wa state employment estimates and forecasts for...

Washington State Employment Estimates and Forecasts for Transportation Investment Planning

Washington Transportation CommissionJanuary 18, 2012

Chris Mefford, President & CEOCommunity Attributes Int’lSeattle, Washington

Contents

January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 2

Context: Statewide Employment Trends and Outlook

Data charts

Regional Economic Drivers, Industry Employment and Transportation Needs

Discussion, Data charts

County Growth and County Sectors Data, maps

Conclusions Conclusions

Statewide Employment,1990 to 2011

Source: Washington State Employment Security Dept.; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CAI, Nov. 2011Non‐Farm Employment

2.0%

2.8%

‐1.2%

2.3%

‐3.4%

1.5% 1.4%

‐3.5%

‐2.5%

‐1.5%

‐0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

19901996

19962001

20012003

20032008

20082010

20102012

19902012

CAGR

Annual Growth Rates


0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Thousands (000s)

Statewide Employment, 1990 to 2019

Source: Washington State Employment Security Dept.Non‐Farm Employment

2.1%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2012 ‐ 2019

CAGR

Annual Growth Rates


0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Thousands (000s)

Washington State Employment

Contents



Data charts





Regional Economy Circular Flow


External sectors

ExportsImports

Households

Businesses & Non-Profits

Consumer purchasesPrivate contributions

Income

Capital markets

Private investment

Personal savings Government

Taxes

Transfer payments

Gov’t Purchases

In‐Migration

Where transportation investmentscan make a difference


Imports, Exports and Intraregional Distribution

Workers, Talent, Families

Transport / Transmission / Delivery Speed

Quality of Life (Access & Mobility)

Access to Skilled Labor and Talent

Cost of Living (Access & Mobility)

Energy and Fuel Energy and Fuel

Employment data must be re-grouped to align with investment choices


Prelim Revised Revised Revised Jul-11 Aug-10 Jul-10

**NAICS Industry Title Aug-11 Jul-11 Aug-10 Jul-10 Aug-11 Aug-11 Aug-10Total Nonfarm 1 2,822,200 2,835,200 2,775,700 2,794,300 -13,000 46,500 -18,600Total Private 2,313,700 2,308,400 2,260,600 2,258,900 5,300 53,100 1,700Goods Producing 430,000 422,900 416,800 415,000 7,100 13,200 1,800 Mining and Logging 6,400 6,300 6,300 6,300 100 100 0 Construction 149,900 146,900 149,000 147,400 3,000 900 1,600 Manufacturing 273,700 269,700 261,500 261,300 4,000 12,200 200 Durable Goods 194,700 193,700 185,100 185,400 1,000 9,600 -300 Aerospace Product and Parts Mfg. 88,000 87,400 80,500 80,700 600 7,500 -200 Nondurable Goods 79,000 76,000 76,400 75,900 3,000 2,600 500 Food Manufacturing 37,400 34,300 35,500 34,900 3,100 1,900 600Service Providing 2,392,200 2,412,300 2,358,900 2,379,300 -20,100 33,300 -20,400 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 532,500 534,400 519,900 520,000 -1,900 12,600 -100 Wholesale Trade 124,300 126,300 121,400 121,700 -2,000 2,900 -300 Retail Trade 315,000 314,200 309,200 308,600 800 5,800 600 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 37,300 38,000 36,400 36,300 -700 900 100

Nonfarm Employment in

Not Seasonally Adjusted/*Updated with ***QCEW Data: March 2011

Change

Washington State

Washington Jobs, Grouped by Economic Impact


Source: Washington Employment Security Department, Community AttributesNote: Data for August, with CAI estimates to overcome data limitations, draft estimates.

201,100144,900

63,400 79,000

217,500

707,300

422,700

166,100

569,500

314,100

High to Medium Export Activity

High Multiplier Effect

Manufacturing Durable Goods & Resources Information

Technology

Farming Manuf. Non‐

Durable Goods

Wholesale, Transport, Ware‐housing

Retail, Hotels,

Entertain,Svcs

Prof. Services

Const., Waste & Utilities

Health & Education

Government (all levels, no

educ)

Jobs, 2011

Washington Jobs, Grouped by Economic Impact


201,100144,900

63,400 79,000

217,500

707,300

422,700

166,100

569,500

314,100

Intra‐Region Mobility for Labor & Freight

x x x x x x x x x x

Access for Labor x x x x x x x x xOut of StateFreight Mobility Infrastructure

x x x x

Business / Tourism Travel x x x



Manufacturing Durable Goods & Resources Information

Technology

Farming Manuf. Non‐

Durable Goods

Wholesale, Transport, Ware‐housing

Retail, Hotels,

Entertain,Svcs

Prof. Services

Const., Waste & Utilities

Health & Education

Government (all levels, no

educ)

Mobility Needs

Jobs, 2011

Industries grouped by common needs, ranked for economic impact


Industries

Washington Jobs

(2.9 Million)

High Export Activity


Transportation NeedsIntra‐region mobility, freight and

labor

Access for

Labor

Out‐of‐State Freight Infra‐

structure

Business / Tourism Travel

Production of Durable Goods & Resources 201,100 High High x x xInformation Technology 144,900 High High x x xFarming 63,400 High High x xProduction of Non‐Durable Goods 79,000 Med‐

High High x x xWholesale, Transport, Warehousing 217,500 High x x xConsumer Services, Hospitality, Retail 707,300 Med x x xProfessional Services 422,700 Med x x xConstruction, Waste & Utilities 166,100 x xHealth & Education 569,500 x xGovernment (all levels, no educ) 314,100 x x

Department of Commerce Key Industries for Washington State


• Aerospace • Information and communication technology

• Clean energy • Manufacturing

• Forest products • Marine technology

• Global health and life sciences

• Value‐added agriculture and food processing

• Tourism

Washington State Export Industries


Sector Exports and Examples

Top Ranking Mobility Needs

Freight Commuter Int’l Travel

Aerospace Planes, parts, expertise x x x

I.T. Virtual products, on‐line commerce x x

Durable goods manufacturing

Smaller products, supplies x x

Food and perishables

Apples, Fruit, Hops, Wine, much more x x

Professional services

Design expertise, CleanTech, innovation x x

Research & Education

Expertise, collaboration x x

Contents



Data charts





Geographic economic impact considerations

1.Regional economies do not fit neatly into governmental jurisdictions

2.Specific industries have relatively and significantly different impacts among counties and cities

3.Similar transportation investments may be more critical to some industries, more critical to some regions

4.Some investments may enable growth, others may help prevent economic deterioration … and shades of gray in between

5.Some investments may be significant by themselves, others may be part of system and their impacts may be less distinct



Jobs by County, All Jobs, 2010

• Map, change in total jobs by county (actual change)

• Regional boundaries on map


Jobs Growth Change by County, All Jobs, 2002 - 2010

Washington Transportation Commission 17January 11, 2012


Jobs Growth Rates by County, All Jobs, 2002 - 2010


Forecasted Job Growth, All Jobs, 2011 - 2019


Forecasted Job Growth Rates, All Jobs, 2011 - 2019

Washington Transportation Commission 20January 11, 2012

Jobs by Region in Washington, August 2011


144,600 253,100

1,154,900

511,400

199,700 237,600

91,400

246,400 16,40033,800

130,700

53,400

28,800 28,500

8,800

26,700

‐

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Northwest SnohomishCounty

Seattle‐KingCounty

Olympic Southwest SouthCentral

NorthCentral

Eastern

Jobs

2019 Forecasts2011 Estimates

2011 Statewide Total: 2,822,000plus approx. avg. 40,000 farm jobs2019 Forecast: 3,166,000 (w/ farm jobs)

5% 9% 41% 18% 7% 3% 3% 9%


161,000

266,900

1,285,600

564,800

228,500 266,100

103,200

273,100

Statewide Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging

Manufacturing Trade, Transp., & Utilities

Leisure & Hospitality

Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction

Education & Health Services

Government

Professional and Business Services

6,310

269,370

113,800

39,200

523,350

272,900

138,120

352,880

150,640

325,100

139,730

507,530

1,260

24,460

20,630

44,750

30,200

3,470

91,490

13,810

55,200

5,120

36,730

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000Jobs

2011 – 19 Forecasts2011 Estimates


144,600 jobs in 2011161,000 jobs in 2019



North-Northwestern Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


200

14,290

2,790 1,000

28,020

17,950

3,900

14,150

10,330

2,150

20,050

29,740

30

2,100

300

2,130

1,680

270

3,730

1,060

400

1,060

3,610

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000Jobs



144,600 jobs in 2011161,000 jobs in 2019



Snohomish Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


200

58,800

5,800 1,000

42,800

22,800

10,600

21,40015,700

29,100

9,600

35,300

150

6,680

550

4,560

2,730

660

6,3502,060

5,770

480

3,820

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000Jobs



253,100 jobs in 2011266,900 jobs in 2019



King County, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


500

100,10081,700

400

215,700

113,600

64,300

190,100

52,600

137,700

42,500

155,700

80

2,79018,790

0

14,500

13,590

220

49,280

1,900

19,600

990

8,980

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000Jobs 2011 – 19 Forecasts

2011 Estimates


1,154,900 jobs in 20111,285,600 jobs in 2019



Olympic Region, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


1,720

28,520

9,440 1,000

95,470

43,600

27,30040,500

30,170

50,900

28,040

126,990

280

3,320

450

9,590

4,410

570

9,8803,550

9,300

1,130

7,900

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000Jobs



511,400 jobs in 2011564,800 jobs in 2019



Southwestern Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


1,400

22,150

3,850 2,900

37,800

19,080

8,150

20,690

13,060

25,570

10,190

34,860

110

3,610

730

4,480

2,190

440

6,120

1,610

5,790

560

3,200

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000Jobs 2011 – 19 Forecasts

2011 Estimates


199,700 jobs in 2011228,500 jobs in 2019



January 18, 2012 Washington Transportation Commission 31Washington Transportation CommissionJanuary 11, 2012

South Central Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


1,270

19,990

4,550

17,400

40,930

21,270

6,630

31,350

11,130

30,600

8,230

44,200

300

2,330

‐250

3,890

2,490

420

7,340

2,000

6,300

170

3,470

‐10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000Jobs



237,600 jobs in 2011266,000 jobs in 2019



North Central Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


620

5,680

1,460

12,000

18,170

8,460

2,450

4,800 5,6007,400

3,900

20,810

160

900

0

1,910

940

140

1,010 4001,330

140

1,840

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000Jobs



91,400 jobs in 2011100,100 jobs in 2019



Eastern Washington, Jobs by Industry and Forecasts


Mining & Logging



Finance Other

Information

Farming

Construction


Government


400

19,840

4,210 3,500

44,460

19,700

13,290

23,990

12,050

40,380

13,780

50,790

150

2,730

60

3,690

1,520

720

6,340

1,230

6,480

450

3,340

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000Jobs



246,400 jobs in 2011273,100 jobs in 2019



Contents



Data charts





Conclusions

• Employment data must be analyzed and re-packaged to align information with decisions

• Transportation investments should – reduce operating costs for employers – reduce access cost for employees

• High impact industries have high multiplier impacts and high export value

• Jobs will increase again, and investments should support their growth, regionally and by industry

• Each region has different needs for their economy and their transportation

• Recommendation: Address consistency of data products statewide for better decision-making


wa state employment estimates and forecasts for...

Documents