Voting III

4/3/2012

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– identify and explain the role of formal and

informal institutions and their effect on policy. – to understand and interpret the United States

Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas.

– to assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

Office Hours and Readings

• Chapter 4 (pp. 110-129)• Chapter 5

• Office Hours– Today 11-2– Wednesday 10-2

DETERMINING POLITICAL OPINION

America is Obsessed with Polling

• Why Polls– Raise issues– Gauge support– Get specific opinions

• Everyone Uses them– Candidates– Media– Elected officials

The GOP

What is Sampling?

• selecting a representative part of a population

• To determine parameters of the whole population.

The Concept of Sampling• Blood Tests

• Food Tests

The Practicality of Sampling

• Time

• Money

• Size

How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent 200 Million?

• Responses Cancel each other out

• No New opinions are added

PROBLEMS OF SAMPLING

No Sample is Perfect

• All samples have error

• Large Samples= Less Error

All Voters< Registered Voters< Likely Voters

Question Bias

• Leading Questions

• Double Barreled Questions

Liars

• Socially Acceptable Questions

• Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of the Schoolyard– Don't tattle – Always make fun of those different from you. – Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone

feels exactly the same way you do.

Always Check

• Who sponsored the poll

• How they got the sample

• How big was the sample

IS GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVE TO PUBLIC OPINION

Do they Listen?

• Government responds to opinion 2/3 of the time

• Sometimes they do not listen to public opinion

Why Not?

• General vs. Intense opinion

• Voting vs. general public

• Opinion is only one form of participation

Opinions can change quickly

We Give answers to anything

We Know Why We Vote

BUT WHO DO WE VOTE FOR?

Very Simple

PARTY IDENTIFICATIONThe Long Term Factor

Party ID

• Psychological attachment to one of the parties

• Long Term Factor

• Best Predictor of Voting

• Influences other short-term factors

Cleveland Rocks

Party ID Rocks

2008 Vote by Party ID

The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008

• Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain

• There are more Democrats in the electorate

• Obama wins

ISSUE VOTINGThis is hard

Issue Voting is Hard

• We are clueless

• Too many issues

• We don’t trust or understand policy

Easy/Single Issue Voting

Most Important Issues in 2008

Retrospective Analysis

• Looking back at the economy

• Easier to do if there is an incumbent

The Economy

• The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy

Economics

Economics

CANDIDATE APPRAISALSWe Vote for Who We Like

Party Image

• Impacts our views of the candidate

• Very important for prospective voting

• McCain has a terrible party image in 2008

The Republican Brand

The Third Term

Retrospective voting on Bush

• Bush is Unpopular

McCain Vs. Bush

• In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush

• In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

Candidate Image

• Try to create your own

• Use issues to your advantage

• Don’t Let the Media create one for you

Hope and Change

• A message that worked

• It meant everything and nothing at the same time

Change

• Randy Marsh on

– Change

– Change

Hope as a message

Change

Bad Images

THE ELECTION OF 2010

The Results

The Nationalized Election

• National factors trumped local factors for the third time

• This time around, these factors favored the GOP

• This Hurts Incumbents

Party ID Rules the Day

People do not like Congress

Issues and 2010

The Issues of 2010

THE ECONOMYThe Primary Issue

A Referendum on the Economy

Unemployment

Health Care Opinion Remained Divided

A Referendum on Obama

THE TEA PARTYThe X factor in 2010

The Tea Party Movement

• Unique in that they do not want anything from government

• Very Motivated

• Angry at Government

The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

The Tea party was a Popular Movement

With Motivated Voters on Election Day

BETTING ON OBAMAThe odds in 2012

Campaign Finance

• $1,000,000,000

• Independent Expenditures as Well

• Any Republican must get at least 2/3 of this

The Electoral College

Popular on the Left

• Strong Support Among Democrats

• Very popular among key constituencies

• Policies are popular, and he is personally popular

Overall Popularity Close To 50%

Unemployment is Lower

GDP Growth

Figure 9.4 Presidential vote by income growth, 1948–2008

For the GOP to win, they need a candidate who can expand the

Republican Map

SOME NATIONS LOVE TO VOTEVoting in a Comparative Perspective

Why so high elsewhere?

• Compulsory voting

• Fewer Elections

• PR systems and MMD

Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA

• Easier To Register

• A National two-party system

• A better-educated population

Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of

Participation

TURNOUT: THE GOOD AND BAD

Why Low turnout is bad

• Groups who do not vote, get used by those that do

• Voting levels the playing field

• Voting is essential for democracy to succeed

Why Low Turnout is not that bad

• Low Turnout is actually a good thing

• People are not voting for the wrong candidate

• Stability in the System

• Voting is only one way of participation

Ways to Increase Turnout

• Continue to Lower Costs– Mandatory voting– Same Day Registration– Mail and Internet voting– Weekend Voting– Holiday Voting