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THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF WATER RESOURCES MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS AND HOUSING

THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA THE PROJECT FOR ASSESSING AND

INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS INTO THE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLANS

FOR BRANTAS AND MUSI RIVER BASINS

Water Resources Management Plan

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME-II MAIN REPORT

December 2019

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. CTI ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD. THE UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO

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THE PROJECT FOR

ASSESSING AND INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS INTO THE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLANS

FOR BRANTAS AND MUSI RIVER BASINS

(Water Resources Management Plan)

Composition of Final Report Volume I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Volume II MAIN REPORT Part 1 General

Part 2 Study for Brantas River Basin

Part 3 Study for Musi River Basin

Part 4 Capacity Strengthening

Part 5 Conclusions and Recommendations Volume III SUPPORTING REPORT & HANDBOOK (1/2) Supporting Report A : HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULICS

(Brantas River Basin)

Supporting Report B : HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULICS (Musi River Basin)

Supporting Report C : HYDROGEOLOGY AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT

Supporting Report D : SPATIAL PLAN AND LAND USE

Supporting Report E : AGRICULTURE AND IRRIGATION

Supporting Report F : WATER SUPPLY AND SEWERAGE Volume III SUPPORTING REPORT & HANDBOOK (2/2) Supporting Report G : RIVER FACILITIES MANAGEMENT

Supporting Report H : SABO MANAGEMENT

Supporting Report I : WET LAND MANAGEMENT AND WATERSHED CONSERVATION

Supporting Report J : ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CONSIDERATIONS

Supporting Report K : IMPLEMENTATION PLAN AND COST ESTIMATE

Supporting Report L : ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND PROJECT EVALUATION

REPORT ON COMPONENT 1（ANNEX）

HANDBOOK Volume IV DATA BOOK/CD

Brantas River Basin

Cost Estimate: August 2017 Price

Exchange Rate: USD 1.0 = IDR 13,341.82 = JPY 109.84

Musi River Basin

Cost Estimate: March 2019 Price

Exchange Rate: USD 1.0 = IDR 14,230.00 = JPY 111.10

P-1

1. Brantas River Basin (1/2)

Mrican Barrage Jatimlerek Rubber Dam

New Lengkong Dam Gunugsari Barrage

Sutami Dam Wlingi Dam

P-2

1. Brantas River Basin (2/2)

Sengguruh Dam (Maintenance Dredging in the

Reservoir)

Wonorejo Dam

Porong Automatic Water Level Gauging Station

Ploso Water Quality Monitoring Station

Seminar (Surabaya) Strategic Environmental Assessment

P-3

2. Musi River Basin (1/2)

Ampera Bridge (Musi River) Sekayu (Musi River)

Tidal Swamp Area (Talang I) Fresh Water Swamp Area (Rumbutan)

Komering Irrigation Area (Belitang) Perjaya Headwork (Komering Irrigation System)

P-4

2. Musi River Basin (2/2)

Water Vang Head Work (Tughumulyo Irrigation System)

Groundwater Observation Well at Mambang

BMKG Kenten Station Pelindo-II Tide Level Station at Boon Baru

Plenary Meeting in Bengkulu at BWS Sumatra VII

Plenary Meeting in Palembang at BBWS Sumatra VIII

i

Abbreviations English Indonesia

ADB Asian Development Bank -

ADCP Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler -

AMDAL Environmental Impact Assessment Analisis Mengenai Dampak Lingkungan

APBD Regional Revenue and Expenditures Budget Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Daerah

APBN National Budget Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara

BAKOSURTANAL

National Coordinating Agency for Surveying and Mapping

Badan Koordinasi Survei dan Pemetaan Nasional

BAPPEDA Regional Planning Agency Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah

BAPPENAS Ministry of National Development Planning Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional

BAU Business as Usual

BBWS Large River Basin Organization Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai

BCM Business Continuity Management -

BCP Business Continuity Plan -

BCR Benefit Cost Ratio -

BIG Geospatial Information Agency Badan Informasi Geospasial

BKSDA Natural Resources Conservation Agency Balai Konservasi Sumber Daya Air

BLHD Regional Environment Agency Badan Linkungan Hidup Daerah

BLU - Badan Layanan Umum

BMKG Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency

Bandan Metorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika

BNPB National Disaster Management Agency Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana

BOD Bio-chemical Oxygen Demand

BPBD Regional Agency for Disaster Management Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah

BPDAS Center for Watershed Management Balai Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai dan Hutan Lindung Unda Anyar

BPDASHL Brantas-Sampean Watershed and Protected Forest Management Organization

Balai Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai dan Hutan Lindung

BPPW Regional Settlement Infrastructure Agency Balai Prasarana Permukiman Wilayah

BPS Central Agency on Statistics Badan Pusat Stasistik

BRG Peatland Restoration Agency Badan Restorasi Gambut

COD Chemical Oxygen Demand -

COP Conference of Parties -

DANIDA Danish International Development Agency -

D/D Detailed Design -

DEM Digital Elevation Model -

DGWR Directorate General of Water Resources Direktorate Jenderal Sumber Daya Air

Dishut Department of Forestry Dinas Kehutanan

DLH Department of Environmental Dinas Lingkungan Hidup

DMI Domestic, Municipal and Industry -

DNPI National Council on Climate Change Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim

DO Dissolved Oxygen -

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction -

DPRKPCK Regional Development Planning Agency Dinas Perumahan Rakyat, Kawasan Permukiman dan Cipta Karya

DSM Digital Surface Model -

DTM Digital Terrain Model -

EC Electric Conductivity -

EGM96 Earth Gravity Model 1996 -

ii

English Indonesia EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Analisis Mengenai Dampak Lingkungan

EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return -

ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation -

ESDM Energy and Mineral Resources Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral

EWS Early Warning System Sistem Peringatan Eini

F/S Feasibility Study -

FFWS Flood Forecasting and Warning System Sistem Peramalan dan Peringatan Banjir

FPL Flood Protection Level -

FSL Full Supply Level -

FY Fiscal Year -

GCM Global Climate Model -

GCP Geodetic Control Point -

GDP Gross Domestic Product -

GHG Greenhouse Gas -

GIS Geographic Information System -

GIZ German Corporation for International Cooperation

-

GOI Government of Indonesia -

GOJ Government of Japan -

GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product -

GSM Global System for Mobile communications -

HDI Human Development Index -

HDSS Hydrometeorological Decision Support System

-

HydroSHEDS Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales

-

IBA Important Bird Area -

ICCSR Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap

-

IDR Indonesia Rupiah -

IEE Initial Environmental Evaluation -

IMB Building construction permit Izin Mendinikan Bangnan

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -

iRIC International River Interface Cooperation -

IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Air Terpadu

JATIM East Java Jawa Timur

JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation -

JCM Joint Crediting Mechanism -

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency -

KLHK Ministry of Environment and Forestry Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan

KP Design Criteria for Irrigation Networks Kriteria Perencanaan

KPH Forest management unit Kesatuan Pemangkuan Hutan

KPHP Unity of Production Forest Management Kesatuan Pengelolaan Hutan Produksi

LARAP Land Acquisition and Resettlement Action Plan

-

LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate -

LP2B Preservation of sustainable food production base

Lahan Pertanian Pangan Berkelanjutan

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English Indonesia LWL Low Water Level -

MEF Ministry of Environment and Forestry Kementerian Lingkungan dan Kehutanan

MSBL Musi-Banyuasin-Sugihan-Lemau Musi-Sugihan-Banyuasin-Lemaure

MDGs Millennium Development Goals -

MH Rainy season Musim Hujan

MLIT Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation and Tourism

-

MK Dry season Musim Kemarau

MOL Minimum Operation Level -

M/P Master Plan -

MPL Micro Pulse Lidar -

MPW Ministry of Public Works Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum

MPWH Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing

Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat

MSA Multiple Scenario Approach -

NGO Non-Governmental organization -

NPV Net Present Value -

NRW Non-Revenue Water -

O&M Operation & Maintenance -

ODA Official Development Assistance -

OKI - Ogan Komering Ilir

OKU - Ogan Komering Ulu

P2AT Groundwater Development Project Proyek Pengembangan Air Tanah

PALI - Penukal Abab Lematang Ilir

PCO Point of Cost Optimum -

PDAM Indonesian Regional Water Utility Company

Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum

PELINDO Indonesian Port Corporation PT Pelabuhan Indonesia

PIRIMP Participatory Irrigation Rehabilitation and Management Project

-

PJT-I Jasa Tirta I Public Corporation Perum Jasa Tirta I

PKL Develop Local Activity Centers -

PKN National Activity Center -

PKW Regional Activity Center -

PLN State Electric Company Perusahaan Listrik Negara

POLA Water Resources Management Strategic Plan

Rencana Strategis Manajemen Sumber Daya Air

PP Government regulation Peraturan Pemerintah

PSDA Water Resources Management Pengelolaan Samer Daya Air

PUSAIR Research center for water resources Pusat Penelitan dan Pengembangan Sumber Daya Air

RAD-GRK National Action Plan on Greenhouse Gas Rencana Aksi Daerah Penurunan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca

RAN-API National climate change adaptation action plan

Rencana Aksi Nasional Adaptasi Peubahan Iklim

PANPI National Action Plan Addressing Climate Change

Rencana Aksi Nasional Perubahan Iklim

RBO River Basin Organization Balai Wilayah Sungai

RENCANA Water Resources Management Implementation Plan

Rencana Penerapan Manajemen Sumber Daya Air

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English Indonesia RO Reverse Osmosis -

RPJM Mid-term Development Plan Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menegah

RPJMD Medium Term Development Plan of RegionRencana Pembangunan Jangka Menegah Daerah

RPJP Long-term Development Plan Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Panjang

RTH Green open space Ruang Terbuka Hijau

RTRW Spatial Plan Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah

RUPTL Electricity Supply Business Plan Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik

RWL Reservoir Water Level -

SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment -

SHM Stakeholder Meetings -

SHVP Surabaya Haven Vaste Peil Surabaya Haven Vloed Peil

SID Study Investigation Design -

SIH3 Information system for hydrology, hydrogeology and hydrometeorology

Sistem Informasi Hidologi Hidorogeologi Hidroklimat

SNI Indonesian National Standard Standar National Indonesia

SPPL Statement of readiness to manage and monitor the environment

Surat Pernyataan Pengololaan Lingkungan

SRI System Rice Intensification -

SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission -

SSBSAP South Sumatra Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan

-

TKPSDA Water Resources Management Coordination Team

Tim Koordinasi Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Air

TOT Training of Trainers -

TPA Development of regional Ultimate Waste Management System

-

TRGD Regional Peat Restoration Service Team Tim Restorasi Gambut Daerah

UKL-UPL Environmental Management and Monitoring Plan

Upaya Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup dan Upaya Pemantauan Lingkungang Hidup

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

-

UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

-

USLE United Soil Loss Equation -

UU Law Undang-Undang

VAT Value Added Tax -

WATSP Structural Adjustment Program of Water Resources Sector

-

WB World Bank -

WEB-DHM Water Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model

-

WREFR & CIP, Water Resources Existing Facilities Rehabilitation & Capacity Improvement Project

-

WUA Water Users Association -

WWF World Wide Fund for Nature -

The Project for Assessing and Integrating Climate Change Impacts into the Water Resources Management Plans for Brantas and Musi River Basins Final Report (Water Resources Management Plan) Summary

Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. December 2019 CTI Engineering International Co., Ltd. The University of Tokyo

SUMMARY

<< GENERAL >>

1. INTRODUCTION

(1) The Project consists of two components, which are:

Component-1: Climate Change Impact Assessment and Runoff Analysis, and

Component-2: Water Resources Management Plan.

This Final Report (FR) deals with the Component-2.

(2) The project area covers the following two river basins (hereinafter referred to as “both

river basins”), of which the location maps are shown in the frontispieces of this report.

Brantas River basin in Jawa (approximately 12,000 km2)

Musi River basin in Sumatra (approximately 60,000 km2)

The Musi River basin in the Project includes downstream lowland swamp areas of the

Banyuasin and Sugihan River basins adjacent to this river basin.

(3) The objectives of the Component-2 are:

Assessment of water resources management risk/vulnerability under climate change

impacts and formulation of proposals for reflecting climate change impacts in water

resources management by using the outputs of the Component-1,

Preparation of guidelines applicable to other river basins in Indonesia, and

Capacity enhancement for water resources management in consideration of climate

change impacts in Indonesia through the two objectives above.

(4) The project period (revised) of the Component-2 is 79 months from June 2013 to

December 2019, and is divided into Phase 1 and Phase 2. Figure S-1 shows the overall

schedule of the Component-2.

Source: JICA Project Team 2

Figure S-1 Schedule of the Project (Component-2)

Year

Month 5 6 7 8 9-12 1 2 3 4 5-7 8-12 1-3 4-12 1-3 4 5 6 7 8-12 1-3 4-6 7-10 11 12 1 2 3 4WorkPlan

Year 2020

Month 5 6 7 8 9-12 1 2 3 4 5-7 8-12 1-3WorkPlan

2015 2016 2017 2018

2018 2019

Reports PR4 PR5 DFR FR

Reports IC/R PR1 IT/R PR2 PR3

2013 2014

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The scope of each phase is as follows:

(a) Phase 1: June 2013 to June 2016

Collection of data and information to be used for the Component-1,

Assessment of water resources management risk/vulnerability and resilience under

climate change impacts, particularly in terms of flood and drought in both river

basins,

(b) Phase 2: July 2016 to December 2019

Proposal for reflecting climate change impacts in POLA and RENCANA

(hereinafter referred to as “the water resources management plans”), and

Preparation of guidelines which are to be applicable to the water resources

management plans in other river basins in Indonesia, taking climate change issues

into account.

Besides, capacity enhancement for formulation of water resources management plans with

strategies for climate change impacts in Indonesia will be conducted in both phases.

(5) This FR is prepared as the product which states the project outcomes in the Phase 1 and

the Phase 2 works conducted from June 2013 to December 2019.

2. MOVEMENT RELEVANT TO WATER RESOURCES IN INDONESIA

2.1 Movement of River Basin Water Resources Management

(1) Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) at River Basin Level

Indonesia stipulated 1) role-sharing among central and local governments, 2) fulfillment of

basic human needs, 3) introduction of water right and 4) water resources conservation in the

Law on Water Resources No.7/2004 (see “Section 2.3”), pressing forward with

decentralization after 1999 and the Structural Adjustment Program of Water Resources Sector

(WATSP) led by the World Bank. According to these stipulations, it has been important in

Indonesia to execute integrated water resources management (IWRM) at a river basin level

through participation of the central/local governments and other stakeholders.

(2) River Basin Organization (RBO)

The ministerial regulations, such as No.11A/PRT/M/2006, No.12/PRT/M/2006,

No.13/PRT/M/ 2006 and No.26/PRT/M/2006, decided that 5,590 river basins covering the

whole Indonesian territory be divided into 133 river regions, and 63 river regions of these be

directly managed by MWP (PU). MWP established 33 river basin organizations (RBO;

“Balai” in Bahasa Indonesia) in respective sites: RBOs shall be engaged in development and

management of these regions. As for the other river basins, about 50 RBOs to be controlled

by respective provincial governments have been gradually organized.

(3) POLA and RENCANA

Indonesia has been formulating the following plans (statutory plans) to appropriately realize

water resources management for 63 river regions, following the Law on Water Resources

No.7/2004:

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(a) POLA (Water Resources Management Strategic Plan）which delineates the direction of

river basin management, and

(b) RENCANA (Water Resources Management Implementation Plan）which is a concrete

plan for implementation of river basin management on the basis of POLA.

Both plans are provided in Government Regulation No.42/2008 for water resources

management in Indonesia, wherein several key contents are:

Water resources management is conducted based on water resources management

policies at the national, provincial and regency/municipal levels.

The water resources management policies consist of the aspects on water resources

conservation, water resources utilization, water resources control and information

systems.

POLA is formulated for twenty years, and can be evaluated at least every five years.

And

RENCAN is also formulated for twenty years and can be evaluated at least every five

years through public consultation.

(4) TKPSDA (Water Resources Management Coordination Team)

TKPSDA, which is usually chaired by the head of BAPPEDA, is formed as a coordinating

organization at the river basin level, of which the major functions are:

Consultation with agencies concerned for acceleration of IWRM in river basin in

charge,

Promotion of integration and coordination of interests and concessions, etc. among

sectors, regions and other stakeholders related to water resources management in river

basin in charge,

Monitoring and evaluation on implementation of programs and plans on water

resources management in river basin in charge, and

Draft POLA deliberation/formulation and draft RENCANA deliberation.

(5) Role Sharing among Central and Local Governments

The role sharing of central and local governments provided in the Law on Water Resources

No.7/2004 regarding major items of water resources management is presented in Table S-1.

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Table S-1 Role Sharing among Central and Local Governments

Roles Central GovernmentProvincial

Government Regency/Municipal

Governments

Jurisdictional areas

Cross-provincial, cross-country, and national strategic river basins

Cross-regency/ municipal river basins

River basins in regency/ municipality

Preparation of norm, standards, etc.

Preparation of norm, standards, guidelines, manuals - -

Flood control Nation-wide flood control

Province-wide flood control

Regency/municipality wide flood control

Construction/ improvement of irrigation canals

Primary and secondary irrigation canals in Jurisdictional areas

(Same as the left) (Same as the left)

Operation/ maintenance and improvement of irrigation systems

Primary and secondary irrigation systems (irrigation areas of more than 3,000ha)

Primary and secondary irrigation systems (irrigation areas of more than 1,000ha and less than 3,000ha)

Primary and secondary irrigation systems (irrigation areas of less than 1,000ha)

Source: Pre-evaluation Report on Project for Capacity Development of RBOs for Practical Water Resources Management in Indonesia, JICA, May 2009

2.2 Movement of Climate Change Measures in Indonesia

The geographical position of Indonesian is very vulnerable to climate change impacts, and

Indonesia has been making its efforts and taking actions towards the implementation of the

commitments as a Non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC). In 2009, the Indonesia’s President committed at the G-20

meeting in Pittsburgh and at COP15 in Copenhagen to an ambitious, world-leading target of

26% reduction in carbon emissions from Business As Usual (BAU) by 2020 to participate in

the reduction of GHG emissions. With this commitment, Indonesia has been taking a low

carbon development path.

(1) Institutional context

To effectively cope with UNFCCC, the GOI has made a number of significant steps in

mainstreaming climate change issues. The first step was the issuance of the National Action

Plan addressing Climate Change (MoE, November 2007). The National Development

Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) developed a Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR,

December 2009), in order to bridge the said National Action Plan into the 5 year National Mid-

Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2010-2014, and to provide inputs for the subsequent

RPJMN until 2030.

(2) Organizations concerned

The institutional arrangements coping with climate change have been strengthened at the

national and ministerial/agency levels in Indonesia.

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(a) National level

The “National Council on Climate Change (DNPI)” to be chaired by the President of Indonesia

was established as a cross-ministerial organization in July 2008 according to Presidential

Decree (PD) No.46/2008, of which the functions are:

Formulation of national policies, strategies and action plans,

Coordination of activities,

Formulation of policy and procedures of carbon credit mechanism,

Monitoring and evaluation of climate change activities, and

Aggrandizement of the country’s position through fulfilling its responsibilities to the

developed countries.

(b) Ministerial level

Major ministries coping with projection of climate change impacts in Indonesia are: (i)

Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and (ii) Ministry of Public

Works and Housing (MPWH, formerly MPW).

2.3 Repeal of Law No.7/2004 on Water Resources

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the Law No. 7/2004 on Water Resources was

unconstitutional for the following reason, and decided to revoke this law on 18 February 2015:

“The Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia (1945) secures a citizen’s right to use water.

Hence, a certain restriction shall be laid on the entry of private sector companies into water-

supply business.”

JICA Project Team 2 for the Component-2 carried out hearings in the Directorate of Water

Resources Management, MPWH and also PJT-I in January 2016, aiming to clarify influences

of this repeal on the Project. Through these hearings, it was confirmed that the Project can

move forward as planned.

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<< STUDY FOR BRANTAS RIVER BASIN >>

3. CURRENT CONDITIONS OF BRANTAS RIVER BASIN

3.1 Physical Setting

(1) The Brantas River basin, the second largest river basin in Java, lies between 110˚ 30’ and

112˚ 55’ east longitude and between 7˚ 01’ and 8˚ 15’south latitude in East Java Province.

It is bounded by Mt. Bromo (EL. 2,392m) and Mt. Semeru (EL. 3,676m) in the east, a

series of low Kidul ridges (EL. 300-500m) in the south, Mt. Willis (EL. 2,169m) and its

families in the west, and Kedung ridges and the Madura strait in the north. The Arjuno

Mountain Complex consisting of Mt. Arjuno (EL. 3,339m), Mt. Butak (EL. 2,868m) and

Mt. Kelud (EL.1,731m) is located in the center of the basin.

(2) The Brantas River originates from the spring of Mt. Arjuno and flows down clockwise

round Mt. Kelud. The average riverbed slop gradually changes from 1/200 near the

river origin to 1/2,000 in the middle reaches. The Brantas River has a catchment area

of about 12,000 km2 and a length of about 320 km at the point immediately upstream

from New Lengkong Barrage where it bifurcates into the Surabaya and the Porong Rivers.

Both rivers flow in a very flat plain lower than 25 m in elevation (SHVP) after the

bifurcation

(3) The present climate in the Brantas River basin is dominated by the tropical monsoon.

Normally, the rainy and the dry seasons prevail from November to April and from May

to October, respectively. The average annual rainfall over the basin is around 2,100 mm

with a variation of 2,250 mm in a water-rich year and 1,850 mm in a drought year. The

annual mean temperature ranges from 24.6 ˚C in Malang to 26.8 ˚C in Porong and the

annual mean relative humidity ranges from 74 % to 83 %.

(4) The sea water level at a port in Surabaya City varies from -180 cm to 160 cm with the

daily fluctuations of 320 cm at maximum and 70 cm at minimum.

(5) Major aquifers in the Brantas River basin distribute along the Brantas River and its

tributaries. A hydrogeological map of 1/250,000 including the Brantas River basin was

published in 1984 by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (currently called “Ministry of

Energy and Mineral Resources”) as shown in Figure S-2. The hydrogeological

classifications in the map are explained in Table S-2.

S-6



Table S-2 Hydrogeological Classifications in Brantas River Basin

Classifications Aquifer Feature Descriptions

AA1 Extensive and highly productive aquifers

Moderate to high transmissivity; water table or piezometric head of groundwater near or above land surface; wells yield generally 5 to 10L/s, locally more than 50L/s.

AA2 Extensive and productive aquifers

Aquifer of moderate transmissivity; water table or piezometric head of groundwater near or above land surface; wells yield generally 5 to 10L/s, in some places more than 20L/s.

AA3 Extensive, moderately productive aquifers

Aquifer of low to moderate transmissivity; groundwater table from near land surface to a depth of more than 10m; wells yield generally less than 5L/s.

AA4 Locally, moderately, productive aquifers

Mostly incoherent aquifer of low thickness and transmissivity; wells yield generally less than 5L/s.

AB1 Extensive and highly productive aquifers

Aquifers of largely varying transmissivity; depth to water table varies in wide range; wells yield generally more than 5L/s.

AB2 Extensive, moderately productive aquifers

Aquifers of largely varying transmissivity; depth to groundwater generally great; wells yield generally less than 5L/s.

AB3 Locally productive aquifers

Aquifers of largely varying transmissivity; generally no groundwater exploitation by drilling to great depth to the groundwater table; locally small springs can be captured.

AC1 Highly to moderate productive aquifers

Groundwater flow is limited to fissures, fracture zones and solution channels; well yields and spring discharges vary in an extremely wide range.

AD1

Poor productive aquifers of local importance

Generally very low transmissivity; locally, limited shallow groundwater resources can be obtained in valleys and weathered zones of solid rocks

AD2

Region without exploitable groundwater

－


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Source: Adapted from Hydrogeological Map of 1/250,000 (1984), Ministry of Mines and Energy

Figure S-2 Hydrogeological Map for Brantas River Basin

(6) The natural environment situations in the Brantas River basin are as summarized

hereunder.

(a) Recorded forestland is 520,498.7ha (2015, Review Pola): wherein, production forest is

354,944ha (68.2%), protection forest is 113,918ha (21.9%) and conservation forest is

51,582ha (9.9%).

(b) Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park is overlapping with the Brantas watershed. No

wildlife reserve (Suaka Margasatwa) is located in the watershed, while three nature

reserves (Cagar Alam) are set in Besowo Gadungan, Manggis Gadungan and Gunung

Abang. Besides, five of Important Bird Area (IBA) are located in the watershed.

(c) The watershed is in East Java Ecoregion, where tropical rainforest vegetation and 103

species of mammals are recorded: important to be protected as endemic species are Javan

Warty Pig (Sus verrucosus, endangered/EN), Yellow-throated Marten (Martes flavigula

robinsoni) and Javan Leopard (Panthera pardus melas) among others.

(d) In terms of landscape, Gunung Baung Nature Tourism Park (Taman Wisata Alam) and

Tretes Nature Tourism Park are designated. Besides, Batu area is famous in Indonesia as

a tourist destination.

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3.2 Socio-economy

(1) The Brantas River basin is situated in East Java Province, and nine (9) regencies and six (6)

cities included in Table S-3 are located in the basin. The population in the basin was about

16.2 million in 2010 and projected to be about 16.9 million in 2015.

Table S-3 Regencies and Cities Located in Brantas River Basin

Regencies Sidoarjo, Mojokerto, Malang, Blitar, Kediri, Nganjuk, Jombang, Tulungagung, Trenggalek

Cities Surabaya, Mojokerto, Malang, Batu, Kediri, Blitar

Source: Brantas River Basin Water Resources Management Plan (2010)

(2) The present land use map prepared by BBWS Brantas indicates that about 65% of land

in the Brantas River basin is utilized for agricultural purpose and many farmers are

engaged in food crop cultivation work.

(3) The historical trend of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in East Java Province

reached IDR. 1,482 trillion in 2017 at the constant price level of 2010. Compared with

the value in 2013, the GRDP increased to 24% in real term. The average annual growth

rate is estimated at 5.6% for the period from 2013 to 2017. In the industrial sector, the

“Manufacturing” sector produces 29% of the whole GRDP in East Java Province, and

“Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicle”, “Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery” and

“Construction” sectors follow.

(4) The average monthly salary in East Java Province was Rp. 1,786,000 in 2016,

approximately 18% lower than the average of whole Indonesia. The unemployment rate

is 4.14% in 2016, 1.36% lower than the national average.

3.3 Current State of Water Sector

(1) East Java Province prepared regional development plans related to water resources, such

as a long-term development plan (RPJP, 2005-2025) and middle term plans. In addition,

the province has prepared a spatial plan (2011-2031), of which the purpose was

determined based on the vision and mission of the RPJP (2005-2025). The spatial vision

of the province expects that the agriculture sector becomes one of the main development

drivers in East Java Province.

(2) BBWS Brantas prepared in their Review POLA a map which depicts protection and

utilization zones in the Brantas River basin, as illustrated in Figure S-3. Based on this

map, 23.5% of the total area of 14 regencies and cities in the Brantas River basin is

demarcated as the protection zone, such as protection forest and nature reserved areas,

and the remaining 76.5% as the utilization zone for residential, industrial and agricultural

purposes as well as miscellaneous zones.

S-9



Source: BBWS Brantas

Figure S-3 Protection and Utilization Zones in Brantas River Basin

(3) The POLA in the Brantas River basin was approved in 2010, while the draft RENCANA

was under preparation in 2016. At present, BBWS Brantas has prepared a Review

POLA according to the Ministerial Regulation No.10/PRT/M/2015.

(4) The domestic and industry water supply in the Brantas River basin has been being

conducted in the following three situations.

(a) Water supply from PDAM: PDAMs (like water supply companies) have been supplying

water to the fields of (i) domestic water, (ii) non-domestic water and (iii) industrial water

in urban areas, each of which is defined as follows:

Domestic water: Water consumption in bath, kitchen and restroom in residential

areas,

Non-domestic water: Commercial water consumption in shopping malls and public

areas such as schools and government offices, among others, and

Industrial area: Water consumption of industrial clusters, private factories, etc.

The water sources for the fields above are surface water and groundwater.

(b) Domestic and non-domestic water in non-PDAM areas (areas with no PDAM) : The

domestic and non-domestic water relies mainly on groundwater.

(c) Industrial water in non-PDAM areas: The water sources of industrial water are both

surface water and groundwater.

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4. ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN 2050

4.1 Safety Level

(1) Safety Level against Droughts

In the present climate, the safety level of municipal and industrial water supply is kept at

a 10-year dependable level and the total cropping intensity of irrigation with a 5-year

dependable level is kept at 224%.

The safety level of water use in the future climate was examined using the following

conditions.

Conditions Present Future Climate Present Climate Change Scenario - Medium Irrigation Demand Present Present M&I Demand Present Present Reservoir Volume Present Future


Table S-4 summarizes the change of future safety level for water use in comparison to one in

the present climate.

Table S-4 Safety Level Change on Water Use between Present and Future Climates

< Irrigation Water Supply>

River Course Irrigation Scheme Irrigation

Area (ha)

No. of Years with Deficit Occurrence

Present Climate Future ClimateTributaries DI_Kedung kandang 5,160 0 4

DI_Paingan 551 0 1DI_Blader 286 1 1DI_Siman 23,060 4 6DI_Bening 8,752 4 10DI_Padi Pomahan 4,309 3 4

Main Stream DI_Lodagung 12,217 0 1 DI_Mrican Kanan 17,612 0 2 DI_Mrican Kiri 12,729 0 2 Di_Jatimlerek 1,812 0 2 DI_Mentrus 3,632 0 3 DI_Jatikulon 638 0 3 DI_Brantas Delta 17,942 0 3 Total 108,700

< Municipal and Industrial Water Supply>

No. District/

Municipality No. of Years of Failure in M&I Water Supply

Present Climate Future Climate 1 Batu 0 0 2 Malang 0 1 3 Kediri 0 0 4 Blitar 0 0 5 Sidoarjo 0 0 6 Mojokerto 0 0 7 Jombang 0 0 8 Surabaya 0 0 9 Trenggalek 0 0

10 Tulungagung 0 0

S-11



No. District/

Municipality No. of Years of Failure in M&I Water Supply

Present Climate Future Climate 11 Nganjuk 0 0 12 Gresik 0 0

< Annual Hydro-power Generation>

No. Principal Hydropower

Station Annual Power Generation (GWh)

Present Climate Future Climate 1 Sengguruh 114 92 2 Sutami 475 397 3 Wlingi 189 162 4 Lodoyo 36 33 5 Wonorejo 31 20 6 Selorejo 32 30 Total 877 735 (86%)


The number of deficits in irrigation water supply is increased, especially the safety level

of Siman and Bening irrigation schemes, which is lower than the 5-year dependability.

The safety level of M&I water supply is not less than the 10-year dependability due to

high priority of water supply.

The annual hydro-power generation decreases up to 86% compared with that of the

present climate.

(2) Safety Level against Floods

(a) Widas River Basin

The safety levels in the future climate decrease compared with those of the present climate as

presented in Table S-5. Table S-5 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Widas River)

Probable Floods under Present Condition (m3/s)

Average Return Periods (year) Present Low Medium High

172 2 1.6 1.5 1.4 229 5 2.5 2.5 2.0 278 10 4.7 4.7 3.1 389 30 17.0 12.8 7.7 441 50 26.3 19.0 10.8532 100 100.0 37.9 17.8


(b) Sadar River Basin Table S-6 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Sadar River)

Probable Flood under Present Condition (m3/s)

Average Return Period (year) Present Low Medium High

51 2 1.5 1.5 1.367 5 2.9 2.9 2.378 10 6.7 6.7 4.095 30 19.3 17.5 11.3105 50 30.0 25.4 15.3114 100 100.0 37.1 20.8


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(c) Brangkal River Basin Table S-7 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Ngotok Ring River)



464 2 1.7 1.7 1.4529 5 2.9 2.9 2.0597 10 6.5 5.8 3.7684 30 16.8 13.5 7.0754 50 34.2 26.7 11.9823 100 149.3 45.4 18.8


(d) Tawing River Basin Table S-8 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Tawing River)



165.1 2 1.7 1.3 1.1199.9 5 3.8 2.8 2.2231.4 10 5.8 4.5 3.4307.3 30 15.1 12.0 7.4350.7 50 30.0 19.5 10.1418.3 100 100.0 39.5 17.7


4.2 Risk and Resilience of Water Resources Management

(1) Concept of Risk and Resilience Assessment for Water Resources Management

The Project deals with the assessment of risk and resilience for water resources management

under future climate change conditions on the basis of the concept presented in Figure S-4.

Legend:Before exercise of resilienceAfter exercise of resilienceDecrease of Risk by Exercising ResilienceFor Structural and Non-structural Measures

N, M Years (M < N)

Risk = ∑ D x ∆(1/P) : Expected Value (Eq. 1)

Hazard level

D :

Dam

age

Pot

enti

al Des

ign

Saf

ety

Lev

el

Fut

ure

Saf

ety

Lev

el w

/o A

dd

itio

nal M

easu

res

(P : Return Period : year)NM

Decline insafety level

Notes:*1 under present conditions*2 under future conditions

Figure S-4 Concept of Risk and Resilience for Water Resources Management (Hazard: Flood and Drought)

S-13



The risk is estimated with Eq. 1, and the term of “Resilience” is defined below according to

the UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2009).

Resilience = The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions. Comment: Resilience means the ability to “resile from” or “spring back from” a shock. The resilience of a community in respect to potential hazard events is determined by the degree to which the community has the necessary resources and is capable of organizing itself both prior to and during times of need. Source: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction (2009)

The orange part in Figure S-4 means the remaining risk under future climate change conditions

after exercise of resilience and is to be the objective risk for consideration of additional

structural and non-structural measures in the future.

(2) Risk for Water Resources Management

(a) Risk related to Droughts

The major risk related to droughts in the future climate is assessed as reduction of cropping

intensity and annual hydro-power generation. Table S-9 compiles the risk (damage) in drought.

Table S-9 Damage in Drought

Case Cropped Area (ha) Cropping

Intensity(%)

M&I (m3/s)

Power Generation

(GWh) Mainstream Tributaries Total

Present 166,455 77,350 243,805 224 29.5 877 Future Medium 131,315 69,796 201,111 150 50.2 730

Low 166,465 96,348 262,813 196 50.4 767 High 93,182 63,265 156,447 116 46.7 657

Note: Safety level: Irrigation 5-year probability, Municipal & Industrial water 10-year probability Source: JICA Project Team 2

(b) Risk related to Floods

The major risk related to floods in the future climate is flood overtopping of structures. The

risk of each river is summarized hereunder.

1) Porong River

Table S-10 compiles the overtop locations in present and future climates.

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Table S-10 Location of Overtop Sections

Location Main Channel Distance

from River Mouth (km)

Present Future High Medium Low

KB51~New Lengkong Dam

52~48

< 100 cm in several section

Overtop at New Lengkong Dam < 100 cm in several sections

<100 cm in several sections

<100 cm in several sections

KP1~KP15 48 ~ 45 <100 cm Overtop < 100 cm < 100 cmKP20~KP30 43 ~ 42 Overtop Overtop Overtop Overtop KP60~KP85

36 ~ 30 Overtop in Several sections

Overtop in almost sections




It is examined that the overtop events from the dike near New Lengkong Barrage and at KP1-

KP15, KP20-KP30 and KP60-KP85 are to take place.

2) Other Tributaries

The annualized incremental damage in the future climate is summarized in Table S-11.

Table S-11 Annualized Damage due to Flood Risk

Scenario River Basin Irrigation Area

(ha) Affected House

(nos.) Affected People

(nos.)

Medium

Widas 100.3 31.1 634.9 Sadar 96.9 75.5 822.8 Ngotok 16.6 222.3 3,346.2 Tawing 186.6 97.1 1,280.8

Low

Widas 81.4 19.0 387.2 Sadar 94.0 74.2 808.6 Ngotok 15.2 200.4 3,156.0 Tawing 162.0 93.3 1,224.8

High

Widas 177.4 57.9 1,001.9 Sadar 104.0 79.1 861.5 Ngotok 26.6 406.7 5,439.6 Tawing 201.9 135.5 1,337.7


(c) Resilience against Risks

Table S-12 summarizes qualitative risk items and resilience in the Brantas River basin.

S-15



Table S-12 Summary of Risk and Resilience (except Qualitative Risk)

Hazard Sub-aspect Risk Resilience

Structure Non-structure Drought 1.2 Water

Preservation Increasing frequency of

drought situation To control water

extraction by the monitoring of related agency*1

2.2 Water Resources Provision

Reducing supply water volume from the reservoir

To install rainfall utilization system (rainfall storage tank, underground rainfall storage facility, etc.)

To change full supply level in the dry season*2

To carry out maintenance dredging*1

To carry out flushing and sluicing*1

2.3 Water Resources Use

Increasing frequency of drought

To use storage between MOL and LWL at Sutami Dam*2 To allow over-year

storage to each dam*2 To optimize reservoir

operation of dams in Brantas River basin*2 To change water source

from surface water to groundwater*2

Flood 3.1 Disaster Prevention

Number of flood inundation is increased and flood inundation area is also expanded. Outflow from each

dam is increased during the flood event

To carry out monitoring and repairing of the dike every year based on the regular inspection*1

To keep same flood control space at each dam (lowering FSL)*2

3.2 Disaster Relief

Increasing number of casualties

To carry out the repair works of dike and evacuation center based on the result of regular inspection*1

To carry out capacity development for the staffs of evacuation guidance *1 To prepare hazard map

and evacuation route map*1 To grasp persons who

need to be supported in evacuation*1 To carry out capacity

development to the flood fighting teams*1 To improve accuracy of

FFWS*1 3.3 Disaster Recovery

Flood damage is increased.

To carry out the repair works (temporary) of dike at breaching location*1

Note: *1: Qualitative, *2: Quantitative, Source: JICA Project Team 2

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5. FORMULATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES UP TO 2050

5.1 Planning Methodology of Water Resources Management Plans Reflecting Climate

Change Impacts

In formulating water resources management plans reflecting climate change impacts, in other

words “Climate Change Adaptation Measures”, it is needed to consider uncertainty inherent

in the projected climate change impacts. Therefore, JICA Project Team 2 had several

discussions with the Indonesian side, providing materials and discussion points concerning

“Multiple Scenario Approach (MSA)” as a planning methodology. Through the discussions,

the following were confirmed mutually.

Regarding the “Point of Cost Optimum (PCO)” in MSA for an object area, there are 2

cases of relationship with the criteria for “Flood Protection Level (FPL)”, which are:

(a) Case 1: PCO < FPL and (b) Case 2: PCO > FPL.

(1) In the case of (a), the safety level corresponding to the FPL shall be adopted for the climate change adaptation measures of the object area. And,

(2) In the case of (b), the safety level corresponding to the PCO shall be adopted for the

climate change adaptation measures of the object area.

5.2 Climate Change Adaptation Measures against Rain Storms and Floods

(1) Water Resources Management

The structural measures are selected by using MSA as summarized in Table S-13.

Table S-13 Structural Measures for Floods Future Climate

Scenario River Discharge

(m3/s) Type Height

(m) Length (km)

Medium Widas 710 (Upper) Dike(New)+FM 1.9*1 6.5*1

1.2*2 11.4*2

1.5*3 34.3*3

Ngotok 1,457 Dike(New) 1.3 43.1Sadar 130 Dike(New) 0.5 6.8Tawing 397 Dike(New) 2.1 26.6Porong 1,710 Dike(Heightening) 0.8 40.1

Low Widas 680 Dike(New)+FM 1.9*1 6.5*1

1.2*2 11.4*2

1.5*3 34.3*3

Ngotok 947 Dike(New) 0.8 24.1Sadar 130 Dike(New) 0.5 6.8Tawing 352 Dike(New) 1.8 25.8Porong 1,620 Dike(Heightening) 0.5 28.4

High Widas 680 Dike(New)+FM 1.9*1 6.5*1

1.2*2 11.4*2

1.5*3 34.3*3

Ngotok 2,079 Dike(New) 2.1 62.9Sadar 210 Dike(New) 0.7 12.5Tawing 335 Dike(New) 1.8 20.2Porong 2,030 Dike(Heightening) 1.0 44.3

Note: FM means Flood Management, *1: Upper Widas, *2: Kedung and Kuncir, *3: Lower Widas


S-17



In addition, any considerable non-structural measures against rainstorms and floods are useful

and the following are to be considered:

Upgrading of Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS),

Community-based Early Warning System (EWS),

Preparation of Hazard Map for Several Probable Floods,

Designation of Evacuation Center from Existing Public Facilities and Construction

of Evacuation Center

Strengthening of Flood Prevention Organization,

Preparation of Business Continuity Plan (BCP) and Business Continuity

Management (BCM) by Private Companies and Local Governments,

Preparation of Flood Action Plan, and

Land Use Control to Frequent Flood Inundation Area.

(2) Sabo Management

(a) Use of coagulant against dredged fine–grained sediment

Currently, the sediment dredged in the reservoirs situated in the Upper Brantas and the Konto

River has been being disposed into spoil banks around the reservoirs. However, the places

for spoil banks are usually filled up soon and it is rather difficult to find alternative places near

the reservoirs. In such a state, the use of coagulant against fine-grained sediment dredged from

a dam reservoir is recommended as an effective measure.

(b) Dredging/excavation of Sabo facilities

Regular dredging/excavation of existing Sabo facilities to increase their trap capacities is

effective to trap unstable sediment. In the Brantas River basin, the dredging/excavation of Sabo

facilities upstream from the Sengguruh Dam is highly prioritized due to the existence of large

amount of unstable sediment due to the Mt. Semeru eruption.

(c) Watershed conservation under Sabo management

The factors of sediment discharge are presumed to be mainly surface soil erosion,

riverbank/riverbed erosion, slope failure and watershed development such as deforestation and

cultivation land expansion. Since the deforestation and cultivation land expansion have a

possibility of artificial factor, it is important that the operation of forest or cultivated land by

ways of (i) development restriction and (ii) development considering prevention of surface soil

erosion is to be carefully realized, by incorporating:

Multiple-layered forest and agro-forestry,

Terracing in cultivation land to prevent surface soil outflow, and

Ground cover with grass straw or something to prevent from erosion due to

raindrops.

5.3 Climate Change Adaptation Measures against Droughts

(1) Surface Water Resources Management

(a) Structural measures

All structural measures enumerated below shall be carried out for priority actions:

S-18



Replacement of PDAM’s pipeline,

Construction of recycle plant at each industrial company,

Rehabilitation of tertiary irrigation canals in each irrigation scheme, and

Construction of 5 dams (Kedungwarak Dam, Kencir Dam, Babadan Dam, Kont II

Dam, and Genteng I Dam).

(b) Non-structural measures

The non-structural measures below shall be carried out for priority actions:

Changing water source from surface water to groundwater

Introducing system of rice intensification (SRI)

Public relations of reservoir water level at each dam

Domestic water supply support system among adjacent river basins

Preparation of drought action plan (Timeline for droughts)

(2) Groundwater Resources Management

It is desirable for the Brantas River basin (i) to promote adaptation measures by use of

structural measures in conjunctions with grasping actual conditions of groundwater use and

(ii) to introduce appropriate regulations and management. Since there are no universal

adaptation measures to minimize the impact of climate change on groundwater, the goal is to

mitigate its impact by using realistic measures. Therefore, it is necessary to deal with direct

and indirect impacts due to climate change through incorporating adaptation measures into the

water resources management plans and enhancing existing relevant management systems and

measures.

6 PROPOSED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION MEASURES TO BE

INCORPORATED INTO POLA AND RENCANA

The adaptation measures which are proposed to be incorporated into POLA and RENCANA

in the next review/evaluation stage reflecting climate change impacts are explained hereunder.

These are adaptation measures against climate change impacts as of the target year 2050.

6.1 Adaptation Measures against Rainstorms and Floods


The adaptation measures are proposed as compiled in Tables S-14 and S-15.

Table S-14 Structural Measures against Rainstorms and Floods (Medium Scenario) Location Measures Protection Level

Widas River Dike construction (Height = 1.9 m at upper Widas R., 1.2 m at Kedung R. and 1.5 m at lower Widas R., Length = 52.3k m)

17 year

Ngotok River Dike construction (Height = 1.3 m, Length = 43.1 km) 50 year Sadar River Dike construction (Height = 0.5 m, Length = 6.8 km) 16 year Tawing River Dike construction (Height = 2.1 m, Length = 26.6 km) 30year Porong River Dike construction (Height = 0.8 m, Length = 40.1 km) 50 year


S-19



Table S-15 Non-structural Measures against Rainstorms and Floods

Measure DetailsUpgrading FFWS Developing flood forecasting model

Flood forecasting information service to concerned agencies and communities

Storing hourly rainfall and water level data to server Community based EWS Increasing number of target communities

Developing information system by using smart phone Evacuation Preparation of hazard maps for several probable floods

Designation of evacuation centers considering inundation area

Construction of evacuation centers considering inundation area

Land Use Control Local governments prepared spatial plan considering inundation area

Local governments shall consider the restricted area which are frequently inundated areas.

Flood Action Plan It is organized for action of disaster prevention (flood) and implementing agencies in time series focusing on “when”, “who”, and “what to do”.

Capacity Development of Flood Fighting Team

It is necessary to keep the high level of knowledge and skills to flood fighting. Therefore, capacity development of the flood fighting teams and concerned agencies is required.

Business Continuity Plan A business continuity plan (BCP) is a plan to help ensure that business processes can continue during/in time of emergency or disaster. Private companies and local governments shall prepare BCP.


(2) Sabo Management

As the structural measures, the existing “Basin-wide Sediment Management Plan” is to be

implemented ahead of the original schedule. Therefore non-structural measures compiled in

Table S-16 are recommended.

Table S-16 Non-structural Measures against Sedimentation for Sabo Management

Measures DetailsUse of coagulant against fine–grained sediment

Consolidation of dredged sediment Able to use for civil engineering materials or

agricultural materialsDredging Regular dredging of existing Sabo facilities to increase

their trap capacity Highest Priority: Dredging of Sabo facilities in the

upstream areas of Sengguruh DamComprehensive Sediment Management Plan

Basin-wide Sabo Plan in addition to the volcanic Sabo plan against the Brantas River basin


(3) Watershed conservation

Regarding the watershed conservation against rainstorms and floods, forest management is

generally described in POLA from the point of forest land classification and critical land.

The climate change may make an impact more serious and preventive measures to keep and

improve current forest cover are the key for adaptation. Yet the impact on the forest ecosystem

by the climate change is unknown and it is important to start the preventive measures as well

as monitoring of the forest ecosystem especially in the priority areas which are contributing to

S-20



water retaining capacity or which are to be affected by the rain pattern change and temperature

rise.

Thus, it is proposed to include the following in POLA and RENCANA:

“Policy level: to keep and improve the forest cover in the forest land as well as the whole

Brantas Wastershed.”

6.2 Adaptation Measures against Droughts


Tables 17 and 18 compile adaptation measures for the future climate conditions.

Table S-17 Structural Measures against Droughts (Medium Scenario)

Measures Location Details

Kedungwarak Dam Widas River basin Type: Rockfill, Hight:25.3m, Crest length:164.3mKuncir Dam Widas River basin Type: Rockfill, Hight:100m, Crest length:450.5mBabadan Dam Bendokrosok Type: Rockfill, Hight:80m, Crest length:179m Kont II Dam Konto River Type: Rockfill, Hight:120m, Crest length:1,004mGenteng I Dam Kesti River Type: Rockfill, Hight:84m, Crest length:441m


Table S-18 Non-structural Measures against Droughts

Measure Details Changing water sources from surface water to groundwater

PDAM Water of Blitar: 0.48m3/s Industrial Water: Upper reach: 0.66m3/s

Middle reach: 0.09m3/s Additional wells are required. (See groundwater

management)Introducing SRI Even though the effectiveness of SRI method on

irrigation water saving has yet commonly quantified on irrigation scheme basis, experimental works done by the Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia revealed that SRI method applied to the dry season rice cultivation can be reduced by 3.35% of irrigation water consumption and increased by 9.15% of irrigation water productivity (g grain/ kg water) compared with the conventional irrigation regimes.

Preparation of drought action plan

It is organized for action plan of local governments, private companies, hospitals, and residents before and during drought situation.

Public relations of reservoir water level of each dam

PJT-I shows the time series of actual and planned water levels in the website.

When the actual water level is lower than the planned water level, the local governments shall inform the residential people through public relation.

Domestic water supply support system

When the domestic water supply is in severe situation in Brantas River basin compared with the adjacent river basins, domestic water supply from adjacent basins by using tank lories, increasing supply water volume through pipeline, and so on.

It is necessary to make agreement among representative agencies of the adjacent river basins.


(2) Groundwater Resources Management

In due consideration of climate change, the operational policies on groundwater resource

management are presented in the Review POLA/RENCANA as referred to in Table S-19. The

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directions of the operational policies for managing groundwater resources in the Brantas River

basin is related to two aspects, namely: Water Resource Conservation and Water Resources

Utilization.

Table S-19 Review POLA and RENCANA

Aspects Strategy in Current Review POLA/

RENCANA Operational Policy Proposed in Current

Review POLA/RENCANA

Water Resources Conservation

Construction of infiltration well in every house as set in the Regional Regulation, which can be associated as the requirement for obtaining a Building Construction Permit (IMB), power supply, and other facilities (entire area of the Brantas River basin)

Selective issuance of IMB (Building Construction Permit) and provision of other public service facilities such as electricity, telephone etc.

Water Resources Utilization

Groundwater use permit and groundwater allocation as well as control of distribution of groundwater exploited by optimizing the water’s benefits (the entire Brantas River basin)

Compiling laws and regulations on groundwater at operational level.

Providing counseling or imposing sanctions to those who extract ground water without permission


Preservation of groundwater should consider maintaining a balance between recharging and

groundwater extraction. Some methods of groundwater management are (1) artificial

groundwater recharging and (2) control of groundwater extraction. Construction of infiltration

(injection) wells in each house as set in the Regional Regulation is a measure to enhance the

groundwater storage capacity. Groundwater use permit and groundwater allocation as well as

control of groundwater distribution are measures to prevent uncontrolled groundwater

extraction.

The measures presented in the Review POLA/RENCANA are effective against future climate

change also, but some additional measures targeting droughts can be proposed as stated in

Table S-20, which compares the measures in the Review POLA/RENCANA and the adaptation

measures against droughts under the climate change with a target year of 2050. The

adaptation measures aim mainly to establish basic data (i) to enable wider response to climate

change and (ii) to make the measures in the Review POLA/RENCANA more specific.

Table S-20 Measures in Review POLA/RENCANA and Proposed Adaptation Measures

Measures in Review POLA/ RENCANA

Proposed Adaptation Measures against Droughts

Artificial groundwater recharging using injection well

Artificial groundwater recharging using injection well

Investigation of groundwater development for drilling new well including groundwater potential study

Establishment of monitoring system for groundwater level and spring water

Control of groundwater extraction under the laws and regulations

Survey on actual use of groundwater to identify the area for regulation

Control of groundwater extraction under the lows and regulations


(3) Watershed conservation

Regarding the watershed conservation against droughts, forest management is generally

described in POLA from the point of forest land classification and critical land.

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The climate change may make an impact more serious and preventive measures to keep and

improve current forest cover are the key for adaptation. Yet the impact on the forest ecosystem

by the climate change is unknown and it is important to start the preventive measures as well

as monitoring of the forest ecosystem especially in the priority areas which are contributing to

water retaining capacity or which are to be affected by the rain pattern change and temperature

rise.

Thus, it is proposed to include the following in POLA and RENCANA.

“Policy level: to keep and improve the forest cover in the forest land as well as the whole

Brantas Watershed”.

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<< STUDY FOR MUSI RIVER BASIN >>

7. CURRENT CONDITIONS OF MUSI RIVER BASIN

7.1 Physical Setting

(1) The topography of the Musi River basin can be classified mainly into five zones which

are the mountainous zone, piedmont zone, central plains, inland wetlands and coastal

plains. The mountainous zone is distributed only to the west-southwest-south region of

the basin. The remaining 60% of the basin excluding the mountainous zone and its

adjacent piedmont zone is occupied by central plains, inland wetlands and coastal plains.

(2) The Musi River is the largest river in Sumatra, flowing down from west to east in South

Sumatra Province. It has the fourth largest catchment area of 59,942km2 with a length of

approximately 640km in Indonesia. The Musi River and its major tributaries originate

in the Barisan Range as shown in Figure S-5. The Musi River can be traced up to the

foot of Mt. Dempo with an altitude of 3,159m and the average bed slope widely varies

from 1/100 - 1/200 in its upper reaches to 1/10,000 in its lower ones near Palembang, and

become gentler (1/20,000) toward the coastal areas. The Musi River basin is

sandwiched by the Banyuasin and the Sugihan River basins in the lowest area from the

east and the west sides, respectively.


Figure S-5 Musi, Banyuasin and Sugihan River Basins

(3) The climate of the Musi River basin is characterized by abundant rainfall which is

moderately distributed through the year with wet and dry seasons much less clearly

defined than those in Java and eastern Indonesia. Figure S-6 presents the monthly rainfall

S-24



and temperature observed at the Kenten Station in Palembang. The total annual rainfall

is about 2,800mm with more rainfall between October and April. The monthly average

temperature has little variation and is as high as about 27°C through the year. The annual

potential evapotranspiration ranges from 1,200 to 1,500mm.


Figure S-6 Monthly Rainfall (1985～2013）and Monthly Temperature (2012) at Kenten Station, Palembang.

(4) The average discharge in the lower stretches of the Musi River after the confluence of the

Komering River is about 2,500 m3/s with fluctuations in the dry and wet seasons between

1,400 m3/s and 4,200 m3/s. Normally, the Musi River and its tributaries have the highest

peak discharge during the period of February and March, and the lowest one between

July and September. The maximum tidal fluctuation of about 3.5m has been observed,

and the highest spring tide appears generally in December and January.

(5) Groundwater basins in the Musi River basin defined by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral

Resources (ESDM) are presented in Figure S-7, and the groundwater potential of each basin

is compiled in Table S-21. The average groundwater development potential of 533mm/y is

about 19% of 2,800mm of the average rainfall of Palembang, and is equivalent to about 40%

of 1,340mm of the annual effective rainfall that is estimated by assuming 4mm of daily

average evapotranspiration.

S-25




Figure S-7 Groundwater Potential for Each Groundwater Basin

Table S-21 Total Groundwater Potential for Each Groundwater Basin

No. Basin Name Area (km2)

Q1+Q2*1 Ranking

(Q1+Q2)/Area(mm/y) (M m3/y) (%)

1 Bangko Sarolangun 6,072 4,221 5.8 5 695 2 Butruraja 2,404 1,151 1.6 10 479 3 Bengkulu 4,888 3,836 5.3 6 785 4 Jambi Dumai 69,776 20,401 28.0 1 292 5 Kurangagung 22,860 12,977 17.8 2 568 6 Lubuk Linggau Muaraenim 15,400 6,062 8.3 3 394 7 Metro Motbumi 21,640 12,331 16.9 8 570 8 Mauradua Curup 8,521 4,389 6.0 4 515 9 Palembang Kayuagung 8,652 3,759 5.2 7 434

10 Ranau 1,501 934 1.3 12 622 11 Sugihwaras 1,794 1,549 2.1 9 863 12 Gedong Meneng 1,412 1,185 1.6 11 839

Total 1(1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10,11) 88,844 47,373 65.1 - 533 Total 2(1-12) 164,920 72,795 100.0 - 441

*1: Q1 is shallow aquifer and Q2 is deep aquifer Source：JICA Project Team 2

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7.2 Socio-Economy

(1) The Musi River basin extends over the four provinces, i.e., South Sumatra, Bengkulu,

Jambi and Lampung Provinces. South Sumatra Province occupies 96% of the total basin

area of some 60,000km2, while Bengkulu, Jambi and Lampung Provinces occupy 3.6%,

0.4% and a negligibly little part, respectively. The Banyuasin River basin stretches over

South Sumatra and Jambi Provinces, and the entire Sugihan River basin is situated within

South Sumatra Province.

(2) The total population in the Musi River basin in 2010 was approximately 7.95 million, and

the annual growth rate of population from 2000 to 2010 is 1.06%.

(3) The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of South Sumatra Province was IDR 60.4

billion in 2009, which corresponds to IDR 8 million of per capita GRDP. The economic

structure of South Sumatra Province is dominated by three major sectors, namely mining,

agriculture, and manufacture that accounted for 23%, 20% and 17% of the total GRDP,

respectively.

South Sumatra Province is rich in fossil fuel resources. It is reported that there are

approximately 24,179.98 BSCF (Billions of Standard Cubic Feet) gas reserves in South

Sumatra Province or ± 13.01 % of the total natural gas reserves in Indonesia as of 2009.

The province has coal reserves of approximately ± 38.44 % of the total coal reserves of

the state or 22,240.47 million tons, while oil reserves in South Sumatra Province of ±

8.78 % of the total national petroleum reserve or 757.60 MSTB (Million Stock Tank

Barrels).

Besides, South Sumatra Province is regarded as a food barn. The agriculture sector is

divided into subsectors of food crops and horticulture, plantation, livestock and fisheries.

Rice is the most important crop in the province. Other food crops are also cultivated

such as maize, cassava, sweet potato, peanuts, and soybeans. Rubber, oil palm and coffee

are the major cash crops of plantation subsector.

(4) JICA Project Teams 1 and 2 jointly elaborated the present land use map, based on that

prepared in 2010 by BAPPEDA of South Sumatra Province, by adding 4 categories of

paddy areas which are fresh water swamp, irrigated, rainfed and tidal swamp rice fields,

as shown in Figure S-8.

(5) In South Sumatra Province, the average net monthly income of informal employees was

IDR 1,501,000 in the 2017 statistics, whereas the minimum monthly wage was IDR

2,388,000. The percentage of poor people was 13.1% as of September 2017, and it is

higher than the national average (10.12%). The rate below the poverty line was 12.36%

in the urban areas, whereas 13.54% in the rural areas. The most significant source of

drinking water was protected well (34.77%) in 2017, followed by bottled water (19.75%)

and piped water (16.65%). The numbers of totally or severely damaged households by

disaster was 196 in 2017 and 114 in 2016 which were lower than the other disaster-prone

provinces.

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Source: JICA Project Teams 1 and 2

Figure S-8 Present Land Use Map in Musi River Basin

7.3 Current State of Water Sector

(1) The Musi-Sugihan-Banyuasin-Lemau (MSBL) River basin, which is composed of three

river basins and one watershed, namely: the Musi, Sugihan, Banyuasin River basins, and

the Lemau watershed, was established by the Presidential Decree No. 12/2012 on

Determination of River Basin. The cross-province river basin is being managed by

BBWS Sumatra VIII under the authority of the central government. BBWS Sumatra

VIII has a task to carry out the management of water resources, including planning,

construction, operation and maintenance, from the aspects of water resource conservation,

water resource development, water resource utilization, control of water destructive

power, etc. in the river basin.

(2) In April 2013, the Water Resources Management Coordination Team (TKPSDA) was

established for the MSBL River basin with a total of 88 members (44 from governmental

institutions including BAPPEDA, Dinas PU, Dinas Pertanian, etc., and the other 44 from

non-governmental institutions) to accommodate the aspirations of all stakeholders on the

management of water resources. TKPSDA is based in Palembang, and responsible to the

Minister of Public Works and Housing with six duties and three functions as compiled in

Table S-22.

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Table S-22 Six Duties and Three Functions of TKPSDA

Duty/Function Contents

Six Duties

1. Discussion on pattern, Pola (strategic plan) and Rencana (implementation plan) of water resources management

2. Discussion on program design and draft action plans for natural resources management in the river basin

3. Discussion on proposed plans of allocation of water from any water source 4. Discussion on hydrological, hydro-meteorological and hydrogeological information

system for integrated information management 5. Discussion on draft human resources utilization, financial, and institutional tools to

optimize the performance of natural resource management in the river basin 6. Giving consideration to the Minister on the implementation of natural resources

management in the river basin

Three Functions

1. Consultation with relevant parties to integration of water resources management 2. Integration and alignment of interests among sectors and regions and stakeholders

in water resources management 3. Monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of plans and programs of water

resources management activities

Source: BBWS-S8

(3) Meteorological conditions (temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed, humidity,

evaporation, etc.) are observed by the Meteorological and Hydrological Agency (BMKG)

under the Ministry of Transportation. BMKG has two meteorological stations (SMB II

and Kenten II Stations) and manages some 120 rainfall stations in South Sumatra

Province.

Two agencies, namely, BBWS Sumatra VIII and Dinas PU (PSDA Musi and PSDA

Sugihan) of South Sumatra Province have been observing hydrological conditions

(rainfall, water level and discharge) in the Musi River basin. PUSAIR collects and

arranges data from the observation agencies to publish a yearly data book.

In addition, Pelindo II (Indonesia Port Corporation II) has five tide stations along the

lowest stretches of the Musi River.

(4) Existing River Facilities

As for the major existing river facilities in the Musi River basin, the basic dimensions of

dams, headworks and hydropower plants are summarized in Table S-23 and Figure S-9.

S-29



Table S-23 Major Headworks, Dam and Hydropower Plant in Musi River Basin

River Facilities Technical Features Construction Year

(1) Headworks Perjaya Headworks End sill height=2-3m, L=215.5m, gated weir, with 7 nos.

spillway gates, 3nos. sluiceway gates, 59,148ha1996

Lakitang Headworks H=7.66m, L=80m, fixed weir with 4 nos. sluiceway gates, 9,667ha

1997

Lintang Kiri Headworks H=4.0m, L=40.0m, fixed weir with 3 nos. sluiceway gates, 3,037ha

2011

Lintang Kanan Headworks (Siring Agung)

H=1.0m, L=31.0m, fixed weir with sluiceway gates,1,293ha

1997

(Karang Tanding) H=1.5m, L=24.0m, fixed weir with sluiceway gates1,761ha

Lematang Headworks H=2.0m, L=30.0m, fixed weir with 2 nos. sluiceway gates, 3,000ha

On-going construction

(2) Dam/Reservoir Ranau Lake Reservoir area: 125 km2, Storage volume: 190 MCM for

irrigation water supply.-

Ranau Regulating Facility H=7.0m, L=144.0m, gated weir with 6 nos. regulating gates and emergency spillway

1996

(3) Hydro Power Plant Musi PLTA Installed capacity: 21.0MW, power generation

1,834GWh/year2006

Ranau Niagla PLTMH Installed capacity: 2 x 850 kW, 2015Source: JICA Project Team 2

Source: Prepared by JICA Project Team 2 referring to RENCANA(2016) and others

Figure S-9 Location Map of Major Headworks, Dam and Hydropower Plant in Musi River Basin

S-30



(5) There are five (5) connecting canals (RAJASIAR Canals) and regulators between the

Komering and the Ogan Rivers (see Figure S-10). The canals were constructed in the

Dutch era aiming at a flood diversion from the Komering to the Ogan Rivers so as to

mitigate flood damage along the lower Komering River. However, riverbed degradation

and bank erosion in the canals became worse due to straight and steep alignments of the

canals. Thereby drought in the lower Komering River became a problem because water

had been diverted from the Komering to the Ogan Rivers even in a dry season. To cope

with this situation, regulators were constructed at the inlet of each canal. The main

functions of the regulators are as follows:

• In rainy season: Flood diversion from Komering to Ogan Rivers, and

• In dry season: Discharge control to secure water supply into the lower Komering.


Figure S-10 Schematic Image of RAJASIAR Canals

(6) Flood is one of the most important natural disasters in the Musi River basin. In the low-

lying areas near the confluences between the Musi River and its tributaries such as the

Kelingi, the Lakitan and the Rawas Rivers located in the middle stretches of the Musi

River, extensive inundations occur every year. The floods have often damaged nearby

roads. In Palembang City, the damage due to flood inundation was not so serious

previously. However, due to rapid urbanization of the city keeping pace with the recent

economic development, the urban areas of Palembang City have been expanded even to

the lower flood prone areas.

A flood map was prepared for the Musi, Banyuasin and Sugihan River basins in 2014, as

presented in Figure S-11.

S-31



Source: Flood-Prone Area Map Preparation Study in Musi Sugihan Banyuasin Lemau RB, 2014, BBWS Sumatra VIII

Figure S-11 Flood Map in MSBL River Basin

(7) Under the Paris Agreement, Indonesia has been committed to reducing its greenhouse gas

emissions unconditionally by 29% and conditionally by 41% by 2030. A research result1

shows that among the total CO2 emissions in Indonesia (464.18 MT2 ), those from

peatland fires occupy 90% or more. Thus, fire management in peatland is one of the

crucial tasks shouldered by the central government. In January 2016, the Peatland

Reconstruction Agency (BRGT) was established and placed directly under the

President’s Office. In addition, the office in South Sumatra Province (TRGD) was

founded and given the authority to plan and manage all peatland reconstruction-related

activities in the province.

(8) The study on Sumatra State Spatial Plan began in 2011, and the spatial plan was approved

by PUPR in 2016 and issued in the Regulation No. 11, 2016 of South Sumatra Province

as the South Sumatra Province Spatial Plan for 2016-2036. The purpose of the spatial

plan was set down as stated below:

“Creating a Productive, Efficient, and Qualified Provincial Territorial Space by

Utilizing the Potential of Sustainable Food Resources and Energy Towards an

Excellent and Leading Province"

1 Levine et al., 1999, Geophys. Res. Lett.; Page et al., 2002, Nature 2 World Bank Data Indicators (2014)

S-32



(9) The POLA and RENCANA for water resources management for the MBSL River basin

were promulgated in 2014 as the decree of the Minister of the Ministry of Public Works

No. 196/KPTS/M/2014 and in 2017 as the decree of the Minister of the Ministry of Public

Works and Housing No. 317/KPTS/M/2017, respectively. The MBSL River Basin that

covers 86,100 km2 including the Lemau River basin and coastal areas near the Banyuasin

and Sugihan River basins are slightly larger than the target area (76,000 km2) of the

Project which focuses on the Musi, Banyuasin and Sugihan River basins, as illustrated in

Figure S-12:

Figure S-12 Musi-Banyuasin-Sugihan-Lemau (MBSL) River Basin

(10) In RENCANA (2017), the proposed plan for construction of eight (8) dams (See Figure

S-9) is presented to meet the needs of both domestic and irrigation water demands. The

investment schedule of the dams within the Musi River basin is divided into four periods

(5 years) as shown in Table S-24.

Table S-24 Proposed Plan of Construction of Dam in POLA/RENCAN in Musi River Basin

2016-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031 2032-2036 1. Komering 2 (2021) 2. Komering 1 (2021)

3. Muara Lingtang (2026) 4. Saka (2026) 5. Tanjung Pura (2026)

6. Muara Dua (2031)

7. Padan Bindu (2036)

Source: Water Resources Management Plan Musi-Sugihan-Banyuasin, Lemau Rivr Basins (Year 2017)

The proposed plan for the new development of 9 surface water irrigation schemes and 4

swamp drainage schemes for the next 20-year period is presented in RENCANA (2017)

with implementation schedule.

S-33



8. ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN 2050

8.1 Droughts

In order to assess the impact of climate change on water use, the frequency of drought years

was estimated as presented in Figure S-13 through water balance analysis. The frequency

means the number of drought years when water deficit of irrigation and/or DMI water occurs

in the water balance analysis period of 15 years and was estimated for each sub-basin. From

the figure below, the following considerations are made:

In all of high, miedium and low scenarios, drought occurs only in the upper sub-basins

and there is no drought caused in the middle and lower sub-basins. These water-short sub-

basins include those in the Komering, Lematang, Kelingi and Lakitan River basins where

existing and proposed large-scaled irrigation intake facilities are concentrated.

A few dam reservoirs have been planned/proposed for the water-short sub-basins in the

Komering and Lematang River basins. However, those in the Kelingi and the Lakitan

River basins have no planned/proposed dam site.

DMI water which is prioritized more than the irrigation water in terms of water security,

would be secured almost 100% in all the future climate scenarios, and almost all the water

deficit volume would be for irrigation water.

Source: JICA Project Team 2 Figure S-13 Frequency of Drought Years and Volume of Water Deficit

S-34



8.2 Increase of Heavy Rainfalls

In order to grasp the increase of heavy rainfall events in the future climate, a frequency analysis

was carried out using bias-corrected daily rainfall data of 500m x 500m mesh areas provided

by JICA Project Team 1. Table S-25 compiles the total number of heavy daily rainfalls in the

Musi River basin under the present and future climates for different thresholds of rainfall

intensity and also their increase rates. Figure S-14 presents the number of heavy rainfall days

over 75mm/day. As seen in the table and figure, the frequency of heavy rainfall events

generally increases in the future, and the increase rates in the high scenario case range from

1.5 to 7.0. Table S-25 Numbers of Heavy Rainfall Days per Year in Present and Future Climates


Source: JICA Project Team 2 Figure S-14 Frequency of Daily Rainfall over 75mm/day

Present Future Increase rate Present Future Increase rate Present Future Increase rate50 37.5 57.7 1.5 39.3 38.8 1.0 14.7 13.7 0.975 18.8 31.1 1.7 7.1 8.6 1.2 8.5 8.8 1.0100 10.8 17.5 1.6 3.8 4.1 1.1 1.3 2.6 2.0125 3.7 9.0 2.4 2.5 2.7 1.1 0.0 0.9 -150 0.8 3.5 4.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.2 -175 0.1 0.7 7.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.1 -200 0.0 0.0 - 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 -

High (giss_aom) Medium (cccma_cgcm3_1) Low (gfdl_cm2_1)Threshold(>=mm/day)

S-35



8.3 Floods

There are extensive swamp areas situated in the middle-reach areas of the Musi River basin

and there are extensive agricultural areas which used to be tidal swamp areas in the lower area:

both areas have been vulnerable to habitual inundations. Figure S-15 and Table S-26 present

the results of a flood inundation analysis with an assumption of 25 cm sea level rise in 2050.

As referred to in Figure S-15 and Table S-26, the following are considered:

The flood inundation area definitely increases as the return period increases, and expands

especially in the lower coastal areas due to the sea level rise.

Under the present conditions, the inundation area of 100-yr return period is estimated at

about 3,200 km2 and is to increase or decrease to 4,000 to 2,900 km2 in 2050, depending

on the future climate scenarios. And

In 2050, some 260,000 to 300,000 houses are to be located in flooding areas.

However, it could be noted that not all houses in the flooding areas would be affected by the

flooding, since most of the population in the flood plains are living in pillar houses (see Photo

S-1) and are very familiar with how to live with floods. In addition, most of the major

settlement areas located higher in elevation have narrowly escaped from flooding.

Table S-26 Results of Flood Inundation Analysis

Scenario Return Period

Inundation Area (km2)

Inundation Vol. (MCM)

No. of Affected Houses

Affected Paddy Field

(ha)

Historical (Without Climate Change)

2 years 646 368 0 46,356

5 years 1,249 820 174,259 47,194

10 years 1,862 1,267 201,415 47,894

25 years 2,434 1,761 227,614 50,476

50 years 2,856 2,124 257,135 51,694

100 years 3,184 2,462 271,931 53,794

High

2 years 1,313 849 189,545 58,843

5 years 2,371 1,696 233,904 60,643

10 years 2,981 2,229 246,857 62,743

25 years 3,548 2,814 264,688 65,643

50 years 3,749 3,067 285,178 68,943

100 years 3,994 3,355 297,725 78,952

Medium

2 years 996 618 148,183 58,543

5 years 1,695 1,172 201,386 58,843

10 years 2,190 1,543 220,663 60,043

25 years 2,742 2,040 259,626 61,943

50 years 3,063 2,307 248,570 62,943

100 years 3,360 2,593 280,549 63,843

Low

2 years 694 450 109,492 58,201

5 years 1,258 805 182,205 58,843

10 years 1,695 1,172 201,409 58,843

25 years 2,235 1,582 221,812 59,643

50 years 2,553 1,865 248,806 61,343

100 years 2,866 2,127 260,849 61,943


S-36




Figure S-15 Simulated Inundation Areas (100-year Return Period)

8.4 Sea Water Intrusion

Sea level rising is one of the most important impacts of climate change. A sea level rise of

0.5cm/year is projected in the Musi River mouth. Some 300,000 people are living in the low-

lying tidal areas, where most of the people are engaged in agriculture. Sea water intrusion that

will be augmented by the sea level rising is anticipated to be one of the most significant threats

to the people in the low-lying coastal areas.

According to interviews with farmers and officials concerned, no significant damage to

agriculture has been reported yet. However, it has been reported that high salinity was detected

at the Sematan Borang Water Intake/Treatment Plant in Palembang (see Figure S-16).

Source: JICA Project Team 2 Photo S-1 Pillar Houses in Flood Plains

S-37



Electric conductivity (EC) observation was conducted along the Musi River in December 2013

by JICA Project Team 2 (see Figure S-16), and the following are considered:

The EC value of Sun Sang is almost that of sea water.

The EC values at Upang and Ampera, located about 45km and 90km upstream from the

river mouth, are almost that of fresh river water.

There is a sign of formation of salt wedge seen at Tanjung Baru (1), about 15km upstream

from the river mouth. The deeper from the water surface, the larger the EC value is.

Makartijaya, about 25km from the river mouth, is almost the lowest limit where harmless

water in terms of salinity is available.

The considerations above are made based only on the one-time EC observation in December

2013, and the salinity in river water near the river mouth generally varies very much due to

the changes of tide level and river discharge. In order to clarify the characteristics of salinity

distribution, therefore, it is necessary to accumulate EC or salinity data by continuous

monitoring of EC or salinity.


Figure S-16 Locations of Salinity-affected Water Intake and Treatment

Plants, and EC Observation Points

S-38



8.5 Sediment Discharge

Sediment discharge under the current and future climates is as follows:

Current Situation of Sediment Discharge

No serious sediment disasters such as large-scale landslides, huge slope failures are

observed in the Musi River basin.

The main sources of sediment discharge are presumed to be supplied by cultivated land

and river.

The sediment distributed in the vast plain is thought to be transported gradually to the

downstream areas by floods.

A huge riverbed deposit was observed in the middle reaches of the Komering River. These

deposits are presumed to be the volcanic sediments which had been transported by

erosion in Pleistocene.

Riverbank failures were confirmed at several sites of the rivers, which are also to be the

source of sediment discharge.

Sediment Discharge under Future Climate Conditions

The amount of sediment discharge under the future climate conditions was estimated by

comparing it with that under current climate conditions using the formula USLE.

The increase ratio of sediment discharge is estimated at 15% on an average against the

present climate (2000), and the average increase ratio of rainfall is expected to be at 3%

(see the table below).

1) Increase Ratio of Sediment Discharge

2) Increase Ratio of Rainfall Amount

8.6 Risk and Resilience of Water Resources Management

The conceivable risks caused by climate change and conceivable resilience measures are

summarized as presented in Table S-27, focusing on four significant hazards, i.e., droughts,

floods, sea water intrusion and sediment discharge. The resilience measures are mostly

categorized into non-structural measures that could be implemented by using existing

resources with less cost.

Basin ID 1-19

High (2050/2000) 1.37

Middle (2050/2000) 1.11

Low (2050/2000) 0.98

Ave 1.15

Basin ID : 1-19

High (2050/2000) 1.08

Middle (2050/2000) 1.07

Low (2050/2000) 0.94

Ave 1.03

S-39



Table S-27 Summary of Risk and Resilience of Water Resources Management

Hazard Risk Resilience Measures

Droughts

• Reduction of agricultural production

• Shortage of water for households, urban facilities and industries

• Damages to ecosystem • Degradation of water

quality

Irrigation water demand management • Change of rice variety (high resistance against high

temperature and less water) • Agriculture operation based on real-time weather forecast • Change of cropping calendar • Use of groundwater • Application of system of Giliran (rotation irrigation method)

and/or Golongan (staggered irrigation method) DUI water demand management • Promotion of saving of water consumption • Rainwater harvesting

Floods

• Direct damages to human lives, houses, infrastructure, agriculture, etc.

• Loss to economic activities (suspension of business operation, etc.)

• Strengthening of response activities (evacuation based on early warning, rescue, relief supply, etc.)

• Publicization of flood hazard maps • Preparation of the Business Continuation Plan (BCP) • Flood plain management (land use regulation and guidance,

promotion of building flood-resilient houses (pilotis-type houses, etc.)

Sea Water Intrusion

• Salt damages to agriculture, potable water, ecology • Careful gate operation based on EC monitoring

Sediment discharge

• Bank erosion • Reduction of river channel

capacity (flood) • Difficulty of navigation

• Monitoring and control of sand mining • Monitoring of change of river channel (regular river cross

section survey • Channel maintenance dredging


(1) Droughts

The total water deficit volume is anticipated to increase from 18% to 74% under climate and

landuse changes, while the occurrence probability of drought year at a sub-basin level depends

significantly upon the climate change scenarios. Accordingly risks of reduction of

agricultural production, shortage of water for DMI (Domestic, Municipal and Industrial)

purposes, damage to ecosystem, degradation of water quality, etc. might increase.

The resilience measures are broadly divided into two, namely irrigation water demand

management and DMI water demand management. Those of the irrigation demand

management include change of rice variety (application of rices of high resistance against high

temperature and less water), agriculture operation based on real-time weather forecast, change

of cropping calendar, use of groundwater, application of Giliran system (rotation irrigation

method) and/or Golongan (staggered irrigation method). It is necessary to empower

stakeholders of both public and private sectors in order to implement them more efficiently

and effectively, although some of them have already been practiced traditionally.

(2) Floods

The impacts on floods would increase under climate and/or land use changes, depending on

future climate scenarios. Therefore, risks of direct damage to human lives, houses,

infrastructures, agriculture and losses to economic activities (suspension of business operation,

etc.) might increase.

The conceivable resilience measures include strengthening of response activities such as

evacuation based on early warning, rescue, relief supply, etc., publicization of flood hazard

maps, preparation of Business Continuation Plan (BCP) and flood plain management. The

S-40



flood plain management is further composed of land use regulation and guidance, and

promotion of building flood-resilient houses, etc. Like the drought hazard, empowerment of

stakeholders is a key for the success of the resilience measures.

(3) Seawater Intrusion

A sea level rise of 0.5cm/year is projected at the Musi River mouth as an impact of climate

change, and there are already some appearing signs of sea water intrusion in the low-lying tidal

areas. As the sea level rises, the sea water intrusion will definitely become worse. Thus it is

concerned that salt damage to agriculture, DMI, ecology, etc. will become more and more

tangible in the near future.

The conceivable resilience measures might be limited for the time being when structural

measures such as barrages are not existing. In the tidal swamp irrigation areas, frequent and

careful gate operation based on EC monitoring might be required to prevent sea water intrusion

in the secondary/tertiary canals.

(4) Sediment Discharge

According to the preliminary analysis of sediment discharge by the USLE method, the

sediment discharge of the Musi River basin increases by 37%, 11% or -2%, depending on the

future climate scenarios as impact of climate change. Thus, sedimentation in the river channel

might be augmented, resulting in aggradation of riverbed that further leads to overflow of flood

water from the river banks and difficulty of navigation. In addition, river discharge increased

by climate change might accelerate the river bank erosion.

The conceivable resilience measures are monitoring of river channel change (for instance,

througth regular river cross section survey) and channel maintenance dredging against

sedimentation. Control and monitoring of sand mining are also conceivable resilience

measures to protect the river bank erosion.

9. FORMULATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONM MEASURES UP TO 2050

The priority actions that should be implemented during the three periods of time, up to 2050,

namely; (i) 2020 to 2030, (ii) 2031 to 2040 and (iii) 2041 to 2050, for the climate change

adaptation measures are as compiled in Table 10.6.1 (Chapter 10): the priority actions are

similar to the measures which have been formulated in the current POLA and RENCANA for

the MSBL River basin. The Musi River basin (the project target area) has a great

development potential, but its actual development is still delayed. Therefore, the proposed

actions are to be regarded not only as adaptation measures for climate change but also as

measures that could bring about comprehensive development in the project area especially in

terms of water resources management. The differences between the proposed adaptation

measures and the measures in the present POLA and RENCANA are also summarized in Table

S-28.

S-41



Table S-28 Summary of Differences between Proposed Climate Change Adaptation Measures and Measures Formulated in POLA and RENCANA

Items POLA (2014) and RENCANA

(2017) Proposed Adaptation measures

in this Project Remarks

Target Year POLA: 2033

RENCANA: 2036 2050

Target Area MSBL River basins (86,00km2) Musi, Sugihan and Banyuasin River basins (76,000 km2)

Aspects Covered

Five aspects, conservation of integrated water resources, utilization of water resources, water damage control, water resources information system and empowerment and enhancement of the role of the community and business community are covered.

The five aspects of POLA and RENCANA are covered, but more focusing on utilization of water resources and water damage control.

Consideration of Climate Change

Impacts

It is described in POLA that two climate change scenarios (no significant climate change and significant climate change impact) are considered, but there is no description about how these climate change scenarios were incorporated in the operational policies.

Three climate scenarios (High, Medium and Low) are considered. Quantitative analyses were also conducted for assessment of climate change impacts on flood and drought.

Proposed Activities/Actions

Several hundreds of activities that cover the five aspects are proposed in

RENCANA.

More important actions are proposed for water resources development, water supply and flood management as well as adaptation to climate change impacts on flood and drought.

There are a lot of common activities/actions for both.


10 PROPOSED CLIMATE CHANGE MEASURES TO BE INCORPORATED INTO

POLA/RENCANA

The current POLA and RENCANA were approved officially in 2014 and 2017 respectively.

These policy and strategy documents that cover a period of 20 years onwards are supposed to

be reviewed and evauated at least every five years, following the Ministerial Regulation of

“NOMOR 10/PRT/M/2015. Therefore, the next review/evaluation would be made around

2019 for POLA and around 2022 for RENCANA, respectively and the proposed adaptation

measures/actions for the period from 2020 to 2040 compiled in Table 10.6.1 (Chapter 10)

should be incorporated into the next POLA and RENCANA through the review/evaluation.

S-42



<< CAPACITY STRENGTHENING >>

11. CAPACITY STRENGTHENING

(1) The Project Team 2 held workshops in Jakarta, Surabaya and Palembang as part of their

capacity strengthening activities for the Indonesian side. In the workshops, the

respective experts of JICA Project Team 2 provided presentations including lectures on

survey/study methods and introduction of study examples in Japan and other countries

with the aim of deepening the participants’ technical knowledge and understanding

through discussions and exchange of opinions among the participants, inviting mainly

working-level engineers from counterpart agencies and local consultant companies for

individual topics/subjects on expertise of each expert.

(2) In the Phase 1 of the Project from June 2013 to June 2016, the first and second country-

focused trainings were carried out in the aspect of “Assessment of Climate Change

Impacts” by JICA Project Team 2 in cooperation with JICA Project Team 1, headed by

Prof. Dr. Koike, the University of Tokyo, in charge of Project Component 1, aiming to

strengthen the capacity for the Indonesian side to plan water resources management in

future climate conditions. Furthermore, in the Phase 2 from July 2016 to December 2019,

the third and fourth country-focused trainings were conducted in the aspect of “Water

Resources Management Plan” by the Team 2 with the same aim as in Phase 1.

(3) JICA Project Team 2 has held the first to fourth seminars in Jakarta, Surabaya and Palembang

in the Project as part of efforts toward dissemination and publicity on the project outcomes

with the support and cooperation of JICA and JICA Project Team 1. The second seminar in

JKT (19 May 2014) included press reporting as well. Besides, the second seminar was

started with an opening address by Dr. Ir. Basoeki Hadimoeljono, DG of Spatial Planning,

MPW (currently the Minister of MPWH). The third seminar was held in Palembang and

Jakarta, starting with the opening addresses by Ir. Jarot, General Manager of BBWS Sumatra

VIII in PLMB and Ir. Imam Santoso, DG of Water Resources, MPWH in JKT, respectively.

The fourth seminar was held as the last one in the three (3) cities above in November

2019 to widely share the outcome of the Project, including the handbook, in Indonesia.

S-43



<< CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS >>

12. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

12.1 Formulation of Climate Change Adaptation Measures for POLA and RENCANA

The Project formulated climate change adaptation measures consisting of structural and non-

structural measures with the aim of mitigating the damage which is anticipated to be inflicted

on the water resources management by climate change for the POLA and RENCANA of the

Brantas and Musi River basins. The adaptation measures have been drawn out based on

projected future climate data with uncertainty that is inherent in themselves and also the data

and information including those which were barely accepted for the Project. Therefore, it is

essential to carry on taking actions in due consideration of the following recommendations and

items in Table 12.1.1 (Chapter 12) toward the stages coming for:

(1) Review of the climate change adaptation measures formulated in the Project for the

Brantas and Musi River basins as well as their POLAs and RENCANAs, and

(2) Formulation of climate change adaptation measures to be incorporated in POLAs and

RENCANAs for other river basins in Indonesia.

12.2 Organization and Institution

(1) Agriculture and Irrigation Sector

(a) Horizontal Coordination and Vertical Collaboration among Stakeholders

Among the enabling stakeholders, horizontal coordination for improving irrigation

management activities is recommended in DGWR and its river basin organizations from

planning to implementation and O&M sections aiming to overcome the bureaucracy. In

addition, vertical collaboration for institutional strengthening purpose is also recommended

among DGWR, Directorate General of Land and Water (DGLW) under the Ministry of

Agriculture (MOA), Irrigation Service Offices of provinces and local governments, Irrigation

Commission chaired by the head of local government (Bupati), water users association (WUA),

and knowledge and technology centers.

(b) Actions for Institutional Strengthening and Empowerment of Human Resources

It is recommended to practice actions for institutional strengthening and empowerment of

human resources in participatory manner as shown in Table S-29.

S-44



Table S-29 Substances and Actors of Institutional Strengthening and Empowerment of People

Actions Key Actors Institutional Strengthening 1. Establishing/ revitalizing of irrigation commission and setting-up of modern

irrigation implementer unit and basin water management coordination team Director General (DG) of DGWR, DG of DGLW of MOA, Governor, Bupati

2. Setting-up of design & knowledge management center3. Setting-up of irrigation and agriculture empowerment unit4. Supporting of irrigation guards 5. Setting-up of mobile maintenance unit6. Organizing/ revitalizing of WUA Empowerment of Human Resources 1. Stimulating of self-awareness of status position

Minister, DG of DGWR, Governor, Bupati

2. Issuing of training certificate 3. Establishing of recruitment system and career planning4. Introducing of incentive system


(2) Other Sectors

As a whole, the existing institutional framework and organizational arrangements for water

resources management in both river basins seem adequate. However, some significant

concerns were identified in the Project. It is recommended to bear in mind these matters and

to deliberate remedial actions when incorporating the proposed adaptation measures into

POLA. Points of attention are as enumerated below.

(a) Integrated management of surface water and groundwater [for both basins]

Groundwater conservation has been proposed as part of water preservation measures in both

river basins. Groundwater and surface water are likely to affect each other. In order to

properly conserve and utilize the groundwater resources, it is necessary to consider the

groundwater and surface water resources in an integrated manner through (i) sharing

groundwater information, (ii) formulation of groundwater use plan integrated with surface

water and (iii) coordination in various measures.

(b) Clarification of roles in actions for flood hazard mapping and early warning system [for

both basins]

Flood hazard mapping and early warning system have been proposed as part of non-structural

measures against floods. Flood hazard maps are to be prepared for various purposes including

public’s evacuation.

A lot of agencies are involved in operating a flood early warning system for evacuation at each

step from hydrological monitoring to data analysis, warning issuance and warning

dissemination. Hence, roles and procedures need to be discussed and recognized among the

agencies through documentation.

(c) Enhancement of coordination through TKPSDA for establishment of SIH3 [for Brantas]

A hydrological, hydrogeological and hydro-climatological information system named “SIH3”

is being developed jointly by BBWS-Brantas, PJT-I, BMKG and local governments concerned.

There is no specific rule of data sharing set down even between BBWS-Brantas and PJT-1.

Since facilitation of SIH3 development is one of the important tasks of TKPSDA, it is deemed

desirable to facilitate the system development by explicitly writing the tasks of TKPSDA and

by determining how to practically share the data owned by the respective agencies.

S-45



(d) Effective Coordination among Key Agencies for Watershed Management [for Brantas]

Watershed conservation is positioned as one of the water resources conservation measures in

the Brantas River basin and there are many groups, such as BBWS-Brantas, PJT-I , Brantas-

Sampean BPDASHL, Perhutan3 and local governments, related to the watershed management

in the basin. Although BPDASHL is supposed to be the leading agency for the management,

the four major agencies, namely two Balai plus two Perum, need to closely coordinate toward

harmonized implementation of watershed conservation activities.

(e) Reconciliatory Coordination by BAPPEDA in Land Use Planning [for Musi]

Land use revision has been proposed for the Musi River basin as part of water resources

conservation measures. There is an issue that some administrative boundaries of regencies are

not clearly and properly delineated among local governments concerned.

BAPPEDA (South Sumatra Province) is expected to play a key role by coordinating these two

regencies when they insist on different policies in formulating development plans or land use.

12.3 Handbook

POLA and RENCANA are being developed in Indonesia to properly manage water resources

based on the Law No. 17/2019 on Water Resources and the Ministerial Regulation of

“NOMOR 10/PRT/M/20154, which require to formulate POLA and RENCANA (hereinafter

referred as “the Water Resources Management Plans”) corresponding to the impacts of future

climate change. The Project has formulated proposals for reflecting climate change impacts in

the Water Resources Management Plans of the Brantas and the Musi River basins, and also

prepared a handbook to be applicable to those for other river basins in Indonesia, taking climate

change issues into account. The handbook was produced in due consideration of the knowledge

and lessons obtained in the Project with the chief concept of formulating adaptation measures

which aim to materialize less rework and less disaster risk.

The Project, which commenced in 2013, has been conducted in reference to the IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report. Hence, it is important that the assessment reports to be issued in the future

by IPCC shall be referred to as the need arises for the application of the Handbook to the Water

Resources Management Plans.

3 Perum Perhutani, which is a state-owned enterprise that has the duty and authority to carry out planning, management, exploitation and protection of forests in its working area. It was established initially based on the Government Regulation No.15/1972. 4 No. 10/PRT/M/2015 REGARDING PLAN AND TECHNICAL PLAN OF WATER ARRANGEMENTS AND IRRIGATION SYSTEM

S-46



12.4 Conclusions and Recommendations

Valuable knowledge and lessons were accumulated by the Project in the course of projecting

the future climate conditions up to 2050 and formulating the climate change adaptation

measures for the Brantas and Musi River basins. These knowledge and lessons have been

entirely incorporated into the above-mentioned handbook.

In view of the above, it is recommended to push forward formulation of climate change

adaptation measures to be included in POLAs and RENCANAs of other river basins in

Indonesia without any delay by properly using the handbook so as to respond to the need of

adaptation measures, placing particular importance on those people who would be vulnerable

to negative impacts on water resources from the anticipated future climate change in Indonesia.

S-47

- i -

The Republic of Indonesia

THE PROJECT FOR

ASSESSING AND INTEGRATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS INTO THE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLANS FOR

BRANTAS AND MUSI RIVER BASINS (WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN)

FINAL REPORT

VOLUME II MAIN REPORT

Table of Contents

Project Location Map Photographs Abbreviations Summary

Page

PART 1 GENERAL

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1-1

1.1 Background of the Project .............................................................................................. 1-1

1.2 Goal and Expected Outputs of the Project ..................................................................... 1-2

1.3 Objectives of the Project (Component-2: Water Resources Management Plan) ............ 1-2

1.4 Project Area .................................................................................................................... 1-3

1.5 Project Schedule ............................................................................................................. 1-3

1.6 Scope of Component-2 ................................................................................................... 1-3

1.7 Object Agencies for the Project...................................................................................... 1-4

1.8 Final Report ................................................................................................................... 1-4

CHAPTER 2 MOVEMENT RELEVANT TO WATER RESOURCES IN

INDONESIA ........................................................................................................ 2-1

2.1 Movement of River Basin Water Resources Management............................................. 2-1

2.2 Movement of Climate Change Measures ....................................................................... 2-5

2.3 Repeal of Law No.7/2004 on Water Resources ............................................................. 2-7

- ii -

PART 2 STUDY FOR BRANTAS RIVER BASIN

CHAPTER 3 COLLECTION AND COMPILATION OF INFORMATION AND DATA ..................................................................................................................... 3-1

3.1 Natural Condition of the Project Area ............................................................................ 3-1

3.1.1 Topography .............................................................................................................. 3-1

3.1.2 Meteorology and Hydrology .................................................................................... 3-1

3.1.3 Geology and Hydrogeology ..................................................................................... 3-5

3.1.4 River ......................................................................................................................... 3-7

3.1.5 Natural Environment ................................................................................................ 3-8

3.1.6 Water Quality ........................................................................................................... 3-9

3.1.7 Land Condition ........................................................................................................ 3-9

3.2 Social Condition of the Project Area ............................................................................ 3-10

3.2.1 Administrative Boundary ....................................................................................... 3-10

3.2.2 Population .............................................................................................................. 3-10

3.2.3 Land Use ................................................................................................................ 3-10

3.2.4 Industrial Structure ................................................................................................. 3-10

3.2.5 Socio-economic Condition ..................................................................................... 3-11

3.2.6 Social Environment ................................................................................................ 3-11

3.2.7 Wastewater ............................................................................................................. 3-11

3.3 Current State of Water Sector ....................................................................................... 3-12

3.3.1 Regional Development Plan Related to Water Resources ...................................... 3-12

3.3.2 Water Resources Management Strategic Plan (POLA) .......................................... 3-14

3.3.3 Review POLA 2015 (Draft) ................................................................................... 3-16

3.3.4 Related Organization and Institution of Water Resources Management ................ 3-18

3.3.5 Present Water Allocation ........................................................................................ 3-21

CHAPTER 4 FIELD SURVEY AND OBSERVATION ............................................................ 4-1

4.1 River Cross Section Survey ........................................................................................... 4-1

4.2 Groundwater Level Observation .................................................................................... 4-1

CHAPTER 5 ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN 2050 ........................ 5-1

5.1 General ........................................................................................................................... 5-1

5.2 Ground Elevation and Land Use in 2050 ....................................................................... 5-1

5.2.1 Mesh Data of Ground Elevation .............................................................................. 5-1

5.2.2 Land Use in 2050 ..................................................................................................... 5-1

5.3 Water Use ....................................................................................................................... 5-2

- iii -

5.3.1 Water Demand Projection ...................................................................................... 5-2

5.3.2 Groundwater Use ................................................................................................... 5-14

5.3.3 Surface Water Use .................................................................................................. 5-25

5.3.4 Assessment of Land Use Change ........................................................................... 5-51

5.4 Flood ............................................................................................................................ 5-51

5.4.1 Flood Inundation Simulation.................................................................................. 5-51

5.4.2 Assessment of the Existing River Facilities ........................................................... 5-54

5.4.3 Flood Control Storage and Effects by Sutami Dam ............................................... 5-72

5.5 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in 2050 ......................................................... 5-76

5.5.1 Safety Level ........................................................................................................... 5-76

5.5.2 Risk and Resilience ................................................................................................ 5-79

CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR WATER

RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLANS OF THE BRANTAS RIVER BASIN .................................................................................................................... 6-1

6.1 Planning Methodology of the Water Resources Management Plans Reflecting Climate Change Impacts ................................................................................................ 6-1

6.1.1 Planning Methodology of Water Use ....................................................................... 6-1

6.1.2 Planning Methodology of Rainstorms and Floods ................................................... 6-1

6.2 Optimization of the Existing Water Resources Management Facilities to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts on Rainstorms, Floods and Draughts ..................................... 6-5

6.2.1 Rainstorms and Floods ............................................................................................. 6-5

6.2.2 Drought .................................................................................................................... 6-5

6.3 Identification of Other Adaptation Measures against Climate Change Impacts ............ 6-5

6.3.1 Adaptation Measures against Rainstorms and Floods .............................................. 6-5

6.3.2 Adaptation Measures against Drought ................................................................... 6-33

6.3.3 Sabo Management .................................................................................................. 6-49

6.3.4 Watershed Conservation ......................................................................................... 6-51

6.4 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) ................................................................ 6-54

6.4.1 Legal Framework on Environment in Indonesia .................................................... 6-54

6.4.2 Study Approach on Environmental and Social Considerations for the Project ...... 6-56

6.4.3 Examination Results .............................................................................................. 6-58

6.5 Formulation of Priority Actions, Preliminary Cost Estimation and Implementation Schedule for Adaptation and Mitigation Measures against Climate Change Impacts .............................................................................................. 6-72

6.5.1 Rainstorms and Floods ........................................................................................... 6-72

6.5.2 Drought .................................................................................................................. 6-79

6.5.3 Groundwater Resources Management ................................................................... 6-88

- iv -

6.5.4 Sabo Management .................................................................................................. 6-92

6.5.5 Watershed Conservation ......................................................................................... 6-94

6.6 Proposed Climate Change Measures to be Incorporated into POLA and RENCANA .................................................................................................................. 6-97

6.6.1 Climate Change Measures against Rainstorms and Floods ................................. 6-100

6.6.2 Climate Change Measures against Drought ......................................................... 6-102

6.6.3 Organization and Institution ................................................................................. 6-104

PART 3 STUDY FOR MUSI RIVER BASIN

CHAPTER 7 COLLECTION AND COMPILATION OF INFORMATION AND DATA ..................................................................................................................... 7-1

7.1 Natural Condition of Project Area.................................................................................. 7-1

7.1.1 Topography and Geology ......................................................................................... 7-1

7.1.2 Climate, Hydrology and Rivers ................................................................................ 7-2

7.1.3 Groundwater ............................................................................................................. 7-4

7.1.4 Sediment................................................................................................................... 7-6

7.1.5 Natural Environment .............................................................................................. 7-12

7.2 Social Condition of Project Area.................................................................................. 7-12

7.2.1 Administration ....................................................................................................... 7-12

7.2.2 Population .............................................................................................................. 7-13

7.2.3 Economy ................................................................................................................ 7-14

7.2.4 Land Use ................................................................................................................ 7-15

7.2.5 Agriculture ............................................................................................................. 7-17

7.2.6 Social Environment ................................................................................................ 7-19

7.3 Current State of Water Sector ....................................................................................... 7-20

7.3.1 River Basin Management ....................................................................................... 7-20

7.3.2 Water Use ............................................................................................................... 7-32

7.3.3 Flood and Sediment Discharge .............................................................................. 7-36

7.3.4 Peat Land Management .......................................................................................... 7-39

7.4 Existing Future Plans on Land and Water Resources Management ............................. 7-41

7.4.1 Spatial Plan ............................................................................................................ 7-41

7.4.2 POLA and RENCANA for Water Resources Management of MBSL River Basin ...................................................................................................................... 7-43

CHAPTER 8 FIELD SURVEY AND OBSERVATION ............................................................ 8-1

8.1 River Survey .................................................................................................................. 8-1

8.1.1 River Cross Section Survey ..................................................................................... 8-1

- v -

8.1.2 Tide and Water Level Gauge Survey ........................................................................ 8-1

8.2 Groundwater Level Observation .................................................................................... 8-2

8.2.1 Construction of Groundwater Level Observation Wells .......................................... 8-2

8.2.2 Groundwater Level Observation .............................................................................. 8-3

8.3 Discharge Measurement ................................................................................................. 8-4

8.3.1 Construction and Restoration of Water Level Gauges ............................................. 8-4

8.3.2 Discharge Measurement ........................................................................................... 8-6

8.4 Survey on Crop Modeling Data ..................................................................................... 8-8

8.4.1 Simulation Model for Rice-Weather Relation .......................................................... 8-8

8.4.2 Survey Items and Method ........................................................................................ 8-8

8.4.3 Survey Area .............................................................................................................. 8-9

8.4.4 Survey Results .......................................................................................................... 8-9

8.4.5 Findings .................................................................................................................. 8-11

CHAPTER 9 ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN 2050 ........................ 9-1

9.1 General ........................................................................................................................... 9-1

9.2 Ground Elevation and Land Use in 2050 ....................................................................... 9-1

9.2.1 Mesh Data of Ground Elevation .............................................................................. 9-1

9.2.2 Future Land Use ....................................................................................................... 9-2

9.3 Water Use ....................................................................................................................... 9-6

9.3.1 Projection of Water Use ........................................................................................... 9-6

9.3.2 Water Balance Analysis .......................................................................................... 9-15

9.4 Flood ............................................................................................................................ 9-22

9.4.1 Set up of Flood Inundation Model ......................................................................... 9-22

9.4.2 Model Calibration .................................................................................................. 9-23

9.4.3 Simulation Results of Impact of Land Use and Climate Changes ......................... 9-25

9.4.4 Increase of Heavy Rainfall ..................................................................................... 9-28

9.5 Assessment of Climate Change Impact in 2050 .......................................................... 9-29

9.5.1 Drought .................................................................................................................. 9-29

9.5.2 Flood ...................................................................................................................... 9-30

9.6 Other Impacts ............................................................................................................... 9-32

9.6.1 Sea Water Intrusion ................................................................................................ 9-32

9.6.2 Sediment Discharge ............................................................................................... 9-34

9.7 Risk and Resilience of Water Resources Management ................................................ 9-36

9.7.1 Concept of Risk and Resilience Assessment for Water Resources Management ........................................................................................................... 9-36

9.7.2 Risk and Resilience of Water Resources Management .......................................... 9-36

- vi -

CHAPTER 10 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLANS OF MUSI RIVER BASIN ........ 10-1

10.1 Planning Methodology of Water Resources Management Plans Reflecting Climate Change Impacts .............................................................................................. 10-1

10.2 Planning Policies of Adaptation Measures ................................................................... 10-1

10.3 Optimization of Existing Water Resources Management Facilities to Mitigate Climate Change Impacts on Rainstorms and Floods and Droughts ............................. 10-1

10.3.1 Optimization of Existing Water Resources Management Facilities for Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts on Floods ................................................. 10-1

10.3.2 Optimization of Existing Water Resources Management Facilities for Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts on Droughts ........................................... 10-3

10.4 Identification of Other Adaptation and Mitigation Measures against Climate Change Impacts ............................................................................................................ 10-8

10.4.1 Adaptation Measures against Rainstorms and Floods ............................................ 10-8

10.4.2 Adaptation Measures against Droughts................................................................ 10-23

10.4.3 Adaptation Measures against Sea Water Intrusion ............................................... 10-48

10.4.4 Peat Land Management ........................................................................................ 10-51

10.4.5 Strengthening of Hydrological Monitoring .......................................................... 10-55

10.5 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) .............................................................. 10-58

10.5.1 Applicable Laws and Regulations ........................................................................ 10-58

10.5.2 Comparison of Alternative Structure Measures ................................................... 10-58

10.5.3 Scoping................................................................................................................. 10-60

10.5.4 Stakeholders Meeting ........................................................................................... 10-62

10.6 Formulation of Priority Actions until 2050 and Incorporation into POLA and RENCANA for Adaptation and Mitigation against Climate Change Impacts ........... 10-62

10.6.1 Proposed Priority Actions .................................................................................... 10-62

10.6.2 Preliminary Cost Estimation for Water Resources Development and Water Supply .................................................................................................................. 10-67

10.6.3 Implementation Schedule ..................................................................................... 10-69

10.6.4 Organization and Institution ................................................................................. 10-70

10.6.5 Economic Analysis and Project Evaluation ......................................................... 10-75

10.7 Proposed Climate Change Measures to be Incorporated into POLA and RENCANA ................................................................................................................ 10-76

PART 4 CAPACITY STRENGTHENING

CHAPTER 11 CAPACITY STRENGTHENING .................................................................. 11-1

11.1 Workshops .................................................................................................................... 11-1

- vii -

11.2 Country-focused Training in Japan .............................................................................. 11-1

11.3 Seminars ....................................................................................................................... 11-5

PART 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

CHAPTER 12 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................... 12-1

12.1 Formulation of Climate Change Adaptation Measures for POLA and RENCANA .................................................................................................................. 12-1

12.2 Organization and Institution ......................................................................................... 12-3

12.2.1 Agriculture and Irrigation Sector ........................................................................... 12-3

12.2.2 Other Sectors .......................................................................................................... 12-4

12.3 Handbook ..................................................................................................................... 12-6

12.4 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................ 12-7

- viii -

List of Tables

Page

Table 2.1.1 Laws and Ministerial Regulations of MoPW Related to Law on Water Resources No.7/2004 .............................................................................................. 2-2

Table 2.1.2 River Basin Organizations for River Basins under Jurisdiction of MPWH ........... 2-2

Table 2.1.3 Laws and Regulations concerning BLU ................................................................. 2-3

Table 2.1.4 Role Sharing among Central and Local Governments ........................................... 2-5

Table 2.2.1 Overview of Institutional Context on Climate Change Measures in Indonesia ................................................................................................................ 2-6

Table 2.3.1 Ministerial Regulations/2015, MPWH ................................................................... 2-8

Table 3.1.1 Meteorological Gauging Stations in the Brantas River Basin ................................ 3-2

Table 3.1.2 Tidal Level Measured at Kenjeran ......................................................................... 3-3

Table 3.1.3 Topographical Zone in the Brantas River Basin ..................................................... 3-5

Table 3.1.4 Hydrogeological Classification in the Brantas River Basin ................................... 3-6

Table 3.1.5 Seasonal Monitoring Result of Water Quality of the Brantas River in 2012 .......... 3-9

Table 3.1.6 Annual Monitoring Result of Water Quality of the Brantas River in 2010-2014 ............................................................................................................... 3-9

Table 3.2.1 Regencies and Cities Located in the Brantas River Basin .................................... 3-10

Table 3.2.2 Present Land Use in the Brantas River Basin ....................................................... 3-10

Table 3.3.1 Outline of POLA .................................................................................................. 3-14

Table 3.3.2 Review Results of Review POLA 2015 (Draft) ................................................... 3-16

Table 4.1.1 Number of River Cross Section to Each River ....................................................... 4-1

Table 4.1.2 Longitudinal Profile of Survey Work ..................................................................... 4-1

Table 4.2.1 Groundwater Data in the Brantas River Basin Obtained from Several Projects ................................................................................................................... 4-2

Table 5.2.1 Projected Land Use in the Brantas River Basin for 2031 and 2050 ....................... 5-2

Table 5.3.1 Basic Condition for Demand Forecast – Demand in 2010 ..................................... 5-3

Table 5.3.2 Increasing Ratio for Demand Forecast until 2050 .................................................. 5-3

Table 5.3.3 Projection of Population until 2050 ........................................................................ 5-3

Table 5.3.4 Summary for Water Demand Projection until 2050 ............................................... 5-4

Table 5.3.5 Comparison of Irrigation Water Requirement Calculation Methodologies ............ 5-6

Table 5.3.6 Existing Surface Water Irrigation Areas in the Brantas River Basin ...................... 5-7

Table 5.3.7 List of BBWS Brantas Managed Irrigation Schemes by Water Source River ........ 5-7

Table 5.3.8 Current Utilization Rate and Paddy Cropping Intensity of Irrigation Schemes .................................................................................................................. 5-8

Table 5.3.9 Prediction of Future Irrigation Areas in the Brantas River Basin ........................... 5-9

Table 5.3.10 Seasonal Average of Unit Irrigation Water Requirement by Major Scheme ........ 5-10

- ix -

Table 5.3.11 Seasonal Average of Unit Irrigation Water Requirement by Regency/ City ........ 5-10

Table 5.3.12 Average Irrigation Water Demand for Regulated Flow-based Irrigation Schemes ................................................................................................................ 5-11

Table 5.3.13 Average Irrigation Water Demand for Natural Flow-based Irrigation Schemes ................................................................................................................ 5-12

Table 5.3.14 Maintenance Flow ................................................................................................ 5-13

Table 5.3.15 Power Supply Projection ...................................................................................... 5-13

Table 5.3.16 Hydropower Plant in the Brantas River Basin ...................................................... 5-14

Table 5.3.17 Model Structure .................................................................................................... 5-15

Table 5.3.18 Analytical Method of Simulation ......................................................................... 5-16

Table 5.3.19 Boundary Conditions ............................................................................................ 5-16

Table 5.3.20 Total Present and Future Groundwater Demand in the Brantas River Basin ....... 5-17

Table 5.3.21 Evaluation of Present Groundwater Potential by Regency/City in the Brantas River Basin .............................................................................................. 5-18

Table 5.3.22 Evaluation of 2030 Groundwater Potential in the Brantas River Basin ............... 5-19

Table 5.3.23 Groundwater Recharge and Groundwater Demand in the Brantas River Basin (2050) ......................................................................................................... 5-20

Table 5.3.24 Evaluation of Groundwater Potential in the Brantas River Basin (2050) ............ 5-21

Table 5.3.25 Detailed Evaluation with Component of Groundwater Flow (Medium Scenario) ............................................................................................................... 5-21

Table 5.3.26 Evaluation Standard for Additional Groundwater Development Potential .......... 5-23

Table 5.3.27 Evaluation and Additional Groundwater Development Potential for Each Scenario ................................................................................................................ 5-23

Table 5.3.28 Points to be Noted in Groundwater Development ................................................ 5-24

Table 5.3.29 Assigned Environmental Flow at Sutami, Mrican and New Lengkong ............... 5-26

Table 5.3.30 List of Existing and Planned Storage Structures until 2030 ................................. 5-34

Table 5.3.31 Status of Proposed Dams in the Brantas River Basin as of September 2016 ....... 5-35

Table 5.3.32 Assessment Results of Storage Volumes of Long Storage Structures Proposed in Review POLA 2015 (Draft) .............................................................. 5-36

Table 5.3.33 Estimation of Increase Rates in Future Sediment Yield ....................................... 5-37

Table 5.3.34 Case for Estimation of Future Dam Reservoir Sedimentation ............................. 5-37

Table 5.3.35 Prediction of Gross Storage Volumes of Dam Reservoirs in 2030 ....................... 5-38

Table 5.3.36 Prediction of Gross Storage Volumes of Dam Reservoirs in 2050 ....................... 5-38

Table 5.3.37 Water Balance Study Scenario.............................................................................. 5-39

Table 5.3.38 Second Largest Deficit of Municipal and Industrial Water Supply ...................... 5-39

Table 5.3.39 Fourth Largest Deficit of Cropped Area for Each Scenario ................................. 5-40

- x -

Table 5.3.40 Power Generation of Principal Hydropower Station in the Brantas River Basin ..................................................................................................................... 5-40

Table 5.3.41 Available Municipal and Industrial Water Supply ................................................ 5-41

Table 5.3.42 Cropped Area for Each Scenario .......................................................................... 5-41

Table 5.3.43 Power Generation of Principal Hydropower Station in the Brantas River Basin ..................................................................................................................... 5-42

Table 5.3.44 Summary of Scenarios 3 and 4 Considering Safety Level ................................... 5-42

Table 5.3.45 Total Irrigation Area under the Local Governments ............................................. 5-43

Table 5.3.46 Cropping Intensity of Present Irrigation Area ...................................................... 5-49

Table 5.3.47 Efficiency of Ponds .............................................................................................. 5-49

Table 5.3.48 Cropped Area and Cropping Intensity .................................................................. 5-49

Table 5.3.49 Rate of Change between Present and Future Conditions ..................................... 5-50

Table 5.3.50 Cropping Intensity with Efficiency of Ponds under Future Scenario ................... 5-50

Table 5.4.1 Relationship between Inundation Pattern and Analysis Model ............................ 5-51

Table 5.4.2 Probable Peak Discharge under Future Conditions .............................................. 5-53

Table 5.4.3 Freeboard Comparison with Present and Future Conditions ................................ 5-54

Table 5.4.4 Damage Ratio of Houses ...................................................................................... 5-56

Table 5.4.5 Calculation Condition for Flood Inundation Analysis on the Porong River ........ 5-56

Table 5.4.6 Summary of Inundation Depth and Inundated Area (Porong River) .................... 5-57

Table 5.4.7 Peak Discharge of Upper End Boundary (Widas River Basin) ............................ 5-59

Table 5.4.8 Results of Flood Inundation Analysis (Widas River Basin) ................................. 5-60

Table 5.4.9 Peak Discharge of Upper End Boundary (Sadar River Basin) ............................. 5-62

Table 5.4.10 Results of Flood Inundation Analysis (Sadar River Basin) .................................. 5-64

Table 5.4.11 Peak Discharge of Upper End Boundary (Ngotok River Basin) .......................... 5-66

Table 5.4.12 Results of Flood Inundation Analysis (Ngotok River Basin) ............................... 5-67

Table 5.4.13 Peak Discharge of Upper End Boundary (Tawing River Basin) .......................... 5-70

Table 5.4.14 Results of Flood Inundation Analysis (Tawing River Basin) ............................... 5-71

Table 5.4.15 Designed Flood Control Operation of Sutami Dam ............................................. 5-72

Table 5.4.16 Cases for Simulation of Flood Control Operation of Sutami Dam in 2050 ......... 5-73

Table 5.4.17 Simulation Results of Flood Control Operation of Sutami Dam in 2050 ............. 5-74

Table 5.5.1 Comparison Results of Deficit to Irrigation Water Supply and Municipal and Industrial Water Supply, and Annual Power Generation ............................... 5-76

Table 5.5.2 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Widas River) ............ 5-78

Table 5.5.3 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Sadar River) ............. 5-78

Table 5.5.4 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Ngotok River) .......... 5-78

Table 5.5.5 Average Return Period Estimated from Future Condition (Tawing River) .......... 5-78

- xi -

Table 5.5.6 Conceivable Assessment of Flood Damage and Resilience in the Brantas River Basin ......................................................................................................... 5-80

Table 5.5.7 Conceivable Assessment of Drought Damage and Resilience in the Brantas River Basin ......................................................................................................... 5-81

Table 5.5.8 Expected Future Situation and Risk ..................................................................... 5-82

Table 5.5.9 Risk under Climate Change Condition ................................................................. 5-85

Table 5.5.10 Damage of Drought .............................................................................................. 5-88

Table 5.5.11 Location of Overtop Sections ............................................................................... 5-89

Table 5.5.12 Summary of Flood Risk........................................................................................ 5-89

Table 5.5.13 Summary of Risk and Resilience of Water Resources Management .................. 5-90

Table 5.5.14 List of Quantitative Measures of Resilience ......................................................... 5-91

Table 5.5.15 Result of Control Water Level in Dry Season ...................................................... 5-92

Table 5.5.16 Result of Control Water Level Method ................................................................ 5-93

Table 5.5.17 Efficiency of Resilience (Medium Scenario) ....................................................... 5-93

Table 5.5.18 Result of Reservoir Operation .............................................................................. 5-93

Table 6.3.1 Applicable Adaptation Measures to Target River Basins ....................................... 6-6

Table 6.3.2 Summary of Alternatives (Widas River Basin) ...................................................... 6-7

Table 6.3.3 Comparison of Alternative Structures (Medium Scenario) .................................... 6-7

Table 6.3.4 Basic Feature of the Proposed Measures (Medium Scenario) ................................ 6-8

Table 6.3.5 Inundation Area of Each Return Period (Medium Scenario) .................................. 6-9

Table 6.3.6 Result of Selection of the Structural Measures (Medium Scenario) ...................... 6-9

Table 6.3.7 Comparison of Alternative Structures (Low Scenario) .......................................... 6-9

Table 6.3.8 Basic Feature of the Proposed Measures (Low Scenario) .................................... 6-10

Table 6.3.9 Inundation Area of Each Return Period (Low Scenario) ...................................... 6-10

Table 6.3.10 Result of Selection of the Structural Measures (Low Scenario) ........................... 6-10

Table 6.3.11 Comparison of Alternative Structures (High Scenario) ........................................ 6-11

Table 6.3.12 Basic Feature of the Proposed Measures (High Scenario) ................................... 6-11

Table 6.3.13 Inundation Area of Each Return Period (High Scenario) ..................................... 6-11

Table 6.3.14 Result of Selection of the Structural Measures (High Scenario) .......................... 6-12

Table 6.3.15 Summary of the Adaptation Measure for Each Scenario (Widas River) .............. 6-13

Table 6.3.16 Inundation Area of Each Return Period (Medium Scenario) ................................ 6-13

Table 6.3.17 Basic Feature of the Proposed Flood Dike (Medium Scenario) ........................... 6-14

Table 6.3.18 Result of Selection of the Structural Measures (Medium Scenario) .................... 6-14


Table 6.3.20 Basic Feature of the Proposed Flood Dike (Low Scenario) ................................. 6-15



- xii -

Table 6.3.23 Basic Feature of the Proposed Flood Dike (High Scenario)................................. 6-16


Table 6.3.25 Summary of the Adaptation Measure for Each Scenario (Ngotok River) ............ 6-17










Table 6.3.35 Summary of the Adaptation Measure for Each Scenario (Sadar River) ............... 6-21










Table 6.3.45 Summary of the Adaptation Measure for Each Scenario (Tawing River) ............ 6-26

Table 6.3.46 Summary of the Adaptation Measure for Each Scenario (Porong River) ............ 6-26

Table 6.3.47 Each Target Group for Demand Forecast in 2050 ................................................ 6-33

Table 6.3.48 Proposed Dams in the Brantas River Basin in POLA 2010 ................................. 6-34

Table 6.3.49 List of the Proposed Dams in the Past and Current Water Resources Plans ......... 6-36

Table 6.3.50 Present Status of the Proposed Dam in the Brantas River Basin as of December 2016 ..................................................................................................... 6-37

Table 6.3.51 Result of Site Inspections for the Major Proposed Dams ..................................... 6-38

Table 6.3.52 Priority of the Proposed Dams in the Brantas River Basin .................................. 6-39

Table 6.3.53 Type and Basic Dimension of Proposed Dams .................................................... 6-40

Table 6.3.54 Reservoir Condition of Both Dams ...................................................................... 6-41

Table 6.3.55 Dam Heightening Case ......................................................................................... 6-41

Table 6.3.56 Additional Case of Dam Heightening .................................................................. 6-41

Table 6.3.57 Annual Dredging Volume of Each Dam Reservoir .............................................. 6-42

Table 6.3.58 Annual Sediment Inflow under Present and Future Climate Conditions ............. 6-42

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Table 6.3.59 Required Number of Dredger against Climate Change Impact ............................ 6-44

Table 6.3.60 Required Volume of Spoil Bank ........................................................................... 6-44

Table 6.3.61 Process for Restoration in Groundwater Resource ............................................... 6-47

Table 6.3.62 Ratios of Future Groundwater Recharge to Current Groundwater Recharge ....... 6-48

Table 6.3.63 Actual Measures Considered for the Brantas River Basin ................................... 6-49

Table 6.3.64 Proposed Comprehensive Basin-wide Sediment Management Plan .................... 6-50

Table 6.3.65 Ratios of the Sediment Increase ........................................................................... 6-50

Table 6.3.66 Watershed Conservation against Rainstorms and Floods ..................................... 6-52

Table 6.3.67 Watershed Conservation against Draughts ........................................................... 6-53

Table 6.4.1 Criteria on Environmental Study .......................................................................... 6-55

Table 6.4.2 Summary of SEA in PP No. 46/2016.................................................................... 6-56

Table 6.4.3 Comparison of With and Without Adaptation Measures ...................................... 6-59

Table 6.4.4 Outline of Alternatives ......................................................................................... 6-60

Table 6.4.5 Summary of Alternatives on Structural Measures ................................................ 6-61

Table 6.4.6 Results of Alternative Examinations/ Scoping ..................................................... 6-61

Table 6.4.7 Examination Results for Selecting Dam ............................................................... 6-66

Table 6.4.8 Selected Structural Measures................................................................................ 6-66

Table 6.4.9 Summary of Impact Evaluation for the Selected Structural Measures ................. 6-67

Table 6.4.10 Environmental Requirements for Constructing Selected Seven Dams ................ 6-68

Table 6.4.11 Environmental Requirements for Rehabilitating Canal and Pipelines and Changing Water Sources ...................................................................................... 6-68

Table 6.4.12 Environmental Requirements for Dike Construction ........................................... 6-68

Table 6.4.13 Summary of Provisional Mitigation Measures to Possible Environmental Impact by Applying Selected Adaptation Measures ............................................. 6-69

Table 6.4.14 Summary of Stakeholder Meeting ........................................................................ 6-71

Table 6.5.1 Major Direct and Indirect Damage ....................................................................... 6-72

Table 6.5.2 Estimation Formula for Major Direct and Indirect Damage ................................ 6-72

Table 6.5.3 Estimation Method of Expected Average Annual Damage Reduction ................. 6-73

Table 6.5.4 Structural Measures for Floods............................................................................. 6-74

Table 6.5.5 Direct Cost of Dike Heightening for the Porong River ........................................ 6-75

Table 6.5.6 Direct Cost of the Widas River ............................................................................. 6-75

Table 6.5.7 Direct Cost of the Ngotok River ........................................................................... 6-75

Table 6.5.8 Direct Cost of the Sadar River .............................................................................. 6-75

Table 6.5.9 Direct Cost of the Tawing River ........................................................................... 6-76

Table 6.5.10 Project Cost of the Porong River .......................................................................... 6-76

Table 6.5.11 Project Cost of the Widas River ........................................................................... 6-76

Table 6.5.12 Project Cost of the Ngotok River ......................................................................... 6-76

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Table 6.5.13 Project Cost of the Sadar River ............................................................................ 6-77

Table 6.5.14 Project Cost of the Tawing River ......................................................................... 6-77

Table 6.5.15 Summary of Economic Evaluation (Rainstorms and Floods) .............................. 6-78

Table 6.5.16 Cost of Repairing Pipe for Non-Revenue Water .................................................. 6-79

Table 6.5.17 Cost of Recycling Plant Construction .................................................................. 6-79

Table 6.5.18 Summary of Additional Dams for Each Scenario ................................................ 6-80

Table 6.5.19 Unit Cost of Direct Construction Cost (Rockfill Dam) ........................................ 6-81

Table 6.5.20 Unit Cost of Direct Construction Cost (Earthfill Dam) ........................................ 6-81

Table 6.5.21 Unit Cost of Direct Construction Cost (Embankment) ........................................ 6-83

Table 6.5.22 Unit Cost of Direct Construction Cost (Spillway) ................................................ 6-83

Table 6.5.23 Unit Cost of Direct Construction Cost (Spillway Gate) ....................................... 6-83

Table 6.5.24 Unit Cost of Direct Construction Cost (Gate at Connecting Channel) ................. 6-83

Table 6.5.25 Unit Cost of Construction Cost (Tertiary Canal) .................................................. 6-83

Table 6.5.26 Unit Cost of Recycling Plant Construction .......................................................... 6-84

Table 6.5.27 Construction Cost of New Dams .......................................................................... 6-85

Table 6.5.28 Summary of Total Cost to Each Scenario ............................................................. 6-85

Table 6.5.29 Project Cost of Heightening Dam Body of Sutami Dam ...................................... 6-86

Table 6.5.30 Construction Cost of Restoration of Irrigation Canal ........................................... 6-87

Table 6.5.31 Summary of Economic Evaluation (Drought) ...................................................... 6-87

Table 6.5.32 Procedures for Adaptation Measures in the Brantas River Basin ......................... 6-90

Table 6.5.33 Basic Specifications for Drilling Borehole ........................................................... 6-91

Table 6.5.34 Unit Prices and Total Cost for Well Construction Works ..................................... 6-91

Table 6.5.35 Approximate Well Construction Costs for Initially Supposed Additional Groundwater Demand .......................................................................................... 6-92

Table 6.5.36 Approximate Well Construction Cost When Allocating Groundwater Demand Exceeding Groundwater Recharge in Blitar City to Blitar Regency ..... 6-92

Table 6.5.37 Watershed Conservation against Rainstorms and Floods ..................................... 6-95

Table 6.5.38 Watershed Conservation against Drought ............................................................ 6-96

Table 6.6.1 Climate Change Measures to Five Pillars............................................................. 6-97

Table 6.6.2 Structural Measures against Rainstorms and Floods (Medium Scenario) .......... 6-101

Table 6.6.3 Non-Structural Measures against Rainstorms and Floods .................................. 6-101

Table 6.6.4 Non-Structural Measures against Sedimentation for Sabo Management ........... 6-102

Table 6.6.5 Structural Measures against Drought ................................................................. 6-102

Table 6.6.6 Non-structural Measures against Drought .......................................................... 6-103

Table 6.6.7 Review POLA/RENCANA ................................................................................ 6-103

Table 6.6.8 Countermeasures in Review POLA/RENCANA and Proposed Additional Adaptation Measures in 2050 ............................................................................. 6-104

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Table 6.6.9 Proposed Measures and Expected Implementing Agencies ............................... 6-105

Table 6.6.10 Summary of Questions on Organizational and Institutional Concerns ............... 6-106

Table 6.6.11 Findings through Interview Survey .................................................................... 6-107

Table 7.1.1 Topographic Zones of Musi River Basin ................................................................ 7-1

Table 7.1.2 Catchment Areas and River Lengths of Musi River and Main Tributaries ............ 7-4

Table 7.1.3 Total Groundwater Potential for Each Groundwater Basin .................................... 7-6

Table 7.1.4 Summary of Natural and Living Environment of Musi River Basin .................... 7-12

Table 7.2.1 List of Regencies and Cities in Musi River Basin ................................................ 7-13

Table 7.2.2 Current Total Population and Population Growth Rate in Musi River Basin ....... 7-14

Table 7.2.3 Gross Regional Domestic Product by Sector of South Sumatra Province ........... 7-15

Table 7.2.4 Major Land Use Category Area by City/ Regency in South Sumatra for 2015 ...................................................................................................................... 7-16

Table 7.2.5 Breakdown of Total Forest Area in South Sumatra for 2015 ............................... 7-17

Table 7.2.6 Planted Area and Production of Major Estate Crops in South Sumatra for 2015 ...................................................................................................................... 7-17

Table 7.2.7 Wetland Paddy Area and Production by Regency/ City in South Sumatra for 2015 ...................................................................................................................... 7-18

Table 7.2.8 Features of Rice Cultivation Area ........................................................................ 7-19

Table 7.3.1 Six Duties and Three Functions of TKPSDA ....................................................... 7-21

Table 7.3.2 Inventory of Collected Rainfall Data ................................................................... 7-22

Table 7.3.3 Inventory of Collected Water Level Data ............................................................. 7-24

Table 7.3.4 Inventory of Collected Water Level Data ............................................................. 7-25

Table 7.3.5 Runoff Ratio of Selected Discharge Stations ....................................................... 7-26

Table 7.3.6 Narrowly Acceptable Discharge Data .................................................................. 7-27

Table 7.3.7 Major Headworks, Dam and Hydropower Plant in Musi River Basin ................. 7-27

Table 7.3.8 Number and Area of Registered Irrigation and Swamp Drainage Scheme .......... 7-33

Table 7.3.9 List of Registered Irrigation and Swamp Drainage Schemes under BBWS-S8 ............................................................................................................. 7-33

Table 7.3.10 Monthly Diversion Record of Perjaya Barrage .................................................... 7-34

Table 7.3.11 Current Water Demand in Musi River Basin (As of 2010) .................................. 7-34

Table 7.3.12 Outline of Urban Flood Control System Improvement in Selected Cities (Palembang) .......................................................................................................... 7-37

Table 7.4.1 Summary of Efforts for Water Resources Management Proposed in RENCANA ........................................................................................................... 7-47

Table 7.4.2 Proposed Plan of Construction of Dam in POLA/RENCANA in Musi River Basin ..................................................................................................................... 7-49

Table 7.4.3 List of Proposed Dams in Musi River Basin ........................................................ 7-51

Table 7.4.4 Proposed Plan for Irrigation Development in South Sumatra .............................. 7-52

- xvi -

Table 8.1.1 Summary of Cross Section Survey ......................................................................... 8-1

Table 8.2.1 Information on Observation Wells in Musi River Basin ........................................ 8-3

Table 8.3.1 Site Information of New and Rehabilitated Water Level Stations .......................... 8-5

Table 8.4.1 Survey Items and Methods ..................................................................................... 8-9

Table 8.4.2 Focal Points of Survey Results ............................................................................. 8-10

Table 9.2.1 List of Available Free DEM Data ........................................................................... 9-2

Table 9.2.2 Predicted Future Irrigation Area in South Sumatra for 2050 .................................. 9-4

Table 9.2.3 Predicted Future Permanent Tree Crop Planting Area in South Sumatra for 2050 ........................................................................................................................ 9-4

Table 9.2.4 Predicted Future Forest Area in South Sumatra for 2050 ....................................... 9-5

Table 9.2.5 Major Land Use Category Area by City/ Regency in South Sumatra for 2050 ........................................................................................................................ 9-6

Table 9.3.1 Example of Average Unit Irrigation Water Demand by GCM for Each Case ........ 9-9

Table 9.3.2 Example of Irrigation Water Demand Calculation by GCM for Musi Rawas Regency .................................................................................................................. 9-9

Table 9.3.3 Basic Condition for Demand Forecast in 2015 .................................................... 9-11

Table 9.3.4 Summary for Water Demand Projection of Musi River Basin until 2050 ............ 9-13

Table 9.3.5 Summary for Water Demand Projection of Banyuasin River Basin until 2050 ...................................................................................................................... 9-14

Table 9.3.6 Summary for Water Demand Projection of Sugihan River Basin until 2050 ....... 9-14

Table 9.3.7 Computational Conditions of Water Balance Analysis ......................................... 9-15

Table 9.3.8 First Selection of 9 GCMs .................................................................................... 9-16

Table 9.3.9 Indices for Selecting 3 GCMs .............................................................................. 9-16

Table 9.3.10 Study Cases for Water Balance Analysis .............................................................. 9-16

Table 9.3.11 Result of Water Balance Analysis ......................................................................... 9-17

Table 9.3.12 Selecting 3 Representative GCMs by Deficit ..................................................... 9-17

Table 9.3.13 Result of Selecting Representative 3 GCMs ...................................................... 9-18

Table 9.3.14 Total Deficits of Selected Representative 3 GCMs ............................................ 9-18

Table 9.3.15 Projection of Tidal Swamp Irrigation Area........................................................... 9-19

Table 9.3.16 Example of On-farm Level Supplement Water Requirement in Tidal Swamp Area ...................................................................................................................... 9-20

Table 9.3.17 Comparison between Runoff Discharge and Water Demands .............................. 9-21

Table 9.4.1 Basic Conditions of Flood Inundation Model ...................................................... 9-22

Table 9.4.2 Sea Level Rise by Previous Study Reports .......................................................... 9-26

Table 9.4.3 Enlargement Ratio of 5-month Rainfall (1993/1994 Rainfall Type) .................... 9-27

Table 9.4.4 Basin Mean 5-month Rainfall by Return Period and Climate Scenario ............... 9-27

Table 9.4.5 Average Number of Days of Heavy Rainfall per Year before and after Climate Change .................................................................................................... 9-28

- xvii -

Table 9.5.1 Results of Flood Inundation Analysis ................................................................... 9-31

Table 9.6.1 EC Value and Type of Water ................................................................................. 9-34

Table 9.6.2 Increase Ratios of Sediment Discharge and Rainfall Amount .............................. 9-36

Table 9.7.1 Summary of Risk and Resilience of Water Resources Management .................... 9-37

Table 10.3.1 Current and Proposed Operation of Ranau Lake .................................................. 10-3

Table 10.3.2 Conditions of Water Balance Analysis for Evaluation of Proposed RRF Operation .............................................................................................................. 10-4

Table 10.3.3 Results of Water Balance Simulation by RRF Operation ..................................... 10-5

Table 10.3.4 Population of Districts Surrounding Ranau Lake ................................................. 10-6

Table 10.3.5 Figures Related to Water Level of Ranau Lake .................................................... 10-7

Table 10.4.1 Conceivable Adaptation Measures against Rainstorms and Floods ................... 10-10

Table 10.4.2 Proposed and Potential Dam Sites in Musi River Basin .................................... 10-12

Table 10.4.3 Three Categories of Swamp Areas by Palembang City ...................................... 10-17

Table 10.4.4 Conceivable Adaptation Measures against Drought ........................................... 10-24

Table 10.4.5 Water Supply Targets in 2050 ............................................................................. 10-24

Table 10.4.6 Planned/Proposed Dam Reservoirs .................................................................... 10-25

Table 10.4.7 Conditions of Water Balance Analysis ............................................................... 10-25

Table 10.4.8 Results of Water Balance Simulation for Komering River Basin ...................... 10-27

Table 10.4.9 Results of Water Balance Simulation for Lematang River Basin ....................... 10-29

Table 10.4.10 Results of Water Balance Simulation for Kelingi River Basin ........................... 10-31

Table 10.4.11 Results of Water Balance Simulation for Lakitan River Basin .......................... 10-31

Table 10.4.12 Total Water Use and Groundwater Use .............................................................. 10-33

Table 10.4.13 Present Groundwater Potential by Groundwater Basin ...................................... 10-35

Table 10.4.14 Ratio of Present Groundwater Potential to Present Effective Rainfall ............... 10-35

Table 10.4.15 Groundwater Potential in Future and Change from Present ............................... 10-36

Table 10.4.16 Effectiveness of NRW Reduction Activities ....................................................... 10-37

Table 10.4.17 Future Cropping Intensity in Surface Water Irrigation Scheme Area ................. 10-41

Table 10.4.18 Comparison of Irrigation Water Demand Calculation ........................................ 10-42

Table 10.4.19 Adjusted Surface Irrigation Areas under Present and Future Conditions ........... 10-43

Table 10.4.20 Area-wise Average of Unit Irrigation Water Requirement with Adaptation Measures ........................................................................................................... 10-44

Table 10.4.21 Area-wise 4verage of Irrigation Water Diversion Demand with Adaptation Measures ............................................................................................................. 10-45

Table 10.4.22 Sufficiency Rate of Effective Rainfall against Consumptive Use of Rainfed Paddy .................................................................................................................. 10-45

Table 10.4.23 Future Wetland Paddy Production by Regency/ City in South Sumatra ............ 10-46

Table 10.4.24 Expected Drought Areas and Protected Forest Area .......................................... 10-47

- xviii -

Table 10.4.25 Analysis Conditions ........................................................................................... 10-54

Table 10.4.26 Average Groundwater Depth in 15 Years and Change from the Present ........... 10-55

Table 10.4.27 Condition of Hydrological Observation Stations of BBWS-S8 as of 2018 ........ 10-56

Table 10.4.28 Effort Activities on Aspect of Water Resources Management Information in RENCANA 2017 ................................................................................................ 10-57

Table 10.5.1 Examination of Alternatives on Structural Measures of Adaptation .................. 10-59

Table 10.5.2 Major Structural Measures for Adaptation ......................................................... 10-59

Table 10.5.3 Summary of Scoping Results ............................................................................. 10-60

Table 10.5.4 Summary of Stakeholder Meeting ...................................................................... 10-62

Table 10.6.1 Proposed Measures and Actions until 2050 ........................................................ 10-63

Table 10.6.2 Summary of Differences between Proposed Actions and POLA and RENCANA ......................................................................................................... 10-67

Table 10.6.3 Summary of Project Cost Estimation for Water Resources Development ......... 10-68

Table 10.6.4 Tentative Implementation schedule .................................................................... 10-69

Table 10.6.5 Summary of Questions on Organizational and Institutional Concerns ............... 10-72

Table 10.6.6 List of Interviewees for the Musi River Basin ................................................... 10-72

Table 10.6.7 Summary of Economic Evaluation ..................................................................... 10-75

Table 11.1.1 Summary of Workshops Held in the Project ........................................................ 11-1

Table 11.2.1 Program of Training on Assessment of Climate Change Impacts (Tentative) ...... 11-2

Table 11.2.2 Outline of JICA First and Second Country-focused Trainings in Japan for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts .............................................................. 11-2

Table 11.2.3 Program of Training on Water Resources Management Plan (Tentative) ............ 11-3

Table 11.2.4 Outline of JICA Third and Fourth Country-focused Trainings in Japan for Water Resources Management Plan ..................................................................... 11-4

Table 11.3.1 Outlines of First to Fourth Seminars in Indonesia ................................................ 11-6

Table 12.1.1 Recommendations and Items subject to Attention .............................................. 12-1

Table 12.2.1 Number and Design Area of Surface Water Irrigation Schemes .......................... 12-3

Table 12.2.2 Substances and Actors of Institutional Strengthening and Empowerment of People ................................................................................................................... 12-4

List of Figures

Page

Figure 1.5.1 Schedule of the Project (Component-2) ................................................................. 1-3

Figure 3.1.1 Recorded Period of Daily Rainfall and Daily Water Level .................................... 3-3

Figure 3.1.2 Location Map of Rainfall Gauging Stations and Water Level Gauging Stations Operated by PJT-I ..................................................................................... 3-4

- xix -

Figure 3.1.3 Location Map of Rainfall Gauging Stations and Water Level Gauging Stations Operated by DINAS and BBWS Brantas ................................................. 3-4

Figure 3.1.4 Geological Map of the Brantas River Basin ......................................................... 3-6

Figure 3.1.5 Hydrogeological Map of the Brantas River Basin .................................................. 3-7

Figure 3.1.6 River Profile ........................................................................................................... 3-7

Figure 3.1.7 Design Discharge in the Brantas River ................................................................... 3-8

Figure 3.2.1 Estimated Wastewater Volume until 2050 ............................................................ 3-12

Figure 3.3.1 Zoning of Development Region in the Brantas River Basin ................................ 3-13

Figure 3.3.2 Protection and Utilization Zones in the Brantas River Basin ............................... 3-14

Figure 3.3.3 Organization Chart of BBWS Brantas (2015) ...................................................... 3-19

Figure 3.3.4 Organization Chart in PJT-I (2016) ...................................................................... 3-20

Figure 4.1.1 Sample of the River Cross Sections ....................................................................... 4-1

Figure 5.3.1 Projected Population for Demand Forecast ............................................................ 5-4

Figure 5.3.2 Water Supply Demand Forecast until 2050 ............................................................ 5-5

Figure 5.3.3 Sole Cropping Calendar for the Brantas River Basin ............................................. 5-6

Figure 5.3.4 Relationship between Water Supply and Demand in the Brantas River Basin ..... 5-14

Figure 5.3.5 Definition of Groundwater Potential in the Project .............................................. 5-15

Figure 5.3.6 Distribution of Total Present and Future Groundwater Demand in Height .......... 5-17

Figure 5.3.7 Distribution of Evaluated Present Remaining Groundwater Potential ................. 5-18

Figure 5.3.8 Distribution of Evaluated Remaining Groundwater Potential (2030) .................. 5-19

Figure 5.3.9 Distribution of Evaluated Groundwater Potential (2050) (Medium Scenario) ..... 5-22

Figure 5.3.10 Flow Duration Curves at Sutami Dam, Mrican Barrage, New Lengkong Dam and Widas River for Present and Three Scenarios ....................................... 5-25

Figure 5.3.11 Sequence of Discharge Data at Sutami Dam under Future Condition ................. 5-27

Figure 5.3.12 Sequence of Discharge Data at Mrican Barrage under Future Condition ............ 5-28

Figure 5.3.13 Sequence of Discharge Data at New Lengkong Dam under Future Condition .............................................................................................................. 5-29

Figure 5.3.14 Sequence of Discharge Data of the Widas River at Confluence of the Brantas River under Future Condition ................................................................. 5-30

Figure 5.3.15 Analysis Flow of the Water Balance Analysis of the Brantas River Basin .......... 5-31

Figure 5.3.16 Water Balance Simulation Model of the Brantas River Basin.............................. 5-31

Figure 5.3.17 Basin Diagram in the Brantas River Basin for Water Balance (1/2) .................... 5-32

Figure 5.3.18 Basin Diagram in the Brantas River Basin for Water Balance (2/2) .................... 5-33

Figure 5.3.19 Location Map of Proposed Dams and Long Storage Structures in the Brantas River Basin .............................................................................................. 5-36

Figure 5.3.20 Estimation of Future Dam Reservoir Sediment Inflow ........................................ 5-38

Figure 5.3.21 Balance Between Total Water Demand and River Stream Flow (Scenario 1) ...... 5-44

Figure 5.3.22 Balance Between Total Water Demand and River Stream Flow (Scenario 4) ...... 5-45

- xx -

Figure 5.3.23 Reservoir Operation of Sutami Dam and Selorejo Dam for Scenario 1 ............... 5-46

Figure 5.3.24 Reservoir Operation of Sutami & Lahor Dam and Selorejo Dam for Scenario 4 ............................................................................................................. 5-46

Figure 5.3.25 Comparison of Reservoir Water Level for Scenario 1 and Scenario 4 ................. 5-46

Figure 5.3.26 Reservoir Operation of Sutami & Lahor Reservoir for Scenario 1 ...................... 5-47

Figure 5.3.27 Reservoir Operation of Sutami & Lahor Reservoir for Scenario 4 ...................... 5-48

Figure 5.4.1 Inundation Area in the Brantas River Basin ......................................................... 5-52

Figure 5.4.2 Relationship between Basin Mean Rainfall and Peak Discharge ......................... 5-53

Figure 5.4.3 River Profile and Water Surface under 50-year Probable Flood .......................... 5-54

Figure 5.4.4 Location of Overtop Sections under 50-year Probable Flood .............................. 5-55

Figure 5.4.5 Calibration for the Porong River .......................................................................... 5-57

Figure 5.4.6 Maximum Inundation Depth and Area in the Present Climate (Porong River) .................................................................................................................... 5-57

Figure 5.4.7 Model Area of Inundation Analysis in the Widas River Basin ............................. 5-58

Figure 5.4.8 Hydrograph of Upper End Boundary Condition (Upper Widas River) ................ 5-59

Figure 5.4.9 Maximum Inundation Depth and Area in the Widas River Basin (30-year probable flood) ..................................................................................................... 5-61

Figure 5.4.10 Model of Inundation Analysis in the Sadar River Basin ...................................... 5-61

Figure 5.4.11 Hydrograph of Each Upper End Boundary Condition (Gembolo River ) ............ 5-62

Figure 5.4.12 Maximum Inundation Depth and Area in the Sadar River Basin (30-year Probable Flood) .................................................................................................... 5-65

Figure 5.4.13 Model of Inundation Analysis in the Ngotok River Basin ................................... 5-65

Figure 5.4.14 Hydrograph of Each Upper End Boundary Condition (Blangkal River) ............. 5-66

Figure 5.4.15 Maximum Inundation Depth and Area in the Ngotok River Basin ...................... 5-68

Figure 5.4.16 Model of Inundation Analysis in the Tawing River Basin ................................... 5-69

Figure 5.4.17 Modified Hydrograph of Each Upper End Boundary Condition (Tawing River) .................................................................................................................... 5-70

Figure 5.4.18 Maximum Inundation Depth and Area in the Tawing River Basin ...................... 5-72

Figure 5.4.19 Flood Routing of Sutami Dam for Design Flood with Peak Discharge of 3,000 m3/s ............................................................................................................. 5-73

Figure 5.4.20 Flood Hydrographs in Future Climate Change Scenario in 2050 ......................... 5-74

Figure 5.4.21 Result of Flood Control Operation of Sutami Dam .............................................. 5-75

Figure 5.5.1 Concept of Risk and Resilience for Water Resources Management (Hazard: Flood and Drought) .............................................................................................. 5-79

Figure 5.5.2 Conceptual Illustration of Control Water Level Method ...................................... 5-91

Figure 5.5.3 Result of Flood Routine in the Dry Season (Case 3) ............................................ 5-92

Figure 5.5.4 Conceptual Illustration of Control Water Level to Flood Management ............... 5-93

Figure 5.5.5 Proposed Reservoir Operation of Sutami Dam in 2050 ....................................... 5-94

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Figure 6.1.1 Approaches to Target Safety Level Setting in DRR Strategy ................................. 6-2

Figure 6.1.2 Assessment Tool for Strategic “Target Setting” in MSA ........................................ 6-2

Figure 6.1.3 Criteria for Protection Level ................................................................................... 6-4

Figure 6.3.1 Conceptual Plan for Proposed Dike Alignment of the Widas River ....................... 6-8

Figure 6.3.2 Result of the Multiple Scenario Approach (Widas River Basin) .......................... 6-12

Figure 6.3.3 Conceptual Plan for Proposed Flood Dike Alignment of the Ngotok River ........ 6-14

Figure 6.3.4 Result of the Multiple Scenario Approach (Ngotok River Basin) ........................ 6-17

Figure 6.3.5 Conceptual Plan for the Proposed Flood Dike Alignment of the Sadar River ..... 6-18

Figure 6.3.6 Result of the Multiple Scenario Approach (Sadar River Basin) ........................... 6-21

Figure 6.3.7 Conceptual Plan for the Proposed Flood Dike Alignment of the Tawing River ..................................................................................................................... 6-23

Figure 6.3.8 Result of the Multiple Scenario Approach (Tawing River Basin) ........................ 6-25

Figure 6.3.9 Flood Information Flow Chart among Related Agencies ..................................... 6-28

Figure 6.3.10 Indonesia C-Band Doppler Weather Radar Network (as of April 2013) .............. 6-29

Figure 6.3.11 Alert Water Level in the Brantas River Basin ...................................................... 6-29

Figure 6.3.12 Setting Water Levels for Floods ........................................................................... 6-30

Figure 6.3.13 Community Based Early Warning System in the Bengawan Solo ....................... 6-31

Figure 6.3.14 NRW until 2050 for the Demand Forecast in 2050 .............................................. 6-34

Figure 6.3.15 Present Conditions surrounding Sutami Dam Reservoir ...................................... 6-42

Figure 6.3.16 Layout of Sutami Dam Heightening ..................................................................... 6-43

Figure 6.3.17 Today’s Reservoir Water Level of Each Reservoir operated by PJT-I.................. 6-45

Figure 6.3.18 Conceptual Diagram of Water Cycle and its Regulatory Factors ......................... 6-46

Figure 6.3.19 Forestland in East Java Province .......................................................................... 6-52

Figure 6.4.1 SEA Study Flow for the Project ........................................................................... 6-58

Figure 6.5.1 Relation between Dam Body Volume and Direct Cost (Rockfill Dam) ............... 6-82

Figure 6.5.2 Relation between Dam Body Volume and Direct Cos (Earthfill Dam) ................ 6-82

Figure 7.1.1 Geological Map ...................................................................................................... 7-2

Figure 7.1.2 Monthly Rainfall (1985-2013）and Monthly Temperature (2012) at Kenten

Station, Palembang. ................................................................................................ 7-2

Figure 7.1.3 Musi, Banyuasin and Sugihan River Basins ........................................................... 7-3

Figure 7.1.4 Distribution of Annual Mean Discharges in Musi River System ........................... 7-4

Figure 7.1.5 Groundwater Potential for Each Groundwater Basin ............................................. 7-5

Figure 7.1.6 Geological Map around Komering River ............................................................. 7-10

Figure 7.1.7 Condition of Water Color in Musi River Basin .................................................... 7-11

Figure 7.2.1 Present Land Use Map in Musi River Basin ........................................................ 7-16

Figure 7.3.1 Organization Chart of BBWS Sumatra VIII ......................................................... 7-20

Figure 7.3.2 Rainfall Observation Stations ............................................................................... 7-24

- xxii -

Figure 7.3.3 Water Level Observation Stations ........................................................................ 7-25

Figure 7.3.4 Location of Tide Observation Stations ................................................................. 7-25

Figure 7.3.5 Example of Abnormal Water Level Data (No.2 S. Lematang S. Rotan Station) ................................................................................................................. 7-26

Figure 7.3.6 Location Map of Major Headworks, Dam and Hydropower Plant in Musi River Basin ........................................................................................................... 7-28

Figure 7.3.7 Photograph and Mechanism of River Bank Erosion in Sekayu ........................... 7-29

Figure 7.3.8 Schematic Image of RAJASIAR Canals .............................................................. 7-30

Figure 7.3.9 Regulator in Randu Canal in Komering River ..................................................... 7-31

Figure 7.3.10 Regulator in Anyar and Segonang Canals in Komering River ............................. 7-31

Figure 7.3.11 Location and Alignment of PLTA Musi ............................................................... 7-35

Figure 7.3.12 Layout of PLTA Musi ........................................................................................... 7-35

Figure 7.3.13 Flood Prone Area Map.......................................................................................... 7-36

Figure 7.3.14 Duration of Inundation during 2014 Flood ........................................................... 7-37

Figure 7.3.15 Spreading Haze in 2015 Forest Fire ..................................................................... 7-40

Figure 7.3.16 Locations of Hotspots in Indonesia in 2015 ......................................................... 7-40

Figure 7.4.1 Spatial Pattern Map of South Sumatra Province .................................................. 7-44

Figure 7.4.2 Musi-Banyuasin-Sugihan-Lemau (MBSL) River Basin ...................................... 7-45

Figure 7.4.3 Location Map of Proposed Dams in Musi River Basin ........................................ 7-50

Figure 8.1.1 Location of Cross Section Survey .......................................................................... 8-2

Figure 8.2.1 Location of Newly Constructed Observation Wells ............................................... 8-3

Figure 8.2.2 Groundwater Level Data in Observation Wells ...................................................... 8-4

Figure 8.3.1 Observed Water Levels at Mambang Station ......................................................... 8-5

Figure 8.3.2 Observed Water Level at Bayunglencir Station ...................................................... 8-6

Figure 8.3.3 Distribution of Velocity .......................................................................................... 8-6

Figure 8.3.4 Surveyed Cross Section and Discharge Curve ....................................................... 8-7

Figure 8.4.1 Linkage between Hydrological, Irrigation and Rice Production Models ............... 8-8

Figure 8.4.2 Location of Survey Areas ..................................................................................... 8-10

Figure 9.1.1 Three Climate Change Scenarios ........................................................................... 9-1

Figure 9.2.1 Land Use Condition of MSBL in 2050 ................................................................... 9-5

Figure 9.3.1 Common Cropping Calendar for Surface Water Irrigation Scheme in MSBL Basin ....................................................................................................................... 9-8

Figure 9.3.2 Difference of Water Demand Projection between RENCANA 2017 and JICA Project ......................................................................................................... 9-14

Figure 9.3.3 Basic Concept of Water Balance Modeling .......................................................... 9-15

Figure 9.3.4 Scatter Plot of Comparing Cases 2 & 3 ................................................................ 9-18

Figure 9.3.5 Scatter Plot of Comparing Cases 2 & 4 ................................................................ 9-18

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Figure 9.3.6 Tidal Swamp Irrigation Areas ............................................................................... 9-19

Figure 9.3.7 Runoff Discharge and Demand Hydrograph (High Scenario) .............................. 9-21

Figure 9.4.1 Target Area of Flood Inundation Analysis ............................................................ 9-22

Figure 9.4.2 Conceptual Illustration of Flood inundation Model ............................................. 9-23

Figure 9.4.3 Comparison of Inundation Area ........................................................................... 9-24

Figure 9.4.4 Comparison of Water Level at Boom Baru Tidal Station ..................................... 9-25

Figure 9.4.5 Simulated Inundation Areas without and with Sea Level (2005 Flood) ............... 9-26

Figure 9.4.6 Simulated Inundation Areas (100-year Return Period) ........................................ 9-28

Figure 9.4.7 Frequency of Daily Rainfall over 75mm/day ....................................................... 9-29

Figure 9.5.1 Frequency of Drought Occurrence and Volume of Deficit (Case 4) .................... 9-30

Figure 9.6.1 Location of Salinity-affected Water Intake and Treatment Plants, and EC Observation Points ............................................................................................... 9-33

Figure 9.6.2 Results of EC Observation in December 2013 ..................................................... 9-34

Figure 10.3.1 Location Map and Site Photograph of River Bank Erosion at Sekayu ................. 10-2

Figure 10.3.2 Location of Ranau Regulating Facility and Hydropower Plant ............................ 10-4

Figure 10.3.3 Water Levels and Release Discharge Records of RRF ......................................... 10-4

Figure 10.3.4 Simulated Lake Water Level and Released Discharge from RRF ........................ 10-5

Figure 10.3.5 Simulated Water Deficit at Perjaya Headwork ..................................................... 10-6

Figure 10.4.1 Water Level Rise Caused by Confinement in the River Channel (High Scenario, 100-year Return Period) ..................................................................... 10-11

Figure 10.4.2 Flood Inundation Area and Settlement Area....................................................... 10-11

Figure 10.4.3 Location of Proposed and Potential Dam Sites .................................................. 10-13

Figure 10.4.4 Concept of Measures against Urban Floods ....................................................... 10-15

Figure 10.4.5 Responsibilities of Central, Province and Regencies for Urban Drainage System ................................................................................................................ 10-15

Figure 10.4.6 Swamp Area Map of Palembang City ................................................................ 10-18

Figure 10.4.7 Flood Prone Area Map by BBWS-S8 ................................................................. 10-19

Figure 10.4.8 Flood Area Map by BPDASHL .......................................................................... 10-19

Figure 10.4.9 Forest Cover Loss and Protected Forest (HL) and Nature Reserve Forest (HSA) ................................................................................................................. 10-22

Figure 10.4.10 Location of Planned/Proposed Dam Sites and Major Irrigation Areas ............... 10-26

Figure 10.4.11 Comparison of Water Deficit at Perjaya Headwork ........................................... 10-27

Figure 10.4.12 Operation of Tiga Dihaji and Saka Dam Reservoirs and RRF (Case 3-1-3) ...... 10-28

Figure 10.4.13 Comparison of Water Deficit in Sub-basin LEi .................................................. 10-29

Figure 10.4.14 Operation of Padang Bindu, Tanjung Agung and Panjung Dam Reservoirs ...... 10-30

Figure 10.4.15 Comparison of Water Deficit in Sub-basin KEi (Watervang Headwork) ........... 10-31

Figure 10.4.16 Comparison of Water Deficit in Sub-basin LAi (Lakitan Headwork) ................ 10-32

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Figure 10.4.17 Location of Potential Embung Sites ................................................................... 10-33

Figure 10.4.18 Groundwater Basin in Musi River Basin ............................................................ 10-34

Figure 10.4.19 Optimized Cropping Calendar for Surface Water Irrigation Scheme in MSBL Basin ....................................................................................................... 10-40

Figure 10.4.20 Expected Water-short Areas in Protected Forest and Nature Reserve Forest ..... 10-48

Figure 10.4.21 Screen Image of Monitoring Application for Intake Facility at Musi River (Desa Pengumbuk-1) .......................................................................................... 10-51

Figure 10.4.22 Illegal Groundwater Drainage from Peatland ..................................................... 10-52

Figure 10.4.23 Distribution of Peatland and Overwrapping Jurisdictions .................................. 10-53

Figure 10.4.24 Analysis Area and Virtual Monitoring Wells ..................................................... 10-54

Figure 10.4.25 Example of Abnormal Water Level Data (No.2 S. Lematang S. Rotan Station) ............................................................................................................... 10-57

List of Photos

Page

Photo 6.5.1 Improvement Example with Coagulant ................................................................ 6-93

Photo 6.5.2 Example of Proper Agro-Forestry (Hillside of Mt. Wilis; 23/05/2014) ............... 6-94

Photo 6.5.3 Example of Proper Development (Hillside of Mt. Wilis ; 23/05/2014) ............... 6-94

Photo 7.1.1 Conditions of Land Use .......................................................................................... 7-7

Photo 7.1.2 Sand and Gravel Mining and Their Sources ........................................................... 7-7

Photo 7.1.3 River Bank Erosion ................................................................................................ 7-8

Photo 7.1.4 Turbidity of River Water ........................................................................................ 7-9

Photo 7.3.1 Facilities of PLTA Musi ........................................................................................ 7-35

Photo 8.3.1 Construction and Rehabilitation of Water Level Gauging Stations ........................ 8-5

Photo 8.3.2 Field Work for Discharge Measurement ................................................................. 8-7

Photo 9.5.1 Pillar Houses in Flood Plains ............................................................................... 9-32

Photo 9.6.1 Current Situation of River Erosion (June/2014, July/2018) ................................. 9-35

Photo 10.4.1 Inundation of Palembang during Rainstorm on April 25, 2019............................ 10-9

Photo 10.4.2 Impassable Road Due to Flood Inundation ........................................................ 10-14

Photo 10.4.3 Current Situation of Rainwater Use ................................................................... 10-38

Photo 10.4.4 Gates on Secondary and Tertiary Canals ............................................................ 10-49

Photo 10.4.5 Discharge Measurement by ADCP ..................................................................... 10-56

Part 1

GENERAL

The Project for Assessing and Integrating Climate Change Impacts into the Water Resources Management Plans for Brantas and Musi River Basins Final Report (Water Resources Management Plan) Main Report


CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Project

One of the impacts caused by climate change in Indonesia is considered to be the change in

the water cycle. While the rainfall tends to increase in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Papua

particularly in the rainy season, it tends to decrease in the other regions. In the dry season,

the rainfall is projected to decrease in most of Java and South Sumatra. In addition, there

are growing concerns about an increase of extreme events such as droughts and floods due to

the increasing frequency of El Nino. As well as promoting development in consideration of

these impacts, it is required to incorporate mitigation and adaptation strategies against

climate change into the development plans at both national and regional levels in order to

achieve the national reduction goal of 26% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 as compared

with the case of not taking measures (so called, “BAU”). However, no specific

methodology in the respective sectors has been organized.

In the water resources management sector, each country has been seeking concrete ways to

reflect climate change impacts in planning by trial and error since no typical method has

been established throughout the world yet. Therefore, it is becoming necessary to discuss

the planning theory and directionality of water resources management in consideration of

climate change in Indonesia as well.

Currently in Indonesia, in order to properly manage water resources, POLA which indicates

the direction of river basin management and RENCANA which is a specific action plan for

basin management based on POLA have been or are being developed. It is thus required to

formulate a water resources management plan corresponding to the impacts of future climate

change and its uncertainty. In addition to measures against floods and droughts, peat land

management for (i) decrease in greenhouse gas emissions and (ii) increase in crop production

is particularly viewed as a meaningful work in the national action plan and is necessary for

policy reasons. The measures for peat land management should be taken on the basis of

appropriate water resources management by dealing with the said issues as key policies in

the Ministry of Public Works and Housing (hereinafter referred to as “MPWH”).

As to the above-mentioned issues, projects for assessment and countermeasures of climate

change impacts have been implemented under the assistance of various donors in Indonesia.

However, there are still some issues in the past efforts, such as:

(1) Meteorological and hydrological characteristics at the river basin level are not reflected

in climate change impacts because those impacts are forecasted based on the assessments

with a larger scale or a certain assumption.

(2) Climate change impacts are not able to be reflected in water resources management

plans (particularly, RENCANA) because recommendations are not quantitative, nor specific.

And

(3) Discussions on planning theory such as how to reflect climate change impacts in the

formulation of water resources management plans have not been made within the

1-1



Government of Indonesia (GOI), and an applicable method to other river basins by the

Indonesian side itself has not been developed yet.

Under such circumstances, “The Project for Assessing and Integrating Climate Change

Impacts into the Water Resources Management Plans for Brantas and Musi River Basins

(hereinafter referred to as “the Project”)” will (i) assess the climate change impacts for both

river basins in 2050 in terms of risk/vulnerability and resilience of water resources, (ii)

formulate proposals for reflecting climate change impacts in water resources management

plans of the river basins, and (iii) prepare guidelines to be applicable to water resources

management plans in other river basins in Indonesia, taking climate change issues into

account.

The Project consists of two components, which are “Component-1: Climate Change Impact

Assessment and Runoff Analysis” and “Component-2: Water Resources Management Plan”.

This report deals with Component-2.

1.2 Goal and Expected Outputs of the Project

(1) Goal of the Project

a) Climate change impacts shall be reflected in water resources management plans in

the Brantas and Musi River basins;

b) The proposed guidelines shall be approved and applied to other river basins in

Indonesia; and

c) The capacity of river basin management in Indonesia is developed and

strengthened, taking climate change impacts into account.

(2) Expected Outputs of the Project

i) Future rainfalls and runoffs simulated under projected climate change in the

Brantas and Musi River basins,

ii) Assessment of water resources management risk/vulnerability and resilience under


basins,

iii) Proposals for reflecting climate change impacts in water resources management

plans (POLA and RENCANA) of the river basins,

iv) Proposed guidelines to be applicable to water resources management plans in other

river basins in Indonesia, taking climate change issues into account, and

v) Capacity enhancement of MPWH to formulate water resources management plans

with strategies for climate change impacts.

Out of these outputs, the JICA Project Team for Component-2 (hereinafter referred to as

“JICA Project Team 2 or Team 2”) conducts the works for the ii) to v) above, and collection

of data and information for the above i).

1.3 Objectives of the Project (Component-2: Water Resources Management Plan)

The objectives of Component-2 are:

(1) Assessment of water resources management risk/vulnerability under climate change

impacts and formulation of proposals for reflecting climate change impacts in water

1-2



resources management plans (POLA and RENCANA) of both river basins by using the

outputs of Component-1,

(2) Preparation of guidelines applicable to other river basins in Indonesia, and

(3) Capacity enhancement for water resources management in consideration of climate

change impacts in Indonesia through the (1) and (2) above.

1.4 Project Area

The project area covers the following two river basins. The location maps of these river

basins are shown in the frontispiece of this report.

• Brantas River basin in Jawa (approximately 12,000 km2)

• Musi River basin in Sumatra (approximately 60,000 km2)

The above “Musi River basin” in the Project includes downstream lowland swamp areas of

the Banyuasin and Sugihan River basins adjacent to the Musi River basin.

1.5 Project Schedule

The period of Component-2 was originally 36 months from June 2013 to May 2016 and was

revised to 79 months from June 2013 to December 2019. The revised schedule is presented

in Figure 1.5.1 below.

Year

Month 5 6 7 8 9-12 1 2 3 4 5-7 8-12 1-3 4-12 1-3 4 5 6 7 8-12 1-3 4-6 7-10 11 12 1 2 3 4WorkPlan

Year 2020

Month 5 6 7 8 9-12 1 2 3 4 5-7 8-12 1-3WorkPlan

2015 2016 2017 2018

2018 2019

Reports PR4 PR5 DFR FR

Reports IC/R PR1 IT/R PR2 PR3

2013 2014


Figure 1.5.1 Schedule of the Project (Component-2)

1.6 Scope of Component-2

Component-2 is divided into two phases; Phase 1 and Phase 2. The scopes of the respective

phases are as follows:

Phase 1:

1) Collection of data and information utilized for Component-1, and

2) Assessment of water resources management risk/vulnerability and resilience under


basins,

Phase 2:

1) Proposal for reflecting climate change impacts in water resources management

plans (POLA and RENCANA) of both river basins, and

1-3



2) Preparation of guidelines to be applicable to water resources management plans in

other river basins in Indonesia, taking climate change issues into account.

Besides, capacity enhancement for formulation of water resources management plans with

strategies for climate change impacts in Indonesia will be conducted in both phases.

1.7 Object Agencies for the Project

The following are the object agencies for the Project:

Implementing agency: Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MPWH)

Related agencies: Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG)

Jasa Tirta I Public Corporation (PJT I)

1.8 Final Report

This Final Report is hereby submitted as the final product of the Project which was

conducted from June 2013 to December 2019.

1-4



CHAPTER 2 MOVEMENT RELEVANT TO WATER RESOURCES IN INDONESIA

2.1 Movement of River Basin Water Resources Management

In recent years, problems of rainy season floods, dry season droughts and quality aggravation

of river water and groundwater are frequent in Indonesia and these problems have made it

important to promote harmonized conservation and use and control of water resources

through appropriate river basin management.

In such a situation, Indonesia has been formulating the following statutory plans to

appropriately realize the water resources management:

(a) Water Resources Management Strategic Plan（POLA）which delineates the direction of

river basin management, and

(b) Water Resources Management Implementation Plan（RENCANA）which is a concrete

plan for implementation of river basin management on the basis of POLA.

(1) National Policy and Institutional Context

Indonesia stipulated 1) role-sharing among central and local governments, 2) fulfillment of

basic human needs, 3) introduction of water right and 4) water resources conservation in Law

on Water Resources No.7/2004 (hereinafter referred to as “the Law No.7/2004”, see “Section

2.3”), pressing forward with decentralization after 1999 and the Structural Adjustment

Program of Water Resources Sector (WATSP) led by the World Bank. According to the

above stipulations, it has been important to execute integrated water resources management

(IWRM) at a river basin level through participation not only of the central and local

governments but also of relevant stakeholders.

In addition, the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2004 - 2009 set forth,

1) realization of sustainable joint water resources management, 2) flood and drought damage

reduction, 3) quality enhancement of coordination and cooperation among relevant agencies,

etc. as the objectives of water resources development.

The laws and ministerial regulations of the Ministry of Public Works (MoPW), currently

called the Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MPWH) laid down in relation to the Law

No.7/2004 are as compiled below.

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Table 2.1.1 Laws and Ministerial Regulations of MoPW Related to Law on Water Resources

No.7/2004 Title Code Contents

Law of the Republic of Indonesia

No.7/2006 Regarding Water Resources/ Elucidation

Achievement of IWRM in Indonesia, duties and responsibilities of central, provincial and regency/municipal governments and village administration

Regulation of Minister of Public Works

No.12/PRT/M/ 2006

Establishment of Balai Besar


No.13/PRT/M/ 2006

Establishment of Balai


No.11A/PRT/M/2006 133 river regions covering whole Indonesia and 69 river areas under jurisdiction of Central Government.

Regulation of the Minster of Public Works

No.544/PRT/M/2005 Organization and work procedures of the River Center

Regulation of the Minster of Public Works PEKERJAAN UMUM

No.26/PRT/M/ 2006

Establishment of Balai Besar


(2) River Basin Organization (RBO)

The above ministerial regulations of No.11A/PRT/M/2006, No.12/PRT/M/2006,

No.13/PRT/M/ 2006 and No.26/PTR/M/2006 decided that 5,590 river basins covering the

whole Indonesian territory be divided into 133 river regions, and 63 river regions of these be

directly managed by MoWP (currently MPWH). The MPWH has established 34 river basin

organizations (RBO: Balai in Bahasa Indonesia, see Table 2.1.2): RBOs shall be engaged in

the development and management of these regions. As for the other river regions, about 50

RBOs to be controlled by respective provincial governments have been gradually organized.

Table 2.1.2 River Basin Organizations for River Basins under Jurisdiction of MPWH

No. Name No. name 1 Sumatera I 18 Brantas 2 Sumatera II 19 Kalimantan I 3 Sumatera III 20 Kalimantan II 4 Sumatera IV 21 Kalimantan III 5 Sumatera V 22 Sulawesi I 6 Sumatera VI 23 Sulawesi II 7 Sumatera VII 24 Sulawesi III 8 Sumatera VIII 25 Sulawesi IV 9 Mesuji-Sekampung 26 Pompenga-Jeneberang 10 Cidanau-Ciujung-Cidurian 27 Maluu 11 Ciliwung-Cisadane 28 North Maluku 12 Citarum 29 Bali Penida 13 Cimanuk-Cisanggarung 30 Nusa Tenggara I 14 Citanduy 31 Nusa Tenggara II 15 Pemali-Juana 32 Papua 16 Bengawan Solo 33 West Papua 17 Serayu-Opak 34 Papua Merauke


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The major tasks of RBO are as enumerated below:

Formulation of POLA and RENCANA for the river basin in charge,

Implementation of water resources management,

Technical recommendations on water resources supply, distribution, use and water right

for the river basin in charge,

Execution of water resources operation and maintenance for the river basin in charge,

Management of hydrological system,

Preparation of water resources data and information,

Support of activities to be conducted by the Water Resources Management

Coordination Team (Tim Koordinasi Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Air: TKPSDA) in their

river basin in charge, and

Promotion of community participation in water resources management.

(3) Public Service Agency (BLU)

There is a framework of Public Service Agency (BADAN LAYANAN UMUM: BLU) set up

as the way of fee collection through water resources management by RBOs in the legal

system in Indonesia. The laws and regulations concerning BLU are compiled in Table 2.1.3.

These enable collection of fees from users for public services and usage of the fees for

operation of the organizations. In the RBO case, cited is fee collection for water supply,

water use for hydropower, etc.

Table 2.1.3 Laws and Regulations concerning BLU

Title Code RemarksPeraturan Menteri Keuangan RI (DEPARTEMEN KEUNAGAN RI)

Nomor 07/PMK.02/2006 Persyaratan Administratif Penetapan PK BLU

Nomor 08/PMK.02/2006 Pengadaan Barang/Jasa BLU

Nomor 09/PKM.02/2006 Dewan Pengawas BLU Nomor 10/PMK.02/2006 Remuerasi BLU Nomor 66/PMK.02/2006 RBA dan DIPA BLU

Ministerial Regulation on BLU

PERATURAN PEMERINTAH REPUBLIK INDONESIA

NOMOR 23 TAHUN 2005 TENTANG PENGELOLAAN KEUANGAN BADAN LAYANAN UMUM

Government Ordinance on BLU

LAW OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

NUMBER 1 YEAR 2004 CONCERNIGN STATE TREASURY

Law on BLU

LAW OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

NUMBER 17 YEAR 2004 CONCERNIGN STATE TREASURY

Law on BLU


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(4) POLA and RENCANA

POLA and RENCANA are provided in the Government Regulation No.42/2008 for water

resources management in Indonesia wherein several key contents are stated as shown below.

Water resources management is conducted based on water resources management

policies at the national, provincial and regency/municipal levels:

The water resources management policies consist of the aspects on water resources

conservation, water resources utilization, water resources control and information

systems:

POLA is defined as a basic framework of water resources management under (i)

integrated policies of surface water and groundwater in a river basin and (ii)

harmonization of water resources conservation and utilization:

POLA is formulated for 20 years and can be reviewed at least every five years:

RENCANA is also formulated for 20 years and can be reviewed at least every five

years: and

RENCAN is to be (i) a basic plan for preparation of program and activity plan in water

resources sector, and (ii) suggestion for preparation, review and completion of spatial

plan.

(5) Water Resources Management Coordination Team (TKPSDA)

TKPSDA chaired usually by the head of BAPPEDA is formed as a coordinating organization

at the river basin level, of which the major functions are enumerated below:

Consultation with agencies concerned for acceleration of IWRM in river basin in

charge,

Promotion of integration and coordination of interests and concessions, etc. among

sectors, regions and other stakeholders related to water resources management in river

basin in charge,

Monitoring and evaluation on implementation of programs and plans on water resources

management in river basin in charge, and

Draft POLA deliberation/formulation and draft RENCANA deliberation.

(6) Role sharing among Central and Local Governments

The role sharing of central and local governments provided in the Law No.7/2004 regarding

major items of water resources management is presented in Table 2.1.4.

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Table 2.1.4 Role Sharing among Central and Local Governments

Roles Central GovernmentProvincial

GovernmentRegency/Municipal

Governments

Jurisdictional areas

Cross-provincial, cross-country, and national strategic river basins

Cross-regency/ municipal river basins

River basins in regency/ municipality

Preparation of norm, standards, etc.

Preparation of norm, standards, guidelines, manuals

- -

Flood control Nation-wide flood control

Province-wide flood control

Regency/municipality wide flood control

Construction/ improvement of irrigation canals

Primary and secondary irrigation canals in jurisdictional areas

(Same as the left) (Same as the left)

Operation/ maintenance and improvement of irrigation systems

Primary and secondary irrigation systems (irrigation areas of more than 3,000ha)

Primary and secondary irrigation systems (irrigation areas of more than 1,000ha and less than 3,000ha)

Primary and secondary irrigation systems (irrigation areas of less than 1,000ha)


2.2 Movement of Climate Change Measures

The geographical position of Indonesian is very vulnerable to climate change impacts, and

Indonesia has been making its efforts and taking actions towards the implementation of the

commitments as a Non-Annex I Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC).

In 2009, the Indonesian President committed at the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh and at

COP15 in Copenhagen to an ambitious, world-leading target of 26% reduction in carbon

emissions from “Business As Usual (BAU)” by 2020 to participate in reduction of GHG

emissions. With this commitment, Indonesia has been taking a low carbon development path.

(1) Institutional context

To effectively cope with UNFCCC, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) has made a number

of significant steps in mainstreaming climate change issues. The first step was the issuance

of the National Action Plan addressing climate change (MoE, November 2007), which

describes appropriate actions to reduce GHG emissions and adaptation activities in Indonesia.

Furthermore, the National Development Planning Agency (BAPPENAS) developed a

Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR, December 2009) in order to bridge the said

National Action Plan into the 5-year National Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJMN)

2010-2014 and to provide inputs for the subsequent RPJMN until 2030.

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Table 2.2.1 Overview of Institutional Context on Climate Change Measures in Indonesia

I. National Level I-1 Enactment of Laws and Regulations<< Adaptation Measures >> a) Law No.25/2004 on National Development Planning System and Law No.24/2007 on

Disaster Management b) Law No. 32/2009 on Environmental Protection and Managementc) Presidential Regulation No.5/2010 on National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN)

2010-2014 << Mitigation Measures >> a) Presidential Regulation No.61/2011 on the National Action Plan for Greenhouse Gas

Emissions Reduction (RAN-GRK; BAPPENAS) September 2011b) Presidential Regulation No.71/2011 on National GHG Inventory, October 2011 I-2 Other Major Efforts In addition to the above laws and regulations, formulation of major institutional actions is as overviewed below. a) National Action Plan Addressing Climate Change (RANPI), KLH (MoE), November 2007 b) National Development Planning: Indonesia Responses to Climate Change, called as “Yellow

Book”, BAPPENAS, December 2007 (revised in July 2008)c) National Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) in 2009d) Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap (ICCSR), BAPPENAS and other agencies,

December 2009 e) Indonesia Second National Communication under UNFCCC), KLH, November 2011 f) Indonesia National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation (RAN-API, DNPI/

BAPPENAS/KLH）2012 II. Ministerial Level BMKG has conducted the following activities dealing with climate change: Projection of climate change impacts on future rainfall and water balance by the Center for

Climate Change & Air Quality, Downscaling by using conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) developed by Australia

by the Center for R&D III. Provincial Level Regional Action Plan for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (RAD-GRK) IV. Donor Level a) Japan: Bilateral Cooperation on Climate Change

a)-1 Bilateral Cooperation on the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) a)-2 Bilateral Cooperation on Climate Change Between the Government of Japan and the

Government of Indonesia, 25 November 2011 a)-3 Project of Capacity Development for Climate Change Strategies a)-4 Climate Change Program Loans

b) GIZ and Aus. AID: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment c) GIZ and WWF: Risk and Adaptation Assessment to Climate Change in Lombok Island,

West Nusa Tenggara Provinced) ADB: Supporting Investment in Water and Climate Change (T/A: RETA7581) e) WB: Java Water Resources Strategic Study（JWRSS） Source: JICA Project Team 2

(2) Organizations concerned

The institutional arrangements which cope with climate change have been strengthened at

the national level and ministerial/agency levels in Indonesia through organizing the

“National Council on Climate Change (Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim: DNPI)” and units

in charge of climate change at the ministerial/agency levels.

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(a) National level

National Council on Climate Change: DNPI (PD No.46/2008)

DNPI was established as a cross-ministerial organization in July 2008 according to

Presidential Decree No 46/2008, of which the functions are:

Formulation of national policies, strategies and action plans,

Coordination of activities,

Formulation of policy and procedures of carbon credit mechanism,

Monitoring and evaluation of climate change activities, and

Aggrandizement of the country’s position through fulfilling its responsibilities to

the developed countries.

(b) Ministerial level

Major ministries coping with projection of climate change impacts in Indonesia are as stated

below.

Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG)

The Center for Climate Change &Air Quality and the Center for R&D have coped with

climate change in BMKG, of which the functions include observation and data collection,

data analysis, modeling and diffusion/training.

Ministry of Public Works and Housing (MPWH)

In MPWH, the Research & Development Center for Water Resources (PUSAIR) has coped

with the climate change.

2.3 Repeal of Law No.7/2004 on Water Resources

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the Law No.7/2004 was unconstitutional for the

following reason and decided to revoke this law on 18 February 2015:

“The Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia (1945) secures a citizen’s right to use water.

Hence, a certain restriction shall be laid on the entry of private sector companies into

water-supply business.”

In such a state, JICA Project Team 2 carried out hearings in DGWR/MPWH and PJT-1 in

January 2016, to clarify influences of this repeal on this Project, and confirmed that this

Project can move forward as planned. Major findings in the hearing are stated below.

(1) The Constitutional Court decided also to reinstate the previous Law No. 11/1974 on

Water Resources Development (hereinafter referred to as “the Law No.11/1974”) until a new

law on water resources is enacted so as to avoid the state where the water in Indonesia is not

controlled by a law.

(2) The MPWH enacted in 2015, 22 ministerial regulations in Table 2.3.1 with the aim of

bridging the gap between Law No.11/1974 and the actual Indonesian conditions, in the

following situation.

The Law No.11/1974 was established around forty years ago, and the

socioeconomic circumstances at that time are largely different from the prevailing

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socioeconomic condition. Hence, some provisions of the Law No.11/1974 might be

unsuitable for the existing situations in Indonesia.

There is a large difference between the terms used in both laws. Law No.7/2004

stipulates “Integration of surface water and groundwater” and details the five

pillars for water resources management, namely: information, hydrology and

meteorology, construction, water management and water distribution, while Law

No.11/1974 referred to surface water only and has no mention about POLA and

RENCANA.

Table 2.3.1 Ministerial Regulations/2015, MPWH

No Descriptions PUPR04-2015 Criteria & River Basins Establishment PUPR09-2015 Water Resources Utilization PUPR10-2015 Plan & Technical Plan of Water Arrangement & Irrigation System PUPR11-2015 Exploitation & Maintenance of Tidal Swamp Reclamation Network PUPR12-2015 Exploitation & Maintenance of Irrigations Network PUPR13-2015 Emergency Response to Disaster due to Water Damage PUPR14-2015 Criteria & Establishment on Status of Irrigation Area PUPR16-2015 Exploitation & Maintenance of Irrigation Network for Lowland SwampPUPR18-2015 Contribution for Operation and Maintenance of Building Irrigation PUPR21-2015 Exploitation & Maintenance of Pond Irrigation Network PUPR23-2015 Management of Irrigation Asset PUPR28-2015 River & Lakes Boundary

PUPR06-2015 Exploitation & Maintenance of Water Resources and Irrigation Building

PUPR07-2015 Coastal Defense PUPR08-2015 Establishment of Demarcation Lines of Irrigation Network PUPR17-2015 Irrigation Committee PUPR26-2015 River Diversion & Use of Former River Segment PUPR27-2015 Dam PUPR29-2015 Swamp PUPR30-2015 Development and Management of Irrigation Systems PUPR37-2015 Water Utilization Permit PUPR50-2015 Water Resources Utilization Permit

Note: Translated into English by the JICA Project Team 2, based on material in Indonesian from DGWR

(3) These 22 ministerial regulations deal with the areas of river basin division, water

resources utilization, POLA and RENCANA, development/operation/maintenance of

dam/irrigation/swamp, water right, etc. among others.

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