w w w. f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r. c o m 15:44 mega trends for newspaper publishers

w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44

Mega Trends for Newspaper Publishers


Mega trends Internationalisation

Source: Boeing market outlook 2004


Mega trends Internationalisation

• Companies looking overseas for corporate growth

• Local editionising of international brands

• Newspapers seeking expats and travellers

• International partnerships of national titles

• AOL Time Warner• Bertlesman• Bauer• CanWest• Gannett

• Alma• Shibsted• Bonnier• Burda• Forbes

•G&J•Hachette •MTV•News Corp•Vivendi.

• Australian Consolidated• Independent News and

Media• Modern Times Group• Mondadori (Fininvest)• Sanoma


• The world’s most successful newspapers appeal more to women than to men.

• General trend of high female readership driving better circulation performance.

Performance drivers - Gender

Otago Daily Times

The Press

The Dominion Post

The New Zealand Herald

R2 = 0.6386-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

47 48 49 50 51 52

Readership mix % female

Cir

cula

tio

n v

aria

nce

(%

Y/Y

) 2

005

/20

03

Austrian Daily Newspaper Market Impact of female readership on circulation

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

Australia`

Austria


New formatsRecent history

30.5 31.0 31.4 33.1 34.0 36.0

2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 4.4 4.0

67.2 66.6 66.1 64.4 61.6 60.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

% tabloid % other % Broadsheet

61 newspapers moved to tabloid last year


• Aftenposten• Belfast Telegraph • Blick• Bohuslaningen• Borås Tidning• Buks Free Press• Dagens Nyheter• Der Standard• DNEVNIK • DuMont Schauberg• El Mercurio• Evening Gazzete• Evening Press• Gazet van Antwerpen• Göteborgs-Posten• Het Parool• Hufvudstadsbladet

• The Independent

• Information

• Intention

• The Irish Independent

• The Irish News

• Itä-Häme

• Krant van West-Vlaanderen

• La Dernierre Heure Les Sports

• Nerikes Allehanda

• New Straits Times

• New Sunday Times

• New Zealand Herald

• New Sunday Times

• New Zealand Herald

• News

• Östersunds-Posten• Östgöta Correspondenten• Press and Journal• The Scotsman• Skånska Dagbladet• Sundsvalls Tidning• Sydsvenska Dagbladet• The Times• Trouw• Upsala Nya Tidning• Vaesterbottens-Kuriren• Vestmanlands Läns Tidning• Wall Street Journal• Welt Kompakt• Western Mail• Yucaip

New formatsRecent change


New formatsCirculation patterns

Year to 18 months


1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Think now

Source: various/SFN

Over 155 free daily titles worldwide> 22 million copies distributed daily

0

5

10

15

20

25

Other free dailies

Metro


Free dailies Readership patterns (European Cities)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

13-24's 25-34's

Free daily

Paid daily

Source: Gallup TNS Metro International

w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44 WPT / Amsterdam School of Communications Research (ASCoR)

Free newspapers Share of Free Dailies vs Paid Dailies

Share of free dailies in total newspapers

4029 27 25 21 20 20 17 16

118 6 6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Spain

Italy

Denm

ark

Portu

gal

Hunga

ry

Franc

e

Sweden

Nethe

rland

s

Belgium

Poland

Finlan

dUK

Austri

a


Free dailiesCirculation v advertising

Armenia

Australia

Belgium

Canada

CroatiaCzech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

FinlandFrance

Germany

Greece

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

JapanLatvia

Lebanon

Luxembourg

Macedonia

Netherlands

Norway

Portugal

Slovakia

Spain

Sri Lanka

Sweden

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

Uruguay

R2 = 0.1752

0

500

1000

0 250 500Circulation revenue per copy

Ad

vert

isin

g r

even

ue

per

co

py

Source: World Press Trends / SFN


New formatsConfiguration

Broadsheet Berlinner

Tabloid A4


New formatsAlternative formats


Springer Germany ExtensionWelt Kompact

Youth street version of Die Welt

Springer Poland NPD FaktNow No. 1 in Poland

Expected to launch in other markets;

Holtzbrink Germany HybridNews

20 Cents

Low price street papers amalgamating resources for core titles.

DMGT UK Extension Standard LiteFree “early” edition of London Evening paper

Pearson UK Extension FT Lite Free “early” edition of FT

InnovationNew launches and hybrids (recent)


InnovationNew launches and hybrids (underway)

Agora Poland NPD ? New daily starting Oct 2005

N. Presse Passau

Poland NPD ? Free daily 900.000 copies

Ringier Serbia NPD Blic New daily

Springer Slovakia NPD Novy Cas first Sunday

Caltagirone Italy ? Leggo free daily with regional editions

Sanomat Finland NPD Bi-weekly free 450.000 copies

Fellner Austria NPD New daily

?? UK NPD City AMNew free business daily in London


Markets in context News on the Internet - Usage and value

Media consumption trends Impact of online experience in reading online newspapers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

<1 year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 5> yrs

years of online experience

% o

f o

nli

kn

e u

se

rs w

ho

re

ad

a n

ew

sp

ap

er UK

GermanyFranceItalySpain

average

Source: Forrester Consumer Technographics 2004


Spain in context Internet Y/Y variance advertising share

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Spain UK Europe


Classified migration

Turnover $18 million.

Bought by eBay for$340 million.



Speurders.nl Marktplaats.nl

Ford 7,210 3,055

Volkswagen 16,165 7,365

Mercedes 8,231 3,072

Opel 11,885 5,102


ConsumerConsumer

MediumMedium

IntermediaryIntermediary

GoodsGoods

The new relationship Disintermediation

StimulusStimulus

ChoiceChoice

TransactionTransaction

FulfilmentFulfilment


ConsumerConsumer

GoodsGoods

ReaderReader

EventsEvents

The new relationship Disintermediation

MediumMedium

IntermediaryIntermediary


Mobile revolution

Old Industry Threat New Industry

Records RadioMusic

Business

Film TelevisionHome

Video

Newspapers MobileCommunity

Communication


Mobile revolution

Community

meets content,

meets access,

meets immediacy.


Mobile revolution Mobile evolution

Media consumer trends Uptake of mobile technologies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3G/UMTSGPRSGSM

Source: Forrester

Wireless


Mobile revolution Complementary goalsAsahi Shimbun’s audience

Source: Asahi Shimbun

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mobile

asahi.com

Newspaper

under19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 over 60


The New News The invisible media


The New News


The New News The invisible media


The New NewsThe new reporter


Think ahead

Free to consume…. Free to contribute….Gather

Aggregate

Package

Channel

Distribute

Market

Self select


Norway interacts Austria interacts


Norway interacts• 10,000 readers now send “content” every day;

• Active programme of polls and participation

• Newsroom established “portal” to handle content management

Austria interacts• 100,000 of 350,000 citizens

appeared in the paper or website last year;

• 1,500 are members of 14 community forums

• Established wireless network through circulation area 350,000 people) enabling free internet access for all subscribers.


Mobile revolution Communication/Commerce - personal

Revenue = $13

Revenue = $40

Switzerland interacts


Strategy to exploit the New NewsParticipation is a marketing device.

Gather

Aggregate

Package

Channel

Distribute

Market

• Encourage readers to send stories.

• Incentivise participation through subscription/casual payment

• Encourage readers to participate across channels,

•sending text messages,

•responding to polls,

•joining forums

• Adopt channel strategies to attract new (particularly younger readers)

• Recognise (and incentivise use of other channels

• Utilise channel benefits to promote other services

• Widen contextual services, to deliver revenue streams

• Promote participation as a unique benefit

• Encourage remote local “clubs”, and interactions


Strategy to exploit the New NewsIndustry threat is greater than title threat

Newspaper industry must redefine its definition of competition• Identify points in value chain from which non-

competitive synergise can be derived• See readers and advertisers as partners and

participants• Offer a common response to pirating (googlenews),

and un-controlled online publishing• Create nation networks for classified


Thank you

[email protected]

w w w. f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r. c o m 15:44 mega trends for newspaper publishers

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