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Vulnerability Assessment of 5 Green Aimags: Case of Uvurkhangai & Arkhangai
M.Altanbagana, T.Chuluun & B.Suvdantsetseg
National Development Institute of Mongolia Institute for Sustainable Development, NUM
Project title: Vulnerability Assessment for Social-Ecological Systems and Policy Recommendation for
Green Development Policy for 5 aimags at Local Level NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
INSTITUTE OF MONGOLIA
Khovd, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Khentii and Bulgan
Tokyo Jan 13-‐15, 2015
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENTAL, GREEN DEVELOPMENT & TOURISM, MONGOLIA
Contents
• Research Objec,ve & Study Areas • Indicators & Design of Vulnerability Assessment • Result of Vulnerability Assessment & Analysis at Sum Level (Case of Uvurhangai, Arhangai aimags)
• Ecological vulnerability • Social vulnerability • Integrated Vulnerability Assessment of Social-‐Ecological Syatems
• Dissocia,on & coopera,on
Research Objec1ve
Analysis & Vulnerability Assessment • Analysis for indicators of Ecological and Social systems
• RelaJon analyze for vulnerability indicators
• Ecological & Social Vulnerability Assessment by each sums of 5 aimags
• Integrated assessment for vulnerability analyze of social-‐ecological systems in sum level
Analysis of local Development Plan and Budget each 5 aimags and Sum level • To idenJfy the Green development Criterion for local level
• Analyze of Local Development Plan by Green development Criterion
• Analyze of Local Budget by Green development Criterion
• Field survey in selected sums
Policy Recommendation of Green Development Policy for 5 aimags • Syntheses and Conclusion • Result of Vulnerability Assessment • Analysis of local Development Plan and Budget
• Result of field survey
Sec$on I Sec$on II Sec$on III
Study areas: Khovd, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai, Khentii and Bulgan Indicators for selec$ng sums Ø Ecological region Ø Popula>on Ø Remoteness Ø Infrastructure
Total 86 sums of 5 aimags
Uvurkhangai aimag have 19 sums
General schema of Vulnerability assessment
Integrated vulnerability assessment of social-ecological systems
NDVI
Poverty
Desertification
Drought & Zud
Livestock loss
Environmental indicators
Combine to indicators of ecological
Combine to indicators of social
Surface water loss
Social indicators
Another variables
Unemployment
Migration
Another variables
Ecological indicators
Level № Indicators Unit of
Indicators
Date Method of Combine
Sum level
1 Dougth, Zud index Index 1995-‐2013
Geometric mean
2 VegetaJon index (NDVI), May to Oct average Index 1998-‐2013
3 DeserJficaJon Percent 2010 4 Surface water loss Percent 2011
5 Pasture use index Index 1990-‐2013
6 Land degradaJon (wind erosion, soil Loss) Percent 2010
7 Prepared forage and hay cu`ng (per capita livestock) kg/sheep.unit 2011-‐2013
8 Livestock loss Percent 1990-‐2013
Aimag level
9 Air polluJon mg/m3 2004-‐2013 ArithmeJc mean 10 Water polluJon mg/l 2011-‐2013
11 Soil polluJon mg/kg 2011-‐2013
Indicators of Social systems at sum level
Level № Indicators Unit of Indicators Date Method of Combine
Sum level
1 Crop products (per capita person) kg/person 2011-‐2013
ArithmeJc mean
2 MigraJon, PopulaJon changes (growth & decrease) Percent 1989-‐2000, 2000-‐2012
3 Unemployment Percent 2012-‐2013
4 Poverty Percent 2000, 2010
5 Bank saving (per capita person) tug/person 2010-‐2013
6 Livestock risk based on livestock loss during drought and zud years Ган-‐зудын эрсдлийг тооцсон нэг хүнд ногдох мал
Sheep.unit/person
2013
7 Livestock per capita person Sheep.unit/person
2002-‐2013
8 Number of Doctor and medical nurse (per capita person) Percent 2002-‐2013
9 In-‐paJents number in hospital Percent 2002-‐2013
Uvurkhangai aimag: Some Result of Analysis and Vulnerability assessment
Dynamics of drought, zud and integrated drought-‐zud in Uvurkhangai aimag
1.82
0.20 0.93
4.81 4.78
-‐2.82
1.68
3.15 2.12
-‐0.42
1.03
y = -‐0.06x + 1.85 -‐4.00 -‐3.00 -‐2.00 -‐1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Drou
ght ind
ex
years
In dynamic of drought index from 1995 to 2013 when the highest value was 4.81 in 2000 and 4.78 in 2001.
2.84
14.54
3.72
-‐1.91
6.52
-‐4.37
-‐0.15 2.13
y = -‐0.49x + 7.36
-‐10.00
-‐5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Zud inde
x
years
If zud index shown minus value that means observed more zud. In dynamic of zud index from 1995 to 2013 when the lowest value of zud index was -1.91 in 2000 and -4.37 in 2010.
Drought Zud
Integrated drought-‐zud
-‐1.02 -‐3.87
6.71
2.24
-‐3.23
6.29
-‐0.26 3.30
-‐1.11
y = 0.43x -‐ 5.51
-‐20.00
-‐15.00
-‐10.00
-‐5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Drou
ght-‐zud index
years
In dynamic of drought-zud index from 1995 to 2013 when the highest value of drought-zud index was 6.71 in 2000 and 6.29 in 2010.
Livestock loss, Uvurkhangai aimag
2.12 2.83 1.11 3.42
0.82
26.33
14.87
0.54 0.95 5.63
45.97
1.01 0.61
0.00
6.00
12.00
18.00
24.00
30.00
36.00
42.00
48.00
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Livestock loss, %
, sheep.unit
4.02
4.49
4.66
5.03
5.07
5.19
5.31
5.64
5.81
6.28
6.44
6.60
6.62
6.75
6.87
7.10
7.47
8.51
9.25
4.00 5.50 7.00 8.50 10.00
Богд Нарийн тээл
Хайрхандулаан Баруунбаян-‐Улаан
Баянгол Гучин ус
Бүрд Бат-‐Өлзий
Төгрөг Уянга Сант
Хужирт Өлзийт
Зүйл Хархорин
Баян-‐Өндөр Тарагт
Арвайхээр Зүүнбаян-‐Улаан
Livestock loss, 1990-‐2013, %, sheep.unit
Dynamic of livestock loss for 1990-‐2013 at aimag level
Livestock loss by each sums, average of 1990-‐2013
In dynamic of livestock loss from 1990 to 2013 when high value was 26.3% in 2000 and 45.9 in 2010.
Khujirt
Kharhorin
Uyanga
Bat-‐Ulzii
Khairhandulaan
Taragt
Ulziit
Nariinteel
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Esunzuil
Burd
Bayan-‐Undur
Arvaiheer
Sant
Bayangol
Tugtug
Guchin-‐Us
Bogd
Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
Analysis between drought-‐zud index and livestock loss in Uvurkhangai aimag level
1.03 1.77
26.33
18.86 14.87
3.51 5.63
2.74
45.97
1.01 0.61
-‐1.02 -‐2.79
6.71
2.24
-‐7.73
5.33
6.29
-‐0.26
3.30
-‐1.11
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 -‐20.00
-‐15.00
-‐10.00
-‐5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Livestock loss, %
, sheep.unit
years
Drou
ght-‐zud index
Малын зүй бус хорогдол, % Ган-‐зудын индекс, ∆S
y = 0.14x2 + 2.06x + 5.33 R² = 0.53, r=0.73
-‐10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
-‐20.00 -‐15.00 -‐10.00 -‐5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00
Livestock loss, %
, sheep.unit
Drought-‐zud index
Drought-‐zud index Livestock loss, %
The results of dynamical analysis shown that drought-zud index were increased and the number of livestock loss were increased. Correlation coefficient was 0.73 for 1995-2013.
2.01 3.65 4.46 5.33 5.51
6.91 7.53 8.11 8.21 8.28 9.49 9.96 10.35 10.47 11.49 12.11
13.60 17.02
18.46
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00
Богд Баян-‐Өндөр
Бүрд Гучин-‐Ус Баянгол
Уянга Баруунбаян-‐Улаан
Төгрөг Хайрхандулаан
Нарийнтээл Өлзийт
Есөнзүйл Хужирт Тарагт Сант
Арвайхээр Бат-‐Өлзий
Зүүнбаян-‐Улаан Хархорин
Prepared forage and hay cuRng, kg/sheep.unit
Prepared forage and hay cuBng at sum level
Prepared forage and hay cuRng per capita livestock for average of 2011-‐2013 (kg/
sheep.unit)
Khujirt
Kharhorin
Uyanga
Bat-‐Ulzii
Khairhandulaan
Taragt
Ulziit Nariinteel
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Esunzuil
Burd Bayan-‐Undur
Arvaiheer Sant
Bayangol
Tugtug
Guchin-‐Us
Bogd
Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
VegetaDon index (NDVI), Uvurkhangai
0.29
0.24
0.22
0.28
0.23 0.25 0.24
0.27
0.30
y = 0.002x + 0.24
0.20
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.30
0.32
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
NDV
I
years
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.18
0.18
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.26
0.30
0.33
0.33
0.36
0.37
0.39
0.46
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50
Богд
Баруунбаян-‐
Төгрөг
Гучин-‐ус
Баянгол
Сант
Нарийнтээл
Хайрхандулаан
Тарагт
Баян-‐Өндөр
Өлзийт
Есөн зүйл
Бүрд
Зүүнбаян-‐Улаан
Уянга
Хархорин
Хужирт
Бат-‐Өлзий
NDVI, average of 1998-‐2013
Khujirt Kharhorin Uyanga
Bat-‐Ulzii
Khairhandulaan
Taragt
Ulziit
Nariinteel
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Esunzuil Burd
Bayan-‐Undur
Sant Bayangol
Tugtug
Guchin-‐Us
Bogd Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
Dynamic of NDVI for 1998-2013
NDVI by sums, average of 1998-2013
Surface water distribuDon and dry-‐up in sums by ecological regions, Uvurkhangai aimag
Source: Surface water count data . 2011. Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism, Mongolia
Lake River Spring Well Mineral water
Dried Total
F o r e s t steppe
Steppe
Dry steppe
Gobi
Khujirt Kharhorin Uyanga Bat-‐Ulzii
Khairhandulaan Taragt Ulziit
Nariinteel Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Esunzuil Burd
Bayan-‐Undur Arvaiheer
Sant Bayangol
Tugtug Guchin-‐Us
Bogd Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
DeserDficaDon & land degradaDon of Uvurkhangai aimag
Source: Desertification Atlas. 2010. Geoecology Institute, Mongolian Academy of Science & Environmental Information Center, National Agency of Meterlogy and Environmental Monitoring.
PopulaDon changes at sum level, Uvurkhangai
• National level (NL) − Average annual
growth was 1.59% from 2000 to 2012.
• How changes population in Sums, if
<0 −> Decreased 0 – NL −> Normal growth NL < −> Mechanical growth
• Population changes form 2000 to 2012 (total 19 sums) − 16 sums was
Decreased − 1 sum was Normal
growth (Bat-Ulzii) − 2 sums was
Mechanical growth (Uyanga, Arvaiheer)
a). Average annual growth in sums, 1989-2000
Legend Sum center Sum boundary Popula,on, % -‐1.63 < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.34 normal growth 1.34 < 4.00 mechanical growth
b). Average annual growth in sums, 2000-2012
Legend Sum center Sum boundary Popula,on, % -‐2.93 < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.59 normal growth 1.59 < 3.20 mechanical growth
Population changes form 1989 to 2000 (total 19 sums) • 2 sums was
Decreased (Khujirt, Burd)
• 3 sums was Normal growth (Zuunbayan-Ulaan, Arvaiheer, Taragt)
• 14 sums was Mechanical growth
National level (NL) − Average annual growth was 1.34% from 1989 to 2000.
How changes population in Sums, if <0 , −> Decreased 0 – NL, −> Normal growth NL <, −> Mechanical growth
Analysis for populaDon changes and livestock loss by sums
Arvaiheer
Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
Bat-‐Ulzii
Bayangol Bayan-‐undur Bogd
Burd
Guchin-‐Us Esunzuil
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Nariinteel
Ulziit Sant
Taragt
Tugrug
Uyanga
Khairhandulaan
Kharhorin Hujirt
-‐3.20
-‐1.60
0.00
1.60
3.20
4.80
0.10 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.28
Averag
e an
nual growth in su
ms, 2000-‐2012
Total livestock loss, million.head, 2000-‐2012
Population normal growth (0÷1.59%) Population decreased (<0)
Population methanical growth (1.59%<)
b). Average annual growth in sums, 2000-2012
Legend Sum center Sum boundary Popula,on, % -‐2.93 < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.59 normal growth 1.59 < 3.20 mechanical growth
Spatial relation for average annual population changes and total livestock loss by sums.
This analysis showing that total livestock loss increased when population number were deceased from 2000-2012.
• National level (NL) • Average annual growth is 1.14% from 2002 to 2013
• How changes population in Sum center and remote countryside area, if
• Decreased <0 • Normal growth 0 - 1.14 • Mechanical growth 1.14 <
• Sum center population • 7 sum centers was Decreased • 3 sum centers was Normal growth • 9 sum centers was Mechanical growth
• Remote countryside area population (without Arvaiheer sum of aimag center)
• 13 sums are Decreased • 3 sums are Normal growth • 2 sums are Mechanical growth
Remote countryside population (Herders) are decreased and more inconstant
Total 19 sums
PopulaDon changes by locaDon, Uvurkhangai Average annual growth by sum center and remote countryside in sums, 2000-2012
Legend Sum center Sum boundary Sum center popula,on, % < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.14 normal growth 1.59 < mechanical growth Remote countryside popula,on, % < 0.00 decreased 0.00 − 1.14 normal growth 1.14 < mechanical growth
Poverty at sum level, 2000, Uvurkhangai
15.50 25.50 25.50 27.00 27.00 27.00 27.00 27.90 27.90 28.80 29.10 29.10 30.10 30.10 30.10 33.30 34.60 35.50
42.80
14 19 24 29 34 39 44
Арвайхээр Бүрд
Баян-‐Өндөр Тарагт
Баянгол Төгрөг Сант
Өлзийт Есөн зүйл
Зүүнбаян-‐Улаан Гучин-‐Ус
Баруунбаян-‐Улаан Хайрхандулаан
Нарийнтээл Уянга Богд
Бат-‐Өлзий Хужирт
Хархорин
Poverty, %, 2000 (2002/2003)
Poverty at Na>onal average 36.1
Rural poverty at Na>onal level 43.4
Source: Mongolia Census-based Poverty Map in 2000: Region, aimag and sun level. 2009. National Statistical Office, Mongolia & UNDP
Spatial relation for poverty and total livestock loss by sums.
Khujirt Kharhorin
Uyanga
Bat-‐Ulzii
Khairhandulaan
Taragt
Ulziit
Nariinteel
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan Esunzuil
Burd Bayan-‐Undur
Arvaiheer
Sant
Bayangol Tugtug
Guchin-‐Us
Bogd
Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
Poverty by sums, Uvurkhangai. 2000
Arvaiheer
Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
Bat-‐Ulzii
Bayangol
Bayan-‐Undur
Bogd
Burd
Guchunis
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Nariinteel
Esunzuil [CELLREF]
Tugrug
Uyanga Hairhandulaan
Harhorin
Khujirt
y = 138.65x + 20.367 R² = 0.20, r=0.45
15
19
23
27
31
35
39
43
0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1
Poverty, % , 2000, (2002/2003) он
Total livestock loss, million.head, 2000-‐2003
Poverty at sum level, 2010, Uvurkhangai
41.1 42.4
44.4 44.7 44.7 45.1 45.8 45.8 46.4 46.7 46.7 46.7 47.2
48 48 48
50.1 50.1
52.9
40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
Арвайхээр Хархорин
Зүүнбаян-Улаан Бүрд
Баян-Өндөр Хужирт Өлзийт
Есөн зүйл Тарагт Баянгол Төгрөг Сант
Бат-Өлзий Хайрхандулаан
Нарийнтээл Уянга
Гучин-Ус Баруунбаян-Улаан
Богд
Poverty, %, 2010
Rural poverty at National level 47.8
Poverty at National average 39.2
Khujirt
Kharhorin
Uyanga
Bat-‐Ulzii Khairhandulaan
Taragt
Ulziit
Nariinteel
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Esunzuil
Burd Bayan-‐Undur
Arvaiheer
Sant
Bayangol Tugtug
Guchin-‐Us
Bogd Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
Poverty by sums, Uvurkhangai. 2000
Bank saving by sums, Uvurkhangai
Bank saving, million.tug, average of 2010-2013
Average annual growth of Bank saving, %, from 2010 to 2013
Bank saving per capita person, thousand.tug, average of 2010-2013
6 26 42 47 47 50 63 70 73 75 83 83 86 86 88 88 96 104 107
-‐ 20 40 60 80 100 120
Арвайхээр Хархорин
Уянга Хужирт
Бат-‐Өлзий Зүүн Баян-‐Улаан
Тарагт Зүйл
Төгрөг Нарийн тээл
Хайрхандулаан Сант Богд
Бага Баян-‐Улаан Баянгол Өлзийт
Баян-‐Өндөр Гучин ус
Бүрд
Livestock number, per capita person, sheep.unip
Livestock number per capita person by
sheep.unit, avarege of 2003-‐2013
Khujirt
Kharhorin Uyanga
Bat-‐Ulzii
Khairhandulaan
Taragt
Ulziit
Nariinteel
Zuunbayan-‐Ulaan
Esunzuil
Burd
Bayan-‐Undur
Arvaiheer
Sant
Bayangol
Tugtug
Guchin-‐Us
Bogd Baruunbayan-‐Ulaan
Livestock number per capita person by sheep.unit, avarege of 2003-‐2013
Livestock number, per capita person
Vulnerability assessment, Uvurkhangai aimag Combined ecological vulnerability
assessment by sums Combined social vulnerability
assessment by sums
Sum center Sum boundary
Legend
Vulnerability index
Sum center Sum boundary
Legend
Vulnerability index
Arvaikheer
Baruunbayan Ulaan
Bat Ulzii
Bayangol Bayan Undur
Bogd
Burd
Guchin Us
Esunzuil
Zuunbayan Ulaan
Ulziit Sant
Taragt
Tugrug
Uyanga
Khaikhandulaan Kharkhorin
Khujirt
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
0.550
0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700
Soci
al v
ulne
rabi
lity
inde
x
Ecological vulnerability index
Average value of the environmental vulnerability index is 0.310
Average value of the social and economic vulnerability index is 0.417
Integrated vulnerability assessment of social-ecological systems by sums
Arkhangai aimag: Some Result of Analysis and Vulnerability assessment
4.09
0.73 0.73
6.31
29.66
4.33
8.07
2.09 1.59
30.21
2.83 5.42
-‐3.90
-‐25.42
-‐8.97
2.32 1.19 -‐1.55
-‐10.77
-‐5.58
-‐11.67
0.09
-‐14.26
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 -‐32.00
-‐28.00
-‐24.00
-‐20.00
-‐16.00
-‐12.00
-‐8.00
-‐4.00
0.00
4.00
8.00
Livestock loss, %
, sheep.unit
Он
Drou
ght-‐zud index, (∆
S)
Малын зүй бус хорогдол, % Ган-‐зудын индекс, ∆S
y = 0.02x2 + 0.72x + 8.26 R² = 0.10, r=0.31
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
-‐30.00 -‐25.00 -‐20.00 -‐15.00 -‐10.00 -‐5.00 0.00 5.00 Livestock loss, %
, sheep.unit
Drought-‐zud index, (∆S)
2.99
3.12
3.44
3.65
3.70
4.38
4.49
4.58
4.68
4.70
5.46
5.63
5.77
5.86
5.92
6.30
6.37
6.45
7.45
2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50
Чулуут
Хангай
Хайрхан
Ихтамир
Эрдэнэмандал
Өндөр-‐Улаан
Булган
Тариат
Батцэнгэл
Жаргалант
Өгийнуур
Цэцэрлэг
Цэнхэр
Цахир
Эрдэнэбулган
Өлзийт
Төвшрүүлэх
Хашаат
Хотонт
Livestock loss, %, sheep.unit
Ba�sengel
Bulgan Jargalant Ih-‐tamir
Ugii-‐nuur
Ulziit
Undur-‐Ulaan
Tariat
Hairhan Hangai
Hashaat
Hotont
Tsahir
Tuvshruuleh
Tsetserleg
Chuluut
Erdenebulgan
Erdenemandal
y = 0.01x2 + 0.28x + 6.33 R² = 0.26, r=0.51
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
-‐15.00 -‐12.00 -‐9.00 -‐6.00 -‐3.00 0.00 3.00 Livestock loss, %
, sheep.unit
Drought-‐zud index, (∆S)
SpaJal relaJon for drought-‐zud index and livestock loss by sums, Arkhangai, average of 1995-‐2013
Livestock loss by sums, average of 1990-‐2013, Arkhangai
Rela>on for Livestock loss and drought-‐zud index for 1990-‐2013, Arkhangai
Dynamic of livestock loss and drought-‐zud index for 1990-‐2013, Arkhangai
Ih-‐tamir
Hangai Hairhan
Erdenemandal
Ugiinuur
Bulgan
Ulziit
Jargalant
Undur-‐ulaan
Tariat
Hotont
Tuvshruuleh
Chuluut
Tsetserleg
Erdenebulgan
Ba�sengel
Hashaat
Tsenher Tsahir
Ulziit
Livestock loss, % Drought-‐zud index
Vulnerability assessment, Arkhangai aimag Combined ecological vulnerability
assessment by sums Combined social vulnerability
assessment by sums
Battsengel Bulgan
Jargalant
Ikh Tamir
Ugiinuur
Ulziit
Undur Ulaan
Tariat
Tuvshruuleh
Khairkhan
Khangai
Khashaat
Khotont
Tsakhir
Tsenkher
Tsetserleg
Chuluut
Erdenemandal
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500
Soci
al v
ulne
rabi
lity
inde
x
Ecological vulnerability index
Average value of the environmental vulnerability index is 0.291
Average value of the social and economic vulnerability is 0.471
Integrated vulnerability assessment of social-ecological systems by sums
Discussion & Coopera1on
• We idenJfied more vulnerabiliJes areas and sectors in the Five aimags by this research.
• The results of this study is giving good messages for the policy makers • More vulnerable sums are need to implement green policy such as increasing “green” budget, to develop capacity of adaptaJon and resilience, to decrease the vulnerability and to coordinate the policy plan and budget based on this research.
• IdenJfy needs of FREEZING SYSTEM in which sum to linking vulnerability and adaptaJon opJons.
Thank you very much for your aHen1on. Баярлалаа...
Livestock risk based on livestock loss during drought and zud years
3
13
15
22
25
27
27
28
28
34
40
47
59
60
62
66
66
67
72
0 20 40 60 80
Арвайхээр
Хархорин
З-Баян-Улаан
Тарагт
Хужирт
Бат-Өлзий
Төгрөг
Сант
Уянга
Зүйл
Баянгол
Өлзийт
Баян-Өндөр
Хайрхандулаан
Бүрд
Богд
Нарийн тээл
Гучин ус
Б-Баян-Улаан
Нэг хүнд ногдох мал, хон.тол/ хүн