walsh, michael, former chairman of the board, international council on clean transportation (icct)
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The Global Context: Lessons
And Update From The US And
Abroad
October 30, 2012
Michael P. Walsh
International Consultant
Founding Chairman, International Council on Clean Transportation
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Million Metric Tons
MC
HDT
MDGT
MDT
LDDV
LDGV
Particulate Emissions By Road Vehicle Type
Base Case
Health effects of fine particles
(PM2.5) • Breathing fine particles (PM2.5) causes adverse effects on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems
• Ambient (outdoor) PM2.5 exposures are linked to
– Premature death – Heart attacks – Strokes – Hospital and emergency room
visits – Acute and chronic bronchitis – Asthma-related effects – PM2.5 may also be associated
with infant mortality, low birth weight, and cancer
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BC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution
• Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture
known as particulate matter (PM)
– Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM
– Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and
biomass, and is a major component of “soot”
– Mainly found in the fine particle (PM2.5) fraction, which is most
strongly linked to adverse health effects
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Diesel Vehicles and Engines are Ideal
Candidates for Black Carbon Control
• Very high ratio of Black
Carbon to Organic
Carbon
• Ubiquitous
• Control Technology
Exists
• Substantial Health Co-
Benefits
Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles
U.S. and Europe Heavy-Duty Engine
Transient Cycle Emission Standards
3.5
0
2.0
0
0.4
0
1.5
0
0.6
5
0.2
6
3.0
3.0
1.0 1
.3
1.3
1.3
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S. 2007 U.S. 2010
(max
NOx)
U.S. 2010
(std.)
Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 100
2005 2008 2013
g/kWh
Euro VI includes particle number limit
Forecast: Transportation Will Continue To Be A Major
Energy Consumer Going Forward Without Strong Action
Data from:
US Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011.
[Report number DOE/EIA-0484(2011)]. – Reference Case
Available online: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/
• The transportation sector consumes the majority of liquid fuels
• The transportation sector is expected to grow in its consumption of liquid
fuels, as well as its share of total consumption
Improving Fuel Efficiency/GHG
Emissions
Slide 11
Improve vehicle and trailer aerodynamics
Reduce
rolling
resistance
Improve
drivetrain
efficiency
Reduce
auxiliary
loads
Improve
engine
efficiency
Reduce
vehicle
weight
Optimize
driver
behavior
US Technology Assessment
Slide 12
National Academy of Sciences Report (March 2010) found 35 – 50%
improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe
National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for
Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus
(Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of the
combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N) where
%FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.
Global Regulatory Landscape For Heavy Duty
Fuel Economy/GHG Controls
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Country/R
egion
Regulation
Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Japan Fuel
economy
Regulation implemented starting MY
2015
United
States
GHG/Fuel
efficiency
Standard
proposal Final rule
Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 (
mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016)
Canada GHG/Fuel
efficiency
Standard
proposal Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014
China Fuel
consumption
Test
procedure
finalized
Industry
standard
proposal
Standard
proposal Final rule
Regulation implemented starting MY
2015
European
Union GHG Technical studies
Test
procedure
finalized
Mandatory efficiency reporting and
regulatory development
California
End-user
purchase
requirements
Requirements for tractors and
trailers (MY 2011+)
Additional reqs. for existing tractors
and trailers (<MY 2010)
Additional reqs. for
existing trailers and
reefers (<MY 2010)
Total Heavy-duty Vehicle CO2
Emissions
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt
CO
2e
Japan, Canada, EU Adopted
US 2014-2018 HDV
China Phase I HDV
China Phase II HDV
Mexico 2015-2018 HDV
Vehicle Potential (3.5% APR)
Activity Potential
Global HDV Emissions
Advanced
Technologies
Critical
in the Longer Term
US Fuel Cell Bus Projects
Source: http://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/proj_fc_bus_eval.html
BC Transit: Fuel Cell Bus Fleet Fleet of 20 hydrogen fuel cell buses in Whistler,
BC.
Application: Buses
Transit Agencies in CA Operating ZBuses
SF Muni: ~330 electric trolley buses in service
AC Transit: 3 fuel cell buses in service since March 2006, will lead Zero Emission Bay Area (ZEBA) demonstration of 12 next-generation fuel cell buses
Santa Clara VTA and Samtrans: 3 fuel cell buses operated between February 2005 and December 2009
Burbank Bus: recently put a plug-in fuel cell bus into service
SunLine Transit: H2 buses in service since 2005. 3 ZBuses operating
Foothill Transit: battery elec. Ecoliner
The HyRoad: AC Transit’s Hydrogen Fuel Cell Program
2nd largest transit agency in the Bay Area
940 km2 service area
69 million riders annually
Has been developing fuel cell demonstration program since 2000
3 buses phased into service starting in March 2006
On-site maintenance, 2 fueling stations online
Ongoing outside evaluation by National Renewable Energy Lab
Public education and community outreach
Educational curriculum for middle and high schools
FC buses designed to be Mobile Learning Centers
The HyRoad: Program Details
3 Van Hool buses, UTC fuel cell, ISE hybrid-electric drive system
Model year 2005
Fuel storage: 50 kg of hydrogen 400-480 km range
Cumulative mileage: more than 395,000 km
More than 623,000 passengers served
65% better fuel economy than diesels (8,200 lb handicap)
Chevron hydrogen fueling station opened in November 2005
Natural gas steam reformer generates 150 kg/day
Two new stations
Zero-emission Freight Technologies: Summary Of Ongoing Ce-delft/DLR Project
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• Technologies with potential for zero on-road emissions
– Example projects:
• Hytruck (NL); Smith (UK); Gemco e-truck; Zerotruck; eHighway
(Siemens); Daimler; in-road charging, etc
– Concepts:
• Hybrid electric delivery trucks
• Battery electric technology for trucks
• On-road charging technologies
• Hydrogen fuel cell technology
– Key questions:
• Feasibility
• Cost
• Infrastructure
Questions?
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Questions?