vulnerability and adaptation assessments hands-on training workshop human health sector
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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop Human Health Sector. Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group. Outline. Qualitative example WHO Inter-R egional Workshop on Health Impacts from Climate Variability and Change in the Hindu Kush- Himalayan Region - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On
Training WorkshopHuman Health Sector
Kristie L. Ebi, Exponent Health Group
Outline
Qualitative exampleWHO Inter-Regional Workshop on Health Impacts from Climate Variability and Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region Mukteshwar, India 3-7 October 2005
Quantitative exampleWHO Global Burden of DiseaseSudan Initial National Communication
Steps in Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation
Describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases Describe the association between climate and disease
outcomes Identify and describe current strategies, policies, and
measures to reduce that burden Review the health implications of the potential impact
of climate variability and change on other sectors Estimate future potential health impacts using
scenarios of climate change Identify additional adaptation measures to reduce
potential negative health effects
Climate-Sensitive Health Outcomes Mountain Regions
Heatwaves Flood deaths/morbidity
Glacial lake floods Flash Riverine (plain)
Vector-borne disease Malaria Japanese Encephalitis Kala-azar Filariasis Dengue
Water-borne diseases Water scarcity, quality Drought-related food insecurity
Current Burden of Disease in Bhutan
Flood deaths/morbidity Glacial lake floods 3 Flash 3
Vector-borne disease Malaria 1 Kala-azar 1 Filariasis 1
Water-borne diseases 2 Water scarcity, quality 2 Drought-related food insecurity 1
Particularly Vulnerable Populations
Glacial lake floods: Elderly, poor, nomadic, children, disabled or infirm, women, independently living ethnic groups in remote areas
Flash: Everyone in the path of the floods Riverine (plains): Elderly, poor, nomadic,
children, the disabled or sick, women, and people in poor housing, coastal areas, institutions, or on isolated islands
Steps in Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation
Describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases Describe the association between climate and disease
outcomes Identify and describe current strategies, policies, and
measures to reduce that burden Review the health implications of the potential impact
of climate variability and change on other sectors Estimate future potential health impacts using
scenarios of climate change Identify additional adaptation measures to reduce
potential negative health effects
Adaptation Options
Climate-sensitive diseases are a problem today with programs in place to try to reduce their burden
Current programs will need to be revised and augmented to cope with climate change-related risks New programs may be needed to
address changes in the geographic range of some vector-borne diseases
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WHO Global Burden of Disease Approach
McMichael AJ, Campbell-Lendrum D, Kovats S, Edwards S, Wilkinson P, Wilson T, et al. 2004 Global Climate Change. In: Comparative Quantification of
Health Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease due to Selected Risk Factors. Eds. Ezzati M, Lopez A,
Rodgers A, Murray C. P 1543-1649. WHO, Geneva
Data Sources
WHO World Health Report Chapter 20 of the Global Burden of Disease
Study Output from MAGICC-SenGen
WHO World Health Report Annexes
1. Basic indicators for all WHO member states
2. Deaths by cause, gender, and mortality stratum for WHO regions
3. DALYs
4. Healthy life expectancy
5. National level indicators
6. National health accounts
7. Millennium Development Goals
WHO South-East Asia Region
B = countries with low child and low adult mortality Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand
D = countries with high child and high adult mortality Bangladesh, Bhutan, Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Timor-Leste
Diseases Included in WHR
Diarrheal diseases In 2002, worldwide there were 1,798,000
deaths or 3.2% of all deaths Burden in SEAR-B was 41,000 deaths Burden in SEAR-D was 563,000 deaths
Malaria Schistosomiasis Dengue Protein-calorie malnutrition
GBD Health Outcomes Considered
Outcome Class Incidence / prevalence
Outcome
Direct effects of heat and cold
Incidence Cardiovascular disease deaths
Foodborne & waterborne diseases
Incidence Diarrhoea episodes
Vector-borne diseases Incidence Malaria cases
Natural disasters Incidence
Incidence
Deaths due to unintentional injuries
Other unintentional injuries
Risk of malnutrition Prevalence Non-availability of recommended daily calorie intake
McMichael et al., 2004
WHO Global Burden of Disease Exposure-Response Relationships
5% increase in diarrheal incidence per degree C increase in temperature
Central, low, and high relative risks estimated relative to baseline climate
For example, for 2030, the central estimate for unmitigated emissions for SEAR-B was 1.00 and for SEAR-D was 1.09
Calculating Potential Future Disease Burdens Using
Baseline burden of disease Relative risk increase per temperature
change Output from MAGICC-SenGen
Estimate qualitatively how much adaptation could decrease disease burden
Sudan National Communication
Using an Excel spreadsheet, modeled malaria based on relationships described in MIASMA
Calculated monthly changes in transmission potential for the Kordofan Region for the years 2030-2060, relative to the period 1961-1990 using the IPCC IS92A scenario, simulation results of HADCM2, GFDL, and BMRC, and MAGICC/SCENGEN
Sudan – Projected Increase in Transmission Potential of Malaria in 2030
Sudan – Projected Increase in Transmission Potential of Malaria in 2060
Sudan – Malaria Projections
Malaria in Kordofan Region could increase significantly during the winter months in the absence of effective adaptation measures The transmission potential during these months is
75% higher than without climate change Under HADCM2, the transmission potential in
2060 is more than double baseline Transmission potential is projected to decrease
during May-August due to increased temperature
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Thank you