Census 2011 Briefing PaperChild PovertyDate of Publication 22 January 2014

Published by Policy, Research and Engagement

o

1.0 Introduction

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) conducted the latest Census on 27 March, 2011. It is estimated that 92% of people in Derby responded to the Census.

Page | 1

Key FindingsIn Derby:

In 2010, 24.0% of children are living in poverty.

In 2012, 19.0% of children receive free school meals

In the period 2009/10, 12.0% of young people from low income backgrounds

progressed to Higher Education

In the period 2010/11, 17.8% of low income families took up formal childcare

In the fourth quarter of 2012 there were 21 households living in temporary

accommodation

In 2011, 8.8% of all live births had low birth weights

In the period 2009 to 2010, the overall absence rate for free school meal pupils in

all schools was 8.5%

In the period 2010 to 2011 the overall absence rates for all pupils in all schools

was 5.9%

In the period 2010/11, 64.2% of pupils in receipt of free school meals achieved 5

or more GCSE grades A* to C

In the period 2010/11, 9.7% of children in school reception year were identified as

obese

Page | 2

2.0 Proportion of Children in Poverty

In 2010 the proportion of children in Derby living in poverty was 24.0% this was greater than both the East Midlands (18.7%), and England (20.6%).

Table 2.0.1 – Children in poverty2009 2010

%Derby 24.6 24.0East Midlands 19.1 18.7England 21.3 20.6Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

3.0 Percentage of Pupils Receiving Free School Meals

In Derby, the proportion of pupils in receipt of free school meals in 2012 was 19.0% this was greater than both the East Midlands rate of 14.6% and England with 16.9%.

Table 3.0.1 - Percentage of Pupils Receiving Free School Meals

2011 2012%

Derby 18.5 19.0East Midlands 14.0 14.6England 16.8 16.9Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

4.0 Achievement Gap Between Pupils Eligible for Free School Meals and their Peers Achieving the Expected Levels at Key Stage 2

The achievement gap in Derby in 2010 was 24.0% this was lower than the 2006 gap of 25.0%. The East Midlands had the same achievement gap as Derby in 2010 but England was significantly lower than the Derby proportion with 21.0%.

Table 4.0.1 – Achievement gap2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%Derby 25.0 25.0 23.0 24.0 24.0East Midlands 27.3 25.8 23.9 23.0 24.0England 25.1 23.9 22.3 22.0 21.0Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

25.0

25.0

23.0 24

.0

24.0

27.3

25.8

23.9

23.0 24

.025.1

23.9

22.3

22.0

21.0

Figure 4.0.1 - Achievement gap between pupils eligible for free school meals and their peers achieving the expected levels at

Key Stage 2, 2006 to 2010

Derby East Midlands EnglandPercentage

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

5.0 Young People from Low Income Backgrounds Progressing to Higher Education

The proportion of young people from low income backgrounds in Derby progressing to higher education in 2009/10 was 12.0%; this is significantly lower than the England average of 18.0%. There is no comparator data available for the East Midlands.

Table 5.0.1 – Young People from Low Income Backgrounds Progressing to Higher Education

2008/09 2009/10%

Derby 19.0 12.0East Midlands NA NAEngland 17.0 18.0Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 4

6.0 Take up of Formal Childcare by Low Income Working Families

The rate of take-up of formal childcare in Derby by low income working families in 2010/11 was 17.8%. This was higher than both the East Midlands (17.4%) and England (16.8%).

Table 6.0.1 – Take up of formal childcare by low income families

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11%

Derby 18.3 18.0 18.4 17.8East Midlands .. .. 18.0 17.4England 17.8 18.0 17.6 16.8Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

7.0 Proportion of Working Age People Claiming Out-of-work Benefits in the Worst Performing Neighbourhoods

Between Quarter 2 2008 and Quarter 1 2011 Derby has consistently had lower levels of working age people claiming out of work benefits in the worst performing neighbourhoods than both the East Midlands and England.

In Derby, the proportion of working age people claiming out of work benefits in the worst performing neighbourhoods in Quarter 2 2011 was 29.5%. In the same quarter Derby’s results were greater than the East Midlands (29.4%) but less than the England average proportion of 30.4%.

Table 7.0.1 - Working age people claiming out of work benefits in the worst performing neighbourhoods

Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009%

Derby 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.8 28.6 29.4 30.0East Midlands 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.7 29.3 29.9 30.4England 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.7 30.3 30.9 31.2Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 5

Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

26.8 26.7 27.027.8

28.629.4

30 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.528.0 27.9 28.1

28.729.3

29.930.4 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.429.2 29.1 29.2

29.730.3

30.9 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.4

Figure 7.0.1 - Working age people claiming out of work benefits in the worst performing neighbourhoods

Derby East Midlands EnglandPercentage

Page | 6

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Table 7.0.1 - Continued - Working age people claiming out of work benefits in the worst performing neighbourhoods

Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011%

Derby 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.5East Midlands 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.4England 31.3 31.2 31.0 30.7 30.5 30.4Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

8.0 Number of Households Living in Temporary Accommodation

The number of households living in temporary accommodation shows significant fluctuation over time. In Derby, there were 21 households living in temporary accommodation in quarter four of 2012. In previous years the numbers of households living in temporary accommodation in the fourth quarter were, 2011 (17), 2010 (29), 2009 (33).

Table 8.0.1 – Households living in temporary accommodationQ4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

NumberDerby 33.0 30.0 34.0 36.0 29.0 28.0 19.0East Midlands 690.0 680.0 710.0 760.0 670.0 680.0 740.0England 53,370 51,310 50,400 49,680 48,010 48,240 48,330Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Table 8.0.1 Continued – Households living in temporary accommodationQ3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012

NumberDerby 26.0 17.0 31.0 29.0 29.0 21.0East Midlands 720.0 710.0 740.0 .. .. ..England 49,100 48,920 50,430 51,640 52,960 53,130Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 7

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

33.030.0

34.036.0

29.0 28.0

19.0

26.0

17.0

31.029.0 29.0

21.0

Figure 8.0.1 - Households living in temporary accommodation in Derby, Quarter four 2009 to Quarter four 2012

Count

9.0 Proportion of Local Authority Homes that are Non-decent

The proportion of local authority homes in Derby that are non-decent in 2010/2011 was 0.0%. This was significantly less than the East Midlands region (16.9%) and England (12.6%). Derby local authority stock has had a 0.0% non-decency result since 2007 / 2008.

During the period 2003 to 2011 Derby’s local authority housing stock has consistently had non-decency levels lower than the region and England. The highest non-decency level produced by Derby was 23.5% in 2003 / 2004.

Table 9.0.1 – Proportion of local authority homes that are non-decent

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07%

Derby 23.5 5.7 1.5 1.4East Midlands 31.1 27.9 26.4 22.1England 44.4 41.0 35.8 31.1Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Table 9.0.1 Continued – Proportion of local authority homes that are non-decent

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11%

Derby 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0East Midlands 22.3 20.4 18.4 16.9England 26.4 22.0 16.4 12.6Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 8

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

23.55.7 1.5 1.4 0 0 0 0

31.1

27.926.4 22.1 22.3 20.4 18.4 16.9

44.4

41.035.8

31.1 26.422.0

16.4 12.6

Figure 9.1 - Local authority homes that are non-decent, 2003/04 to 2010/11

England East Midlands DerbyPercentage

10.0 Low Birth weight Live Birth Babies

The proportion of live birth with low birth weight, in Derby, in 2011, was 8.8%. This percentage is significantly higher than in both the region (7.2%) or 1.6% higher and nationally (7.0%) or 1.8% higher.

The 2011 low birth weight figure of 8.8% shows a 0.2% decrease on the 2010 figure of 9.0%. Between 2003 and 2011 Derby has had significantly higher results than both the region and England. The highest results produced by Derby during this period were in 2004 (9.7%) and the lowest were in 2007 and 2008 (8.3%).

Table 10.0.1 – Proportion of live births with low birth weight2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%Derby 9.1 9.7 8.7 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.7 9.0 8.8East Midlands

7.8 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.2

England 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.0Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 9

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

9.1 9.7 8.7 8.6 8.3 8.3 8.7 9.0 8.8

7.8 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.27.7 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.0

Figure 10.0.1 - Proportion of live low birth weight babies, 2003 to 2011

Derby East Midlands EnglandPercentage of all live births

11.0 Overall Absence Rates For Free School Meal Pupils in All Schools

In Derby, the overall absence rate for free school meal pupils in 2009 to 2010 was 8.5%. For the same period, The East Midlands (8.9%) and England (8.6%) had marginally higher results than Derby.

Table 11.0.1 - Overall absence for free school meal pupils in all schools2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

%Derby 9.1 8.8 8.5East Midlands 9.3 9.3 8.9England 9.1 9.1 8.6Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

11.1 Overall Absence Rates For All Pupils in All Schools

In Derby, the overall absence rate for all pupils in 2010 to 2011 was 5.9%. This was marginally higher than both the region (5.8%) and England (5.7%). The rates for all comparator areas vary little during the period 2008 to 2011 and all results are very similar.

Table 11.1.1 - Overall absence for all pupils in all schools2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

%Derby 6.1 6.1 5.9East Midlands 6.3 5.9 5.8England 6.3 6.0 5.7Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 10

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

11.2 Percentage of 15-Year-Old Free School Meal Pupils Achieving 5 or more GCSE grades A* to C

In the period 2006 to 2011 all three comparator areas show annual increases in the rate of 15-year-old free school meal pupils achieving 5 or more GCSE grades A* to C.

Apart from the period 2007 to 2008 the growth increments in the numbers of free school dinner pupils achieving 5 or more A* to C grades have been greatest in Derby.

Derby has consistently produced higher rates than the region during the period 2006 to 2011 but is consistently lower than the national rate.

In Derby, the percentage achieving 5 or more A* to C grades at GCSE in 2010/11 was 64.2%. This was significantly higher than the region (58.3%) but marginally lower than England (64.6%).

Table 11.2.1 – 15-year-old free school meal pupils achieving 5+ GCSE grades A* to C

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11%

Derby 32.4 39.5 44.6 55.5 64.2East Midlands 29.5 34.3 42.5 51.7 58.3England 36.1 41.0 48.9 58.6 64.6Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/2011

29.5 34.3 42.551.7 58.332.4

39.544.6

55.564.2

36.141.0

48.9

58.664.6

Figure 11.2.1 - 15-year-old free school meal pupils achieving 5 plus GCSE grades A* to C

England Derby East MidlandsPercentage

Page | 11

Source: Office of National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

11.3 Percentage of all 15-Year-Old Pupils Achieving 5 or more GCSE grades A* to C

In the period 2006 to 2011 all three comparator areas show annual increases in the rate of 15-year-old pupils achieving 5 or more GCSE grades A* to C.

Although there are significant fluctuations in the rate of growth in all three comparator areas Derby has a marginally higher average growth rate than both the region and England.

In the period 2009 to 2011, Derby has produced the highest achievement rates. In the period 2006 to 2009 there is little deviation in the rates produced by all three comparator areas.

In Derby, the percentage achieving 5 or more A* to C grades at GCSE in 2010/11 was 81.3%. This was higher than both the region (80.1%) and England (80.5%).

Table 11.3.1 – All 15-year-old pupils achieving 5+ GCSE grades A* to C2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

%Derby 55.1 63.6 67.3 77.2 81.3East Midlands 58.0 63.2 68.9 75.3 80.1England 60.4 65.6 69.8 76.1 80.5Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

55.1 63.6 67.3 77.2 81.3

58.063.2 68.9

75.3 80.160.465.6

69.876.1

80.5

Figure 11.4.1 - All 15-year-old pupils achieving 5 plus GCSE grades A* to C

England East Midlands Derby

Percentage

Page | 12

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

12.1 Prevalence of Obese Children (Reception Year)

In Derby, the prevalence of obese children in reception year for 2010/11 was 9.7%. This shows an improvement on the 2009.10 results of 10.3%. During the period 2009.11, Derby, has produced higher rates of reception year obesity than both the region (8.9%) and England (9.4%).

Table 12.1.1 – Prevalence of obese children (Reception Year)2009/10 2010/11

%Derby 10.3 9.7East Midlands 9.7 8.9England 9.8 9.4Source: Office of National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Derby East Midlands England

10.3

9.7 9.89.7

8.9

9.4

Figure 12.1.1 Prevalence of obese children at reception year, 2009/10 to 2010/11

2009/10 2010/11Percentage

12.2 Prevalence of Obese Children (Year 6)

In Derby, the prevalence of obese children in year 6 for 2010/11 was 18.9%. This illustrates a decrease on 2009/10 when the obesity rate was 19.4%.

Derby’s year 6 obesity rates are marginally higher than those for the region (18.3%) and marginally lower than the national rate of (19.0%).Table 12.2.1 – Prevalence of obese children (Year 6)

Page | 13

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

2009/10 2010/11%

Derby 19.4 18.9East Midlands 18.4 18.3England 18.7 19.0Source: Office of National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Derby East Midlands England

19.4

18.4

18.718.9

18.3

19.0

Figure 12.2.1 Prevalence of obese children at year 6, 2009/10 to 2010/112009/10 2010/11Percentage

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

13.1 Subnational Population Projections (2011-based) for persons Aged Under 16

Table 13.1.1 – Subnational population projections, thousands(persons under 16)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016%

Derby 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.1East Midlands 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.6England 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Table 13.1.1 Continued – Subnational population projections, thousands (persons under 16)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%

Derby 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4East Midlands 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0

Page | 14

England 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.6Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

There are projected to be 52,900 people under 16 in Derby in 2016. The percentage change in this age group between 2016 and 2021 is projected to be 5.7%. During the same period, the percentage change in Derby is projected to be less than that in both the East Midlands and England with 6.5%.

Page | 15

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

18.5 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 19 19

18.9 18.9 18.9 19 19 19.1 19.2 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.6

20.4 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4

Figure 14.1.1 - Subnational population projections (2011-based): persons under 16, 2011 to 2021

Derby England East MidlandsProjection

(thousands)

13.2 Subnational Population Projections (2011-based) for persons Aged Under 18

There are projected to be 58,800 people aged under 18 in 2016. The percentage change in the number of people aged under 18 in Derby is projected to be less than that for both the East Midlands (5.6%) and England (5.8%)

Table 13.2.1 – Subnational population projections, thousands(persons under 18)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016%

Derby 57.0 57.1 57.5 57.9 58.3 58.8East Midlands 953.2 957.4 964.0 971.1 978.4 987.1England 11,340.8 11,415.7 11,518.7 11,622.2 11,723.0 11,837.1Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Table 13.2.1 Continued – Subnational population projections, thousands (persons under 18)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%

Derby 59.3 59.9 60.5 61.2 61.9East Midlands 995.4 1,005.5 1,017.1 1,030.0 1,041.9England 11,953.8 12,083.4 12,225.2 12,379.4 12,519.1Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 16

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

57.0 57.1 57.5 57.9 58.358.8

59.359.9

60.561.2

61.9

Figure 13.2.1 - Derby, subnational population projections, (Thousands) persons under 16, 2011 to 2021

Projection (thousands)

13.3 Subnational Population Projections (2011-based) - Percentage Persons Aged under 18

In Derby, it is projected that the proportion of all people aged under 18 in 2016 will be 22.4%. From 2016, the proportion of people aged under 18 is projected to increase to 22.6% by 2021. This increase is projected to be greater than both the East Midlands (20.8%) and England (21.3%).

Table 13.3.1 – Subnational population projections, percentage(persons under 18)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016%

Derby 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.4East Midlands 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.8 20.8England 21.4 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Table 13.3.1 Continued – Subnational population projections, percentage (persons under 18)

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%

Derby 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.6East Midlands 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.1England 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.7Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

Page | 17

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

22.9

22.722.6

22.522.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4

22.522.6

Figure 13.3.1 - Derby, subnational population projections, (Percentage) persons under 16, 2011 to 2021

Projection (Percentage)

Page | 18

Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011, April 2013 Update