COUNCIL 19 OCTOBER 2020

Subject: State of the District Lead Officer: Melanie Jeffery

Email: melanie.jeffery@stratford-dc.gov.uk Lead Member/Portfolio Holder: Councillor T Jefferson

Summary As part of the consultation process, consideration of the State of the District needs to be assessed by the Council. This report summarises the events of the past year, along with an outline of future proposals. It also provides information on the current economic, social and environmental profile of the District.Recommendation That the State of the Stratford-on-Avon District is noted and the issues raised are considered as part of the budget-making process for 2021/22.

1 Background/Information 1.1 Stratford-on-Avon District Council’s Constitution stipulates that the Council will

debate the State of the District at the Council Meeting in the autumn. 1.2 The Constitution states that the Leader will decide the form of the debate. 1.3 The results of the debate will be:

i. disseminated as widely as possible within the community and to agencies and organisations in the area;

ii. considered by the Leader in proposing the Budget and Policy Framework to the Council for 2021/22; and

iii. considered in the shaping of the Council’s future policies and strategies. 2 2020 Approach2.1 Desk research has been undertaken using a variety of information sources, plus

primary research utilising the views of residents from the Stratford-on-Avon District Council Residents’ Survey 2019.

2.2 The report contains the current State of the District in terms of data and contains information from different sources. It covers many different areas from health and wellbeing to the economy, not all of which Stratford-on-Avon District Council (SDC) can influence. It is important to note that the figures included in the report are from the most relevant data available and reference to events happening at the Council refer to 31 March 2020 for the most part. However, the effect of the pandemic cannot be ignored, so data is included after this date. Appendix 1 contains a summary of the State of the District in the form of an infographic.

3 State of the District: Population Key Facts Population 130,098Change on mid-2018 +2,518Median Age 48.2 yearsDensity 133 (people per km²)

3.1 Population Size and Profile

3.1.1 The population of Stratford-on-Avon District was estimated to be 130,098 in mid-2019, representing an estimated increase of 2,518 or 2% on mid-20181. This increase was due to net internal migration to the District. As can be seen in Figure 1, this is the largest increase in population over the past eight years.

Figure 1

3.1.2

The area of Stratford-on-Avon District is 978 km², therefore population density mid-2019 was estimated to be 133 people per km². This places SDC as 73 rd least densely population district out of 408 authorities across the UK2.

3.1.3 The estimated population across each Ward within the District mid-2019 ranges from, 2,304 in Clopton Ward to 5,022 in Bridgetown Ward, with the average population per ward at 3,6143. Figure 2 shows the estimated changes to Ward populations over the past five years.

-30

459 526659

907

1,857

2,3782,518

mid-2012 mid-2013 mid-2014 mid-2015 mid-2016 mid-2017 mid-2018 mid-2019 -100

400

900

1,400

1,900

2,400

2,900Annual Population Change in Stratford-on-Avon District

Figure 2

Well

esbourn

e West

Welf

ord-on-Avo

n

Bidford East

Bridge

town

Bidford W

est &

Salford

South

am North

Kinwarton

Harbury

Kineton

Alceste

r & Rural

Alceste

r Town

Studley w

ith M

appleboro

ugh Green

Welc

ombe

Studley w

ith Sam

bourne

Bishopto

n

Brailes

& Compto

n

Guildhall

Shipsto

n South-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Estimated Population Change by Ward 2014-2019

3.1.4 Figure 3 shows the estimated demographic breakdown of the District population mid-2019. This shows clearly that the population is heavily weighted towards the older end of the scale. Over 65s make up just over 25% of the population, with 56% aged between 18-64 years, and 19% under 18 years old. There are significantly fewer children and younger adults living in the District compared to the West Midlands region and England as a whole4.

3.1.5 The median age of the District is 48.2 years, while the England median average age is 40 years. This places SDC at 47th oldest authority for median age population, out of 408 authorities across the UK, and third highest in the West Midlands after Malvern Hills District Council (50.8 years) and Staffordshire Moorlands (48.6 years). The oldest authority is North Norfolk, with a median age of 54.3 years.

3.1.6 The male to female ratio is roughly equal, with slightly more women aged 65 years and over than men.

Figure 3

3.1.7 Figure 4 shows the percentage of population of working age (aged between 18 and 64 years old) for each Ward. The Ward with the highest percentage of working age population is Avenue, with 65% aged 18-64 years. The lowest is Wootton Wawen, with 48%. Figure 5 shows the percentage of population in each Ward who are aged 65 years or over. The Ward with largest proportion of older people is Bridgetown with 38% aged 65 years+, while Bishop’s Itchington has the smallest number of older people at just 11% of the population.

Figure 4

Avenue

Bishop's

Itchington

Clopton

Napton & Fenny C

ompton

Ettington

Bidford West

& Salford

Bidford East

Red Horse

Studley with

Mappleborough G

reen

Southam North

Studley with

Sambourne

Shipston N

orth

Wellesb

ourne West

Kinwarton

Henley-in-A

rden

Brailes &

Compton

Welford-on-A

von

Tiddington0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

% Ward Population of Working Age (18-64 years)

Figure 5

Bridgetown

Brailes &

Compton

Red Horse

Hathaway

Welford-on-A

von

Studley with

Mappleborough G

reen

Shipston South

Bidford East

Harbury

Snitterfield

Alceste

r & Rural

Clopton

Alceste

r Town

Quinton

Long Itchington &

Stockton

Kineton

Ettington

Welcombe

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

% Ward Population Aged 65 years+

3.2 Population Projections

3.2.1 The projected population of England is expected to increase by 5% by mid-2028, with the increase for the West Midlands projected to be 6.1%, according to Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures.

3.2.2 The ONS figures show that the population of Stratford-on-Avon District is projected to increase by 14% in the same timescale, with an extra 17,810 people by mid-2028. By mid-2028, therefore, the population of Stratford-on-Avon District is estimated to be approximately 147,908.

3.2.3 This change is projected to be made up of mainly internal net migration inflow5. By 2043, just under 30% of the District population will be aged 65 years or over6.

4 Housing

4.1 Key factsHousing FactsNumber of households 61,623Median house price £315,000Owner occupied 72.9%Average household size 2.3Homeless and priority need 3.1%Number of new dwellings (2018-19) 1,408

4.2 Dwelling Numbers

4.2.1 According to the Valuation Office list, there were 61,623 properties in the District in 2020. Of these, the most common dwelling type is a detached house. The housing stock available does not follow the same pattern as Warwickshire or England, as seen in Figure 6: Stratford-on-Avon has more bungalows and detached houses than the Warwickshire or England average, and fewer flats/maisonettes, terraces and semi-detached dwellings.

Figure 6

4.3 House Prices

4.3.1 The median house price for the District was £315,000 in the year ending December 2019, well above the England median of £243,950 and the Warwickshire median of £255,0007.

4.3.2 The median house price in the District has risen £65,000 or 26% over five years since the year ending December 2014.

4.3.3 The lower quartile house price for the District in September 2019 was £240,000 (25% of houses were below this price, 75% above). This is higher than the lower quartile for England of £160,000, and that for Warwickshire of £183,000.

4.3.4 The tenth percentile price for the District was £180,000 (10% of houses were below this price, 90% above). This compares to the tenth percentile price of £110,000 for England and £138,000 for Warwickshire.

4.3.5 Figure 7 shows the median house prices for different house types within the District and the average for Warwickshire and England. The median detached and semi-detached prices are 26% higher than the England average, and 15% above the Warwickshire average. Terraced houses are 29% above the England average, and 24% above the Warwickshire average.

Figure 7

4.3.6 The median monthly rent payable in the District was £775, as seen in Figure 8. This was the second highest amount across the West Midlands, with only Warwick higher at £800.

Figure 8

Room

Studio

One Bedroom

Two Bedrooms

Three Bedrooms

Four or more Bedrooms

All categories

£0 £200 £400 £600 £800 £1,000 £1,200 £1,400

Median Monthly Rent

4.4 Ratio of House Prices to Earnings

4.4.1 The median house price to median earnings ratio in the District stood at 11.26 in 20198. This was the second highest ratio in the West Midlands region, with only Malvern Hills higher at 11.27. By comparison, the ratio for Warwickshire was 8.32 and that for England was 7.83.

4.4.2 The lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings ratio in the District was 11.82. This was the highest ratio for the entire West Midlands region. By comparison, the lower quartile house price to earnings ratio for Warwickshire was 8.29 and for England was 7.27.

4.4.3 Figure 9 below shows that the lower quartile price to earnings ratio grew faster than the median, meaning those in the lower income bracket were affected worse than those with median income by price rises.

Figure 9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Median and Lower Quartile House Price to Earnings Ratio

Median Lower Quartile

4.5 Housing Tenure and Occupancy

4.5.1 Approximately 1,129 dwellings are thought to be vacant across the District9. Of these, approximately 229 are owned by a Housing Association.

4.5.2 According to the ONS, in 2018, approximately 72% of dwellings in the District were owner-occupied, 16% were privately rented and 13% were socially rented.

4.5.3 Figure 10 shows the breakdown of dwellings within the District by Council Tax band. The District has fewer Band A and B properties than the Warwickshire or England average, but more higher-banded properties.

Figure 10

4.6 House Building

4.6.1 1,408 dwellings were added to the total number of dwellings in the District in the year ending March 201910. This represented 157.5% of the target for total new dwelling completions in 2018/19, 514 over target.

4.6.2 Figure 11 shows that the net number of new dwellings per annum in the District has risen continuously since 2013, after going through a decline in 2005-2012. The past four years have seen the total number of new dwellings completed exceeding targets by between 219 and 514 dwellings.

Figure 11

4.6.3 Figure 12 shows the net dwelling completions per settlement type over the past eight years. There has been a definite change over this time in where new dwellings are being built. While Stratford-upon-Avon saw the majority of new builds in 2011-14, for the past four years main rural centres and local service villages have seen the majority of new house building.

Figure 12

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/190%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Net completions by settlement type

Main Town Main Rural Centre Local Service VillagesLarge Rural Brownfield Sites Rural Villages Rural Elsewhere

4.6.4 Affordable housing has typically made up on average 29% of all new dwellings completed over the past seven years.

4.6.5 Figure 13 shows the size of new dwellings completed over the past eight years. In 2018/19, 2 and 3 bed homes made up nearly two thirds of completions, with 4+ beds accounting for a quarter. 1 bed homes made up less than 10% of the total. These proportions have remained pretty static over the past eight years.

Figure 13

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/190

50100150200250300350400450500

New Completions by Dwelling Size

1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4+ bed

5 Crime

5.1 Crime Rates

5.1.1 The total number of recorded crimes in the year to July 2020 was 7,54811 for Stratford District. This is a rate of 59 crimes per 1,000 people, which is the lowest rate across Warwickshire. This reflects a slight fall on last year, but is higher than the previous year.

5.1.2 The most prevalent crimes in the District were violent and sexual offences, with a rate of 20.5 per 1,000 people. This is lower than the same rate across Warwickshire (28.9) and England (29.1).

5.1.3 As Figure 14 shows, all other crimes were significantly lower in number, with the second most prevalent crime being other theft with a rate of 8.1 per 1,000 people. In comparison, the rate across Warwickshire as a whole for other theft was 6.9 per 1,000 people.

Figure 14

5.2 Types of Crime

5.2.1 The Wards towards the centre of Stratford-upon-Avon town saw the highest levels of violent and sexual crime.

5.2.2 The Wards with the highest levels of ‘other theft’ were Welcombe (24.53 per 1,000) and Guildhall (23.36 per 1,000).

5.2.3 Tanworth-in-Arden had the highest rate of burglary at 12.02 per 1,000.

5.2.4 Harbury had the highest vehicle crime rate at 17.14 per 1,000 people.

6 Employment and Qualifications

6.1 Employment

6.1.1 In March 2020 there were approximately 75,200 adults aged between 16 and 64 years12. Approximately 87.8% of these - 69,100 - were classed as ‘economically active’ in Stratford District.

6.1.2 86.2% of adults were in either full time or part time work in the District. This rate is higher than the Warwickshire average of 81.3% and the Great Britain average of 76.2%.

6.1.3 In March 2020, 71% of adults were classed as employees in the District, and 14.7% classed as self-employed.

6.1.4 In March 2020, 1,500 people were classed as unemployed in the District, representing 2.2% of the economically active population (i.e. those not in full time education, caring for dependents at home, long-term sick or retired). This figure will have risen greatly over the next six months.

6.1.5 In March 2020, 8,700 people were classed as economically inactive, representing approximately 12.2% of all 16-64 year olds. This is a much lower figure than the previous year, which saw 19.1% of all 16-64 year olds economically inactive, as Figure 15 shows. A similar drop in the number of economically inactive adults occurred between 2008 and 2010.

Figure 13

6.2 Unemployment Benefit Claims

6.2.1 In August 2020 there were 3,200 claiming unemployment benefits of some kind in Stratford District. 56% of these were men, 44% women. This represents 4.3% of the total population aged 16-64 years.

6.2.2 7% of all adults aged 18-21 years were claiming benefits and 6.8% of all those aged 18-24 years in the District.

6.2.3 By comparison, only 3.4% of all economically active adults aged 50 years or over were claiming benefits.

6.2.4 March to May 2020 saw a huge rise of 199% in the number of people claiming benefits. Adults aged between 18 and 24 years saw an increase in claimants of 231% (see separate section on the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic).

6.2.5 While seeing the largest increase in claimants of any authority in the West Midlands, Stratford-on-Avon District still remained comparatively low in terms of the proportion of working age adults claiming benefits.

6.3 Earnings

6.3.1 The median gross weekly earnings in 2019 for full time workers in the District was £642.50. This was higher than the average for the West Midlands at £550.80, and that for Great Britain at £587. This was only a 0.4% increase on the median weekly wage for 2018, while the West Midlands and Great Britain median wages have increased by 2.9%.

6.3.2 The weekly median for men was £681.30 while that for women was £544.40. Women’s weekly median pay is therefore 80% of men’s. By comparison, in 2018 men’s weekly median pay was £696 and women’s was £514. Therefore, men’s median gross weekly earnings have decreased by 2% while women’s have increased by 5.9%.

6.4 Qualifications

6.4.1 Stratford-on-Avon is the fifth most qualified authority within the West Midlands area with 46.6% of adults aged 16-64 years had NVQ4 qualification or higher (NVQ4 is equivalent to an HNC, NVQ6 is equivalent to an undergraduate degree, NVQ3 is equivalent to A Level.) The average for Great Britain is 40.3%, while for the West Midlands it is 34.1%. Warwick is the most qualified with 58.1% of adults holding an NVQ4 or higher qualification, followed by Stafford, Lichfield and Malvern Hills.

6.4.2 5.8% of working age adults have no qualifications at all. This compares to the Great Britain average of 7.7% and that across the West Midlands of 10.2%. This figure has fluctuated around an average of 6% over the past five years.

6.5 Employment by Industry

6.5.1 Manufacturing accounts for the largest number of jobs at 13,000. Nearly 20% jobs were within manufacturing, higher than the average for both Warwickshire (11.9%) and England (8.1%).

6.5.2 The second-highest industry for jobs to be in was wholesale and retail trade/repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, with 10,000 jobs.

6.5.3 Tourism related jobs are an important part of the District services sector. According to the 2019 Tourism Economic Impact Assessment, there were 8,963 tourism-related jobs in the District, equating to 6,511 full-time jobs. This equates to 15.6% of all employment in the District.

7 Business and Economy

7.1 Business Numbers13

7.1.1 In 2019, the number of businesses in the District stood at 8,450 enterprises. 90% of these were classed as micro-businesses (0-9 employees). There were 20 large businesses (over 250 employees).

7.1.2 The break-down of businesses by size reflected the averages for Warwickshire and England as a whole, as can be seen in the table below.

Stratford-on-Avon

Warwickshire England

Count % Count % Count %Large (250+) 20 0.2 130 0.5 9,250 0.4Medium (50-249) 100 1.2 380 1.4 36,500 1.5Small (10-49) 710 8.4 2,330 8.3 200,070 8.5Micro (0-9) 7,620 90.2 25,140 89.9 2,114,965 89.6Total 8,450 100 27,980 100 2,360,780 100

7.1.3 The business density ratio of 66 per 1,000 population is the highest density in the county and 50% higher than Warwickshire’s average.

7.1.4 There are 115 businesses per 1,000 working-age population in the District– 50% greater than Warwickshire.

7.1.5 In 2019, there were 107.3 business starts per 10,000 working-age residents, while there were 109.4 business deaths14. The proportion of businesses that survived between one and five years was similar to the average across Warwickshire and England as a whole.

7.2 Businesses by Industry

7.2.1 The largest number of businesses in the District were within the professional, scientific and technical services industry, at 1,720. This industry accounted for just over 20% of all businesses, a similar proportion to Warwickshire and slightly higher than the England average.

7.2.2 Construction accounted for 11% of all businesses, similar to the county and national average. Agriculture, forestry and fishing accounted for 9.4%, a higher proportion than either Warwickshire (5.4%) or England (4.2%).

8 Health

8.1 Overview

8.1.1 People in Stratford-on-Avon District are generally in better health compared to the England average15. Life expectancy within the District is 80.9 years for men and 84.7 years for women (2015-17 figures). This compared to the England average of 79.6 years for men and 83.1 years for women.

8.2 Disease, death and injury

8.2.1 Mortality rates for cardiovascular disease and cancer are much lower in the District than the West Midlands or England average rates16.

8.2.2 Dementia diagnosis rates are similarly in line with regional and national rates17.

8.2.3 The rate of those killed or seriously injured on the roads is significantly higher within the District than regional or national average, with 75.1 per 100,000 compared to the regional rate of 38.4 and the England rate of 40.8 per 100,00018.

8.2.4 Hospital admissions rates for alcohol-related conditions in the District were 671 per 100,000, higher than the England average of 664 per 100,000 but lower than the Warwickshire rate of 675 per 100,00019. The rate for women was 576 per 100,000 while that for men was 778 per 100,000. The rate for women is greater than both the Warwickshire and England average.

8.2.5 Emergency hospital admissions rates were significantly higher than the county or national average, at 319 per 100,000 compared to 248 in Warwickshire and 247 in England20. This was driven by a higher rate in the District for women.

8.2.6 Suicide rates were higher in the District than the county and England average. The rate for men was 18.4 per 100,000, compared to 16 in Warwickshire and 14.9 in England.

8.3 Health Inequalities

8.3.1 Life expectancy is 3.3 years lower for men and 4.4 years lower for women in the most deprived areas of the District.

8.4 Wellbeing

8.4.1 Life Satisfaction: Stratford-on-Avon District rated 47th out of 49 shire or mainly rural districts with an average rating of 7.55 out of 1021. By comparison, the shire average was 7.82 and the mainly rural authority average was 7.86. Over the past eight years, life satisfaction within the District saw a peak in 2016/17 and has been on a downward trajectory since.

8.4.2 ‘To what extent are the things you do in life worthwhile?’: the average for the District was 7.76 out of 10 (with 10 = completely worthwhile, 0= not at all worthwhile). This placed Stratford-on-Avon District 44th out of 49 shire or mainly rural authorities.

8.4.3 Anxiety : The mean score was lower than the shire/mainly rural authority average, at 2.74 out of 10.

8.4.4 Happiness : This was in line with shire/mainly rural averages, at 7.67 out of 10.

9 Deprivation and Poverty

9.1 Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019

9.1.1 The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is a huge national dataset, ranging across the domains of employment, income, health, crime, environment, education, and skills, and housing and access to services; these various domains are combined to create various composite indicators. The IMD for England provides measures of deprivation at various geographical levels. This was included in last years’ State of the District Report, but is such important data it is worth including again in this year’s report.

9.1.2 The IMD provides an overall measure of deprivation and rank for each of 32,844 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs). Stratford-on-Avon District is made up of 73 of these LSOAs.

9.1.3 In overall deprivation, one LSOA – Stratford Mount Pleasant East – was ranked in 2019 within 30% most deprived LSOAs in England. Three LSOAs were ranked within 40% most deprived LSOAs: Alcester North & Conway, Maybird (Stratford) and Henley East and Beaudesert.

9.1.4 Eight District LSOAs were ranked in the 10% least deprived LSOAs in England.

9.1.5 Stratford-on-Avon District was ranked against the other 317 English local authorities for each index of deprivation. The lowest ranking was for barriers to housing, with the District ranked 70th most deprived out of 317 authorities in England. Across the District there was a fair amount variation between LSOAs in individual indices.

9.1.6 In terms of income deprivation, Alcester East & Island was ranked within 30% most deprived LSOAs, while eight LSOAs were ranked in top 10% least deprived, while eight LSOAs were ranked in top 10% least deprived.

9.1.7 In terms of employment, Stratford Mount Pleasant East was ranked in 20% most deprived LSOAs, with Alcester North and Conway ranked in 30% most deprived, while 13 LSOAs were ranked in top 10% least deprived.

9.1.8 In terms of education, skills and training, Alcester North and Conway and Studley South were ranked within 20% most deprived LSOAs, while 12 LSOAs were ranked in top 10% least deprived.

9.1.9 12 LSOAs were ranked in the worst 10% for barriers to housing deprivation. Just under half LSOAs (45%) were ranked in the highest 30% most deprived LSOAs for barriers to housing.

9.1.10 LSOAs were ranked in the worst 10% for living environment deprivation. 30% of all District LSOAs were ranked in the bottom 30% worst deprived LSOAs for living environment.

9.2 Fuel Poverty

9.2.1 Fuel poverty in England is measured using the Low Income High Costs indicator, which considers a household to be fuel-poor if:

o they have required fuel costs that are above average (the national median level);

o were they to spend that amount, they would be left with a residual income below the official poverty line.

9.2.2 10.2% of households in the District were in fuel poverty according to the latest data for 2018, compared to 9.5% in Warwickshire and 11.4% in the West Midlands.

9.2.3 There was variation across the District in the proportion of households in fuel poverty, ranging from 15.4% households in Deppers Bridge, Chester & Kings LSOA and 14.9% in Brailes, to 4.7% in Wellesbourne South.

10 Covid-19 Pandemic

10.1 Overview

10.1.1 The worldwide coronavirus pandemic and subsequent national lockdown on 20th March 2020 has already had a hard-hitting impact on the District’s population and economy.

10.1.2 As the pandemic continues with no sign of ending, the fall-out will continue to have a short and medium-term effect on the District, with longer-term effects being, as yet, unforeseeable.

10.1.3 The initial forecasts were that the UK economy would see a hard and fast knock in 2020, but with a quick recovery back to original levels in 2021.22

10.1.4 While the summer easing of lockdown saw a greater optimism about the impacts, the ‘second-wave’ now seemingly underway looks set to return the UK to a difficult time both economically and health-wise.

10.1.5 There are also concerns that the impacts of the pandemic will be felt disproportionately by women and individuals who are young, lower-paid, black, in self-employment, those who have low education levels or those who live in large families23.

10.2 Impact on the District’s Economy

10.2.1 Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the increase in the value of the economy due to the production of goods and services. Stratford-on-Avon District was estimated to have the greatest decline in GVA of all local authorities in the West Midlands in quarter 2 of this year24 (see Figure 16). GVA decline was estimated to be 46%, or £2.156 billion in total across different industries.

10.2.2 This was largely due to the District economy being manufacturing-heavy. Manufacturing was estimated to decline across UK by 55%, with a decline in GVA for the District of £1.090 billion.

Figure 16

10.2.3 Creative industries have also been heavily impacted upon by the pandemic. The District is expected to see the largest drop in Creative Industries GVA of all districts across Coventry and Warwickshire, of approximately 49%. This is due to the focus on performing arts and also the computer consultancy and programming sector25.

10.2.4 Tourism has been hit heavily by the pandemic. Tourism-related GVA is expected to see a decline of 72% from £250m to £70m. Impacted industries across tourism would include accommodation, wholesale and retail, and food and drink.

10.2.5 While the UK government have put in place measures to help these industries such as the ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme and a VAT reduction for the Hospitality and Tourism industry from 20% to 5% until January 2021, it is not clear if these have been or will be successful in increasing business. The Eat Out scheme has been widely criticised within the food and drink industry as simply moving customers from the weekend to early week, not enticing new customers.

10.2.6 Price Waterhouse Cooper have estimated that the hotel industry nationally will see a 65% drop in GVA this year, with a potential growth of 4% in 2021 given a scenario where the pandemic continues to spread (see Figure 17 for

the national picture). The food service industry is expected to see a 48% drop this year, with a potential growth of 6% next year. They foresee a drop of 33% GVA for the leisure and arts industry.

10.2.7 A survey of UK businesses by the Office for National Statistics in September 2020 showed that the accommodation and food service industries reported the highest percentage of businesses reporting a severe to moderate risk of insolvency, with 23% businesses stating this compared with 11% across all industries.

10.2.8 The same report showed that art, entertainment and recreation industries were far more likely to say that operating costs had exceeded turnover. Only 79% UK arts, entertainment and recreation businesses were currently trading in September 2020. In light of the recent increases in the number of Covid-19 cases, it is likely that the economic outlook will worsen.

Figure 17

10.3 Impact on Key Businesses/Organisations in Stratford District

RSC: All 2020 Stratford-upon-Avon performances have been postponed until 2021; RSC Barbican residency cancelled; Matilda the Musical has been closed until 2021. Some employment contracts have been terminated, 90% staff furloughed.

Shakespeare Birthplace Trust: Shakespeare’s Birthplace s reopened on 1st

August 2020, but all other properties owned by the Trust remain closed until 2021, as well as the Shakespeare Centre. They are estimating 90% fall in income this year.

Jaguar Land Rover: The two brands reported a drop in sales of 42% from April to June, with a loss before tax of £413m. This is on top of a loss of £422m in the previous financial year. JLR are already part-way through a programme of job losses.

Codemasters: The games industry is relatively cushioned from the effects of the pandemic, and has continued to be a growth area for the economy.

10.4 Impact on Jobs

10.4.1 Many Stratford-on-Avon District industries were hugely impacted by the national lockdown and subsequently closed their businesses, including manufacturing, accommodation, food and drink and retail. It was estimated that 15,500 jobs (23% of all employment) would be taken from the local economy due to the lockdown.

10.4.2 While it was suggested that most of these jobs would be furloughed, there was a concern that they could be lost permanently after the furlough scheme ended.

10.4.3 SDC saw the largest percentage rise in the number of claimants (JSA or Universal Credit) across Warwickshire, with a rise of 112%. The number claiming in March was 1,050, which rose to 2,230 in April. By August 2020, the number of claimants had risen to 3,200. This represented a total rise of 205%.

10.4.4 A report on the impacts of Covid-19 on the employment and labour market by the office for National Statistics in July 2020 highlighted a falling demand for labour, particularly in the wholesale and retail, accommodation, food service and arts, entertainment and recreation industries.

10.5 Social Impact

10.5.1 The number of claimants of Job Seekers’ Allowance or Universal Credit has risen steadily over the pandemic period, rising 205% from 1,050 in March 2020 to 3,200 in August. This is the largest rise of any authority in the West Midlands. The number of adults aged 18–24 years claiming rose 247%, from 160 to 560 in July 2020. Claimant numbers are at the highest levels seen since the mid-1990s.

10.5.2 Whilst claimant numbers in percentage terms have risen dramatically, Stratford-on-Avon is still one of the lowest authorities for claimants as a percentage of the working-age population, with just 4.3% those aged 16-64 years claiming.

10.5.3 The number of homeless applications rose steadily between April and July, from 50-75. It then fell back in August to 54. This is a similar pattern seen across the past two years. However, now that the legal stop on evictions has been lifted on 20th September, these figures may yet increase.

10.6 Impact on Stratford DC - car parks & leisure centres

10.6.1 Car park revenue from 8th June to 27th September was £663,325.60. The comparable 2019 figure was £905,257.75. This represents a fall in 2020 over the same summer period of £241,932 or 27%.

10.6.2 Weekly car park revenue was down by 55% on average over June, down by 35% on average in July, and 18% in August.

10.6.3 All SDC leisure centres were closed on 20th March 2020, and re-opened on 25th

July (except Studley which re-opened 1st August). Since re-opening, leisure centres have seen an average drop in the number of visits of 75.5% on last year. Stratford leisure centre has seen the largest percentage drop in visits, with 79% fewer than 2019.

10.7 Actions taken by Stratford DC

10.7.1 SDC has administered the Small Business Grant Fund, the Retail, Hospitality and Leisure Grants Funds and the Discretionary Grants Fund. By 5th August, £33.5m had be paid to 2,854 businesses across the District.

10.7.2 SDC set up the Community Shielding Hub alongside partners to deliver supplies to the most vulnerable people in the District. By its closure in July, 1,300 food parcels had been delivered with the service operating five days a week including Bank Holidays until mid-June. Alongside food deliveries, staff also made welfare calls to residents.

11 Residents’ Survey 2019

11.1 The Stratford-on-Avon District Council Residents’ Survey 2019 was undertaken in the autumn of 2019 with 1,804 responses and some key findings were as follows.

11.1 48% of residents felt SDC offered value for money.

11.2 65% felt that SDC were making the local area a better place to live.

11.3 Affordable housing, traffic congestion and level of crime were the three most important priorities which were most in need of improvement.

11.4 34% of residents felt that they could influence decisions affecting their local area.

11.5 Residents were most satisfied with refuse collection (90%) and least satisfied with the way SDC develops planning policy (17%).

11.6 A summary of the key data mentioned in the previous section is highlighted in the appended infographic (Appendix 2).

12 Achievements/Key Events during 2019/20

12.1 A key achievement during 2019/20 was the development of the Vision for the Council until 2030 and the new Council Plan for the period 2019 to 2023. This plan replaces the previous Corporate Strategy 2015 to 2019, these documents provide the high level priorities and objectives for the Council and are supplemented by annual action plans and performance indicators.

12.2 The Council Plan was approved by the meeting of Council in October 2019 and followed engagement with all councillors, staff, residents, businesses and other stakeholders from across the District and Council. In establishing the Council Plan for the period up to 2023, a longer term view on the vision of the Council to 2030 was also approved. This was to ensure that the aspirations for the next four years are in line with the longer term aspirations. A summary of the Vision to 2030 and the Council Plan is shown below.

12.3 Stratford-on-Avon District Council Vision

We are ambitious for the future of the District as an excellent place to live, work, learn, visit and invest.

The plan sets out our vision for Stratford-on-Avon District as a place in 2030 and for local government in 2030.The core of the plan is a set of ambitions and actions for the Council over the next four years under five key objectives:

Working on regional, national and international stages Responding to the climate emergency Enhancing the quality of Stratford-on-Avon as place Nurturing a thriving, innovative and inclusive economy Putting residents and communities centre stage

The draft vision and plan was the subject of public consultation in summer 2019 and the content was informed by two workshops with the Council's key local partners.We look forward working with residents, local communities and our partners to deliver our ambitions for 2023 in the context of our longer-term vision for the District.

Stratford-on-Avon District Council 2030 Vision

In 2030 we want Stratford-on-Avon District to….

…be well-known internationally for the culture, heritage and countryside across the District, and for the quality of its visitor experience, as well as for being Shakespeare's birthplace.…have used its international reputation to support and sustain the development of future technologies and innovative businesses of all sizes. …be one of the UK's first carbon-neutral Districts supporting zero-carbon innovation, technology and construction and be at the forefront of climate change adaptation.…benefit from the most advanced connectivity and accessibility across the District (including the best possible communications infrastructure) and an integrated transport system with excellent links to Birmingham, Oxford and London. …enable all its residents to live safe and healthy lives, work, raise children and grow old in an excellent District for leisure, education and sport…have high quality, appropriate and affordable housing across the District.In 2030 we want local government in Stratford-on-Avon to….

…put residents and communities across the District at the heart of what it does: providing high quality services in innovative ways, seizing opportunities and addressing challenges facing the District. …have achieved long-term financial sustainability.…make better use of technology to underpin new ways of working and new relationships with residents, businesses and local institutions. …drive partnerships across all sectors and deliver seamless services with its local government partners.

12.4 Stratford-on-Avon District Council Plan 2019-23

Working on regional, national and international stages

We will promote Stratford-on-Avon externally and use our relationships and reputation to help deliver our vision for 2030 and our ambitions for 2023.Enhancing the quality Stratford-on-Avon as a place

We will use our roles and powers, an ever-closer relationship with Warwickshire County Council and effective collaboration with other partners to enable us to ensure that Stratford-on-Avon is an excellent place to live, work, learn, visit and invest. Nurturing a thriving, innovative and inclusive economy

We will work with the Warwickshire Local Enterprise Partnership, West Midlands Combined Authority and Midlands Engine to support our local economy.Responding to the climate emergency

We will do all we can locally to contribute to national carbon reduction targets, fulfil our aim to becoming a carbon-neutral District by 2030 and support measures to adapt to the impact of climate change.Putting residents and communities centre stage

We will listen to and engage with residents and communities, use what we hear to shape what we do, and communicate the results.In order to deliver this, we will become a more agile and resilient Council

12.5 At the meeting of Council held on 24 February 2020, the budget was set for 2020/21. Due to the impact to government of BREXIT there was no spending review undertaken during 2019/20, the government instead carried forward into 2020/21 the settlement to authorities that was provided in the previous year. It is interesting to note that the spending review has now been further delayed due to the impact of the COVID pandemic. It is now expected that the Comprehensive Spending Review will be undertaken during 2021 and this should provide estimated level of support for the next four years.

12.6 There were a number of challenges that the Council faced during 2019/20, including the allegation that the Council was a sexist organisation. These were very serious allegations and as such were fully reviewed by external investigators. The investigators concluded, that it would be “unfair to brand the Council as having a sexist culture”. However, this review did find that two Councillors had breached the Councillor Code of Conduct, and the necessary sanctions were issued. It is extremely pleasing to note that there have been no further allegations made of inappropriate behaviour. In addition, Recommendations were made to the Council which would further strengthen the culture of the organisation, including training for all staff and Councillors which has now been delivered.

12.7 All of the recommendations have been implemented and a “Respect” group formed with representation from elected members and staff which continues to seek improvements in this area.

12.8 Significant progress was made during 2019/20 on taking forward the digital transformation of the Council with resources being made available within the 2020/21 budget for the full implementation of MS365 including MS Teams. This investment was approved in order to implement the findings of the “Ways of Working” project, this investment has already been proven to be invaluable given the impact of COVID on the organisation and had enabled well over 200 staff to work from home effectively during the pandemic. Further improvements and enhancements are currently being implemented and should be completed by the end of November 2020.

12.9 The Council reviewed its Management Structure during 2019/20 following the departure of an Executive Director in May 2019. The new structure reverting to the appointment of a Chief Executive and Deputy Chief Executive was approved by Council in October 2019. The further appointment of the Head of Community and Operational Services was made in February 2020, however, due in the main to the impact of COVID the appointment of the final post Head of Resources and Transformation was delayed. Given that the Council is working much closer with Warwick District Council shared appointments covering this role across the two authorities are being implemented.

12.10 The Council is responsible for ensuring that its business is conducted in accordance with the law and proper standards, that public money is safeguarded and properly accounted for, and used economically, efficiently and effectively.

12.11 The Council also has a duty under the Local Government Act 1999 to make arrangements to secure continuous improvements in the way in which its functions are exercised, having regard to a combination of economy, efficiency and effectiveness.

12.12 The Annual Government Statement identifies the framework that comprises the systems, processes, culture and values, by which the Council is directed and controlled and its activities through which it accounts to, engages with and leads the community. It enables the Council to monitor the achievement of its strategic priorities and to consider whether those priorities have led to the delivery of appropriate, cost-effective services.

12.13 The roles and responsibilities of the executive, non-executive, scrutiny and officer functions, along with the delegations from The Cabinet and the Council are set out in the Constitution. In addition, there are member role profiles and an officer/member protocol that sets out the respective responsibilities and relationships of officers and members. The Constitution is kept under regular review, overseen by the Audit and Standards Committee and the document is fully reviewed every three years. A revised Leader’s Statement has been developed which summarises all of the executive delegations which are currently in place.

12.14 A risk management framework is reviewed annually which is supported by the County Council. The provision of such advice is now built into the service level agreement for audit services. Operational risks form part of the service plans, and high level risks are identified in the strategic risk register, which is periodically reviewed by the Management Team.

12.15 The Council has received a number of accolades from April 2019 to March 2020, showing it to be a high-performing Council. Achievements include the following:-

SDC’s CCTV system received British Standard Accreditation and the Surveillance Camera Commissioner’s Code.

The Peony Pavilion in Firs Garden was officially opened in April 2019. SDC declared a Climate Emergency in July 2019. Stage Seven of the OVO Energy Tour of Britain culminated in a hill-top

finish at Burton Dassett Country Park. SDC hosted a free EU Citizens’ Rights Awareness events in Alcester,

Bidford, Wellesbourne and Southam. Stratford-on-Avon District Community Sports Awards were held in

partnership with Everyone Active and hosted by Iwan Thomas MBE. New Electric Hybrid Hackney Carriage for Stratford District SDC hosted a County Lines drugs summit with partner agencies. SDC invested £796,000 in major CCTV upgrade for the District, the first

major CCTV technology investment since 2008. SDC took ownership of Greig Hall site and Greig Leisure Centre

reopened to the public following phase I of refurbishment plans SDC and partners hosted a Stratford Dementia Friendly town

information event SDC secured up to £201,000 in funding from the Ministry of Housing,

Communities and Local Government to support initiatives designed to help reduce and eliminate rough sleeping in the District.

SDC’s new self-service solution for residents and businesses received its first 1,000 hits.

Operational changes had to be made to SDC services due to start of COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, but were quickly and efficiently adopted.

13 Key Issues and Targets The final year of the Council’s Corporate Strategy has been completed (following position is as at 31 March 2020):13.1 Objective 1 – A flourishing local economy

To positively embrace the Local Enterprise Partnership to influence its plans, priorities and impact upon our District and maximise the use of national funding opportunities such as the City Deal and Regional Growth Fund to boost business opportunities in our area.

Work with our partners to ensure that new development provides the necessary schools and transport infrastructure for local residents, especially the working population.

To encourage new small businesses throughout the District through focussed initiatives, such as the provision of business incubation units.

Maximise the benefit of the local tourism industry including support for the local Destination Management Organisation, Shakespeare’s England.

To support further development of the Broadband infrastructure across our District which will assist businesses with the connections they require.

Progress 2019/20: Henley Street works completed Call for bids for the use of Community Infrastructure Levy completed by

February 2020. SDC full members of the Stratforward Board and represented on CCTAG

Board Unsuccessful in Future High Streets Fund application to support Studley

Not able to submit joint bid with Parishes to the Local Full Fibre Network (no information released due to Covid pandemic)

13.2 Objective 2 – People and their Environment Facilitate the delivery of housing targets including working with

developers to identify suitable land and locations for developments and ensuring 35% affordable housing provision.

Maintain quality leisure facilities District wide, with particular emphasis on enhancing facilities in Alcester.

Promote Health and Wellbeing including playing an active role in the Warwickshire Health and Wellbeing Board.

Ensure the Crime & Disorder reduction strategy actions are delivered. Minimise the amount of waste going into landfill. Identify long term solutions to particular sites throughout the District

which are detrimental to the local community.

Progress 2019/20: Climate Change SPD adopted Phase 1 works started on Long Marston Airfield Garden Village Grieg Centre under SDC possession and refurbished SWHWBP and Healthy Citizens Forum established Rural Crime Grant achieved CCTV upgrade ongoing Recycling contamination rate fall to 9.66% WCC Health and Wellbeing Strategy not completed, so no action plan for

SDC as yet No suitable use for Former Medical Centre in Studley established yet

13.3 Objective 3 – Responsible Community Leadership Seek opportunities to work with our partners to achieve benefits for our

residents. Expand our programme of sharing services with other Councils. Ensuring that we manage our assets to meet the needs of our

communities and services and where appropriate delivering commercial returns.

Supporting vulnerable people especially those becoming homeless, those adjusting to benefit changes and those needing supported accommodation.

Work with our partners to improve the District’s infrastructure including broadband, transportation, education, utilities and emergency services.

Identify opportunities to improve access to local services, especially for those in remote communities.

Speak up for residents locally and nationally so that local communities are in a better position to help themselves.

Progress 2019/20:

Revised Corporate Strategy 2019-23 approved Ways of Working and Collaborate Projects in progress Housing Investment Panel established Draft Rough Sleeper Strategy developed and Rough Sleeper Co-ordinator

in post Vision 2050 not yet developed Elizabeth House refurbishment on hold New TLC system for Land Charges not complete Bed & Breakfast use as accommodation for homeless households still

ongoing due to Covid-19 pandemic emergency measures Roll out of Customer Access Terminals into new rural areas not complete

13.4 As reported earlier, one of the major challenges for the Council is its long-term financial sustainability when faced with reductions in Government support. The Council is currently a member of the Coventry and Warwickshire Business Rate Pool which should provide additional financial resilience to the Council. The Council implemented a revised Council Tax Reduction Scheme in 2017/18 and this will be maintained in 2021/22.

13.5 It is inevitable that during the next few years, further significant reductions in costs will need to be delivered. The Council will continue to work with Warwick District Council with a view of sharing services and saving resources to ensure that as many services as possible are preserved. In addition, there is an expectation that a White Paper in relation to future devolution will be published that potentially could lead to a wider debate surrounding local government review.

13.6 The Council continues in its role as a Non-Constituent Member (NCM) of the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA). The Council has been warmly welcomed into this group and is helping to influence the future direction and focus of the Combined Authority. We are working closely with the Mayor to ensure that the interests of the Council and fellow NCMs are taken in to account.

13.7 With reducing budgets, priorities will have to be decided and the Council will have to remain resolute about those, targeting areas of highest need. The actions are set out within the overall Council Plan as agreed high-level actions.

13.8 There will be continued support and development of the Council’s overview and scrutiny function and this will be maintained through training and development and by focusing the work of the Committees on areas which will assist the Council in achieving its overall objectives, along with the support from our Overview and Scrutiny Support Officer.

13.9 The Council will continue to work closely with the District’s communities, enhancing their engagement and opportunities for involvement in Council decision-making. The Council’s Community Engagement Plan covers the period 2020 to 2023.

14 Options available to the Council14.1 To debate the analysis of the past events and comment on the future

proposals.

15 Evidence Base15.1 The evidence base is formulated from surveys undertaken in the past twelve

months, plus insight from various sources. 16 Members’ Comments16.1 Comments from the Leader of the Council are contained within this report.17 Implications of the Proposal17.1 Legal/Human Rights Implications17.1.1 There are no direct implications arising from this report.17.2 Financial17.2.1 There are no direct implications arising from this report.17.3 Environmental/Climate Change Implications17.3.1 There are no environmental or climate change implications arising from this

report.17.4 Council Plan17.4.1 There are no direct implications arising from this report.17.5 Analysis of the effects on Equality17.5.1 There are no direct implications arising from this report.17.6 Data Protection17.6.1 There are no direct implications arising from this report.

18 Risk AssessmentThe evidence provided in this report, either through customer insight or public opinion, must be taken into account in the decision-making processes, when setting the budget and formulating strategy/policies. This report has therefore been produced to support and inform local decision-making and the setting of priorities.19 ConclusionThe report outlines the past year’s actions and future proposals for 2010/21.

Councillor Tony JeffersonLEADER OF THE COUNCIL

Background papers: None.

Information Sources

1 Office for National Statistics. Population Estimates for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-year 2019, using April 2020 local authority district codes

2 Ibid. 3 Office for National Statistics. Mid-2019 Population Estimates for 2019 Wards in England and

Wales by Single Year of Age and Sex – Experimental Statistics4 LGInform. LGA Research Report: Demographic Indicators for Stratford-on-Avon for Recovery

and Renewal Panel.5 Office of National Statistics. Subnational population projections for England: 2018-based.6 Ibid.7 Office for National Statistics. Median House Prices for administrative geographies: HPSSA

dataset 98 Office For national Statistics. House prices to workplace earnings ratio 20209 InstantAtlas Warwickshire. https://data.warwickshire.gov.uk/10 Ibid11 Ibid12 Nomisweb.co.uk13 NOMIS economy and employment report14 Warwickshire Economics Stratford-on-Avon Economic Performance Indicators 201915 Public Health England. Local Authority Health Profile 201916 Ibid17 Ibid18 Ibid19 InstantAtlas Warwickshire. Health and Social Care Report 201920 Ibid21 Office for National Statistics. Analysis of the Annual Population Survey 201922 Bank of England Monetary Policy Report & Interim Financial Stability Report May 202023 London School of Economics and Political Science. Covid-19 recession is having a

disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable.24 WMREDI. West Midlands Weekly Economic Impact Monitor.25 Warwickshire Insight. Weekly Business and Economics Update May 2020