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Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite 500A Bethesda, Maryland 20817 www.twMidAtlanticMultifamily.com Published by: www.DeltaAssociates.com STATE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC CLASS A APARTMENT MARKET Rents Continue to Slide and Vacancy Increases, as Deliveries Outpace Surge in Absorption. Despite Increased Competition, Long-Term Prospects Remain Extremely Bright. Washington Metro Area As we have predicted for two years, the Washington apartment market’s metrics were finally affected by a rising tide of supply in 2013. This more competitive landscape will continue into 2015 and beyond, due to a record-setting wave of 28,500 units delivering to market over the next 24 months. Class A rents declined metro-wide by 3.0% in 2013, although as a testament to the Millennials fueling growth in the District, rents increased in DC. The Class A stabilized vacancy rate is 4.7%, up from December 2012 when it stood at 4.2%. The already oversized 36-month development pipeline grew to the highest level we have ever recorded in the Washington region, 39,122 units at December 2013, up 3,000 units in the fourth quarter. A bright spot amid these troubling trends is strong Class A absorption despite weak job growth in the region during 2013. However, outsized levels of new unit production during 2013, including the current quarter, will outstrip demand for the next two years. Therefore, a return to more positive metrics, previously predicted for 2016, is now more likely for the 2017 timeframe. Where is the good news? We think it lies in two factors: 1. The current condition is a supply problem and not demand driven. This problem will dissipate as the pipeline shrinks. 2. In the long term, the region’s apartment market prospects remain extremely bright, given lifestyle, economic, and demographic trends. These prospects and trends are discussed in detail a bit later in this article. TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP 1 AVA H Street, Washington, DC AvalonBay Communities, Inc. 2013 Award Winner - Innovative Design

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Page 1: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4

OUTLOOKA Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives

6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite 500ABethesda, Maryland 20817www.twMidAtlanticMultifamily.com

Published by:

www.DeltaAssociates.com

STATE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC CLASS A APARTMENT MARKET

Rents Continue to Slide and Vacancy Increases, as Deliveries Outpace Surge in Absorption.Despite Increased Competition, Long-Term Prospects Remain Extremely Bright.

Washington Metro Area

As we have predicted for two years, the Washington apartment market’s metrics were finally affected by a rising tide of supply in 2013. This more competitive landscape will continue into 2015 and beyond, due to a record-setting wave of 28,500 units delivering to market over the next 24 months.

• Class A rents declined metro-wide by 3.0% in 2013, although as a testament to the Millennials fueling growth in the District, rents increased in DC.

• The Class A stabilized vacancy rate is 4.7%, up from December 2012 when it stood at 4.2%.

• The already oversized 36-month development pipeline grew to the highest level we have ever recorded in the Washington region, 39,122 units at December 2013, up 3,000 units in the fourth quarter.

A bright spot amid these troubling trends is strong Class A absorption despite weak job growth in the region during 2013. However, outsized levels of new unit production during 2013, including the current quarter, will outstrip demand for the next two years. Therefore, a return to more positive metrics, previously predicted for 2016, is now more likely for the 2017 timeframe.

Where is the good news? We think it lies in two factors:

1. The current condition is a supply problem and not demand driven. This problem will dissipate as the pipeline shrinks.

2. In the long term, the region’s apartment market prospects remain extremely bright, given lifestyle, economic, and demographic trends. These prospects and trends are discussed in detail a bit later in this article.

TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP1

AVA H Street, Washington, DC AvalonBay Communities, Inc.2013 Award Winner - Innovative Design

Page 2: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP2

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

APARTMENT VACANCY RATEMajor Apartment Markets

RENTER HOUSEHOLDSWashington Metro vs. U.S. | 2006 – 2013

ANNUAL NET APARTMENT ABSORPTIONClass A & B Units | Washington Metro

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

NY LA Chi Wash* DFW Phx Atl Hou Balt* Phi*

Vaca

ncy

Rate

(All

Cla

sses

)

Source: Reis Services, LLC; Delta Associates; December 2013.

National Rate: 1/ 4.3%

1/ The 79 largest apartment markets in the U.S.*Mid-year 2013 data except for Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia which are Year-End 2013.

28%

29%

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Washington Metro

U.S.

% o

f To

tal H

ous

eho

lds

Yearly Average

Source: U.S. Census; Delta Associates; December 2013. *Through Third Quarter 2013.

16,476

12,529

8,619

6,202

3,668 3,303 4,163 3,580

583 360

1,965

4,932

6,493 6,185

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Source: Delta Associates, December 2013.

Net

Ab

sorp

tion

of C

lass

A &

B U

nits

Long-Term Average = 5,129

9/10

12/10

3/11

6/11

9/11

12/11

3/12

6/12

9/12

12/12

3/13

6/13

9/13

12/13

Year-End 2013 Highlights• Stabilized vacancy for investment-grade apartments (Class A

and B) rose to 4.9% from 4.3% a year ago.

• Rents for all investment-grade apartments were down 1.8% over the past 12 months.

Class A rents declined by 3.0% over the past year, down from the 1.9% growth posted at year-end 2012.

Class B rents were unchanged over the year.

• Annual Net Absorption, at 6,185 Class A and B apartments (121% of our long-term average), remained solid this quarter, with disabsorption of Class B units contrasting with a 2013 surge in Class A absorption. Washington recorded 8,188 Class A units absorbed over the past 12 months, as the trend toward renting vs. owning continued its upward path in the Washington metro area in 2013.

As predicted by Delta Associates and demonstrated by the latest U.S. Census Bureau data, the structural shift toward renting appears to have played out in the Washington area. This trend is further illustrated by Washington’s nation-leading for-sale housing market performance. (For more information about the local for-sale housing market, please see our Washington Area Housing Trends, available free to qualified readers, under separate cover. See www.DeltaAssociates.Com.) Absorption of Class A units over the next 36 months will likely be somewhat higher than the region’s long-term average of 5,767 units per annum. This projection is predicated upon the “de-nesting” and “un-coupling” of potential renters currently living with parents or roommates, and improved job growth and reduced uncertainty in the region over the intermediate term.

Page 3: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

www.twmidatlanticmultifamily.com 3

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

MARKET RATE APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINEWashington Metro | 2004 – 2013

ABSORPTION PACE PER PROJECT PER MONTH FOR PROJECTS IN INITIAL LEASE-UPWashington Metro

CLASS A APARTMENT UNIT STARTSWashington Metro | 2011 – 2013

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Delta Associates, December, 2013.

Mar

ket R

ate

Uni

ts P

lann

ed

and

Und

er C

ons

truc

tion

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13

Source: Delta Associates, December 2013.

Mo

nthl

y A

bso

rptio

n Pa

ce P

er

Pro

ject

Sin

ce M

arke

ting

Beg

an

Number of Projects in Initial

Lease-Up: 20 41 51 37 31 20 33 62

Source: Delta Associates, December, 2013.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

District Sub MD NoVA

2011 2012 2013

Num

ber

of C

lass

A M

arke

t Rat

e U

nits

Class A Long-Term Quarterly Absorption = 1,442

• Average monthly absorption of new projects declined over the past 12 months from 18 to 15 units per project per month. This decline in pace is reflective of the number of projects in lease-up growing from 33 to 62 over the past 12 months, with more to come in 2014-2015.

• The development pipeline reached a cyclical low of 16,606 units as of year-end 2009. Subsequently, improving market fundamentals and improving financing pushed the pipeline to 34,449 units at year-end 2011. At year-end 2013, the number stands at 39,122, as production ratcheted up in the latter half of 2013, with the market continuing to discount the threat of overbuilding. A foreboding statistic: Starts edged up again this quarter, with 3,895 units breaking ground, compared with our historical quarterly absorption pace of 1,442 units.

Sedona, Arlington, VA The JBG Companies 2013 Award Winner - Best Lease-Up for a Northern Virginia Apartment Community2013 Award Winner - Best High-Rise Apartment, Mid-Atlantic

Page 4: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP4

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT UNIT DELIVERIESWashington Metro | 2012 – 2014

DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONSClass A Apartment Market | Washington MetroDec. 2013 – Dec. 2016

Source: Delta Associates, December 2013.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2012 2013 2014

District

Sub MD

NoVA

Projected

N

umb

er o

f Cla

ss A

Mar

ket R

ate

Uni

ts

Long-Term Average = 6,327 per year

Source: Delta Associates, December, 2013.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

5.1% 5.4%

Projected Stabilized Vacancy % at Dec. 2016

Projected Stabilized Vacancy % at Dec. 2016: 4.8% Metro Wide

Planned and may deliver by 9/16: 6,031 Units

Under Construction supply: 33,091 Units2

Total = 33,122 Units

1 Probable supply after projected attrition.

2 Includes unleashed units at projects in lease-up.

Net Absorption: 7,500/Year = 22,500

Demand

Supply1

The District Sub MD NoVA

4.3%

Mar

ket R

ate

Uni

ts in

Tho

usan

ds

Substate Recap

The District’s Class A apartment market is holding up well in spite of the large slate of deliveries since mid-year 2012. Stabilized vacancy edged up only slightly over the year and rents increased, even as an influx of new product was delivered in The District. Much of the new product coming to market over the next 24 months is concentrated in emerging markets such as Mt. Vernon Triangle, NoMa, H Street, Shaw, and the Capitol Riverfront. A surge in demand is powering The District’s positive performance, with record-setting absorption nearly keeping pace with deliveries. If demand continues to run at twice its long-term average, as it is now, The District may have a softer landing than previously predicted.

Northern Virginia’s negative Class A apartment market metrics are reflective of the region’s strain from more competition. Vacancy is up, and rents are down for both low-rise and high-rise product, with suburban low-rise product faring worse. A bright spot: Class A absorption remains strong and nearly kept pace with deliveries during 2013. However, as deliveries accelerate in 2014, additional pressure will mount in submarkets with elevated levels of deliveries.

Suburban Maryland’s Class A market continues to have elevated vacancy rates, and rent continues to decline this quarter, particularly for suburban, low-rise product. Deliveries of Class A product have outpaced absorption by over 25% during 2013. This trend, coupled with construction starts well above the historical average, will continue to delay the return of more positive metrics until 2016-17.

District, Washington, DCJ.P. Morgan Asset Management, The Bozzuto Group2013 Award Winner - Best Lease-Up for a District of Columbia Apartment Community

Page 5: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

www.twmidatlanticmultifamily.com 5

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT RENT GROWTHWashington Metro | 2001 – 2016

CLASS A APARTMENT VACANCY RATEWashington Metro | Year-End 2006 – 2016

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%Long-Term Average = 4.2%

Source: Delta Associates, December 2013. * Annual rent growth at Year-End 2013 is -3.0%

Perc

ent E

ffect

ive

Rent

Gro

wth

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

2013*2014

20152016

2017

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016

NoVA Sub MD The District

Source: Delta Associates; December 2013. *Year-End 2013 Class A Vacancy = 4.7%

Stab

ilize

d V

acan

cy R

ate

WashingtonMetro Vacancy: 2.3% 2.9% 3.6% 4.4% 3.6% 5.0% 4.2% 4.7% 5.6% 5.3% 4.8%

The Way Forward

As the market becomes more competitive, we find that our more successful developer clients are competing with superior/well-designed and targeted product, in stronger submarkets with more limited pipeline with best-in-class management and marketing. Specifically, they are doing the following:

1. Investing in repositioning existing underperforming assets, with particular attention paid to the demographic segments that will likely be attracted to the property based on location, product type, and unit mix.

2. Positioning to take advantage of the long-term prospects for apartment living in the region. While near-term conditions may be competitive, demographic trends paint a bright future for the apartment marketplace.

• Tens of thousands of prospective renters in the Millennial cohort will continue to join the workforce over the coming decade and to demand flexible housing arrangements that apartments provide.

• Those in the Millennial cohort currently doubling up or living at home will eventually “age out” (or be nudged out) and look for their own places, further enhancing demand over the long term.

3. Innovating with new features and community amenities, including:

• Pet-centric amenities such as pet care centers, dog-walking areas, etc.

• Interactive media stations in club rooms and electronic concierge notification systems.

• Built-in audio systems and flexible furniture, such as moveable kitchen islands, to maximize small unit spaces.

• Bike storage, bike and car sharing infrastructure, especially near Metro.

• Outdoor spaces, including movie screens, screened-in porches or fireplaces that expand the living space of the property and extend the summer “outdoor” season.

• Units uniquely targeted to roommate shares.

4. Going for Metro oriented, urban locations (or place- making) that appeal to those renters who demand to be near their place of work and near the action, and appeal to the increasing number of tenants who chose not to own a car.

Page 6: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP6

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

Supply/Demand and Rent Outlook

Given the projected delivery schedule of projects currently under construction, we expect the region-wide vacancy rate for stabilized Class A apartment properties to edge upward from 4.7% today to 4.8 % by year-end 2016 and a bit higher before then. However, there will be significant variance in conditions within the region.

At the regional level Class A rents will face downward pressure over the next 24 months due to the large slate of scheduled deliveries compared to projected demand levels. Annual rent growth has turned negative in 26 of 36 submarkets, as competition increased in 2013. Given a robust delivery schedule of new product and unabated construction starts, rent declines will likely be registered at the regional level for in 2014 and 2015. Better projects in stronger submarkets will outperform these market averages. We expect rental rates to

recover to the 3.0% range by 2017.

Washington Investment Sales

The Washington investment sales market experienced robust activity in 2010 and 2011. 2011 saw strength in investment sales with $2.41 billion of multifamily Class A communities trading (19 low-rise properties and 10 mid-/high-rise properties).

2012 saw a decline in Class A sales activity, with $1.41 billion of multifamily Class A building sales (eight low-rise properties and eight mid-/high-rise properties). The average per unit price for 2012 sales was 10.6% lower than year-end 2011 for low-rise units (at $200,000). High-rises prices were off 7.1% from year-end 2011 at ($393,000).

Through November of 2013, we note $1.57 billion of multifamily Class A building transaction volume, eclipsing all of 2012. These sales include 18 low-rise and four high-rise properties plus the Archstone sale, described below. The low-rise average price per unit is up 17.2% over 2012 levels (at $234,582) and the high-rise price is up 19.7% (at $470,989).

There was a noticeable shift in the mix of transactions from 2012 to 2013. In 2012, there was an even mix of garden and mid-/high-rise transactions, but in 2013 the balance shifted heavily toward garden product. This shift may be reflective of a move away from more suburban portfolios in light of regional demographic and locational preference trends. Of major note in the Washington region in 2013 is the break-up and sale of stalwart developer and operator Archstone to AvalonBay and Equity Residential.

This transaction, covering 138 existing properties nationally and development sites throughout the region, closed in Feb. 2013.

It is our sense, and those of our 2013 Delta Associates Market Maker Survey participants, that cap rates nudged up slightly during 2013, as market conditions became more competitive amid increased supply and job growth was muted in the region. Despite this uptick in cap rates, our survey indicated that apartments have been and will remain in favor as an asset class.

Thirteen multifamily land sales have closed through November 2013, totaling $282 million, with the capacity for more than 4,200 multifamily units. More than $338 million in multifamily land sales was completed in 2012, with the capacity for more than 5,600 units, compared with $280 million in sales during 2011.

Station Square at Cosner’s Corner, Fredericksburg, VAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.2013 Award Winner - Best Garden Apartment, Virginia

Page 7: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

www.twmidatlanticmultifamily.com 7

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

Baltimore Metro Area: While Stabilized Vacancy Edges Up, Rent Growth Is Flat

Rental housing fundamentals in the Baltimore area are healthy, with steady performance in the city and most suburbs. Supply has been limited in recent quarters; however, increased supply may affect performance in the coming year.

Year-End 2013 Baltimore Highlights

• Stabilized Class A vacancy for the Baltimore metro area is up 170 basis points from last year at this time, to 5.1%. Vacancy in Baltimore’s southern submarkets is up from 4.1% last year to 4.5%. Vacancy in Baltimore’s northern submarkets is up to 6.2% from 4.4% last year at this time. The Baltimore region’s vacancy rate is outperformed by the national average of 4.3%.

• Concessions in the Baltimore metro area have decreased slightly since last year, to 2.7% at December 2013, from 2.8% in December 2012.

• Average effective rents in the metro area are $1,630 ($1.57 per SF). Rents in the Baltimore metro area saw a slight increase over the year with 0.3% rent growth, caused by strong growth in Baltimore City, while the suburbs experienced negative growth. Rents in the Baltimore suburbs have decreased by 1.4% since December 2012. Effective rents in the southern suburbs also decreased over the past 12 months, while effective rents in the northern suburbs increased by 1.3% during the same period, mostly due to the positive growth in Harford County. Effective rent growth in the Baltimore City submarkets showed promising growth, rising by 6.0% in the city as a whole, including Fells Point/Inner Harbor at 5.6% and 6.3% in the Downtown submarket. The Baltimore City submarkets outperformed the Baltimore suburban submarkets over the past year.

• The supply pipeline metro-wide at year-end 2013 is picking up compared to the pipeline at year-end 2012. About 11,698 units are under construction or planned and may deliver in the next 36 months in the Baltimore metro area, up almost 1,500 units from this time last year. These counts exclude Baltimore’s southernmost suburbs, Anne Arundel and Howard counties, whose units are also counted in the Washington metro pipeline (and do not account for attrition).

EFFECTIVE RENTAL RATE AND VACANCY RATEClass A Apartments | Baltimore

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

Average Effective Base Rent

Stabilized Vacancy

Source: Delta Associates, December 2013. * At Year-End 2013.

Stab

ilize

d V

acan

cy R

ate

Ave

rag

e Ef

fect

ive

Bas

e Re

nt

4.2% / YearLong-Term Rent Growth

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

2013*

• Lease-up pace for the four actively marketing projects in the Baltimore area currently averages 17 units per month per project. Two of the four projects were delivered in 2013. Projects that have recently stabilized have average lease-up paces of 11 per month at low-rise properties and nine per month at high-rise properties.

• Limited job growth and a limited supply in recent quarters have led to healthy rent growth and low vacancy in the Baltimore area. Despite this healthy performance, the number of units under construction is high, and as a result, we project that the 36-month supply will exceed the number of units that will be absorbed in the Baltimore area by the end of our 36-month forecast period. Baltimore’s supply/demand relationship indicates that vacancy will continue to edge up slightly and rent growth is likely to stay flat or experience declines over the next 24 months.

Hanover Brewers Hill, Baltimore, MDThe Hanover Company2013 Award Winner - Best Lease-Up Pace for a Baltimore Apartment Community

Page 8: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP8

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

STATE OF THE CLASS B APARTMENT MARKET YEAR-END 2013

Flight to Quality Depresses Occupancy But Rents Hold Up; Suburban Maryland Outperforms Balance of Metro Area2013 saw a 90 basis point rise in metro-wide vacancy for the Class B apartment market, from 4.4% last year to 5.3% this year. This increase was attributable to an increase in Northern Virginia and The District.

Rent declines in 2013 varied among sub-state areas and product types, but overall rents remained flat metro-wide. As metro-wide vacancy edged up, effective rents increased over the year in some submarkets, but decreased over the year in others.

• Suburban Maryland rents are up 1.5%

• Northern Virginia rents are down 1.0%

• District rents decreased by 1.1%

• Metro-wide low-rise increased 1.1%

• Metro-wide hi-rise decreased 1.9%

An overview of the Class B apartment market at Year-End 2013 by sub-state area; the trend since Year-End 2012:

Northern Virginia:

• Effective rents down 1.0%

• Vacancy up 140 basis points to 5.7%

Suburban Maryland:

• Effective rents down 1.5%

• Vacancy down 10 basis points at 4.9%

The District:

• Effective rents down 1.1%

• Vacancy up 190 basis points at 4.0%

Page 9: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

www.twmidatlanticmultifamily.com 9

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

What Does The Future Hold?

Job losses among lower wage earners and excess supply of Class A units in several submarkets had dampened the Class B apartment market across the Washington metro area in 2008 and 2009. This phenomenon abated in 2010 and into 2011. By late 2011, moderate job growth, constrained mortgage financing, and continued high prices for housing of all types put added demand on Class B apartments as one of the more affordable alternatives. However, by 2012, low turnover and uncertainty about future economic conditions had led to lower rent increases than would normally be expected at current levels of occupancy.

In 2014 we expect more of the same as 2013. Class B vacancy will continue to deteriorate as the large pipeline of Class A product is brought to market. With vacancy edging up, we expect rents to edge down for 2014.

However, these negative trends will be mitigated to some extent by the addition of low-wage jobs to the area in 2014 in leisure/hospitality, construction, retail, and other service industries. And these jobs support the demand for Class B product.

Commercial real estate moves in cycles, and this cycle will be shallow and short lived. In the meantime, here are specific opportunities we see for Class B projects:

1. Tune-up To Compete: Class A supply will increase dramatically in the coming quarters and may have a dampening effect on Class B rent growth opportunities. Therefore, renovation and repositioning is an essential defensive strategy.

2. Convenient locations and locations with job growth thrive. For example, South Arlington, Annandale, Silver Spring/Wheaton, Arlandria, Rockville, and Mount Vernon Square benefit due to their easy access to employment centers via highways (I-395, I-495, I-66, etc.) and/or the Metro.

3. Value add acquisitions: The differences in rent rates between Class A and Class B properties in specific submarkets continue to favor the investor who takes advantage of renovation and repositioning opportunities at select locations. Look for those submarkets with the greatest spread in rents between Class A and Class B apartments.

EFFECTIVE RENTAL RATE AND VACANCY RATEClass B Apartments | Washington Metro Area

TOTAL SALES VOLUMEClass B Apartments | Washington Metro Area

Source: Delta Associates; December 2013.

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average Effective Base Rent

Vacancy

Vaca

ncy

Rate

Ave

rag

e Ef

fect

ive

Bas

e Re

nt

Source: Delta Associates; December 2013.

$465,680

$934,002

$644,009

$1,417,675

$1,677,243

$2,114,280

$2,292,574

$1,333,498

$352,300

$711,680

$2,532,606

$2,110,756

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

$2,231,556

Sale

s Vo

lum

e (In

Tho

usan

ds)

Page 10: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP10

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

RENOVATION VOLUME COMPARISONS TO PRIOR PERIODS

AS OF # UNITS IN RENOVATION

Year-End 2013 31,878

Year-End 2012 33,832

Year-End 2011 33,254

CLASS B APARTMENT PROPERTY SALESThrough December 2013

NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS

TYPE OF PROPERTY

AVERAGE PRICE PER UNIT

28 Garden and Mid-Rise $159,040

10 High-Rise $227,588

The Warwick, Silver Spring, MDGreystar2013 Award Winner - Best Renovation, Mid-Atlantic

Page 11: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

www.twmidatlanticmultifamily.com 11

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

DELTA ASSOCIATESA Transwestern CompanyAn Experienced Provider of Commercial Real Estate Research, Advisory & Valuation Services

For 30 years, Transwestern’s research affiliate, Delta Associates, has provided expert research services to the commercial real estate industry. Delta Associates’ market data and analysis services make up a critical piece of the Transwestern process, enabling our clients to make sound and informed decisions concerning assets, investments and strategies. Industry leaders in national research and trend forecasting, Delta’s sophisticated methodologies are an advantage for complex client needs.

Valuation services.

Consulting and advisory services for real estate projects including market and demand/supply analyses, financial and development program analyses, and fiscal and economic impact studies.

Distressed asset recovery services to include property performance analysis and enhancement studies, debt structuring evaluation and note valuations, portfolio assembly due diligence, valuations and litigation support.

Subscription Data for select metro areas for office, apartment, condominium, retail, and industrial property types.

FoR MoRE iNFoRMATioN, plEASE CoNTACT uS AT:

www.DeltaAssociates.com

SuBSCRiBE To ThE Full MiD-ATlANTiC ClASS A AND B ApARTMENT MARkET REpoRT:

www.DeltaAssociates.com

Multifamily Practice Team

ApARTMENT pRACTiCE:

Senior Vice President, Apartment Practice Leader A. Grant Montgomery 703.535.3542Associate Justin DonaldsonAssociate Luke Gelber

CoNDoMiNiuM pRACTiCE:

Senior Vice President, Condominium Practice Leader William E. L. Rich 703.535.3545Associate Luke Gelber

EDiToR AND ChiEF ExECuTiVE: Gregory H. Leisch, CRE 703.836.5700

oF CouNSEl, ECoNoMiCS: Dr. Stephen S. Fuller 703.993.3186

DElTA’S MulTiFAMilY CApABiliTiES

Market Analysis and Feasibility Consulting by a Counselor of Real Estate (CRE)

Development Programming and Product Definition

“Tune-Up” or Repositioning Studies

Valuation Services

Financial Analysis and Public Approvals

Condominium Conversion Analysis

Quarterly Apartment and Condominium Market Publications

Page 12: Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK · Washington/Baltimore Apartment 2013 Q4 OUTLOOK A Market Report for Multifamily Investors & Executives 6700 Rockledge Drive, Suite

TRANSWESTERN MID-ATLANTIC MULTIFAMILY GROUP12

Washington Baltimore apartment outlook | 2013 Q4

TRANSWESTERNMid-Atlantic Multifamily GroupTranswestern and its predecessor, The Carey Winston Company, has played a central role in serving the Washington-Baltimore region multifamily community since 1971. To date, our group has transacted the sale of more than 385 multifamily projects in the Mid-Atlantic region, containing over 91,200 units. We are proud of our transaction activities, on behalf of our valued local, regional and national clients and of our role in the assembly of several of the most significant multifamily portfolios in the region. Beginning in 1995, our client services were elevated by our association with Delta Associates, the regional leader in multifamily market studies, consulting and reporting.

Over the past 43 years, through many market cycles and changes in multifamily ownership and management structures, our team has grown, remained diverse and prospered; as it will do going forward. We are pleased to move forward in 2014 as the Transwestern Mid-Atlantic Multifamily Group (www.twMidAtlanticMultifamily.com) and to be a part of an experienced national team of multifamily professionals covering the city markets of Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, Houston, Greenwich, New York, Austin, Seattle, Miami, Baltimore and Washington, D.C.

Transwestern is a privately held real estate firm specializing in agency leasing, property and facilities management, tenant advisory, capital markets, development, research and sustainability. The fully integrated enterprise leverages competencies in office, industrial, retail, multifamily and healthcare properties to add value for investors, owners and occupiers of real estate. Transwestern facilitates better decision-making for clients by combining penetrating local market intelligence and macro-market research through its affiliate, Delta Associates. Transwestern has 34 U.S. offices and assists clients through more than 181 offices in 40 countries as part of a strategic alliance with Paris-based BNP Paribas Real Estate. For more information, please visit www.transwestern.net and follow us on Twitter: @Transwestern.

We look forward to serving you in the period ahead.

Multifamily Sales:Executive Vice President, Director Dean Sigmon 301.896.9089 Executive Vice President, Director Robin Williams 301.896.9070 Vice President Justin Shay 301.896.9082 Marketing Associate Katie Rubino 301.896.9069

Mid-Atlantic Leadership:Executive Managing Director- Market Leader Phil McCarthy 301.896.9011 Executive Managing Director- Market Leader Keith Foery 301.896.9028 Managing Senior Vice President David Popp 301.896.9048 Managing Senior Vice President Ray Hite 301.896.9023