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Libya - Not All Revolutions are Equal
While thousands are dying in Libya deying
Gadda who has announced a ull-fedged
war against his people using tanks, ghter
jets, world and regional powers seem to only
care or their own agendas, regardless o
the moral considerations about the Libyan
people and their rebellion.
Syrian blogger and activist Yousse Al Azmeh
thinks there is such a crystal clear dichoto-
my: Syria and Algeria who attack the rebel-
The Libyan revolution is now a civil war
and it does not appear to be ending any
time soon. More importantly, this civil war
is now drawing in the key players in the re-
gion as they scramble to strengthen their
positions. By this I mean Iran, through
Syria, on the one hand, and the West on
the other. They key point o contention is
over the implementation o a no-y zoneover Libya, aimed at restricting Gaddafs
airorce rom inicting hurtul blows on
the rebels. Apart rom bringing up pain-
ul memories o the no-y zone orced
onto Iraq almost two decades ago, there
is another very important issue that is be-
ing ought over at this very moment. That
issue is whether NATO will have another
toehold in the region or not.
Unlike with the Tunisian and Egyptian
revolutions, the Libyan revolution is now
being ardently championed throughout
Western capitals. France has already rec-
ognised the Benghazi based ruling council
as the legitimate ruler o Libya, and it is
likely that other Western states will not be
ar behind. The United Kingdom has been
the key proponent o a no-y zone but this
has been severely contested by both China
and Russia. al Jazeera Arabic also report
that Syria is the only Arab country which
opposes this no-y zone.
The reason or this is very clear, and it
was made very eloquently by someone I
consider my political mentor. Syria is sup-
porting Gaddaf in his attempt to maintain
power, and may or may not be assistinghim directly with pilots and planes. It is
absolutely certain by now that Algeria is
also providing pilots and planes or bomb-
ing rebel positions in Libya and they have
been doing so or some weeks, in addition
the Polisario fghters rom the Western Sa-
hara have also been given passage through
Algeria to fght in Libya. From Syria (and
Algerias) point o view, the revolutionary
wave sweeping the region must be con-
tained. It is absolutely vital or Iran that
Syria not be swept or aected by this tide
o unrest. Syria is the lieline or Hezbul-
lah and a vital support or Hamas in Gaza,both politically and morally. In turn, Syria
is quite prepared to burn down the house
next door to prevent a fre rom spreading
to her own roo, as is Algeria.
This sentiment is shared by the Gul
states and other Arab countries, however,
whilst Saudi Arabia and what remains o
Americas allies in the region support the
crushing o the rebellion with the assis-
tance o the West, Iran and Syria wouldpreer to maintain Gaddaf, as a matter
o realpolitik, than allow the West a stron-
ger position in the region. The opportunis-
tic Amr Moussa is, in the meantime, ar-
dently supporting a no-y zone at any cost,
hoping to ride the wave o revolutionary
sentiment that sweeped aside Mubarak.
Finally, the timing or an Iranian ship to
arrive in the Mediterranean so soon ater
the all o Mubarak was clearly an attempt
at political one-upmanship.
Ultimately any moral considerations
about the Libyan people and their rebellion
is not what anybody is concerned about. At
stake is the political uture or the region,
meaning not all revolutions are equal and
not all dictators deserve to be toppled. At
least not yet...
**UPDATE** Turkey has announced on
Monday that it is opposed to a no-y zone
in Libya, especially one that is imposed by
the West.
lion earing the revolutionary wave might
sweep them too, and the west and their allies
on the other hand who champion the rebel-
lion aiming at assume power over the region.
Maysaloonhttp://tinyurl.com/nbqovc
http://tinyurl.com/65ojos2
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2011 25 16 www.wasla.anhri.net 15Is Saudi Arabia ready or a revolution?
As revolution sweeps the Arab countries,
Saudis began to call or their own acebook-
powered revolution, with a list o demands
including a constitutional monarchy and
a call or public reedoms and respect or
human rights. Disappointgly, though, a
planned Day o Rage on March, 13, was
put down thanks to a huge propaganda cam-
paign by Saudi authorities that the demon-
strations were an Iranian conspiracy (any
resemblance?) and that Islamic extremists
were going to manipulate, and also because
o the heavy security presence in the streets.
Ater the unprecedented ailure o the day
o rage in Saudi Arabia, there started a huge
debate among activists. While some see it
very disappointing, others think the revolu-
tion hasnt ailed, and that the events have
The Arabian Peninsula has recently been
subject to, what has widely been called, the
Arab worlds home brew wave o revolu-
tion. The most iconic o these has been the
revolution in Egypt that saw millions take
to the street orcing the incumbent presi-
dent to ee in the wake o peaceul protests
that barely lasted a ortnight. In context, thebloodiest o these has been the ongoing wave
o protests in Libya that have seen hundreds
already all to the violence inicted by the
state military. The most signifcant o these,
however, has yet to take place.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab worlds political and
economic heavy weight, has so ar remained
sheltered rom the tide that is counting down
Arab monarchies and dictatorial rules, one
ater the other. Analysts, however, have been
quick in orming the view that the oil export-
er, too, is ripe or change. They cite socioeco-
nomic indicators, demographic breakdowns
and unemployment numbers to support their
case. And whilst the conditions in Saudi Ara-
bia are, no doubt, not very dierent romthose prevailing in its neighboring Arab coun-
tries, whether or not the Arab youth which
comprises almost two thirds o the countrys
native demographic can be galvanized or
such a cause is a question that ew have been
able to answer.
One o the more popular acts that are being
thrown around, with rough approximations, is
the demographic break down o the native
population. Almost 70 % o the native popula-
tion is under 30 years o age and approximate-
ly 40 % o this population is unemployed. This,
o course, is notwithstanding the 22% o the
population that lives below the poverty line
in what is one o the largest Arab economies.
Interestingly, while all o these numbers are
traded around in most academic discussions
about any impending revolution in Saudi Ara-
bia, one very important acet is oten ignored:
the willingness o the Arab youth to take the
initiative. The attempts at an organized pro-
test against the government so ar one in
mid February and another on 11th March
ailed miserably when, despite several hun-
dred confrmed attendees, protesters ailed
to even make it to triple digits amidst heavy
presence o security contingents.
Fortunately, this mindset seems to have
changed already, within the span o one short
ortnight ater the alleged murder o one o
the chie HYPERLINK http://www.monster-
sandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/ar-
ticle_1623088.php organizers (2)o one such
protest rally by state security orces. This is
being viewed largely as the wake up call and
the impetus that the Saudi revolution move-
ment needed. The act that a human lie was
the much-needed shot in the arm should be a
testament to just how severely desensitized
the Saudi youth has become to its own pre-
dicament. This is a country where the eco-
nomic disparity between a large royal amily
comprising o a ew hundred members and
the rest o the 26 million population is the di-
erence between a several hundred billion dol-lar economy and a $24,000 per c apita income,
this is a statement indeed.
At this point, many people are criticizing
the Saudi Kings attempt to bribe his subjects
into submission with the recent announce-
ment o $37 billion in reorms and social
uplit as too little too late. The act, however,
is that this years reorms have only come to
light because o the ast spreading tide o
uprisings across the Arabian peninsula. King
Abd Allah bin Abdal Aziz has been oering
similar, albeit smaller, reorm packages as
token payments to his people since as early
as 2005-06. I the correlation between aide
packages, civil unrest and the inside reports
o the socioeconomic conditions in Saudi Ara-bia are to be trusted, then the government has
been paciying its people with token money
or one too many years. Now might fnally be
a good time to set its house in order lest the
people fnally wake up or once.
Right now, all signs are pointing towards
just that. With growing activism and increas-
ing state censuring (many times by virtue o
orce) o all such activities the Saudi youth
are fnding themselves running out o options
despite wanting the incumbent government
to persist. Unortunately, in case o a revolu-
tion, the Saudi youth might still fnd them-
selves stranded with the same problems, only
this time, there would be no one else let to
blame or to placate their problems. The power
vacuum let, in the wake o a potential ouster
o the monarchy, will leave a gaping hole in
the abric o the Arab political set up that will
leave political actors scrambling or a piece o
the pie.
This is a situation that the Saudis are nei-
ther used to nor equipped to handle. They have
been a people used to the luxuries that are al-
lowed to them by their rulers and any signs
o discontent over their lot in lie has been
trampled with abandon by the ruling elite.
Seeing a real opportunity to make amends to
their predicament might see them rushing
or a change, but the immediate uture ater
that is a looming uncertainty. In such a situ-
ation, public health reorms, education and
employment opportunities are not something
that will be easy to come by or to set up. Some-
how, this is something that the current crop
o protesters have realized and they are, thus,
demanding smaller changes that do not result
http://tinyurl.com/5wkpwk6
An article titled Report: Saudi Face-
book activist planning protest shot
dead reerring to the alleged murder
o Saudi blogger Faisal Ahmed Abdul-
Ahadwas, 27, who was calling or a
Day o Rage on March 11, publishedon Monsters& Critics website (March
2, 2011)
http://tinyurl.com/4uuom8u
shown how repressive government is, uel-
ing anger and dissent and mobilizing popu-
lation against the Kingdom.
Rabab Khan, writer, poet and blogger thinks
Saudis will never be the same stereo-typed
lthy rich passive people, however asking
the question: Will the Saudi youth be able
to awaken rom its slumber, and what will
be the price? And more importantly, are the
Saudi people ready to take on the responsi-
bility and the challenge that a democracy
will throw their way and is the west ready
or it?
in the immediate ouster o the ruling amily
but instead result in constitutionalization o
the political set up and a more transparent
governing body. This does not seem to sit well
with the royal house, which is instead willing
only to oer extravagant uplit reorms and
an iron fst on the dissenting with no promise
o transparency or a constitution.
Such an oer, which does not really imply
any real participation on part o the public in
the governing body, is not what the revolu-
tionaries want. And i plans proceed in line
with the path that they are being driven to
take, the resulting power vacuum will result
in even greater unrest and uncertainty. Insta-
bility and an ouster in the most inuential o
the Arab countries will encourage the tide to
turn over and spread across those Arab na-
tions as well which have so ar largely been
bystanders to the show, regardless o what be-
comes o Saudi Arabias internal crises. Such
a sudden change will not bode well or the
Western powers who have vested interests
in the region. These are major oil consumers
and have invested extensively in the power
corridors o these nations. That a revolution
in Saudi Arabia could spark a revolution in the
entirety o the Arab world makes this move-
ment even more ocal to the Arab cause o
nationalism.
Moreover, the act that any disruption in
the daily proceedings in Saudi Arabia could
disrupt the entire oil supply chain amongst
the entirety o the OPEC drives this point
home even more. This is both worrisome and
problematic or the West that depends exclu-
sively on this region to uel both their econo-
mies and their wars, with the ortunes o the
US especially tied to those o this region. It
is a given that US will have to deal cautiously
with this situation and consider careully
which side it opts or and proceed even more
cautiously with its dealings with whosoever
comes into power next, provided there is a
change o hands at the helm. Since it is now
a tradition amongst the larger Muslim com-
munity, barring the ruling elite, to blame most
and many o their misortunes on the west
the US specifcally, how the US proceeds rom
here will be the highlight to watch out or. It
will, without doubt have to deal with an unsat-
isfed Muslim leadership on its hands one
that might be difcult to beriend. In either
case, there will be no easy decision or the
Obama administration to make since a large
part o its economy is dependent on the Arab,
and more specifcally the Saudi, oil exports.
The conditions in Saudi Arabia may be ripe
or the revolution; the nepotism amongst its
ruling elite pushing or a change and the op-
pression amongst its populace ueling the fre.
However, the hanging question mark remains
will the Saudi youth be able to awaken rom
its slumber on schedule come March 18th, and
what will be the price? More importantly, are
the Saudi people ready to take on the respon-
sibility and the challenge that a democracy
will throw their way and is the west ready or
it?
Rabab Khanhttp://tinyurl.com/yzmr8xo
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