vr voice games & entertainment extravaganza 7/24/17 keynote
TRANSCRIPT
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VR/AR 101Evolution & Revolution
Charlie Fink
Contributor, Forbes
Contributing Editor, VR Voice
@charliefink
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About Me• Contributor, Forbes , Huff Po,
VR Voice, Cinematic VR, etc.
• Entrepreneur (2 for 4 on startups)
• Producer of 30 Theater Productions
• President, AG Interactive 00-04
• SVP, America Online 95-99
• EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95
• VP, Disney 85-92
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40 Years of Disruption
• Audio Cassettes
• Video Cassette Recorders (VCRs)
• Personal Computers
• Cellular Phones
• The Internet
• Smart Phones (handheld computing)
• AR & VR
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Things I Know Are True
• AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing
• Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster
• The killer app is other people
• Everyone overestimates the short term and underestimates the long term
• Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once
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Change Happens Very Slowly And Then All At Once
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VR And Popular Culture
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Tron (1982)
• asdfa
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Augmented Reality
1977 – Star Wars
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The Terminator
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The Matrix
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Ready Player One, March 30, 2018
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Definitions
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PHYSICAL REALITY DIGITAL REALITY
The World According to Microsoft
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MIXED REALITY
DIGITAL REALITY PHYSICAL REALITY
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Mixed Reality Spectrum
Windows Mixed Reality – Holographic headsets (see-through)
Windows Mixed Reality – Immersive headsets (occluded)
VR todayAR today
PHYSICAL REALITY
DIGITAL REALITY
MIXED REALITY (MR)
Mixed reality blends the physical and digital worlds to produce new environments where physical and digital objects co-exist and can be interacted with as if all of them were real.
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AR (MR) Covers Most of The Spectrum• Current Smart Phones
• Filters
• Enhanced 3D Handheld• Depth sensing, multiple cameras
• SLAM
• Snapdragon, Tango
• Headmounted AR• Hololens (Holographic Computing)
• ODG
• Meta
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Haptics & Mixed Reality
• Sound
• Touch• Leap Motion
• Locomotion•Axon
• Smell
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Immersion
Presence
Cell - AR Cell - ODG R8 - Hololens - Meta2 - Standalone - Gear - Rift - Vive - Free Roam
Immersion and Presence
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A Short History Lesson
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Man Has Always Sought Presence in Other Worlds
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Sutherland Display
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtwZXGprxag
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Virtuality, 1992
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2000 - 2012, The Dark Years
• Failed Economic Models
• Product Failures• Virtual Boy Recall
• Insurmountable Technical Hurdles• Graphics Cards
• Affordable HMDs
• No Development Ecosystem• No content, peripherals
• Shift of Capital & Interest to Internet, Mobile
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Palmer Lucky
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Oculus Rift
Sony Morpheus
HTC/Valve Vive
2016 - Rise of Consumer HMDs
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Form Factors
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Time Shifting to Screens Diminishes Presence
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The Always On Camera, The New Mobile Interface
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AR HMD Computing On Market Now (Q3 2017) Is For Developers• Hololens - $3,000 developer edition, available now
• ODG R-8 – Under $1,000, Consumer Offered by Megu (China) Q4
• Meta 2 – $1,000 developer edition, available now
• Google Standalone VR (HTC, Lenovo) - >$500, Q4
• Kopin, Epson, Lenovo – Enterprise Focused
• Zapbox Cardboard - $50
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Just In Time for Christmas
Disney Star Wars AR Zapbox Cardboard AR Mira Prism
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This Fall: Microsoft Windows 10 MR
$300 Dual Use Devices due from Acer, Dell, etc.
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Daydream Standalone
• Wearable Android• Inside Out Cameras• Dual Use• Daydream Store• Plug and Play• Untethered• Coming this Xmas• HTC, Lenovo, other OEMs• Priced Under $500*
Vive Standalone
LenovoStandalone
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By the End of 2017 It Will Be Raining HMDs
•Google Standalone (HTC & Lenovo) $500 - $750•Playstation VR $400•Window MR Acer, Dell $300•Disney Star Wars $200•Mira Prism $100•Gear VR $75•Zapbox $50
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2019, The Real Competition Begins
• Snapchat Specs 2.0
• Facebook “Pacific”
•Magic Leap
•Apple
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Meanwhile, Here in The Present
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Pokemon GO..
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AR Today • Spatial Mapping, Depth (SLAM)
• Google Tango • Enables New & Improved Apps
• Target based AR
• Filters• Snap, Facebook, Lumyer, Masqurade, MS Creator
• Art
• Toys• Holotats• Holocube• Hologrid Monster
• Games• PokemonGO• Phantogeist
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Mobile VR Sales Dwarf VR Sales
•Google Cardboard – 20 M
• Samsung GearVR – 6.5 M
•Playstation VR – 1 M
•HTC Vive – 600,000
•Oculus Rift – 350,000
•Google Daydream – 200,000
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The Cash is in the Hands
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• Microsoft – Hololens, Windows 10 MR
• Apple – iPhone 8, ARKit, VR Peripheral
• Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store, “Pacific” AR HMD
• Google – Cardboard, Daydream, Stand Alone VR (Tango/World Sense)
• Samsung –Gear VR
• Sony - Playstation VR
The Big Guys Are Making Big Bets
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7xgrowth of market forecasted through 2020
Source: IDC, Worldwide Quarterly Augmented and Virtual Reality Headset Tracker, 3Q16
196,722 1,937,954
10,252,907
22,672,192
37,674,548
54,003,645
75,972,265
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HMDs shipments to reach ~76M units by 2020 growing at 65% CAGR
These new experiences are poised for rapid growth
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• Personal Computer• Online Services (email)
• Shopping
• Social Media
• Smart Phones• Messaging
• Photography
• Maps
• Music/Media
Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps
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AR’s Killer Apps
• The Camera is the Interface• Directions
• Messaging
• Media
• New things we can do• Spatial Mapping
• Telepresence
• Object Recognition
• Facial Recognition
• Remote Experts
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Enterprise Goes First
• Military
• Design & Construction
• Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts
• Medical• Monitor Consolidation
• Heads Up Display
• Tele surgery
• Sales & Marketing
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Path to Success for Consumers• Cost, Ease of Use, Price
• Killer Apps• Social/Telepresence
• Optics/Field of View
• Ergonomics
• Haptic Solutions• Hands
• Voice
• Ring Controller
• Virtual Keyboard
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A Bit About Content
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Platform Builders Underwrite Best Content
• Fund developers before platform reaches scale
•Oculus 250 M investment in content
•HTC ViveX Venture Fund
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360 Video – The Tip of the Spear
• Pro•News• Entertainment• Sports
• Consumer• Travel• Sports
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Mobile Platforms for VR Are Not Very Good
• Immersive, but without freedom/agency• Diversion over functionality by necessity
• The DW Griffith of 360 has not yet arrived
• Terrible optics• Screen door effect
• Latency •Bandwidth related
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The Epic Battle For Social VR
• Second Life
• Sansar
• High Fidelity
• AltspaceVR
• Rec Room
• Oculus Rooms
Who Will Own The Home Page
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Case Study: HTC, Playing the Long Game
• Address the Exposure Problem
• Vrcades, Franchise Titles
• Nurture Developers and Relationships
• Viveport
• Develop technology ecosystem via Venture Investments
• Tools, Haptics, Social, Education, Sports, Entertainment, Games, etc.
• Flexibility
• Google Tango Standalone
• Apple ARKit
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Companies
• sdfa
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• sdas
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Don’t Call Them VRcades
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The Future In The Public Square?• New Vrcades
• IMAX VR• Viveport• Tick Tock Unlock
• Free Roam VR• The Void • Zero Latency• Dreamscape
• VR LBEs in the 90s• The mundane reality of retail
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323 VRcades - And Counting! • Two Bit Circus
• Nomadic VR
• VR World
• House of VR
• Toronto VR Games
• The Portal
• Colony VR
• Virtreal
• VRPlayin
• Nearby Planet VR
*Source: VRNish.com
*
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Predictions for July, 2018
•Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point• “Trough of Disillustion” for AR
• Lower cost HMDs
•Phone Replacement Cycle Accelerates
•Apple AR in iPhone 8
•More Compelling Apps Appear
•Magic Leap Comes Out
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Gartner Hype Cycle (2016)
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Predictions for June, 2023
•Wearable computing, MR commonplace
• The Killer AR app will be telepresence (social)
•Killer VR app is cinematic social Westworld
• Self-driving trucks, cars, common
•Automation & AI growth increase unemployment
•Wealth Gap at dangerous, historic levels
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Thank You! @CharlieFink