 Philippines, 2003-2005 Table 3 Palay: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by farm type, 15 Philippines, January-June 2004-2006 Table 4 Palay: Final crop estimates , by quarter, by region, 16 Philippines, 2004-2005 Table 5 Palay: Final crop estimates, by semester, by region, 17 Philippines, 2004-2005 Table 6 Palay: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by region, 18 Philippines, January-June 2004-2006 Table 7 Corn: Final crop estimates, Philippines, 2003-2005 19 Table 8 Corn: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by crop type, 20 Philippines, 2003-2005 Table 9 Corn: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by crop type, 21 Philippines, January-June 2004-2006 Table 10 Corn: Final crop estimates , by quarter, by region, 22 Philippines, 2004-2005 Table 11 Corn: Final crop estimates, by semester, by region, 23 Philippines, 2004-2005 Table 12 Corn: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by region, 24 Philippines, January-June 2004-2006 Table 13 Rice stock as of December 1, 2005, Philippines 25 Table 14 Corn stock as of December 1, 2005, Philippines 25 Table 15 Palay/Rice: Monthly prevailing prices, by type, by market level, 26 Philippines and Metro Manila, 2003 – 2005 Table 16 Corn: Monthly prevailing prices, by type, by market level, 27 Philippines and Metro Manila, 2003 – 2005 Table 17 Fertilizer: Average price, by grade, by month, Philippines, 2003-2005 28 Table 18 Actual vs. normal cumulative rainfall, by region, 29

Philippines, January-December 2004-2005

d g n l

ii RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Page 4: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

Weather Situation and Outlook1

October-December 2005

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP) have remained neutral. The weather system that affected the country were the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), tail end of cold front, northeast monsoon, ridge of the north pacific high pressure area, easterly wave, easterlies, active low-pressure area and the occurrence of four (4) tropical cyclones namely; typhoons “Nando” and “Pepeng” and tropical depressions “Ondoy” and “Quedan”. “Ondoy” made landfall over Baler, Aurora and Ilocos while “Pepeng” crossed over extreme northern Luzon and dissipated into a low-pressure area. “Quedan” brought floods to: Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Lucena, Sorsogon, Oriental Mindoro, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Palawan, southeast of Zamboanga City and the provinces of Camarines, Surigao, Agusan and Davao. Most parts of the country received near to above normal rainfall.

January-March 2006 The period covers the second half of the northeast monsoon season locally known as “Amihan”. The weather systems that are likely to affect the country are: the northeast monsoon, tail-end of cold front, easterlies, ridge of high pressure area and the possible occurrence of one (1) tropical cyclone which may possibly cross the country through the Visayas or northeastern Mindanao. Rainfall conditions are anticipated to be near to above normal over large portion of the country except for Ilocos Norte, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan and Davao. ____________________ 1Excerpt from PAGASA Press Release issued on Dec 27, 2005, Weather Situation and Outlook issued on Jan 2006, Dec and Nov 2005 and Seasonal Climate Outlook issued on January 2006.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK iii

Page 5: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

H i g h l i g h t s

Palay production in 2005 continued to be on the uptrend at 14.6 million metric tons, 0.7% higher than last year’s record high of 14.5 million metric tons. This was achieved despite the shrinkage in area harvested by more than 50 thousand hectares due to the effects of dry spell during the first semester of the year. This year’s high yield of 3.59 metric tons per hectare mitigated the impact of reduced harvest area. The increasing adoption of hybrid varieties and quality inbred seeds coupled with technology support by the government contributed to improved crop productivity. Corn, on the other hand, registered a reduced output of 5.3 million metric tons, 2.9% short of last year’s record of 5.4 million metric tons. Productivity slightly improved by 0.5% from its previous year level owing to increased use of good quality seeds. However, the 85 thousand hectares drop in area harvested was a major blow to the overall corn performance for the year. Most of the losses occurred during the 1st semester due to the effects of dry spell. Forecasts of palay and corn production for the 1st half of 2006 suggest positive growths with the recovery from last year’s dry spell during the 1st semester. Palay and corn performance for the initial half of 2006 looks promising given expected improved weather conditions.

P) he ge re nd

er ht o, of

as st le he

he

ec

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 1

Page 6: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

1.0 Palay and Corn Crop Estimates 1.1. PALAY Calendar Year 2005 Crop • Palay production for

calendar year 2005 posted a modest growth of 106 thousand metric tons, 0.7% over last year despite contraction in harvest area during the first semester mainly due to the mild but prolonged El Niño. The output increment resulted from improved yield per hectare, from 3.51 metric tons in 2004 to 3.59 metric tons in 2005. This was attributed to extensive use of hybrid and quality inbred seeds and technology support provided by the LGUs and the GMA Rice Program.

• This year’s 2nd semester production was boosted by the 4th quarter’s gain of 314

thousand metric tons, 5.6% up from 2004. Harvest area and yield for the quarter went up by 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively. These gains were mainly contributed by the increase of 5.1% in harvest area and 3.3% in yield in irrigated farms. In rainfed farms, harvest area contracted from last year’s hectarage but average yield improved from 2.87 to 2.92 metric tons per hectare. This was the result of wider adoption of quality seeds and better weather conditions after the dry spell. Substantial production increments for the period were achieved in Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, Western and Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and ARMM.

• Top producers for calendar

year 2005 were Central Luzon, Western Visayas, Cagayan V a l l e y , I l o c o s , a n d Soccsksargen. These regions contributed around 59% of the country’s total palay output.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 2

Fig. 2. 2005 Palay Top Producers

Central Luzon17%

Cagayan Valley13%

Western Visayas

12%Ilocos

9%Soccsksargen

7%

others42%

Fig.1. Palay: Production and Area Harvested, 2003-2005

YIELD2005- 3.592004- 3.512003- 3.37

12,75013,00013,25013,50013,75014,00014,25014,50014,750

2005 2004 2003

'000

MT

3,9403,9603,9804,0004,0204,0404,0604,0804,1004,1204,140

'000

Has

.

Production Area Harvested

Page 7: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

in nd

4 er by ed ed of al os

January-June 2006 Forecast • The first semester of 2006

posts a brighter outlook for palay crop. Increased area and improved yield in both irrigated and r a i n fed fa r ms a r e expected in anticipation o f b e t t e r w ea t h e r conditions and recovery from the drought-stricken 2005.

• Barring unforeseen conditions, output for the 1st half of 2006 may exceed 2005

performance by more than 5%. Harvest area may expand by about 5% while yield may improve by at least 1%.

• All regions except

Central Luzon expect production increases during the period. Harvest area and yield in m o s t r e g i o n s a r e anticipated to improve w i t h t h e l i k e l y availability of irrigation water, extensive use of hybrid and quality inbred seeds, continuous support from LGU, GMA-Rice programs and improved weather conditions.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Fig. 4. Palay: January-June 2006 Production Forecast

20062006 200520050

5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

January-March April-June

'000

MT

Fig. 3. Palay: January-June 2006 Forecast,and January-June 2004 & 2005 Final Estimates

YIELD2006- 3.642005- 3.602004- 3.50

5,8005,9006,0006,1006,2006,3006,4006,500

2006 2005 2004'0

00 M

T

1,6201,6401,6601,6801,7001,7201,7401,7601,780

'000

Has

.

Production Area Harvested

3

Page 8: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

1.2. CORN Calendar Year 2005 Crop • Overall corn production

for the year 2005 was estimated at 5.25 million metric tons. This was 2.9% less than the 2004 level because of the 3.4% contraction in harvest area. The bulk of decrease was noted during the initial half of the year due to adverse effects of dry spell in most parts of the country. There was contraction in harvest area by 12.1% compared to last year’s 1st semester hectarage. First semester yield also went down by 3.9% due to severe dry weather conditions that prevailed in most parts of the country coupled with high costs of fertilizer and other farm inputs.

• Although the 2nd semester output increased by 6.6%, this was not enough to

compensate for losses incurred during the 1st semester. Most of the 2nd semester’s increase was traced to the 3rd quarter production performance as many farmers advanced their cropping to take advantage of improved weather conditions.

• As a result of advance cropping in many areas, 4th quarter output fell by 61 thousand

metric tons from the 2004 level. Output further dropped with the floodings in Isabela and Cagayan and excessive rains in Batangas and Soccsksargen provinces. Rat infestation in Soccsksargen also contributed to the reduced production for the period.

• Top corn producers for

2005 were Soccsksargen, Nor thern Mindanao , Cagayan Valley, ARMM, Ilocos Region and Davao Region. They recorded around 74% of the country’s total production for the year.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 4

Fig. 5. Corn: Production and Area Harvested, 2003-2005

YIELD2005- 2.152004- 2.142003- 1.92

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

2005 2004 2003

'000

MT

2,3402,3602,3802,4002,4202,4402,4602,4802,5002,5202,540

'000

Has

.

Production Area Harvested

Fig. 6. 2005 Corn Top Producers

Soccsksargen18%

Northern Mindanao

18%

Cagayan Valley15%

ARMM12%

Ilocos6%

Davao Region6%

others25%

Page 9: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

% wn he

to ’s rs

nd in s.

he

January-June 2006 Forecast • Production for the 1st

semester of 2006 may reach 2.6 million metric tons, surpassing the 2005 output by around 33% wi th the expec ted expansion in area to be harvested by around 1 4 . 5 % a nd l i k e l y improvement in yield by 15.8%. Almost all regions fo r e se e p ro d u c t i o n recovery f rom the drought affected crop in 2005.

• Enhanced production is

expected for both the 1st and 2nd quarters of the year. Improved weather conditions, availability of good quality seeds coupled with financial and technical assistance from local benefactors and support coming from D A- LGU p r o gr a ms prompted farmers to increase plantings for the 1st quarter period. Also, farmers are highly optimistic of sustained favorable weather conditions towards the 2nd semester along with the continued use of good quality seeds.

• Only Central Luzon and Davao Region projected output decline for the period as

more farms are reported to have shifted to banana and cassava in Davao City and Davao Sur and to mongo, sweet potato and turnips in Tarlac. High cost of production inputs was reportedly the main reason for these crop shiftings. There were also farms reportedly left idle due to financial constraints.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Fig.7. Corn: January-June 2006 Forecast,and January-June 2004 & 2005 Final Estimates

YIELD2006- 2.562005- 2.212004- 2.30

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2006 2005 2004

'000

MT

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

'000

Has

.

Production Area Harvested

Fig. 8. Corn: January-June 2006 Production Forecast

20062006 20052005 0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

January-March April-June

'000

MT

5

Page 10: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

2.0 Rice and Corn Stocks 2.1 Rice Stock • The country’s December 1, 2005

total rice stock was estimated at 2.41 million metric tons, up by 6.7 and 0.1 percent over its month and year ago levels, respectively. The stock would last for 83 days.

• Household stock was assessed at

1.48 million metric tons, and commercial stock at 0.48 million metric tons, higher over their month ago levels by 8.3 and 16.7 percent, respectively. In contrast, NFA holdings dropped to 0.44 million metric tons or 6.7 percent below previous month’s level, but 35.3 percent above year ago level.

• Of the December 1 rice stock, 62.0 percent were with households, 18.0 and 20.0

percent were held in NFA depositories and commercial warehouses, respectively. 2.1 Corn Stock • The total corn stock as of December

1, 2005 was estimated at 227.4 thousand metric tons, lower by 20.7 and 10.4 percent from its month and year ago levels, respectively.

• Of the total corn stock, 53 percent

were with commercial warehouses while the remaining 47 percent were with households.

• Stock inventories from both household and commercial sectors dropped from their

month ago records by 22.3 and 19.3 percent, respectively. Likewise, compared to last year, household and commercial sector stocks went down by 4.3 and 15.5 percent, respectively.

• NFA reported 484 metric tons stock of corngrain by December 1, slightly lower

than previous month’s level.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 6

-

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Household Commercial NFA

MIL

LIO

N M

T This MonthLast MonthLast Year

Fig. 9. Rice stock as of December 1, 2005compared with those of last month and previous year

-20.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0140.0160.0

Household Commercial NFA

THO

USA

ND

MT

This Month

Last Month

Last Year

Fig. 10. Corn stock as of December 1, 2005compared with those of last month and previous

Page 11: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

er A ’s

0

ir to .5

r

3.0 Prices 3.1 Palay/Rice

• Prices a t a l l l evels rose

continuously to the third quarter from the opening of the year. Farmgate prices peaked in July, wholesale and retail prices in Au gus t . P r i ces des cend ed thereafter as fourth quarter harvest came in. Monthly prices this year showed consistent pattern as those of the last two years.

• The 2005 national average farmgate price per kilogram of palay reached P10.82, P1.91 (18%) and P1.65 (21%) above 2004 and 2003 prices. Average prices of rice at wholesale and retail levels were higher than in 2003 and 2004.

• At wholesale, average price of rice

was pegged at P20.94 per kilogram, 9.5% and 14.41% higher than the respective average prices in 2004 and 2003. The average retail price at P22.88 per kilogram was 8.8% over last year’s price and 13.3% over the 2003 quotation. Wholesale price of rice climbed from P19.59 in January to P22.20 in August while retail price levels rose from P21.51 to P23.91 for same period. Prices softened a bit in the succeeding months but were still higher than the 2004 and 2003 levels.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Fig. 11. Palay: Monthly farmgate prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

200320042005

Fig. 12. Rice: Monthly wholesale prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

24.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

200320042005

Fig. 13. Rice: Monthly retail prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

22.00

24.00

26.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

200320042005

7

Page 12: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

• In Metro Manila, 2005 average monthly prices of rice at wholesale escalated from P19.42 in January to P20.41 per kilogram in April. It mellowed to P20.32 per kilogram in May then went back to P20.41 per kilogram in June and barely moved thereafter until December. Average wholesale price was P20.21 per kilogram, P0.60 and P0.73 higher than the 2004 and 2003 levels, respectively.

• At retail, average price of rice in

Metro Manila went up from P21.51 in January to P22.62 per kilogram in June. Thereafter, monthly prices until December leveled at an average of P23.00 per kilogram. The average price per kilogram of P22.76 was P0.37 higher than the 2004 average of P22.39.

3.2 Corn • Average prices of both white and

yellow corn in all market levels at the national as well as in Metro Manila dropped from their 2004 levels.

• The 2005 average farmgate price of

yellow corn at P7.70 per kilogram was 9.7 percent lower than the 2004 level but 10.95 percent above that of 2003. Except for the last two months of the year, monthly prices were consistently lower than that of last year’s levels.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 8 Fig. 14 .Rice: Monthly wholesale prices,

Metro Manila, CY 2003-2005

17.50

18.0018.50

19.00

19.50

20.0020.50

21.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/Kg

.)

200320042005

Fig. 15. Rice: Monthly retail prices, Metro Manila, CY 2003-2005

20.00

20.50

21.00

21.50

22.00

22.50

23.00

23.50

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/Kg

.)

200320042005

Fig. 16. Yellow Corn: Monthly farmgate prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

4.005.006.007.008.009.00

10.0011.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

2003 2004 2005

Page 13: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

• White corn grain at farmgate was quoted higher in the first semester of 2005 but took a downturn in the next semester with its average price of P8.68, P0.45 per kilogram lower than the 2004 corresponding quotations. Said reduction in monthly prices was a result of the peak of supply coming from local production.

• The average price of yellow corn

grain at wholesale was P9.50 per kilogram, P0.65 below the average price in 2004. Compared to previous year’s quotations for same months, monthly prices for this year were consistently lower except for prices in January and December.

• At wholesale, except for February,

the first semester average monthly prices per kilogram of yellow corn grain were higher compared to same period in 2004. Price levels in the second semester, however, dipped which ranged from P0.64 to P2.17 per kilogram. Price per kilogram was lowest in November at P8.61 and highest in April at P10.38. The 2005 average wholesale price per kilogram was P9.57, 5.6% lower than last year.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Fig. 17. White Corn: Monthly farmgate prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/Kg

.)

2003 2004 2005

Fig. 18. Yellow Corn: Monthly wholesale prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

5.006.00

7.008.009.00

10.00

11.0012.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/Kg

.)

2003 2004 2005

Fig. 19. White Corn: Monthly wholesale prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

5.006.00

7.008.009.00

10.00

11.0012.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/Kg

.)

2003 2004 2005

9

Page 14: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

• In Metro Manila, the 2005 average wholesale price per kilogram of yellow corn grain of P8.97 was P1.41 lower compared to 2004. Except for the last quarter, prices in earlier months were consistently lower than in 2004. The lowest monthly wholesale price was recorded at P8.15 in February. This was P2.42 and P0.60 lower compared to prices in 2004 and 2003, respectively.

3.2 Fertilizer • Retail prices of all fertilizer grades for 2005 were generally higher but relatively

more stable than those of 2004 and 2003.

• Price of urea, the most expensive

fertilizer grade increased by P178.16 (24.5%) per bag from its 2004 average of P727.22 to P905.38 in 2005. Monthly price quotations were consistently above those of the previous two years. Highest price was recorded in July at P950.49 per bag, 36.4% and 72.7% higher than p r ices in 2004 and 2003 , respectively.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 10 Fig. 20. Yellow Corn: Monthly wholesale prices,

Metro Manila, CY 2003-2005

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

2003 2004 2005

Fig. 21. Urea: Monthly retail prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

2005 2004 2003

Page 15: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

• AMMOSUL (Ammonium sulfate), on the other hand, had the lowest monthly price per bag with an average of P534.41, up by P52.13 (10.8%) from previous year’s average of P482.28. It also recorded the least month-on-month price fluctuations at an average of P1.89 per bag.

• The 2005 retail price of complete

fertilizer averaged P771.44 per bag, 18% higher than its 2004 average of P653.00 per bag. Monthly prices during the first eight months continually rose from P718.82 in January to P807.90 in July but went down in the next four months.

• For AMMOPHOS (Ammonium

phosphate), average price this year hiked to P748.60 per bag from P626.67 in 2004. Monthly prices steadily increased from January to July but slowly decreased from August through December. The 2005 month ly p r ices were consistently above the 2004 and 2003 levels.

ly

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Fig. 23. Complete: Monthly retail prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

100200300400500600700800900

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

2005 2004 2003

Fig. 24. Ammophos: Monthly retail prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

100200300400500600700800900

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

2005 2004 2003

Fig. 22. Ammosul: Monthly retail prices, Phil., CY 2003-2005

75150225300375450525600

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(Pes

o/K

g.)

2005 2004 2003

11

Page 16: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

4.0 Rainfall • Abundant rainfall during the 4th quarter of 2005 was experienced in most

parts of the country after the dry spell. Total rainfall for the period amounted to 11,311 mm, 42.0% above last year’s same quarter precipitation and 8.6% above normal rainfall. All regions, except Southern Tagalog received more rain compared to last year.

• The total accumulated rainfall in 2005 was 5.0% more than what was

received in 2004 but still 9.7% below normal level. With the exception of Southern Tagalog, Ilocos, Central Mindanao, Central Luzon and CAR, the rest of the regions had more rains compared to that of last year. CARAGA had the highest rainfall amount of 2,970 mm. It also recorded the most significant increase of 41.1% compared to last year’s rainfall.

• For the whole year, all regions except ARMM, Bicol and Eastern Visayas

experienced below normal rainfall.

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 12

Fig 26. Normal level vs. 2004 & 2005 cumulative rainfall, by region

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

NCRCAR

Iloco

s

Cag. Vall

ey

C. Luzo

n

So. Tag

alog

Bicol

W. Visa

yas

C. Visa

yas

E. Visay

as

W. Mindan

ao

N. Mindan

ao

S. Mindana

o

C. Mindan

ao

CARAGA

ARMM

'000

mm

2005 2004 Normal

Fig. 25. January-September cumulative and October-December rainfall, 2004-2005

2005 2005 2004 2004 NormalNormal-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan-Sept Oct-Dec

'000

mm

Page 17: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

Table 1. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by quarter, Philippines, 2003-2005

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 13

Page 18: VOLUME 20 NO. 1 · The report also presents pertinent information on monthly prices of palay, rice, corn and fertilizer, rice and corn stocks inventory, and rainfall. Data on prices

Table 2. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by farm type, Philippines, 2003-2005

RICE & CORN SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 14

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Table 3. PALAY: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by farm type, Philippines, January-June 2004-2006

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Table 4. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by quarter,

by region, Philippines, 2004-2005

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Table 5. PALAY: Final crop estimates, by semester,

by region, Philippines, 2004-2005

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Table 6. PALAY: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by region, Philippines, January-June 2005-2006

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Table 7. CORN: Final crop estimates, by quarter, Philippines, 2003-2005

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Table 8. CORN: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by crop type, Philippines, 2003-2005

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Table 9. CORN: Final crop estimates and forecasts, by crop type, Philippines, January-June 2004-2006

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Table 10. CORN: Final crop estimates, by quarter, by region, Philippines, 2004-2005

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Table 11. CORN: Final crop estimates, by semester, by region, Philippines, 2004-2005

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Table 12. CORN: Final crop estimates and forecasts by region, Philippines, January-June 2005-2006

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Table 13. Rice stock as of December 1, 2005 vs. November 2005 and December 2004 stocks

Table 14. Corn stock as of December 1, 2005 vs. November 2005 and December 2004 stocks

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Table 15. PALAY/RICE: Monthly prevailing prices, by type, by market level, Philippines and Metro Manila, 2003-2005

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Table 16. CORN: Monthly prevailing prices, by type, by market level, Philippines and Metro Manila, 2003-2005

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Table 17. FERTILIZER: Average price, by grade, by month, Philippines, CY 2003-2005

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Table 18. Actual vs. normal cumulative rainfall, by region, Philippines, January-December, 2004-2005

Source: PAGASA

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Department of Agriculture BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

1184 Ben-lor Bldg., Quezon Avenue, Quezon City CROPS STATISTICS DIVISION, Cereals Statistics Section

371-20-67 [email protected]

http://www.bas.gov.ph