weekly market review - mashreq · 2017-04-04 · page i 3 institute for supply management’s...

Weekly Market Review December 28, 2014 – January 3, 2015

January 4, 2015

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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Institute for Supply Management’s factory index for US dropped to a six-month low of 55.5 in Dec from 58.7 in Nov

Markit’s manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 in Dec from 54.8 in Nov. New orders sentiment showed modest improvement while employment index declined to 53 from 55.1 in Nov

Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 92.6 in Dec from 91 in Nov

Construction spending declined 0.3% in Nov, the 1st decline since June, to an annual rate of $975bn

Markit/JP Morgan’s global manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6 in Dec from 51.8 in Nov, lowest reading since Aug 2013

Markit’s Euro zone PMI for industry stood at 50.6 in Dec, up from 50.1 in Nov but below estimates of 50.8

Germany’s manufacturing sector returned to growth in Dec as Markit’s PMI rose to 51.2 from 49.5 in Nov

Italian manufacturing activity shrank as Markit/ADACI PMI dipped to 48.4 in Dec from 49 in Nov

Markit/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI hit a three-month low of 52.5 in Dec from 53.3 in Nov

Bank of England data showed that consumer lending rose at an annualized 8.3% in the 3 months to Nov

Japan’s ruling coalition approved corporate tax cuts from April to boost profitability and bolster economic growth

China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in Dec from 50.3 in Nov, while services PMI edged up to 54.1 in Dec vs. 53.9 in Nov

China relaxed capital flow rules as it allowed local firms to remit money raised through foreign listing sans approval

Brazil’s President vowed to curb government spending and push anti-corruption crusade as she began her 2nd term

HSBC Brazilian manufacturing PMI stood at 50.2 in Dec vs. 48.7 in Nov as new orders picked up

Markit /HSBC’s India manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level in two years at 54.5 in Dec vs. 53.3 in Nov

RBC Canadian manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 in Dec from 55.3 in Nov as new orders & employment growth slowed

HSBC Mexico manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in Dec from 54.3 in Nov as output and new orders surged

Venezuela’s Central Bank said GDP contracted by 4.8%, 4.9% & 2.3% in 1Q, 2Q and 3Q of 2014, respectively

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD %

S&P 500 2,058.20 -30.57 -1.46 -0.03

DJI 17,832.99 -220.72 -1.22 0.06

Nasdaq Comp 4,726.81 -80.05 -1.67 -0.20

Euro Stoxx 600 341.33 -2.56 -0.74 -0.35

FTSE 100 6,547.80 -62.13 -0.94 -0.28

Dax 9,764.73 -157.38 -1.59 -0.42

CAC 40 4,252.29 -43.56 -1.01 -0.48

Nikkei 225 17,450.77 -368.19 -2.07 0.00

Hang Seng 23,857.82 508.48 2.18 1.07

Brazil - Bovespa 48,512.22 -1,632.41 -3.26 -2.99

Russia - Micex 1,396.61 -21.19 -1.49 0.00

BSE Sensex 27,887.90 646.12 2.37 1.41

Shanghai Comp 3,234.68 77.07 2.44 0.00


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Dubai World agreed to sell its retail unit to Marka for around AED220mn as it seeks to raise cash to repay lenders

Dubai-based Kingdom Hotel Investments closed the sale of Mövenpick Hotel and Apartments in Bur Dubai to unidentified investors for $95mn

Abraaj Group withdrew from bidding for Bisco Misr after US rival Kellogg Co. offered EGP89.86/share vs. Abraaj’s EGP88.09/share offer

Dubai investments plans AED10bn real estate projects in next 5 years to benefit from resurgent property demand

Saudi Electricity Company signed SR1bn contract to buy generators for 550MW integrated gas/solar plant

Saudi-based dairy company Almarai recommended SR1/share cash dividend for 2014 amounting to SR600mn

Saudi Arabian Mining Co. is reportedly seeking to refinance $3.2bn of 2008 loan taken for a phosphate project

Saudi Ceramic’s BoD recommended SR2/share cash dividend, totaling SR100mn and SR125mn capital increase

Abdulaziz Alsaghyir Holding Co. intends to invest around SR1bn in the Saudi food sector during the next five years

Saudi Arabia's Takween Advanced Industries agreed to buy packaging unit of the Savola Group for SR910mn

Saudi International Petrochemical Co. announced initial start-up of the ethylene-vinyl acetate film plant of Saudi Specialized Products Co. Plant has an annual capacity of 4,000 metric tons and an estimated cost of SR150mn

Mada Gypsum Co. announced to build a new gypsum plant in Saudi Arabia with an investment of SR250mn

Capital Intelligence affirmed Qatar’s Ahli Bank’s long and short-term foreign currency ratings with Stable outlook

Qatar’s beIN Media Group agreed to pay $820mn for the acquisition of 53% of Turkish pay-TV giant Digiturk

Kuwait Airways finalized an order for 10 Boeing 777-300ERs aircrafts valued at $3.3bn at list prices

Kuwait National Petroleum Company commissioned a new liquefied petroleum gas plant built at a cost of $900mn

Commercial Bank of Kuwait cuts stake in Boubyan Bank to around 12.7% from the 19.9% it held in September

Galfar Engineering and Contracting Co. won OMR213.96mn contract to construct Royal Oman Police’s new hospital


Dubai 3,774.00 -112.94 -2.91 0.00

Abu Dhabi 4,528.93 -7.62 -0.17 0.00

Saudi Tadawul 8,409.54 -339.80 -3.88 0.91

Qatar Index 12,285.78 -163.27 -1.31 0.00

Kuwait Index 6,535.72 -42.09 -0.64 0.00

Oman MSM 30 6,353.50 -80.32 -1.25 0.16

Bahrain All

Share 1,426.57 12.66 0.90 0.00

Egypt EGX 30 8,926.58 186.46 2.13 0.00

Istanbul 100

Index 85,458.92 511.61 0.60 -0.31


DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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The euro slumped to the lowest in 4-1/2 years against the US dollar and dropped 1.5% in the week to 1.2002 dollars per euro after the European Central Bank signaled it will embark on large-scale government-bond purchases as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates

UK pound fell against the dollar for a third week as it weakened 1.48% to 1.5328 dollars per pound as reports showed growth in manufacturing and the housing market slowed, spurring bets the Bank of England will refrain from raising interest rates

Brazil’s real registered sixth straight weekly decline and depreciated 0.9% to 2.6942 per dollar after the central bank halved its daily swap offerings to support the currency

Malaysian ringgit lost 0.7% in the week to 3.5165 per dollar as falling crude oil prices and a rising dollar sapped demand for the Malaysian currency

Indonesian rupiah declined 1.1% in the week to 12,545 per dollar after jobless claims and pending home sales data signaled that US economy is improving which bolstered the demand for dollars

Turkmenistan devalued its currency, manat, by 19% to 3.5 per dollar as of Jan 1 from 2.85 previously, the first depreciation in almost 7 years, as slumping energy prices and a weaker Russian ruble pressure former Soviet states


EUR/USD 1.2002 -0.0181 -1.49 -0.79

GBP/USD 1.5328 -0.0230 -1.48 -1.60

AUD/USD 0.8089 -0.0032 -0.39 -1.05

USD/JPY 120.5000 0.1900 0.16 0.60

USD/CHF 1.0017 0.0142 1.44 0.74

USD/CAD 1.1785 0.0158 1.36 1.41

USD/BRl 2.6942 0.0250 0.94 1.38

USD/RUB 58.7500 5.2499 9.81 -3.27

USD/INR 63.2950 -0.2737 -0.43 0.40

USD/CNY 6.2077 -0.0053 -0.09 0.04

DXY Index 91.0800 1.0500 1.17 0.90

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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Brent futures on London-based ICE Futures Europe lost 5.1% in the week on concerns of growing supply from Russia and Iraq and signs of manufacturing weakness in Europe and China

Gold in the spot market ended 0.57% down, posting its third straight weekly loss, weighed down by a strong dollar. The dollar index hit its highest level in nearly nine years on Jan 1, boosted by strong US economic data and expectations of higher interest rates

Copper futures on London Metal Exchange fell 1.2% in the week as signs of slower manufacturing in China and the US damped the outlook for the metal’s demand

Palm-oil futures rallied 4.4% in the week on concerns that the wetter-than-usual weather that stretches from southern Thailand, through Malaysia and into Indonesia may hurt supplies

Rubber futures jumped 4.5% in the week as heavy rains flooded parts of Malaysia and southern Thailand over the past two weeks. Thailand is the world’s largest rubber exporter while some rubber exporters from Indonesia are in talks with buyers to reschedule shipments because of rains

Coffee futures declined 5.35% in the week as dollar rose to nearly 10-year high against the Brazilian currency. Global production of coffee is largely concentrated in Brazil, and the real’s weakness encouraged producers and exporters to sell their coffee abroad because they receive more back in their local currency


Gold spot 1,189.23 -6.77 -0.57 0.37

Silver spot 15.75 -0.33 -2.04 0.27

Copper-CMX 281.75 0.35 0.12 -0.28

Brent - ICE 56.42 -3.03 -5.10 -1.59

WTI - Nymex 52.69 -2.04 -3.73 -1.09

S&P GSCI Spot

Index 414.96 -14.20 -3.31 -0.76

Baltic Dry Index 771.00 -11.00 -1.41 -1.41

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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US 10-year yields sank 13.9 bps in the week to 2.11% as treasuries rose for the first time in three weeks after construction and manufacturing data disappointed, reading below expectations, and oil fell to a post-2009 low

Yields across the euro area fell to record lows in the week after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled euro-area deflation risks. Spain’s 10-year yield fell 17 bps in the week to 1.5%, yields on 10-year German bunds fell to a record-low 0.497% while Italian 10-year yields declined 19.7 bps to 1.739%

Indian 10-year sovereign bond rose in the week, snapping a two-week decline and yields slid 11 bps to 7.87% as plunging oil prices reduced India’s inflation risk and led to optimism the central bank will lower interest rates

China’s property developer Kaisa Group Holding defaulted on a $51mn loan from HSBC on Dec 31, after its chairman resigned and warned of further default. As a result, its 8.875% notes due 2018, sold to investors at par in March 2013 tumbled to 40.9 cents/dollar as of Jan 2, from 66.3 cents on Dec. 31, sending yields to 45.7%

Emerging market bond issuance, from both sovereign and corporate borrowers, amounted to around $480bn in 2014 vs. $439bn in 2013. China led by accounting for $101bn of bond issuances, followed by Brazil with $44bn and Mexico with $36bn of issues. Corporate sold $367bn of bonds while sovereign borrowers issued $106bn


USD-1w Libor 0.14 0.0020 1.50 0.00

USD-3m Libor 0.26 -0.0010 -0.39 0.00

USD-6m Libor 0.36 0.0054 1.51 0.00

USD-10yr 2.11 -0.1394 -6.20 -2.80

AED-1m EIBOR 0.39 0.0014 0.36 0.00

AED-3m EIBOR 0.68 0.0000 0.00 0.00

AED-12m EIBOR 1.02 0.0000 0.00 0.00

UK-10yr 1.72 -0.1630 -8.67 -2.16

Japan-10yr 0.32 -0.0030 -0.92 0.00

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Kazakhstan -8.59% -8.59%

2 Russia -4.57% -4.57%

3 Saudi Arabia -3.88% -3.88%

4 Brazil -3.26% -4.15%

5 Dubai−UAE -2.91% -2.91%

6 Colombia -2.20% -2.47%

7 Japan -2.07% -2.22%

8 Mexico -2.06% -2.87%

9 Greece -1.99% -3.44%

10 Germany -1.59% -3.05%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Ukraine 3.83% 3.83%

2 Venezuela 3.75% 3.75%

3 Argentina 3.50% 3.44%

4 Romania 2.66% 0.79%

5 China 2.44% 2.53%

6 India 2.37% 2.81%

7 Pakistan 2.31% 2.26%

8 Vietnam 2.30% 2.30%

9 Hong Kong 2.18% 2.22%

10 Egypt 2.13% 2.10%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela 2.01% 2.01%

2 Pakistan 1.87% 1.55%

3 Czech Republic 1.63% 0.77%

4 Austria 1.43% 0.63%

5 India 1.41% 1.01%

6 Greece 1.22% 0.41%

7 Portugal 1.17% 0.37%

8 Ghana 1.16% 1.38%

9 Denmark 1.11% 0.34%

10 Hong Kong 1.07% 1.05%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Brazil -2.99% -4.31%

2 Mexico -2.39% -2.96%

3 Colombia -1.92% -1.82%

4 Slovenia -1.00% -1.79%

5 Namibia -0.57% -1.53%

6 Netherlands -0.52% -1.31%

7 South Africa -0.51% -1.47%

8 France -0.48% -1.27%

9 Malaysia -0.48% -1.02%

10 Germany -0.42% -1.21%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Natural Gas -11.21%

2 Rough Rice -6.89%

3 Heat Oil -6.65%

4 Brent Crude -6.34%

5 WTI Crude -5.64%

6 Coffee -5.35%

7 Gasoline -5.24%

8 Wheat -4.95%

9 Gasoil -4.51%

10 Nickel -4.01%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Tin 6.80%

2 Rubber 4.52%

3 Palm Oil 4.42%

4 Feeder Cattle 4.28%

5 Zinc 2.04%

6 Live Cattle 1.95%

7 Steel Rebar 1.24%

8 Gold 1.08%

9 Platinum 1.00%

10 Lead 0.54%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Natural Gas 3.95%

2 Orange Juice 3.14%

3 Feeder Cattle 2.05%

4 Gasoil 1.37%

5 Tin 1.26%

6 Zinc 1.24%

7 Silver 1.09%

8 Palm Oil 1.05%

9 Lead 0.65%

10 Cocoa 0.58%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Coffee -3.33%

2 Heat Oil -2.76%

3 Sugar -2.41%

4 Bean Meal -2.22%

5 Nickel -2.11%

6 Rough Rice -1.74%

7 Soybeans -1.64%

8 Brent Crude -1.59%

9 Wheat -1.44%

10 Cotton -1.14%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market review - mashreq · 2017-04-04 · page i 3 institute for supply management’s...

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