walking through simplified qra examples
DESCRIPTION
Quantitative Risk AssessmentTRANSCRIPT
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Quantitative Risk AssessmentWalking through Simplified Example
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What Would You Learn From This Exercise?Elements of Risk Quantification Risk = Frequency * Consequence
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(1) Frequency AssessmentHazard IdentificationFrequency Assessmentbase-line frequencymagnitude-frequency 40 m80 m100 mGradient = 1:2(a) Hillside susceptible to landslides(b) Probable landslide volumes and frequencySectionPlan
Landslide Volume (m3)
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(1) Frequency AssessmentHazard IdentificationFrequency Assessmentbase-line frequencymagnitude-frequency 80 m100 mABCDEach Hillside Unit Area = 100 m2
Landslide Volume (m3)
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(1) Frequency AssessmentHazard IdentificationFrequency Assessmentbase-line frequencymagnitude-frequency
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(1) Frequency AssessmentHazard IdentificationFrequency Assessmentbase-line frequencymagnitude-frequency
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(2) Consequence AssessmentABCDConsequence AssessmentRunout distanceProximityVulnerability factorsFacility at riskPopulation at riskTable in C.2
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(2) Consequence AssessmentAB
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(2) Consequence AssessmentAB
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(2) Consequence AssessmentABCDConsequence AssessmentRunout distanceProximityVulnerability factorsFacility at riskPopulation at risk
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(2) Consequence AssessmentABCDConsequence AssessmentRunout distanceProximityVulnerability factorsFacility at riskPopulation at risk
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(2) Consequence AssessmentLarge ScaleSmall Scale
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(2) Consequence AssessmentABCDConsequence AssessmentFacility at riskPopulation at riskProximityRunout distanceVulnerability factors
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(2) Consequence AssessmentABCDConsequence AssessmentFacility at riskPopulation at riskProximityRunout distanceVulnerability factors
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(2) Consequence Assessment
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(3) Risk EvaluationABCDRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk Mitigation
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(3) Risk Evaluation
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(3) Risk Evaluation
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(3) Risk Evaluation
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(3) Risk EvaluationRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveCost-benefitRisk ManagementDifferent Fatality Scenarios Risk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk Mitigation
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(3) Risk EvaluationRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveCost-benefitRisk ManagementDifferent Fatality Scenarios Risk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk Mitigation
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(3) Risk EvaluationRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveCost-benefitRisk ManagementDifferent Fatality Scenarios Risk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk Mitigation
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(3) Risk EvaluationRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk Mitigation
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(3) Risk Evaluation
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(3) Risk EvaluationRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk MitigationABCD
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(3) Risk EvaluationRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk Mitigation> 10-4 UNACCEPTABLEReference:Interim Risk Guideline (ERM, 1998)
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(3) Risk EvaluationRisk AnalysisPIRPLLF-N curveRisk dist.Risk TolerabilityCost-benefitRisk MitigationReference: Interim Risk Guideline (ERM, 1998)Stabilization of Zones A to DSoil nailing at 1 m vertical and 1.5 m horizontal spacing:
No. of nails 7 x 20 = 140 Cost $5000 x 140= HK$ 0.7 M