WEATHER Observing and Prediction Capabilities

Joe Sienkiewicz, Director (Acting),

NOAA / National Weather Service

Ocean Prediction Center

http://weather.gov

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ h"p://www.facebook.com/OceanPredic6onCenter 1  

College  Park,  MD  

NWS  /  Ocean  Predic/on  Center  mission/responsibility  

•  Protec/on  of  life  and  property,  safety  at  sea,  and  enhancement  of  economic  opportunity  –  Issue  Warnings  and  Forecasts  

 

•  Par6ally  fulfill  U.S.  responsibili6es  with  the  World  Meteorological  Organiza6on  and  Safety  of  Life  at  Sea  Conven6on  (SOLAS)  –  Global  Mari6me  Distress  Safety  System  *GMDSS*  (

h"p://www.gmdss.com/)  •  Forecast  support    

–  Government  incident  response  (USCG,NOAA)  

–  Government  opera6ons  (USCG,  Navy,  NOAA)    

•  Science  AND  service  based  organiza6on  

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h"p://weather.gmdss.org/metareas.html  

OPC   OPC  

NHC  

HFO  

US/NWS    Responsibility  

NHC  

Observa6ons  

•  Satellites  – Geosta6onary  (Japan  -­‐  Himawari-­‐8)  •  Most  advanced  capabili6es  to  date    

– Polar  orbi6ng  •  Mul6ple  sensors,  instruments,  capabili6es  

•  In-­‐situ  observa6ons  (buoys)  – Expensive,  limited  representa6on,  and  vulnerable  

•  Ships  of  opportunity  (Volunteer  Observing  Ships)  – Not  always  frequent  

Predic6on  •  Meterological  Services  

–  Goal  –  informa6on  for  informed  decision  making  –  Tools    

•  Numerical  models    –  Determinis6c  (one  answer  from  one  forecast  model)  

»  Atmospheric  -­‐  Wind,  Visibility,  Thunderstorms,  Tropical  Cyclones    »  Waves  »  Ocean  (current)  

–  Probabilis6c  (many  answers  from  many  models)  –  Mul6  Model  Ensembles  »  factoring  in    

•  uncertainty  at  6me  0    •  Relevance  of  an  event  based  on  past  events    

»  Atmospheric    »  Tropical  cyclones  »  Waves  

•  Forecaster  interpreta6on  –  Knowledge  –  experience  

Himawari-­‐8  AHI  Visible  imagery  

GOES  -­‐13  Visible  imagery    Vaisala  Lightning  

Short  Range  Ensemble  Probability  of  Visibility    0.25  nm  or  less  

NASA  MODIS  Fog  Product  

GOES-­‐13  Fog  Product  

NOAA  High  Resolu6on  Rapid  Refresh  (HRRR)  

Visibility  (nm)  

GOES-­‐13  Fog  Product  

NOAA  High  Resolu6on  Rapid  Refresh  (HRRR)  

Visibility  (nm)  

Short  Range  Ensemble  Probability  of  Visibility    0.25  nm  or  less  

U.S.  WSR-­‐88D    Na6onal  Radar  Composite  

Japan  MTSAT    Vaisala  based    Lightning  Density  

European  Advanced  Sca"erometer  –  A  and  B  (ASCATs)  NASA  RapidScat  (ISS)    

Near  surface  vector  winds  (knots)  

Satellite  Al6meter    Wave  Heights  (FT)    

JASON-­‐2  Al6Ka  

CryoSat-­‐2  

U.S.  Global  Forecast  System  (GFS)  Near  surface  wind  speeds  (knots)  

European  Center  for  Medium  Range  Weather    Forecas6ng  

(ECMWF)  Significant  Wave  Height  (FT)  

Mul6-­‐Model  Ensemble    Probability  of  Wind  Speeds  20  

knots  or  greater    144  hour  forecast  

Typhoon  Maysak  Himawari-­‐8    

½  km  resolu6on  visible  10  min  temporal  resolu6on  

Tropical  Cyclone  Predic6on  Improvements  

Hurricane  Weather  Research  and  Forecast  System  (HWRF)  

HWRF  -­‐  Hurricane  Weather  Research  and  Forecast  System  

HWRF  -­‐  Hurricane  Weather  Research  and  Forecast  System  

HWRF  -­‐  Hurricane  Weather  Research  and  Forecast  System  

Summary  

•  Advanced  observing  capabili6es  exist  for  weather  watch  

•  Reaping  benefit  of  targeted  science  and  service  foci  (tropical  cyclones)  

•  Predic6on  in  determinis6c  and  probabilis6c  modes  improving  

•  Shorter  term  predic6on  (models)  to  address  weather  needs  (i.e.,  thunderstorms)  

•  Communica6ng  to  those  at  sea  con6nues  to  be  a  challenge