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Water Resources Systems

Global Change, Risk Assessment and WaterManagement

held during IUGG 2003 (Sapporo, Japan).

The provision of adequate water supply is of fundamental importance to social and economic security worldwide. In many regions, the awareness of the wider community of the importance of water resources management has increased dramatically over the past few years. It has becomeclear that, in order to sustainably balance supply and demand of natural resources, the integrationof a range of disciplines from a comprehensive systems perspective is essential and this certainly applies to water. The call for contributions to this symposium was so successful that it was expanded and so the selected papers were divided, according to topic, between two books, IAHS publications280 and 281.

Water Resources Systems

Hydrological Risk, Management and Development (Publ. 281)

edited by Günter Blöschl, Stewart Franks, Michio Kumagai, Katumi Musiake & Dan Rosbjerg

Publ. 281 (2003), ISBN 1-901502-32-5; 266 + x pp. Price£60.30

As a result of contamination issues, land-use changes andglobal climate fluctuations, water availability appears to be

decreasing in many regions. At the same time, dealing with the risk associated with extremeevents—be it floods, droughts or other hazards—has become an integral part of the managementand development of any water resources system, both in short-term operations as well as in thelong-term planning of water resources. This volume addresses (see over for contents):

– – Flood risk: analysing trends and processes,

– – Modelling flood runoff,

– – Drought risk: analysing trends and processes,

– – Management of reservoir systems,

– – Water resources management policies,

– – Water resources management: methods and case studies,

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– – Integrating water resources management.









Alphabetical List of Authors

Contents

Preface by Günter Blöschl, Stewart Franks, Michio Kumagai, Katumi Musiake &

Dan Rosbjerg

v

1 Introduction

Water Resources Systems—Hydrological Risk, Management and Development: A Summary

Günter Blöschl

3

2 Flood Risk: Analysing Trends and Processes

The impact of climate variability on flood risk

Anthony S. Kiem &Stewart W. Franks

11

Frequency of catastrophic climatic phenomena in Ukraine under the influence of global warming

Svetlana G. Boychenko

18

Could global warming have caused the most recent floods on the Tisza River?

András Bárdossy, István Kontur, Jiri Stehlik & Gábor Bálint

26

Extreme precipitation and floods in the changing world Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

32

Testing trends in annual maximum discharge series in Israel

Arie Ben-Zvi & Benjamin Azmon

40

Regional flood risk—what are the driving processes?

Ralf Merz &Günter Blöschl

49

Comparison of maximum precipitation estimates with runoff depths for the 1342 and 2002 Central European flood events

Gerd Tetzlaff, Michael Börngen,Manfred Mudelsee & Armin Raabe

59

3 Modelling Flood Runoff An approach to creating lumped-parameter rainfall–runoff models for drainage basins experiencing environmental change

67

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Earl Bardsley & Suxia Liu

Data assimilation in the MIKE 11 Flood Forecasting system using Kalman filtering

Henrik Madsen, Dan Rosbjerg, Jesper Damgård &Frands Søbjerg Hansen

75

A “consensus” real-time river flow forecasting model for the Blue Nile River

Asaad Y. Shamseldin & Kieran M. O’Connor

82

Flood forecasting and management in Pakistan

Shaukat Ali Awan

90

Risk assessment for closure of the diversion channel at the Three Gorges Project on the Yangtze River

Caijun Wang, Shenglian Guo, Xiangrong Tian &Yonghua Zhu

99

Application of dynamic-stochastic runoff generation models for estimating

extreme flood frequency distributions L. S. Kuchment, A. N. Gelfan &V. N. Demidov

107

Decision support system for flood control and ecosystem upgrading in the Red River basin

M. J. Booij

115

Flood control—environmental and socio-economic issues: case study of a diversion area in Vietnam

Phan Thi Anh Dao & Takara Kaoru

123

4 Drought Risk: Analysing Trends and Processes Effects of forest restoration in mountainous basins on the long-term change in baseflow recession constants

Junji Shimokura & Hirofumi Shibano

133

Impact of climate on flow regimes of the upper reaches of streams

Hironobu Sugiyama, Varawoot Vudhivanich, Andrew C. Whitaker & Kosit Lorsirirat

141

Did sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions affect drought episodes in Taiwan?

Fong-Chiau Chang & Chung-Ho Wang

148

Assessment of the impact of climate and ecosystem changes on drought conditions: case study from Romania

Gheorghe Stancalie, Simona Catana,Ion Poiana, Anisoara Iordache & VasileCraciunescu

158





































Elevated drought risk due to multi-decadal climate variability

Anthony S. Kiem & Stewart W. Franks

165

5 Management of Reservoir Systems

An optimization model for reservoir systems to assist in coping with changes in demand and supply conditions

Carsten Brass & Andreas H. Schumann

175

Water allocation for multiple uses based on probabilistic reservoir inflow forecasts

Sankar Arumugam, Ashish Sharma & Upmanu Lall

184

Improved heuristic reservoir operation using control curves incorporating the vulnerability norm

Adebayo Adeloye, Athanasios Psarogiannis &Majid Montaseri

192

Optimal short-term operation of a multipurpose reservoir system under limited water supply

Antonio Cancelliere, Giuseppe Giuliano, Vincenzo Nicolosi & Giuseppe Rossi

200

Evaluation of alternate objective functions for optimal operation of an irrigation reservoir under a multi-crop environment

N. V. Umamahesh

208

Simulating the discharge of the Chao Phraya River taking into account reservoir operation

Naota Hanasaki, Shinjiro Kanae, Katumi Musiake & Taikan Oki

215

6 Water Resources Management Policies

Large dams—a contribution to sustainable water and energy development?

Elke Petersson & Manfred W. Ostrowski

227

India’s national water policy and water management

K. S. Murty

233

Towards a new paradigm for integrated water resources management and development in Indonesia

Joesron Loebis

240

Proposed soil and water conservation strategies for Lake Rawa Dano, West Java, Indonesia

Seno Adi

248







































7 Water Resources Management: Methods and Case Studies Environmental flow requirements in water resource planning and operation

Denis Hughes

261

Integrated water resources management under complex hydro-political conditions: the Palestinian case study

Ayman Rabi, Abdellatif Khaled &Natasha Carmi

269

Impact of the Gurara River (Nigeria) interbasin water transfer scheme on the Kaduna River at the Shiroro Dam

O. D. Jimoh & O. S. Ayodeji

277

Effects of climate change on irrigation activities: a case study of the Benin-Owena River basin irrigation projects

Catherine I. Ikhile & George U. Ikhile

287

A simulation study of infiltration facility impact on the water cycle of an urban catchment

Srikantha Herath, Katumi Musiake & Sadayuki Hironaka

294

Method for satellite monitoring of water storage in reservoirs for efficient regional water management

Jun Magome, Hiroshi Ishidaira &Kuniyoshi Takeuchi

303

8 Integrating Water Resources Management Sustainability and groundwater

Hugo A. Loáiciga

313

Water management budget as a basis for assessing water priorities in a catchment

Boris Fashchevsky & Tatyana Fashchevskaya

322

A system for ecological and economic assessment of the use, preservation and restoration of urban water bodies: St Petersburg as a case study

Sergei Kondratyev

327

Sustainable water resources management in the Dragonja catchment, Slovenia

Mitja Brilly & Lidija Globevnik

334

The Chinese water resource: managing increasing demand and natural variations

Jianping Yang, Yongjian Ding & Rensheng Chen

341





































Impact of population growth and climate change on the quantity and quality of water resources in the northeast of India

U. C. Sharma

349

Wor ld water use and water availability: trends, scenarios, consequences

Igor A. Shiklomanov & Jeanna А. Balonishnikova

358

Key word index 365

Preface of IAHS Redbook 281

In many regions of the world, the awareness of the wider community of the importance of

water resources management has increased dramatically over the past few years. It has

become increasingly clear that, in order to sustainably balance supply and demand of natural resources, the integration of a range of disciplines from a comprehensive systems

perspective is essential and this certainly applies to one of our most precious resources:

water. As a result of contamination issues, changes in land-use patterns and global climatefluctuations, water availability appears to be decreasing in many regions, contrasted by an

increase in water demand as a result of a growing population and changes in the global

economy. At the same time, dealing with the risk associated with extreme events—be it

floods, droughts or other hazards—has become an integral part of the management anddevelopment of any water resources system, both in the short-term operation as well as the

long-term planning of water resources.

During the 2003 General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics,30 June–11 July 2003 in Sapporo, Japan, a symposium was held entitled: Water Resources

Systems—Global Change, Risk Assessment and Water Management . The Symposium was

organized by the International Commission on Water Resources Systems, ICWRS, of the

International Association of Hydrological Sciences, IAHS, together with other IAHScommissions.

The broad coverage and the multi-faceted nature of the subject area were reflected in the

large number of contributions to the symposium drawn from a range of disciplines. The

paper proceedings from this symposium have been compiled into two volumes. Acompanion volume (IAHS Publ. no. 280*) focuses on water availability while the present

volume focuses on hydrological risk and water management. The first paper in this volume provides a summary of the contributions published here.

The editors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of a number of reviewers in bringingtogether this volume including Adebayo Johnson Adeloye, Sankar Arumugam,

Earl Bardsley, Arie Ben-Zvi, Martijn J. Booij, Abdel-Azim M. Ebraheem, Denis Hughes,

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Hugo A. Loaiciga, Umamahesh V. Nanduri, Asaad Y.Shamseldin, Ashish Sharma, Igor A. Shiklomanov, Hironobu Sugiyama, and Caijun Wang.









Many thanks to Cate Gardner from IAHS Press for her professional approach and all the

help with the processing of the manuscripts.

Editor in chief:

Günter BlöschlVienna University of Technology, Austria

Co-editors:

Stewart Franks

University of Newcastle, Australia

Michio Kumagai Lake Biwa Research Institute, Uchidehama Otsu, Japan

Katumi Musiake

University of Tokyo, Japan

Dan Rosbjerg

Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark

*Available from IAHS Press: Water Resources Systems–—Water Availability and Global Change, edited by

Stewart Franks, Günter Blöschl, Michio Kumagai, Katumi Musiake & Dan Rosbjerg. IAHS Publ. no. 280.

Water Resources Systems—Hydrological Risk, Management and Development (Proceedings of symposium HS02b held during IUGG2003 at

Sapporo, July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 281, 2003. p. 3–8.

Water Resources Systems—Hydrological Risk,Management and

Development: A Summary

GÜNTER BLÖSCHL

Institut für Hydraulik, Gewässerkunde und Wasserwirtschaft, Technische Universität Wien, Karlsplatz 13/223, A-1040 Wien, Austria

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[email protected]

INTRODUCTION

This volume contains 43 contributions authored by experts from 31 countries which is

certainly a reflection of the importance of management and risk issues in water resources in

many parts of the world. The publication has been organized into seven topics. Thefollowing is a brief summary of the main themes and results of the individual contributions,

highlighting the overall findings of the symposium as far as hydrological risk and water

management are concerned.

FLOOD RISK: ANALYSING TRENDS AND PROCESSES

The first set of papers relates to flood trends and flood processes. Kiem & Franks analyse

temporal trends of flood risk across southeast Australia and relate flood occurrence to

climatic indicators. They find that La Niña events are the dominant drivers of elevatedflood risk and that an Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation index is significantly related to

multi-decadal epochs of elevated flood risk. These results point to the non-stationarity of

flood risk and hence have marked implications for achieving robust flood estimates.Boychenko analyses the long-term trends of floods, droughts and other climatic anomalies

and relates them to a number of causative factors. She finds that most of the anomalies are

closely related to temperature fluctuations which allows her to construct a regression modelto represent future scenarios associated with possible climate change. A similar analysis of climate factors is provided by Bárdossy et al . who analyse flood peaks of the River Tisza,

Hungary, where most of the largest flood peaks of a 100-year record have occurred during

the past four years. Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns show non-stationary behaviour suggesting they are a possible explanation for the increase of floods in the Tisza

basin although the results are not univocal. Kundzewicz takes a wider perspective of the

same problem, analysing flood trends around the world. He finds that, in many places,flood risk is likely to grow due to a combination of anthropogenic and climatic factors

although there are numerous counter-examples. A more prevalent finding is an increasing

vulnerability to floods. This is consistent with the results of Ben-Zvi & Azmon who

examine temporal trends in flood peaks in a number of regions in Israel. Except for oneregion, the changes are of local extent, if any. In some catchments flood peaks appear to

increase, but they appear to decline in others.

While these contributions focus on isolating temporal trends and relating them to climaticindicators, the following two contributions examine individual flood processes more

closely. Merz & Blöschl propose a framework for identifying the causative mechanisms of

floods at the regional scale. They test the framework on flood data in Austria and are able



to stratify the flood peaks into long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, rain-on-

snow floods and snow-melt floods. All the flood types exhibit pronounced seasonal

patterns and their relative contribution changes with flood magnitude. Tetzlaff et al .analyse the causative factors of two major flood events in Germany, the 1342 and the 2002

floods, by relating results from a dynamic precipitation model to observed (or estimated)

flood discharges, which allows them to back-calculate the most important hydrologicalcharacteristics of the flood events.

MODELLING FLOOD RUNOFF

The second set of papers presents a variety of methods for estimating flood flows. Some of

them are set in the wider context of socio-economic activities. Bardsley & Liu propose amethod for rainfall–runoff model construction using manual calibration of hydrograph lag

and length, with automated calibration of a large number of "hidden parameters". They

argue that this procedure is amenable to land-use change applications, and hence they test itfor catchments in New Zealand and China which have experienced land-use change.

Madsen et al . propose a procedure of using water level data and stream flow data to update

the model states of a flood forecasting model based on ensemble Kalman filtering. Using a

case study in northwestern Italy, they show that the procedure significantly improves themodel’s forecast skills as compared to forecasting without updating. Shamseldin &

O’Connor combine the river flow forecasts of two individual multiple-input single-output

river flow routing models. They use a weighted average method and an auto-regressivemodel error updating procedure to combine the outputs of these two models into one

prediction. However, the performance of the combined model is not significantly better

than that of the best of the individual models. Awan analyses the different meteorological

causes of floods in Pakistan. He then reviews the suite of modelling approaches used inPakistan and the more practical aspects of instrumentation and dissemination of the

forecasts.

A more local study is provided by Wang et al . who estimate the flood risk for ahydropower project in China. Specifically they calculate the combined hydrological and

hydraulic risk of the closure of a diversion channel for different times of the year and find a

strong seasonal dependency of this risk. Kuchment et al . derive a flood frequency modelcombining a stochastic precipitation model and a deterministic rainfall–

runoff model. They use the model to examine the effect of changed land-use conditions on

the flood frequency characteristics of a catchment in southwestern Russia.

In a much broader context, Booij combines hydrological, hydraulic and economic modelsto support decision making in flood control and ecosystem upgrading measures. He

evaluates scenarios for the Red River basin in Vietnam and China. Some of these scenarios

decrease flood damage but they may also decrease total revenues. The paper by Dao &Kaoru deals with a part of the same river basin. However, they adopt a wider view of the

socio-economic issues of both flooding and the lack of flooding as a result of a channel

constructed to divert the Day River. Their findings, based on a comprehensive



questionnaire campaign, suggest that local people are highly inventive and adapt to the

regular occurrence of floods and so are well prepared to cope with regular flooding.

DROUGHT RISK: ANALYSING TRENDS AND PROCESSES

Shimokura & Shibano examine the temporal trends of baseflow recession over a 70-year

period in three forest restoration catchments in Japan. They find that flow recessions have

become flatter in recent years and interpret this as a result of the development of forest

soils associated with the growth of the forest over the years. A somewhat similar study isreported by Sugiyama et al. who compare flow regimes in the upper reaches of streams in

the temperate zone (eastern Japan) with those in the tropical monsoon zone (western

Thailand). They find vastly different low flow characteristics and give some guidance onthe choice of low flow indices to be used for the design of water resources facilities in

these contrasting climates.

Chang & Wang investigate precipitation changes in Taiwan during the twentieth century.

They find a remarkable consistency between major drought episodes and sulphur richeruptions of volcanoes around the world. They interpret the causal relationships in terms of

the effect of aerosols in the atmosphere on radiative processes. Stancalie et al . analyse the

increasing aridization in southern Romania where nine severe droughts have occurredduring the past 20 years. They use a coal basin in the area as an example to demonstrate

that, to increase ecosystem resistance to long drought effects, stress elements such as

anthropogenic activities must be reduced.

The final paper of this section leads on to the reservoir management section of this volume.

Kiem & Franks investigate drought risk by analysing the performance of a water storagereservoir in southeast Australia. The find one particular climate index, the Inter-decadal

Pacific Oscillation index, to be representative of drought variability. They compare threeadaptive management strategies with current practice and conclude that the adaptive

strategies based on climate index forecasts can improve drought security.

MANAGEMENT OF RESERVOIR SYSTEMS

Brass & Schumann propose an adaptive model for optimizing a reservoir system which

facilitates frequent adjustments of the management strategy. They illustrate the potential of the approach with a hypothetical five reservoir system and analyse possible climate change

and demand change scenarios. Arumugam et al . present a framework of water allocation

for multiple uses based on annual water contract terms and ensemble forecasts of reservoir inflows using climatic indices. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated for a

reservoir in Brazil. An alternative method that uses control curves is proposed by Adeloye

et al . Hypothetical reservoir simulations using the proposed method suggest that, without prior knowledge of inflows, the resulting reservoir performance was acceptable in that



recovery was rapid and emptiness was avoided. The authors suggest that control curves

provide a much easier and cheaper, yet effective, alternative to operating policies which

often require inflow forecasting to be effective.

Cancelliere et al . present a methodology for deriving operating rules for a multipurpose

reservoir system based on optimization and neural network techniques. They test themethod for different hydrological scenarios. In a similar study, Umamahesh develops the

operating policy for an irrigation reservoir in India and compares three models of differentcomplexities using simulations. His results suggest that the most complex model performs

best. Hanasaki et al . propose a method for deriving reservoir operating rules from globally

available data sets and test the method for a river in Thailand. The authors conclude thatthis method provides more reliable estimates of the seasonal distribution of the global

water resources and its inter-annual fluctuation than existing procedures.

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT POLICIES

A comprehensive discussion of the role of dams in integrated water resources managementis provided by Petersson & Ostrowski. They suggest that the main challenge of the coming

years will be to adapt existing methods of multi-criteria decision-support to water

development in general and to dams in particular, and to ensure their practicality andacceptability in a planning context. Murty provides a historical perspective of the national

water policies in India, focusing on the amendments to previous policies of the most recent

legislation. In a similar vein, Loebis reports on the past and current water management policies in Indonesia. He gives a detailed account of the change of paradigm that is taking

place when moving from a centralized water policy to a decentralised participatory water

policy, and identifies the role of the stakeholders in the new paradigm.

At a much smaller scale, but in a similar setting, Adi proposes water and soil conservationstrategies to reduce soil erosion and to maintain the water quality of a West Java lake. He

does this by introducing a ranking of priority development for soil and water conservation,

from seasonal crop areas, to forested areas, and perennial crops. He emphasises the need

for a water management board to coordinate the diverse water related activities in thecatchment area.

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: METHODS AND CASE STUDIESHughes discusses approaches to quantifying environmental flows that appear to still rely

heavily on expert judgement in the absence of sufficient hard data concerning bioticresponses to changes in river flow regimes. He discusses implementation issues for rivers

across South Africa in the context of the water resource management structures and

legislation that exist in South Africa. Rabi et al . examine the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall and resulting groundwater recharge in the Jordan River basin including the effects



of a recent drought year. They then discuss the implications for water management vis-à-

vis the complex hydro-political situation in the area involving Palestine and Israel.

Jimoh & Ayodeji analyse the effects of future interbasin water transfers on the water management of a reservoir in Nigeria. Based on a simulation study they conclude that the

water transfer will increase hydropower generation but at the same time increase the floodrisk downstream of the dam. To reconcile these competing issues they propose structural

flood protection measures. Ikhile & Ikhile examine irrigation activities in a Nigeriancatchment and relate them to climate fluctuations. They report that the government has

responded promptly to the evidence of decreasing precipitation and has made provisions

for accelerated irrigation projects.

Herath et al. present a simulation study in which they examine the effect on the water

balance components of infiltration facilities in the suburbs of Tokyo. They conclude that

the infiltration facilities both increase the groundwater recharge and reduce the flood flows,

effects that are considered favourable in the context of water resource management of this

type of urban system. In the context of assessing water resources at much larger scales,Magome et al . propose a suite of methods for monitoring the seasonal variation of water

storage in reservoirs. They use satellite images to extract the water surface area, andsatellite altimetry to obtain estimates of the lake level, and test the method for a large

reservoir in Ghana.

INTEGRATING WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

In this final section, Loáiciga presents a method for calculating sustainable groundwater

pumping rates in terms of diverse economic and hydraulic factors. The method maximizesthe expected value of the net revenue subject to a number of constraints that ensure

consistency with the definition of sustainability chosen. He illustrates the feasibility of theapproach by a hypothetical example. Fashchevsky & Fashchevskaya propose an approach

for assessing priorities in the use of water resources in a catchment, based on assigning

water resources to different uses including drinking water supply, industry, irrigation,

recreation, and aquatic ecosystems. Their contribution then focuses on the determination of environmental flows in an integrated management context, illustrated by an example from

the Volga River. Kondratyev presents a somewhat similar method, but for an urban setting,

for choosing optimum strategies for managing the urban water bodies in St Petersburg. Theeconomic returns for the water users are maximized under the constraints that water quality

and the ecological state need to be maintained. Brilly & Globevnik discuss several

strategies of integrated and sustainable management of the water resources in a catchmentshared by Slovenia and Croatia. They focus on reconciling several conflicting interests

including drinking water supply, food production, tourist development and landscape

value.

Yang et al . is a fine example of the role of water management in balancing the variabilityof water resources in both time and space. Northern China is currently experiencing a water



shortage as a result of decreasing rainfall trends, despite frequent flooding. Yang et al .

discuss a suite of measures including conservation measures and water transfers to balance

water shortage and increasing demand. A similar discussion is provided in Sharma for thecase of northeastern India where deforestation has resulted in water scarcity because of

reduced recharge to aquifers. Sharma suggests that a dramatic shift in management practice

is needed, including replacement of the current practice of shifting cultivation bysustainable farming systems.

At a much broader scale, Shiklomanov & Balonishnikova contrast the Conventional and

the Sustainable Development scenarios of world water use and water availability. While in

the former, world water use would increase by more than a third in the next 20 years, in thelatter water use would be almost stable. Whichever scenario will be more appropriate, the

authors emphasize the need for multi-facetted solutions to water problems around the

world.

water resources systems

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