we need two weeks to set first quarter trends

8/14/2019 We need two weeks to set first quarter trends

1/4

Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

Suttmeier's Four in Four video and ForexTV Markets Review can be watched on the webHERE.

Januar y 5, 2010 We need two weeks to set first quarter trends

The price action for yields, commodities, currencies and stocks over the next two weeks keydirection for the first quarter at least. Today I look at the daily charts.

The US Capital Markets began 2010 assuming continuation of 2009.

The yield on the 10-Year is balanced by risk aversion and increasing supply with a touch of inflationaryrisk from the prices paid component of the national ISM.

The gold bugs are back after taking a two week holiday. Will the precious metal become the currency oflast resort with a re-inflated bubble, or will $1,000 come before $1250?

The energy experts are back calling for $100 crude oil or higher touting global demand and a USeconomic recovery. Or, is it just speculation as traders return and reset the dollar carry trade?

The dollar index is the wildcard, and Mondays greenback fallback was a major focus.Stocks become move overvalued and more overbought, as the equity bubble continues to inflate.

Fridays closes should set the trends and they are inter-related, but we may need to wait until thecloses on Friday, January 15th as it usually takes two to three weeks of a new year to set the trend forthe quarter.

The daily chart for the 10-Year yield shows that the rise in yields is overdone.

My neutral zone is between my monthly pivot at 3.868 and my semiannual pivot at 3.675. A weeklyclose cheaper than 3.868 targets my semiannual support at 4.250 on supply and inflation concerns. Aweekly close richer than 3.675 indicates a return to risk aversion.

The daily chart for Comex gold shows an alleviation of an oversold condition on a return of the dollarcarry trade.

This does not mean a return of the Parabolic Bubble as weekly, monthly and semiannual resistancesare stacked up at $1157.80, $1166.70 and $1186.90. Above is the re-inflated bubble. A close onJanuary 15th below my quarterly support at $1084.90 indicates risk to annual support at $938.70.


2/4

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The daily chart for Nymex Crude oil shows an overbought condition as $100 oil is hyped by WallStreet.



3/4

The key on January 15th is a close relative to my annual support at $77.05. Above is a potential trendtowards annual and semiannual resistances as a 2010 ceiling at $97.29 to $97.29 by Hurricaneseason.

Below $77.05 is the acknowledgment that the economic recovery will be short of expectations with riskto my quarterly support at $67.22.

The daily chart for the dollar Index shows a trading range between the 50-day simple movingaverage at $76.30 and the 200-day at $79.18.


We need a close on January 15th above my quarterly resistance at $80.23 to signal an end to the dollarcarry trade. The dollar is thus the wild card as semiannual supports are at new lows at $73.54 and$68.74, which will fuel the dollar carry trade.

The daily chart for the Dow shows an overbought condition and ValuEngine Valuations areovervalued.

My new annual pivot is 10,379 and a close below on January 15 th signals the Fake-out after theBreakout, which was my prediction a month ago. There is a cascade of resistances: weekly at 10,746,monthly at 10,997, annual at 11,235 and semiannual at 11,422. Quarterly support lags at 6,705.


4/4


Send me your comments and questions to [email protected]. For more information on ourproducts and services visit www.ValuEngine.com

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Check out the latest Forex TVs Markets Review Live each day at 1:30 PM.

http://www.forextv.com/Forex/custom/LiveVideo/Player.jsp

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

we need two weeks to set first quarter trends

Documents