week 5: presidential race report

SDL Proprietary and Confidential SDL Proprietary and Confidential

USA Presidential Race 2012 By Battleground States

Date Range: October 6 – October 12, 2012

9% 13%

8%

31%

18%

5% 16%

Abortion/Choice Medicare/SS

Middle Class Jobs/Economy

Budget/Deficit Obamacare

Foreign Policy

*Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments *

100%

All Eight States

2

Share of Voice – Key Issues

Candidate Sentiment – Obama (D) vs. Romney (R)

KEY FINDINGS:

The vice presidential debate made the issues

“Abortion/Choice” and “Foreign Policy” boost in

share of voice by 5.9% and 8.4% respectively.

However, “Jobs/Economy” remained the most

discussed issue with 31.1% in share of voice.

• Obama: This week, Obama led in volume in

all of the eight states. His overall Sentiment

Score decreased by 5.4. While he had a

positive score in New Hampshire, he led in

sentiment in Virginia, North Carolina, New

Hampshire, and Nevada, but with negative

scores.

• Romney: Romney’s Overall Sentiment

Score, which stayed at -6.2, was slightly

better than Obama’s. He had, however, no

positive scores in any states this week.

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change

Abortion/Choice 9.0% 3.1% 5.9%

Medicare/Social

Security 13.3% 17.9% 4.6%

Protecting the

middle class 8.3% 11.8% 3.5%

Jobs/Economy 31.1% 34.2% 3.1%

Budget deficit 17.3% 18.6% 1.3%

Obamacare 4.9% 6.7% 1.8%

Foreign Policy 16.1% 7.7% 8.4%

Candidate Current Week Previous Week Change

Obama -7.2 -1.8 5.4

Romney -6.2 -0.3 5.9

7%

11%

15%

41%

9% 2%

15%




Foreign Policy


100%

Wisconsin

3



KEY FINDINGS:

“Jobs/Economy” continued to be the most

discussed issue in Wisconsin this week

(40.8%). After having a boost of 10.8% in share

of voice, “Foreign Policy” became the second

most discussed issue. Meanwhile, “Budget

deficit” dropped by 15.8% in share of voice.

• Obama: Obama led in volume this week

with over 5,000 mentions. His Sentiment

Score, however, decreased by 3.7. He

continued to be blamed for the increase in

the budget deficit and heavily criticized for

his weak foreign policies.

• Romney: The number of conversations

about Romney was about 3,500. He led in

sentiment this week with a slightly higher

score (-5.7) than Obama’s. Wisconsinites

were negative about his Medicare and

Social Security plans.


Obama -6.8 -3.1 3.7

Romney -5.7 -2.6 3.1

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 11.2% 14.1% 2.9%

Protecting the

middle class 14.8% 13.4% 1.4%

Jobs/Economy 40.8% 33.8% 7.0%


Obamacare 2.3% 4.1% 1.8%



100%

Virginia

4



KEY FINDINGS:

Virginians mostly talked about “Jobs/Economy”

this week. One of the main issues in the vice

presidential debate, “Foreign Policy”, generated

many discussions this week in Virginia, making

it increase by 8.5% in share of voice. However,

the other issue, “Medicare/Social Security”,

dropped by 10.2%.

• Obama: Obama led in volume with over

8,000 mentions. He also led in sentiment

with a score of -7.6. There were many

negative comments saying that his new jobs

report was a lie. Others complained about

Obama putting the country further in debt.

• Romney: Romney had about 7,000

mentions this week. His score, which stayed

at -9.4, was worse than Obama’s. Most of

the Virginians criticized Romney on his

“cruel” health care plans.


Obama -7.6 -1.2 6.4

Romney -9.4 -0.3 9.1

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 8.7% 18.9% 10.2%

Protecting the

middle class 6.2% 12.1% 5.9%

Jobs/Economy 39.8% 35.1% 4.7%

Budget deficit 17.7% 17.7% 0%

Obamacare 2.7% 4.8% 2.1%


8% 9%

6%

40%

18%

2% 17%




Foreign Policy


100%

North Carolina

5



KEY FINDINGS:

“Abortion/Choice” and “Foreign Policy” were the

only two issues that saw a boost in their share

of voice, 7.0% and 10.3% respectively.

“Jobs/Economy” continued to be the most

discussed issue, while “Foreign Policy” became

the second most discussed.

• Obama: Obama continued to lead in

volume this week with over 10,000

mentions. His Sentiment Score improved to

a score of -0.6, making him lead in

sentiment as well. North Carolinians still

criticized him for the high unemployment

rate and the budget deficit, but they believed

in Obama’s intent to support all Americans,

rather than just a few like what they believed

Romney truly intended.


mentions this week. His Sentiment Score

dropped by 4.4, as North Carolinians

believed Romney’s tax plan only benefited

the rich. They also said that he did not truly

care about the middle class like he said he

did.


Obama -0.6 -2.8 2.2

Romney -5.3 -0.9 4.4

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 15.5% 18.6% 3.1%

Protecting the

middle class 8.6% 11.7% 3.1%

Jobs/Economy 28.7% 35.1% 6.4%


Obamacare 5.3% 7.8% 2.5%


10%

15%

9%

29%

14%

5% 18%




Foreign Policy

8% 12%

7%

32%

19%

6% 16%




Foreign Policy


100%

Florida

6



KEY FINDINGS:

Like in North Carolina, “Abortion/Choice” and

“Foreign Policy” had significant increases this

week, by 5.0% and 8.7% respectively. This was

mainly because they were talked about in the

vice presidential debate. “Jobs/Economy”

remained the most discussed issue with 32% in

share of voice.


with over 17,000 mentions. However, he did

not perform well in sentiment, as his score it

dropped by 7.6 (the vice presidential debate

did not help to improve his sentiment score.

Instead, Floridians criticized Biden and the

Obama Administration on the fact that they

did not explain how the budget deficit

increased by trillions over three and a half

years.

• Romney: The number of conversations

about Romney was about 15,000. His

Sentiment Score also dropped by 7.3, due to

North Carolinians criticizing him for his pro

life stance and for his health care plans.


Obama -8.3 -0.7 7.6

Romney -4.7 2.6 7.3

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 12.2% 18.7% 6.5%

Protecting the

middle class 7.0% 11.9% 4.9%

Jobs/Economy 32.0% 35.4% 3.4%


Obamacare 6.3% 6.8% 0.5%



100%

Ohio

7



KEY FINDINGS:

This week, Ohioans talked less about

“Jobs/Economy” and more about

“Abortion/Choice”, “Budget deficit”, and “Foreign

Policy”. “Budget deficit” became the most

discussed issue with 23.4% (+4.8%).

• Obama: Obama remained in the lead in

volume this week with over 8,000 mentions.

However, his Sentiment Score dropped by

8.5. The main topics of criticisms towards

Obama in Ohio this week were focused on

how bad the economy was under Obama

and how the budget deficit had gotten

worse.


mentions this week in Ohio and led in

sentiment with a score of -7.5. Romney

received many negative comments on his

health care plan, as people stressed that he

would cut the Medicaid budget by a third if

he was elected.


Obama -10.4 -1.9 8.5

Romney -7.5 -1.7 5.8

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 10.2% 16.7% 6.5%

Protecting the

middle class 9.9% 8.2% 1.7%

Jobs/Economy 20.2% 34.9% 14.7%


Obamacare 6.3% 8.4% 2.1%


13% 10%

10%

20% 24%

6% 17%




Foreign Policy


100%

Colorado

8



KEY FINDINGS:

Coloradoans discussed much more about

“Medicare/Social Security” this week, making

the issue increase by 9.7% in share of voice.

“Jobs/Economy” remained the most discussed

issue with 29.5% in share of voice.


5,000 mentions. However, he lost in

sentiment as his Sentiment Score dropped

by 5.8. Coloradoans criticized him for the

high unemployment rate, and some stated

that he took ten million dollars’ worth of

taxpayer funded vacations.

• Romney: Romney had over 4,000 mentions

this week. His Sentiment Score increased

slightly by 0.7 but he did not win any favors

with Coloradoans for his health care plans.


Obama -9.9 -4.1 5.8

Romney -2.8 -3.5 0.7

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 27.1% 17.4% 9.7%

Protecting the

middle class 8.2% 10.9% 2.7%

Jobs/Economy 29.5% 31.2% 1.7%


Obamacare 4.2% 6.3% 2.1%


9%

27%

8%

30%

11% 4%

11%




Foreign Policy


100%

New Hampshire

9



KEY FINDINGS:

This week, people in New Hampshire shifted

their attention from “Protecting the middle class”

to “Jobs/Economy”. As a result, the issue

“Protecting the middle class” plummeted by

30.2% in share of voice, and the issue

“Jobs/Economy” boosted by 13.5% in share of

voice, making it the most discussed issue.


with over 1,000 mentions. He also led in

sentiment, after seeing an increase of 4.0 in

his Sentiment Score. People in New

Hampshire believed in the jobs and budget

deficit reports from the Obama

Administration, therefore giving him positive

comments.

• Romney: The volume of mentions about

Romney was about 600. His Sentiment

Score increased by 3.7, but still stayed

negative at -7.9. People in New Hampshire

criticized Romney for his aggressive foreign

policies and his health care plans.


Obama 6.5 2.5 4.0

Romney -7.9 -11.6 3.7

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 19.9% 14.5% 5.4%

Protecting the

middle class 5.8% 36.0% 30.2%

Jobs/Economy 38.4% 24.9% 13.5%


Obamacare 3.1% 5.4% 2.3%


7%

20%

6% 38%

18%

3% 8%




Foreign Policy


100%

Nevada

10



KEY FINDINGS:

“Abortion/Choice” and “Foreign Policy” received

much more attention this week by Nevadans,

and they increased by 9.7% and 9.4% in share

of voice respectively. “Budget deficit” also saw

an increase of 4.4% and became the most

discussed issue.


2,500 mentions. He also led in sentiment

with a score of -6.7, which dropped by 4.5

from last week. There were some opinions

saying that Obama was only making money

for himself through Obamacare. Nevadans

also criticized him for the increase in the

budget deficit.


mentions this week. His Sentiment Score

dropped by 5.7 to a score of -11.0, as a

result of negative comments on his plans for

the middle class and his foreign policies.


Obama -6.7 -2.2 4.5

Romney -11.0 -5.3 5.7

Current

Week

Previous

Week Change


Medicare/Social

Security 12.6% 20.1% 7.5%

Protecting the

middle class 7.8% 15.5% 7.7%

Jobs/Economy 18.5% 25.1% 6.6%


Obamacare 3.9% 5.6% 1.7%


12%

13%

8% 18% 28%

4% 17%




Foreign Policy

Candidate Sentiment Score* by State

11

State Obama Romney

Current Week Previous Week Change Current Week Previous Week Change

Wisconsin -6.8 -3.1 3.7 -5.7 -2.6 3.1

Virginia -7.6 -1.2 6.4 -9.4 -0.3 9.1

North Carolina -0.6 -2.8 2.2 -5.3 -0.9 4.4

Florida -8.3 -0.7 7.6 -4.7 2.6 7.3

Ohio -10.4 -1.9 8.5 -7.5 -1.7 5.8

Colorado -9.9 -4.1 5.8 -2.8 -3.5 0.7

New Hampshire 6.5 2.5 4.0 -7.9 -11.6 3.7

Nevada -6.7 -2.2 4.5 -11.0 -5.3 5.7

• Obama only had a positive score in New Hampshire, while his Sentiment Scores in North Carolina and

New Hampshire were the only scores that increased this week. He led in sentiment in Virginia, North

Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

• Romney had no positive scores this week. His score only increased slightly in Colorado and New

Hampshire. *Sentiment Score = (number of Positive Comments – number of Negative Comments)/Total Comments * 100%

Share of Voice for Key Issues by State

12

State Abortion/

Choice

Medicare/

Social

Security

Protecting

the middle

class

Jobs/

Economy

Budget

deficit Obamacare

Foreign

Policy

Wisconsin 6.7% 11.2% 14.8% 40.8% 8.8% 2.3% 15.4%

Virginia 7.8% 8.7% 6.2% 39.8% 17.7% 2.7% 17.1%

North

Carolina 10.0% 15.5% 8.6% 28.7% 13.9% 5.3% 18.0%

Florida 7.7% 12.2% 7.0% 32.0% 18.8% 6.3% 16.0%

Ohio 12.6% 10.2% 9.9% 20.2% 23.4% 6.3% 17.4%

Colorado 8.6% 27.1% 8.2% 29.5% 11.5% 4.2% 10.9%

New

Hampshire 7.0% 19.9% 5.8% 38.4% 17.8% 3.1% 8.0%

Nevada 12.1% 12.6% 7.8% 18.5% 27.7% 3.9% 17.4%

• “Jobs/Economy” continued to be the most popular issue in all states, except for in Ohio and Nevada

where “Budget deficit” had the lead. Meanwhile, “Medicare/Social Security” was most popular in

Colorado, and “Protecting the middle class” was most popular in Wisconsin.

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week 5: presidential race report

Documents

health care

positive comments

candidate

budget deficit

middle class

negative comments

north carolina

discussed