weather update - province of manitoba · page 18 –march-28-18 precipitation for the agricultural...

Weather Update

Flood Seminars

Natalie Hasell

Meteorological Service of

Canada

Mid-March 2018

– March-28-18

Table of contents

• Current conditions

– Temperatures

– Precipitation

• El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• Forecasts

– Short term forecasts and the Seasonal forecasts

– March-28-18

Current conditions

• Temperatures

• Precipitation

– March-28-18

Temperatures

• Arctic ridges of high pressure formed and reformed over

the Canadian Prairies this fall and winter seasons

• Leading to long stretches of below-normal temperatures

across the province, especially in November, December

and February.

– March-28-18

Monthly Temperature anomalies,

September 2017 – February 2018

September October November

December January February

– March-28-18

– March-28-18

Soil temperatures

• Frost

– has reached down to 1.5 m below the surface in

some locations.

– March-28-18

Soil temperatures

The soil temperature network is a legacy network which is unsupported –

data cannot be validated nor QA/QC’d.

Depth (cm) 5 10 20 50 100 150 300

7 March 2018

WZE Carberry -8.9 -15.6 -3.9 -3.6 -2.8 3.3 3.6

WNK Carman -2.0 -2.0 M -5.4 -1.6 0.24 5.0

XMD Morden -2.6 -2.0 -4.8 -7.3 M 0.2 3.4

WXB Roblin -8.2 -3.0 M -3.7 -1.1 -0.4 2.7

WOO McCreary -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.1 0.7 0.7 5.3

XWG Winnipeg -5.0 -4.8 -4.5 -4.2 -2.9 -0.7 4.8

– March-28-18

Soil temperatures

• http://agriculture.canada.ca/SoilMonitoringStations/intera

ctive-map-en.html

• http://agriculture.canada.ca/SoilMonitoringStations/curren

t-data-en.html#manitoba

http://agriculture.canada.ca/SoilMonitoringStations/current-data-en.html#manitoba

http://agriculture.canada.ca/SoilMonitoringStations/current-data-en.html#manitoba

– March-28-18

– March-28-18

NWS Frost depth and snow depth

map (inches) March 7, 2018

• 48-60 in = 122-152 cm

• 36-48 in = 91-122 cm

• 24-36 in = 61-91 cm

– March-28-18

– March-28-18

Precipitation for the Agricultural Year

Before March 4, 2018

• Near normal precipitation for the southeastern corner of

Eastman and areas from Flin Flon, The Pas, Norway

House, Thompson, and Lake Winnipeg north basin;

• Otherwise dry to very dry in the rest of Manitoba and the

Red River basin south of the border;

• Also very little in southeastern Saskatchewan;

• Areas along the Foothills and parts of southern and

central Alberta have received well over normal amounts

of precipitation.

– March-28-18

Monthly % of normal precipitation amounts,

September 2017 – February 2018

September October November

December January February

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– March-28-18

Precipitation: Sept 1 – Feb 27

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% normal: September 1- February 27

– March-28-18

Precipitation: Oct 1 2017 to Feb 27 2018

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% of normal: Oct 1 2017 to Feb 27 2018

– March-28-18

– March-28-18

Precipitation continued

• The Alberta low and Colorado low that hit the Prairies

from March 4-6 2018 increased the % of normal

precipitation since September 1 by 15% up to 25% in

some locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba as well

as the Red River basin in the United States.

– March-28-18

March-28-18

% normal: September 1- February 27

March-28-18

% normal: September 1- March 8

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% of normal: Oct 1 2017 to Feb 27 2018

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% of normal: October 1 2017 to March 7 2018

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And now onto forecasts!

• ENSO

• Forecasts

– Short Term

– Seasonal forecasts

March-28-18

El Niño – Southern Oscillation

Reported on March 5, 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

La Niña conditions are present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the

central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is most likely during the Northern

Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during the March-May

season).*

*Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with

the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

March-28-18

March-28-18

El Niño – Southern OscillationCPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook

Updated: February 8, 2018

• A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected during the

Northern Hemisphere spring (~55% chance of ENSO-neutral during

March-May). Thereafter, ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through

fall 2018.

March-28-18

El Niño – Southern Oscillation

Figure provided by the

International Research Institute

(IRI) for Climate and Society

(updated February 19, 2018).

IRI/CPC Pacific Niño

3.4 SST Model Outlook

• The majority of

models predict La

Niña to persist into

Northern Hemisphere

spring 2018, with a

return to ENSO-

neutral by summer

2018.

March-28-18

March-28-18

Short term forecasts

• North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

over the next two weeks suggests:

• Wind chills below -40 remains in the far north of the

province

• Slight possibility of Colorado lows affecting the

southeastern corner of the province

• Strong winds over Hudson Bay and possibly over the

Manitoba Lakes

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/index_e.html

March-28-18

Wind chill colder than -40

From evening March 13 to evening March 28, 2018

March-28-18

Probability of precipitation amounts > 25 mm

Week 1


March-28-18

Probability of precipitation amounts > 25 mm

Week 2


March-28-18

Probability of sustained winds > 50 km/h

Week 1


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Probability of sustained winds > 50 km/h

Week 2


March-28-18

Temperature trends

Week 2


March-28-18

Seasonal Forecasts

March-April-May 2018

Official ECCC forecast issued February 28, 2018;

IRI Columbia forecasts issued February 1, 2018;

Official NWS forecast issued February 15, 2018.

Disagreement between forecasts:

• ECCC forecast calls for above-normal temperatures in

Manitoba – NWS border area has no trend.

• ECCC has signal for above-normal amounts in AB/SK while

NWS calls for above-normal amounts across border with

Prairies.

March-28-18

March-28-18

Precipitation normals (1981-2010) for

March-April-May

Location MAM normals

(mm)

Red River Basin 100-150

Interlake- Dauphin 100-140

Eastman-Winnipeg River 120-150

Assiniboine-Souris Basins 85-125

Saskatchewan River Basin 80-90

North Saskatchewan 70-130

South Saskatchewan 65-195

March-28-18

Thank you!

• Questions?

• [email protected]

• 204 983 5871

weather update - province of manitoba · page 18 –march-28-18 precipitation for the agricultural...

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