weekly market review - mashreq · weekly market review july ... bse sensex 28,114.56 0.01 2 ... dp...

Weekly Market Review July 26, 2015 – August 1, 2015

August 2, 2015

Page I 2

CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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US GDP expanded at 2.3% annual rate in 2Q2015. 1Q2015 GDP revised to show 0.6% rise vs. 0.2% fall earlier

US durable goods orders rose 3.4% in Jun, a sign business investment is poised to recover from early-year malaise

Conference Board’s consumer attitudes index fell to 90.9 in Jul from a downwardly revised 99.8 in Jun

US labor costs edged-up 0.2% in 2Q2015 followed by a 0.7% rise in 1Q2015, smallest gain in 33 years

Euro zone inflation stood at 0.2% YoY in Jul, same as in Jun and remaining far below the ECB’s just under 2% target

European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator moved up to 104 in Jul from 103.5 in Jun

Ifo Institute’s German business climate index increased to 108 in Jul from a revised 107.5 in Jun on Greece talks

Unemployment remained at historic low of 6.4% in Jul despite jobless rising an unexpected 9,000

British economy grew by 0.7% in 2Q2015, following an unexpected slowdown to 0.4% in 1Q2015

The Confederation of British Industry’s industrial order book balance fell from -7 in Jun to -10 in Jul, a 2-year low

Ireland’s economy grew 1.4% QoQ in 1Q2015, forecasted to be fastest growing European nation for 2nd yr. in 2015

Japan retail sales slipped 0.8% MoM in Jun, the 3rd decline in 2015 adding risks to the world’s third biggest economy

Annual core consumer inflation rose 0.1% in Jun, slightly exceeding expectations of no change

Household spending unexpectedly dipped 2% in the year to Jun after rising 4.8% in May

Chinese industrial firms’ profits slid 0.3% YoY in Jun, reversing a 0.6% & 2.6% gain in May & Apr, respectively

The official PMI edge-down to 50 in Jul from 50.2 in Jun, indicating manufacturing unexpectedly stalled

S&P revised outlook on Brazil’s rating to negative from stable, citing nation’s political & economic challenges

Russia’s GDP declined 4.2% in Jun vs. 4.8% in May, helped by huge ruble devaluation and government spending

Taiwan’s economy grew 0.64% YoY in 2Q2015, sharply lower than 3.37% growth of 1Q2015 hit by slowing China

Nielsen’s UAE consumer confidence index fell 7 pts QoQ to 108 in 2Q2015, remaining at highest level in MEA region

Kenyan and US companies are in talks to implement Kenya’s biggest infrastructure project at a cost of $26bn

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

S&P 500 2,103.84 1.16 2.18 17.74 2.02

DJI 17,689.86 0.69 -0.75 15.90 2.37

Nasdaq Comp 5,128.28 0.78 8.28 22.46 1.18

Euro Stoxx 600 396.37 0.44 15.71 16.80 3.28

FTSE 100 6,696.28 1.77 1.98 16.38 3.84

Dax 11,308.99 -0.34 15.33 14.15 2.63

CAC 40 5,082.61 0.50 18.95 16.58 3.01

Nikkei 225 20,585.24 0.20 17.96 19.51 1.43

Hang Seng 24,636.28 -1.96 4.37 11.93 3.34

Brazil - Bovespa

50,864.77 3.29 1.71 13.81 3.77

Russia - Micex 1,669.00 4.60 19.50 6.53 4.83

BSE Sensex 28,114.56 0.01 2.24 16.64 1.33

Shanghai Comp 3,663.73 -10.00 13.26 15.16 1.76

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

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Etisalat reported an AED1.5bn net income in 2Q2015 for a revenue of AED13.3bn. It did not provide 2Q2014 figure

Lulu Group paid AED626.6mn for Great Scotland Yard in London as the company expands into hotel development

Aramex reported a 15% YoY rise in 2Q2015 net profit to AED92.6mn. Top-line increased 6% YoY to AED967mn

GFH Capital Ltd. agreed to acquire 80% stake in a Dubai-based private school valued at AED200mn, within one year

Securities & Commodities Authority approved foreigners to own up to 25% of United Insurance Company’s capital

Dubai Financial Market’s 2Q2015 bottom-line dropped 47.6% YoY to AED132mn. Top-line slid 42.1% YoY

DP World is building $1.69bn terminal at its flagship Jebel Ali port as Expo 2020 is expected to increase demand

Dubai Investments’ 2Q2015 net profit plunged 58.7% YoY to AED223mn. Revenue fell 39.6% YoY to AED616.9mn

Emaar Properties awarded AED844mn ‘The Hills’ project construction contract to Al Ghandi & Consol. Contractors

SABIC’s 2Q2015 earnings fell 4.5% YoY to SAR6.17bn; plans to expand US shale gas investments through JV

Rabigh Refining & Petrochem recorded a surge of 193.5% in 2Q2015 net income to SAR504.9mn

The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia successfully completed SAR3.9bn Sukuk issue

Abdullah A.M. Al Khodari Sons’ 2Q2015 bottom-line soared 340.7% YoY to SAR34.9mn

National Industrialization Co. (TASNEE) posted a SAR107.7mn net loss in 2Q2015 vs. SAR408mn net profit in 2Q2015

Savola Group’s 2Q2015 earnings decreased 15.4% YoY to SAR434mn, BoD approved 5% (SAR267mn) dividend

Kuwait National Petroleum awarded KWD3.48bn contracts to build al-Zour oil refinery, largest in Middle-East

Drake & Scull Engineering Kuwait secured an AED218mn MEP development contract for an educational institution

Qatar Navigation’s 2Q2015 earnings surged ~70% YoY to QAR286.4mn. Revenue jumped 32.3% YoY to QAR721.4mn

Qatar Airways said it is in talks to acquire a stake in India’s Indigo, denied rumors of stake plan in India’s SpiceJet

Ooredoo’s 2Q2015 earnings fell to QAR501.2mn vs. QAR817.4mn in 2Q2014. EBITDA fell 7% YoY to QAR3.25bn

Aluminium Bahrain posted a 95.7% YoY surge in 2Q2015 net profit to BHD29.8mn. Sales were up 3% YoY

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

Dubai 4,143.21 -1.38 9.78 12.74 6.28

Abu Dhabi 4,834.22 -1.34 6.74 11.43 4.57

Saudi Tadawul 9,098.27 -2.93 9.18 16.40 2.91

Qatar Index 11,785.22 -1.33 -4.07 13.19 4.30

Kuwait Index 6,253.71 -0.52 -4.31 - 4.24

Oman MSM 30 6,558.18 -0.50 3.39 11.48 3.97

Bahrain All Share

1,331.66 -0.40 -6.65 - 5.27

Egypt EGX 30 8,191.53 1.29 -8.23 11.62 1.68

Istanbul 100 Index

79,909.68 1.52 -6.78 10.28 3.10

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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The US dollar index edged up 0.09% in the week as 2Q2015 GDP data raised bets of rate hike although an unexpectedly weak reading of American labor costs limited the gains

The Canadian dollar slipped 0.3% this week against US dollar as GDP fell 0.2% in May, contracting for the 5th consecutive month led by weakness in manufacturing, mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction and wholesale trade

Brazil’s real fell 1.98% in the week against US dollar as budget report added to concerns that Brazil will be lowered to junk. Brazil reported on Jul 31 budget deficit before interest payments deepened to reais 9.3bn, above estimates

Russia’s ruble depreciated 5.3% from Jul 24 against US dollar, pressured by cheaper oil which revived concerns over the country’s economic outlook, particularly the perniciously high inflation rate

Offshore yuan edged-up 0.1% in the week to 6.2211 per US dollar after the People’s Bank of China set the official yuan midpoint rate at 6.1172 per US dollar, barely changed from previous fix of 6.1165 and as per expectations that China will refrain from weakening the currency to help exports

Indian rupee dipped 0.15% this week as month-end demand for the dollar from importers predominantly weighed on the rupee while sustained capital outflows pressurized the local currency

South Korea’s won weakened 0.2% in the week to 1,170.31 per US dollar on speculation a US interest-rate increase will exacerbate capital flight just as Asia’s fourth-largest economy is slowing

Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year %

USD Index 97.3360 0.09 1.94 7.83 19.50

EUR/USD 1.0984 0.00 -1.46 -9.21 -17.97

GBP/USD 1.5622 0.74 -0.57 0.29 -7.49

USD/JPY 123.8900 0.06 1.13 3.43 20.52

USD/CHF 0.9663 0.35 3.29 -2.82 6.33

USD/CAD 1.3091 0.32 4.78 12.65 20.03

USD/BRL 3.4214 1.98 10.26 28.74 51.15

USD/RUB 61.7050 5.31 11.50 1.60 72.91

USD/INR 64.1362 0.15 0.76 1.73 5.91

USD/CNY 6.2097 0.00 0.14 0.07 0.58

USD/AUD 1.3687 -0.33 5.49 11.83 27.23

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


Page I 6

Brent crude futures dropped 4.4% while WTI futures fell 2.1% from Jul 24 after the OPEC cartel indicated that current lofty output levels will remain, while a stronger dollar also exerted downward pressure

Spot gold prices slipped 0.3% in the week, registering a 6th straight weekly fall, its longest retreat in 16 years, as the dollar remained firm after upbeat US economic data encouraged bets on the Fed raising interest rates in Sept

LME tin futures jumped 5.8% in the week as Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier restricts shipments. From Aug 1, shippers will have to obtain a recommendation and a permit from separate govt. ministries to export the metal

The CBoT corn futures dipped 5.5% in the week as the US Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop’s good-to-excellent rating increased 1% WoW. Corn silking improved to 78% nationally versus the 5-year average of 77%

Malaysian palm oil futures ended 2.75% down this week as traders said bearish forces are lining up against palm oil, including slowing demand from China and India. China is the world’s top importer of tropical oil

US wheat futures weakened 2.4% from Jul 24 as US harvest pressure and poor export prospects offset concerns over dry weather in other major export nations

LME nickel futures fell 2.3% in the week as a slowdown in Chinese growth damped the demand outlook while nickel stockpiles, tracked by LME, increased by the most in two months, signaling ample supplies


Brent – ICE 52.21 -4.41 -17.90 -8.93 -50.75

WTI – Nymex 47.12 -2.12 -20.77 -11.54 -52.00

Gold Spot 1,095.82 -0.29 -6.53 -7.51 -14.56

Silver Spot 14.78 0.65 -6.06 -5.86 -27.52

Copper - CMX 236.35 -0.76 -9.91 -16.35 -26.85

S&P GSCI Spot Index

378.38 -2.14 -14.14 -9.50 -39.14

Baltic Dry Index 1,131.00 4.14 41.38 44.63 49.80

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


Page I 7

US treasuries rose, sending 10-year yield down 8 bps this week after a report showed wages and salaries in the US rose in 2Q2015 at the slowest pace on record, raising bets that it may temper Fed plans to raise rates later in 2015

European bonds gained as demand for higher-yielding assets got a boost from rising stocks, reduced inflation and speculation that central bankers will keep borrowing costs low. Portugal 10-year yield slid ~12bps to 2.38% while Italian 10-year yield fell 9.5 bps to 1.77% in the week

Brazil’s central bank raised the key Selic rate by 50 bps to 14.25% for a sixth straight meeting on Jul 29 and signaled that borrowing costs are high enough to slow inflation toward its target

Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rate by 50 bps to 11% on Jul 31, as expected, citing a cooling economy that it said outweighed inflation risks

Mexico’s central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged at a record low, saying the outlook for growth has worsened. Banco de Mexico’s board left the overnight rate at 3% on Jul 30

Colombia's central bank held the benchmark lending rate at 4.5% for the 11th straight month on Jul 31 to help bolster economic growth, although the decision was divided as some policymakers sought an increase to tackle accelerating inflation

Taiwan’s bonds rose, pushing the 10-year yield down 1.6 bps in the week to 1.45% as a report showed 2Q2015 GDP increased 0.64% YoY, which boosted demand for government debt


USD-10yr 2.18 -3.64 -7.35 0.41 -14.77

USD-2yr 0.66 -2.58 2.79 -0.59 25.21

Fed Funds Rate 0.14 7.69 75.00 133.33 75.00

USD-3m Libor 0.31 4.57 8.97 20.74 29.07

USD-6m Libor 0.49 4.25 10.13 35.03 46.46

German-10yr 0.64 -6.80 -15.71 19.04 -44.24

UK-10yr 1.88 -2.69 -7.02 7.18 -27.67

Japan-10yr 0.41 0.00 -11.76 25.78 -24.02

AED-3m EIBOR 0.76 0.57 1.92 12.24 5.35

AED-6m EIBOR 0.91 0.47 1.59 8.29 1.11

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 China -10.00% -10.01%

2 Singapore -4.48% -4.51%

3 Ghana -3.38% -12.62%

4 Kenya -3.13% -4.13%

5 Saudi Arabia -2.93% -2.92%

6 Nigeria -2.93% -2.91%

7 Slovakia -2.58% -2.58%

8 Hong Kong -1.96% -1.98%

9 Vietnam -1.62% -1.58%

10 Philippine -1.51% -1.98%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Brazil 3.29% 1.29%

2 Venezuela 3.22% 3.22%

3 Australia 2.39% 2.76%

4 Malta 2.22% 2.22%

5 Canada 1.99% 1.66%

6 Poland 1.82% 1.86%

7 Argentina 1.81% 1.62%

8 UK 1.77% 2.52%

9 Turkey 1.52% 0.31%

10 South Africa 1.36% 1.26%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela 300.95% 300.95%

2 Hungary 35.80% 27.06%

3 Denmark 35.75% 23.00%

4 Argentina 29.40% 19.23%

5 Jamaica 28.97% 25.90%

6 Malta 26.31% 14.68%

7 Ireland 24.66% 13.18%

8 Italy 23.81% 12.41%

9 Portugal 19.10% 8.13%

10 France 18.95% 8.00%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Peru -18.97% -24.34%

2 Colombia -12.94% -28.17%

3 Nigeria -12.92% -19.68%

4 Cyprus -10.64% -18.87%

5 Bulgaria -9.28% -17.65%

6 Kenya -8.90% -19.36%

7 Kazakhstan -8.58% -11.24%

8 Egypt -8.23% -16.07%

9 Indonesia -8.12% -15.93%

10 Laos -7.25% -8.39%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


Page I 9

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Corn -5.48%

2 Lumber -5.47%

3 Brent Crude -4.41%

4 Gasoline -2.91%

5 Cotton -2.78%

6 Palm Oil -2.75%

7 Heat Oil -2.53%

8 Wheat -2.44%

9 Gasoil -2.35%

10 Nickel -2.30%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Tin 5.81%

2 Steel Rebar 5.47%

3 Rough Rice 4.26%

4 Coffee 2.45%

5 Live Cattle 1.87%

6 Lean Hogs 1.06%

7 Cocoa 0.88%

8 Natural Gas 0.81%

9 Silver 0.70%

10 Ethanol 0.67%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Gasoline 23.14%

2 Cocoa 10.27%

3 Cotton 6.21%

4 Rough Rice 0.22%

5

6

7

8

9

10

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Nickel -27.13%

2 Coffee -24.82%

3 Lumber -23.86%

4 Sugar -23.28%

5 Palladium -23.27%

6 Steel Rebar -21.63%

7 Platinum -18.59%

8 Copper -16.35%

9 Tin -15.98%

10 Wheat -15.35%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


Page I 10

IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market review - mashreq · weekly market review july ... bse sensex 28,114.56 0.01 2 ... dp...

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