weekly market review - mashreq bank · new orders for us factory goods declined 3.4% in dec as...

Weekly Market Review February 1, 2015 – February 7, 2015

February 8, 2015

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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US nonfarm payrolls increased 257,000 in Jan. Unemployment rate rose to 5.7% as more people joined labor force

Private employers added 213,000 jobs in Jan vs. a revised 253,000 jobs added in Dec

New orders for US factory goods declined 3.4% in Dec as demand fell across a broad sector of industries

Markit’s US service sector PMI rose to 54.2 in Jan, up from the preliminary reading of 54 and 53.3 reading of Dec

Institute for Supply Management’s national factory activity index fell to 53.5 in Jan from 55.1 in Dec

JPMorgan's Global All-Industry Output Index nudged up to 52.8 in Jan from a 14-month low of 52.4 in Dec

European Union raised Euro zone growth forecast for 2015 to 1.3% from earlier 1.1%. Predicts prices to fall by 0.1%

Markit’s final Euro zone manufacturing PMI stood at 51in Jan vs. 50.6 in Dec, indicating factory activity grew slightly

German industrial orders climbed 4.2% in Dec, driven by solid rises in both domestic and foreign demand

Markit/CIPS British services PMI rose to 57.2 in Jan from 55.8 in Dec. Composite PMI rose to 56.9 from 55.5 in Dec

Markit’s final French composite PMI rose to 49.2 in Jan from 47.5 in Dec, slightly lower than initial reading of 49.5

The Bank of Italy said GDP will rise by more than 0.5% in 2015 as ECB committed to spur a recovery in the region

S&P lowered Greece's long-term rating by one notch to B- and warned that a further downgrade is possible

China’s factory activity shrank for 2nd straight month in Jan as HSBC/Markit’s final manufacturing PMI came at 49.7

Japanese manufacturing showed sustained growth in Jan as Markit/JMMA’s final manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2

HSBC Brazil’s services PMI slipped to 48.4 in Jan on a seasonally adjusted basis as compared to 49.1 in Dec

Russia’s GDP rose 0.2% YoY in Dec after contracting in Nov. 4Q2014 GDP contracted by 0.2% in annual terms

Inflation hit 15% in Jan, underscoring pain from sliding oil prices and Western sanctions

Reserve Bank of Australia reduces 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.25-3.25% from an earlier estimate 2.5-3.5%

Canada's trade deficit widened in Dec to $520mn from $285mn in Nov as a rise in imports outpaced export growth

HSBC UAE composite PMI gained to 59.3 in Jan from 58.4 in Dec, showing no major impact from plunge in oil prices

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD %

S&P 500 2,055.47 60.48 3.03 -0.17

DJI 17,824.29 659.34 3.84 0.01

Nasdaq Comp 4,744.40 109.16 2.35 0.18

Euro Stoxx 600 373.31 6.26 1.71 8.98

FTSE 100 6,853.44 104.04 1.54 4.38

Dax 10,846.39 152.07 1.42 10.61

CAC 40 4,691.03 86.78 1.88 9.79

Nikkei 225 17,648.50 -25.89 -0.15 1.13

Hang Seng 24,679.39 172.34 0.70 4.55

Brazil - Bovespa 48,792.27 1,884.59 4.02 -2.43

Russia - Micex 1,755.45 107.76 6.54 25.69

BSE Sensex 28,717.91 -465.04 -1.59 4.43

Shanghai Comp 3,075.91 -134.46 -4.19 -4.91


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Dubai Investments’ FY2014 net profit jumped 63% YoY to AED1.34bn; proposes 12% dividend & 6% bonus shares

Waha Capital’s FY2014 earnings zoomed 465% to AED1.73bn; plans AED3.2bn investment in the short-term

Emirates Islamic Bank’s bottom-line jumped to AED364.19mn in FY2014 as compared to AED139.49mn in FY2013

Dubai-based property developer DAMAC’s FY2014 net profit climbed 46% to $937mn

Aramex recorded 17% YoY rise in 4Q2014 net profit to AED89mn. Company targets 3 new acquisitions in 2015

Massar Solutions postponed its AED576mn IPO after it failed to secure enough investors during subscription period

Gulf Capital successfully closed an AED850mn syndicated revolving credit facility for six years

Sobha Group will start Phase II of its $4bn Dubai-based Sobha Hartland project in 2Q2015

Etihad Airways acquired 75% stake in Italian carrier Alitalia’s frequent flyer program MilleMiglia, for $127mn

National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) launched a $750mn five-year bond offering, rated AA- by S&P and Fitch

Dana Gas recorded a net loss of $4mn in 4Q2014 vs. a net profit of $35mn in 4Q2013 on slumping oil prices

Arabtec Holding’s subsidiary Arabtec Construction won two contracts worth AED375mn from Emaar Properties

Jarir Marketing’s FY2014 net profit rose 14% to SR745mn, recommends SR1.85/share dividend, totaling SR166.5mn

Guidance Capital Markets (DIFC) Ltd. arranged SR188mn Islamic credit facilities for Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons

Industries Qatar reported a 21% YoY decline in its FY2014 net profit to QR6.3bn

The Commercial Bank of Qatar concluded a QR1bn financing arrangement for Public Works Authority’s project

Qatar’s Gulf International Services’ FY2014 bottom-line more than doubled to QR1.4bn in FY2014

The Commercial Bank of Kuwait FY2014 net profit surged 109% YoY to KD49.12mn, recommends 18% cash dividend

National Bank of Oman expects to increase lending by around 10-12% in 2015, led by government spending

Bahrain-based Arcapita Bank sold PODS Inc. to Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan in a deal worth more than $1bn

Khaleeji Commercial Bank reported a net profit of BHD3.05mn in FY2014 vs. a net loss of BHD19.21mn in FY2013


Dubai 3,886.53 212.13 5.77 2.98

Abu Dhabi 4,608.56 151.74 3.40 1.76

Saudi Tadawul 9,180.11 301.57 3.40 10.16

Qatar Index 12,520.66 621.03 5.22 1.91

Kuwait Index 6,700.06 127.80 1.94 2.51

Oman MSM 30 6,687.76 129.30 1.97 5.43

Bahrain All

Share 1,435.94 11.57 0.81 0.66

Egypt EGX 30 9,965.43 122.33 1.24 11.64

Istanbul 100

Index 84,987.42 -3,958.40 -4.45 -0.86


DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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US dollar appreciated 1.4% in the week to 119.12 yen after data showed solid US jobs growth and a strong rebound in wages in January, bolstering view of an interest rate hike by mid-2016

Euro recorded the second straight weekly gain, appreciating 0.22% to US dollar 1.1316 per euro, partly in response to speculation that the Swiss National Bank was buying euros

The pound had its biggest weekly gain in a year as it rose 1.2% in the week to US dollar 1.52 per pound as several reports provided evidence of an improving British economy

Indian rupee strengthened 0.27% in the week to 61.70 per dollar as FIIs continued to pour money into the debt market and some banks sold dollars which helped rupee to post its fifth weekly gain in six weeks

Russia’s ruble gained 3.76% in the week to 66.86 per dollar as oil rebounded and investors wagered talks in Moscow will help defuse the Ukraine crisis

Brazil’s real weakened 3.69% in the week to 2.78 per dollar as the US monthly employment report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will damp demand for riskier assets by raising interest rates


EUR/USD 1.1316 0.0025 0.22 -6.46

GBP/USD 1.5243 0.0183 1.22 -2.14

AUD/USD 0.7796 0.0034 0.44 -4.64

USD/JPY 119.1200 1.6300 1.39 -0.55

USD/CHF 0.9268 0.0066 0.72 -6.79

USD/CAD 1.2527 -0.0205 -1.61 7.80

USD/BRl 2.7819 0.0990 3.69 4.68

USD/RUB 66.8570 -2.6096 -3.76 10.08

USD/INR 61.7025 -0.1675 -0.27 -2.13

USD/CNY 6.2446 -0.0060 -0.10 0.63

DXY Index 94.6980 -0.1060 -0.11 4.91

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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Oil prices posted their largest weekly percentage gain in almost four years as traders looked past the current world-wide glut of crude to focus on signals of future production cuts. WTI crude futures prices gained 7.2% in the week, the largest weekly percentage gain since February 2011

Gold and silver futures dropped 3.9% and 3.1% in the week, respectively as the US economy added more jobs in Jan than forecast, boosting speculation that the Fed will move towards the first interest-rate increase since 2006

Copper futures were up 3.65% in the week on hopes that Chinese government policies will boost demand while a rally in oil lead some investors to buy into commodity funds that included copper

Palm oil futures gained 4.9% in the week on Indonesia’s plans to boost biodiesel subsidies, which would expand palm demand in the largest producer and consumer

US wheat futures rose 4.8% in the week, marking its first weekly climb after six weeks of heavy losses, boosted by expectations of a rebound in demand for US supplies

Baltic dry index lost 8.1% in the week, falling for 12 trading days in a row since Jan 21, hit by a shipping glut, falling commodity prices and declining import demand from China


Gold spot 1,233.92 -49.85 -3.88 4.14

Silver spot 16.71 -0.54 -3.14 6.44

Copper-CMX 258.55 9.10 3.65 -8.49

Brent - ICE 57.80 4.81 9.08 0.82

WTI - Nymex 51.69 3.45 7.15 -3.74

S&P GSCI Spot

Index 410.41 20.73 5.32 -1.84

Baltic Dry Index 559.00 -49.00 -8.06 -28.52

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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US treasuries fell for the first week in 2015, leading to a 31.6 bps jump in the 10-year yields to 1.96% as US employment strengthened, reviving speculation the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates as early as 1H2015

Greek 10-year bond yield fell 104 bps in the week to 9.94% as a selloff in Greek markets eased after the ECB allowed the Greek central bank to offer the country's banks emergency funding of up to €60bn, having earlier said it would stop accepting Greek bonds in return for funding

People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) by 50 bps, after a slew of gloomy economic data, freeing up an estimated 600bn Yuan into the money supply

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee said it was keeping Bank Rate at 0.5% on Feb 5, after a two-day monthly meeting, leaving investors waiting another week for an update on when they should expect borrowing costs to rise

Australia's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a record low of 2.25%, its first since Aug 2013, in a bid to jolt an economy weighed down by falling commodity prices


USD-1w Libor 0.14 0.0009 0.67 0.74

USD-3m Libor 0.26 0.0030 1.19 0.20

USD-6m Libor 0.36 0.0050 1.40 -0.11

USD-10yr 1.96 0.3160 19.26 -9.88

AED-1m EIBOR 0.38 0.0000 0.00 -3.26

AED-3m EIBOR 0.69 0.0143 2.11 2.11

AED-12m EIBOR 1.01 0.0000 0.00 -0.28

UK-10yr 1.65 0.3160 23.76 -6.26

Japan-10yr 0.33 0.0630 23.25 3.73

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela -5.43% -5.43%

2 Turkey -4.45% -5.72%

3 China -4.19% -4.10%

4 Denmark -2.15% -1.91%

5 Mongolia -1.79% -2.25%

6 Cyprus -1.70% -1.48%

7 India -1.59% -1.33%

8 Mauritius -1.22% -2.12%

9 Ghana -1.11% -2.41%

10 Peru -0.99% -1.37%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Russia 12.08% 12.08%

2 Greece 11.28% 11.53%

3 Ukraine 6.48% -31.64%

4 Argentina 6.10% 5.89%

5 Dubai−UAE 5.77% 5.77%

6 Qatar 5.22% 5.22%

7 Hungary 4.89% 6.77%

8 Mexico 4.31% 5.21%

9 Brazil 4.02% 0.32%

10 Austria 3.82% 4.05%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Finland 12.32% 5.06%

2 Egypt 11.64% 5.33%

3 Germany 10.61% 3.46%

4 Saudi Arabia 10.16% 10.20%

5 France 9.79% 2.69%

6 Portugal 9.70% 2.61%

7 Sweden 9.22% 1.55%

8 Italy 9.20% 2.14%

9 Estonia 8.66% 1.64%

10 Belgium 8.06% 1.07%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Nigeria -13.48% -18.21%

2 Cyprus -10.82% -16.58%

3 Kazakhstan -10.29% -11.62%

4 Peru -8.51% -11.23%

5 Venezuela -6.27% -6.27%

6 Mongolia -5.52% -8.36%

7 Colombia -5.02% -5.22%

8 Ghana -4.92% -10.81%

9 China -4.91% -5.50%

10 Switzerland -4.40% 2.56%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Lean Hogs -5.34%

2 Natural Gas -4.16%

3 Gold -3.88%

4 Silver -3.14%

5 Feeder Cattle -2.80%

6 Tin -2.76%

7 Orange Juice -2.64%

8 Lumber -1.96%

9 Sugar -1.89%

10 Platinum -1.43%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Gasoil 15.94%

2 Gasoline 10.17%

3 Brent Crude 9.08%

4 Heat Oil 9.06%

5 WTI Crude 7.15%

6 Rubber 6.28%

7 Soybean Oil 6.07%

8 Ethanol 5.27%

9 Palm Oil 4.91%

10 Wheat 4.82%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Gasoline 8.63%

2 Gasoil 8.25%

3 Rubber 6.66%

4 Silver 6.44%

5 Gold 4.14%

6 Cotton 2.19%

7 Palm Oil 1.70%

8 Platinum 1.30%

9 Aluminium 1.00%

10 Brent Crude 0.82%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Lean Hogs -21.34%

2 Steel Rebar -16.65%

3 Ethanol -11.56%

4 Natural Gas -10.73%

5 Wheat -10.64%

6 Bean Meal -9.65%

7 Feeder Cattle -9.11%

8 Copper -8.49%

9 Rough Rice -6.53%

10 Live Cattle -5.81%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market review - mashreq bank · new orders for us factory goods declined 3.4% in dec as...

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