weekly quiz questions - ncml...as on 5 july 2017, 385.81 lmt of rice has been procured in kms...

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Date: 17-07-2017 NCML Commodity Market Monitor WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS 1. Name the fungicide whose Maximum Residual Limit has been recently reduced by EU and the commodity whose export it will affect from India? 2. What according to 2 nd advance estimate of NHB is India’s production of Coriander in 2016-17? Participate in our weekly quiz based on this report. Email the answers [email protected]. Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded. Wheat Paddy Chana Tur Guarseed Coriander Monsoon Situation | Sowing progress | Procurement | Pulses investigation | MSP IN THIS REPORT

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Page 1: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Home

WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS

1. Name the fungicide whose Maximum Residual Limit has been recently reduced by EU and the commodity whose export it will affect from India?

2. What according to 2nd advance estimate of NHB is India’s production of Coriander in 2016-17?

Participate in our weekly quiz based on this report. Email the answers [email protected]. Winners will be announced in next report and rewarded.

Wheat Paddy Chana Tur Guarseed Coriander

Monsoon Situation | Sowing progress | Procurement | Pulses investigation | MSP

IN THIS REPORT

Page 2: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Price Trend & Technicals

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Wheat: Standard mill quality : Delhi

Sharp rise in the wheat prices in the international market have

somewhat improved the sentiments. Global fundamentals are

supportive and demand in the domestic market is also

underpinning the prices. However sufficient availability of the

grains is limiting the upside. Nearby resistance band is seen at Rs

1775-1800. The prices have recently moved up but the momentum

doesn’t look to be strong enough to breach Rs 1775. Wheat will

expectedly be moderate in the coming weeks and slip towards Rs

1735. Only the global factors can make prices sustain the gains for

some more time.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

1720 1735 1766.55 1775 1825

Outlook: Prices will trade with sideways to down bias and move closer to Rs 1735.

As a result of strong procurement, wheat stock in India’s central pool

currently in July 2017 stands at 322.75 LMT against buffer norm of 245.80 on

1 July. The stocks which had drastically fallen low last year due to low

production have recouped.

The total wheat procurement in India for the Rabi Marketing Season 2017-18

stood at 308 LMT (Lakh Metric tonnes), 22 LMT short of the targeted 330

LMT. However the procurement number is significantly high this year

against only 230 lakh MT procured last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/Quintal

14-07-2017 07-07-2017 %change

Delhi 1766.55 1772.5 -0.34

Kota 1671.6 1628.5 2.65

Kanpur 1662.5 1627.5 2.15

Punjab and UP exceeded their procurement targets - Punjab procured 117.05 LMT against a target of 115 LMT & UP procured a record 36.99 LMT

against a target of 30 LMT, Haryana ended close to its target – it procured 74.11 LMT against the target of 75 LMT, but Rajasthan and MP ended

below what was targeted by them – MP procured 67.24 LMT against 85 LMT AND Rajasthan procured 12.45 LMT against targeted 17.5 LMT.

The government has estimated India’s 2016-17 wheat production at a record high of 97.44 million tonnes, 5.6% higher than 92.29 million tonnes

in 2015-16, on back of higher area sown, good monsoon & favorable temperatures during harvest.

FCI has commenced its Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) for bulk buyers like food companies and flour millers in non-procuring states in June

and in key procuring states in July at price of Rs 1790 per quintal

The high demand by flour mills in spot market is supporting the prices. The domestic wheat is of good quality this season and hence the mills

are preferring high quality domestic wheat to the imported tocks.

Prices for International wheat futures meanwhile have been soaring. July futures at the CBOT rose about 20%; even after a mild correction

afterwards, they have still enjoyed a 15%-plus rally since late June. The reason is mainly the drought stricken wheat-producing areas of the U.S.

and the USDA estimates that as a result of drought total acreage sown for 2017 will be down nearly 10% from last year. The drought is hurting

spring wheat. Latest USDA report has estimated spring wheat production to decline to 423 million bushels from 534 million bushels last year.

But the cut is less than what analysts expected.

In Ukraine, abnormally dry weather is likely to push down yields, and droughts in parts of Australia could translate into an estimated 30-per-cent

decline in production from last year — it could be the smallest crop in a decade for one of the world’s major wheat exporters.

An overall fundamental score of 2.8 shows mild bearishness in wheat prices.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Bumper wheat harvest in 2017-18 Bearish 30% 2

High domestic demand by flour mills and stockists Bullish 25% 4

Adequate food stocks in central pool and commencement of OMSS operations

Bearish 30% 2

Bullishness in International wheat futures due to drought in US affecting spring wheat , and lower output expected in Ukraine and Australia

Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 2.8

* 1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International WHEAT

BACK TO TOP

Page 3: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International PADDY

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Export disparity due to stronger rupee Bearish 15% 2

Demand from millers Bullish 20% 4

Dried out arrivals, current stocks lower than last year in July Bullish 25% 4

Record high rice production in 2016-17 Bearish 15% 2

Higher sowing for 2017-18 Bearish 20% 2

Reduction of MRL for tricyclazole by EU on India’s exports wef 1 Jan 2018 Bearish 5% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.9

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

As per the latest sowing update, rice has been sown in 125.77 lakh ha till

14th July 2017, 4.5% above 120.32 lakh ha compared to last year but 5.1%

below normal. Despite only a modest increase in MSP of Rs 80, acreage is

good due to better price realisation last year and good monsoon.

The European Union, India’a major rice importer, has revised the maximum

residue limit (MRL) for tricyclazole, a fungicide used in India, to the level of

0.01 ppm (parts per million) from 1ppm and the deadline for imposition of

new criteria is 1 January 2018. This may hit the rice exports of around 3.5

lakh tonne from India to the EU.

Mandi Paddy 1121: Price in Rs/ Quintal

14-07-2017 07-07-2017 %change

Hanumangarh (1121 Pusa)

2900 3000 -3.33

Delhi (Parmal Raw) 2800 2800 0.00

karnal (Parmal Raw) 3100 3100 0.00

The paddy crop, which would be exported in 2018 after processing, is being cultivated in the fields now and the rice exporters are in a lurch. The

exporters have approached the Union government to buy more time from EU even as they are advising farmers of suitable cultivation practices.

Buying by stockists and higher demand in spot markets amidst no fresh supplies is keeping domestic rice basmati prices underpinned.

Rice prices in India and Thailand, the world’s top two exporters of the grain, fell this week on low export demand however, according to the

traders, big markets are done with their purchases. In India, the 5% broken parboiled rice prices eased by $8 per tonne to $411-$414 per tonne.

The export demand which had emerged from Sri Lanka & Bangladesh is being met by Thailand and other exporters. According to Indian traders,

importers were quoting lower prices due to a fall in prices in other markets but due to appreciating rupee, they could not lower the prices.

India’s paddy 2016-17 production is estimated at a record high of 109.15 mn tonnes, up 4.5% from last year’s 104.41 mn tonnes.

As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16.

India’s rice stocks in the central pool as on 1 July 2017 was around 26.46 million tonnes, down by about 8.75% from around 29 million tonnes

recorded during the corresponding period last year.

The July USDA report pegs Global rice supplies 2017-18 at 483.66 million MT, lower than last year’s 483.10 million MT. The number was raised by

1.9 million tons over previous report primarily on increased production for India and Thailand. India’s production is raised 2.0 million tons to

108.0 million, and Thailand production is raised 0.9 million tons to 20.4 million, both on improved rainfall thus far in the growing season.

Overall fundamental score of 2.9 shows mild bearish undertone to rice prices.

Export disparity, expectation of record harvest and higher sowing

this year is keeping the sentiments dampened in rice. Although the

demand in spot market is good and is capping the downside but the

negative factors are weighing on prices. Prices in the current

momentum can initially drop towards Rs 2725 which can act as a

near term floor. A crack of that level will lead to the further declines

but it may take a slightly longer time. Chances of any immediate

recovery from here on are bleak however if the prices re capture Rs

3050 and move beyond that we may see some more recovery.

Price Trend & Technicals

1600.00

2000.00

2400.00

2800.00

3200.00

3600.00

Jan

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Paddy - 1121 pusa : Hanumangarh

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2800 2880 3050 3200 3280

Outlook: Prices may move in the range of Rs 2900 to Rs 3200.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

2725 2800 2900 3050 3280

Outlook: Prices can slip in the coming weeks and can move closer to Rs2725.

BACK TO TOP

Page 4: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

With relaunching of chana contract on NCDEX, it received an

overwhelming response from value-chain participants on the

first day with trading volume of 17,380 tonnes and open

Interest of 6,990 tonnes. We expect prices to firm up with

supportive fundamentals of lower crop in Australia and

holding back of stocks by farmers in India. Prices in Bikaner

mandi are trading above the strong support of Rs 4850 and are

expected to move up in the coming weeks towards Rs5540

and Rs 5650.

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend & Technicals

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Chana - Rajasthani desi : Bikaner

CHANA

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

4800 4850 5175 5220 5540

Outlook: Prices will move up towards Rs 5540. Support of Rs 4850 will prevenet any further decline.

SEBI has allowed the NCDEX to re-launch futures trading in chana from

14th July 2017. The exchange will initially launch three months contract

of September, October and November. Future trading in chana may

have slightly bullish impact on the prices.

Till 13th July, Nafed had procured around 53.32 thousand tonnes of

chana from farmers of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

Procurement of chana is being made at prevailing market prices which

may give support to the cash market. However, this buffer stock of

chana with government will not let cash market prices to take sharp

uptrend movement.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

14-07-2017 07-07-2017 %change

Delhi 5400 5450 -0.92

Jaipur 5300 5400 -1.85

Bikaner 5150 5225 -1.44

Stockists are holding chana in expectation of getting higher prices in the coming days. Stock holding of chana may have slightly bullish impact

on the prices.

As of 14th July, Australian chana is being traded at Rs 5400-5450 per quintal in Mumbai market. Australian chickpea of October- November

delivery is being offered at Rs 5000 per quintal at Mumbai port. Australian new chana crop is expected to come in November – December

month putting downward pressure on the prices.

Finance Ministry clarified that the GST rate of 5 per cent will only be applicable on branded pulses (Brand Name/Trade Name), which is

registered under the “Trade Mark Act 1999”.

According to the Abares, Australia chickpea production estimate has been reduced by 24 percent to 1.416 million tonnes from 1.854 million

tonnes last year. Lower production estimate is due to unfavourable weather condition which might affect the yield. Lower Australian chana

production estimate may have a slightly bullish impact on the prices.

India chana production estimate has been decreased by 0.43 percent to 9.08 MMT in third advance estimates as against second advance

estimate of 9.12 MMT for 2016-17. However, trade sources are estimating 8.3-8.5 MMT of chana this year. Last year chana production estimate

was 7.06 MMT. Higher production estimate compared to last year may have slightly bearish impact on the prices.

Overall score of 3.4 indicates expectation of positive movement in the coming days.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Re-launching chana futures trading Bullish 15% 4

Procurement by Nafed for buffer stock Consolidation 20% 3

Holding of chana by stockiest Bullish 25% 4

Regular imports Bearish 20% 2

Lower Australian production estimate Bullish 20% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.4

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

BACK TO TOP

Page 5: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3525 3700 3750 3925 4100

Outlook: Prices will continue to trade with sideways to mildly bearish bias within a narrow trading band.

Price Trend &Technicals

Tur prices are trading sluggishly for quite some time now on the

back of higher estimates of production this year. Lack of any firm

positive cue from the fundamental front is keeping away prices

from showing any positivity whatsoever. The underling sideways

to bearish bias will be a continued phenomenon in prices for the

coming few weeks. Rs 3525 is the immediate support and prices

will move closer to it but the intensity of move will be mild. On the

upside Rs 3850-4100 is a strong resistance zone which is unlikely to

be breach soon.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

The government has exempted pulses imported from Canada,

France, and the US from mandatory fumigation at the port of

origin. However, for all other countries, importers have to pay a

high penalty in case fumigation is not done at the port of origin.

Government has increased the MSP of tur from Rs 5050 per quintal

in 2016-17 to Rs 5450 (include bonus of Rs 200 per quintal) per

quintal for 2017-18. Government have increased the MSP of pulses

with the intention to increase the sowing acreage of tur in India.

Higher MSP may have a bullish impact on the prices.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

14-07-2017 07-07-2017 %change

Mumbai 3400 3488.4 -2.53

jalgaon 3750 3750 0.00

Akola 3675 3690 -0.41

As of 14th July 2017, all India Kharif tur sowing is reported at 21.18 lakh hectares which is around 1 percent lower than the same time last year of

23.41 lakh hectares. However, it is higher than the normal area coverage of 18.75 lakh hectares. Higher than normal area coverage may have

bearish impact on the prices.

According to the trade sources, Burma Lemon Tur FAQ is trading in the range of Rs 3350-3400 per quintal at Mumbai port as on 14th July.

Regular and lower import quotes than MSP has a bearish impact on the prices.

Demand from millers is lower than average as they are using their old stock. Stockiest are also sidelined as they are not expecting much price

movement in the coming days. Lower demand from millers may have marginal bearish impact on the prices.

India tur production estimate has slightly increased by 8.74 percent to 4.60 MMT in third advance estimate as against second advance estimate

of 4.23 MMT for 2016-17. Last year tur production estimate was 2.56 MMT. Higher production estimate as compare to last year may have a

bearish impact on the prices.

Overall score of 2.75 shows slightly bearish movement.

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Increase in MSP Bullish 30% 4

Higher sowing acreage Bearish 25% 2

Steady imports Consolidation 15% 3

Lower demand Bearish 15% 2

Higher production estimate Bearish 15% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.75

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International TUR

3,100.00

4,700.00

6,300.00

7,900.00

9,500.00

11,100.00

12,700.00

14,300.00

Jul-1

5

Se

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No

v-15

Feb

-16

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r-16

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6

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p-1

6

De

c-16

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-17

May

-17

Jul-1

7

Tur: Desi: Akola

BACK TO TOP

Page 6: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

After a drastic fall in the prices since mid-April the declines found

floor at the strong support zone around 3150. Despite a strong

bearish momentum the level was not breached and the prices

are seen consolidating around those levels since then. Till the

time prices are trading above that level and we might see the

continued sideways movement but as the undertone is still

negative, if the prices manage to breach and sustain below Rs

3150 the chances of a further decline towards Rs3020 cannot be

ruled out. Till the support is intact range bound trading between

3200 and 3380 will be seen.

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

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-16

Mar

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May

-16

Jun

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g-1

6

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p-1

6

No

v-16

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c-16

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Ap

r-17

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Jul-1

7

Guarseed-Average : Bikaner

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

3160 3200 3310 3380 3440

Outlook: Price will trade within the range of 3200-3380. Fesh selling will emerge below 3200 for 3150 and then towards 3020.

Guar seed remained range bound with slightly positive tone as buyers

have turned cautious due to good rainfall received in Guar growing

regions of Rajasthan.

Demand in Guar gum remained better, but weak in Churi and Korma due

to sufficient availability of other alternatives at competitive rates. Further

with arrival of monsoon the green grass availability will also increase

which will hurt demand for Churi and Korma from cattle feed industry.

Guar arrivals in the market is very thin as farmers are busy in crop sowing

activities. There is sufficient stocks of Guar seed with stockists and they

are unlikely to liquidate their stocks as they expect prices to revive.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

14-07-2017 07-07-2017 %change

Bikaner 3335 3300 1.06

Jodhpur 3406 3375 0.91

Sri Ganga Nagar 3085 3100 -0.48

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Favorable monsoon rainfall Bearish 20% 2

Weak domestic demand Bearish 15% 2

Sufficient stock position, Holding back by farmers Consolidation 20% 3

Expectation of improved demand Bullish 25% 4

Higher acreage during current season Bearish 20% 2

Overall fundamental score 2.7

*1. Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5. Bullish

Fundamentals- Domestic & International

Price Trend &Technicals

GUAR SEED

According to Ministry of Agriculture report dated 11th July 2017, Guar seed acreage in Rajasthan increased significantly to 15.59 lakh hectares as

compared to 7.89 lakh hectares in the same period last year. In Gujarat, Guar seed acreage stood at 36,400 hectares against 4,400 hectares last

year same period. Guar acreage in Haryana increased to 79000 hectares as compared to 35000 hectares same period last year.

According to Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), Guar gum exports 2017-18 (Apr-May) from

India had increased to 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 46 thousand in 2016-17 (Apr-May). According to traders, Guargum exports are good

from overseas market and expected to remain on the higher side.

As per the Department of Agriculture Rajasthan Guar seed production in 2016-17 was estimated at 14.25 lakh tonnes as against 22.23 lakh tonnes

in 2015-16. The fall in production was mainly due to lower area cropped as farmers opted for pulses and oilseed crop.

Guar seed stock at NCDEX warehouses as on 13th July declined significantly at 14,405 tonnes as against 28,867 tonnes same period last year.

Overall fundamental score of 2.7 indicates that Guar seed prices might be trading in range bound manner with slight bullish tone.

BACK TO TOP

Page 7: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Fundamentals- Domestic & International CORIANDER

Price Trend & Technicals

3800

5800

7800

9800

11800

Ap

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p-1

3

Feb

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De

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May

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No

v-15

Ap

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p-1

6

Feb

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Jul-1

7

Coriander - Badami : Kota

Coriander prices are trading around multiyear low levels. With the

arrival season drying out and the expectation of crop being just

marginally higher we may expect a sharp up move from current

levels. The nearest support is seen at Rs in the band of Rs 5205-

5120 odd levels the chances of any significant drawdown from

that level are minimal. Even if the prices slips below Rs5100 that

should be considered as an opportunity for the longer term

buyers to enter the market. The only hurdle between the move

from current levels to Rs 6280 odd levels can be a resistance zone

which stands around Rs 5470. A sustainable crack of that will lead

to an upsurge towards Rs 6000 and then Rs 6280 mark in the

weeks to come.

IMPORTANT LEVELS

S2 S1 CMP R1 R2

5110 5205 5273 5470 6270

Outlook: Till the time prices are above Rs 5110 the prices can show positive movement towards the resistance of Rs 5470.

Coriander futures have been showing only a mild recovery since June end after

falling steeply in May due to subdued demand and increased supplies from

producing regions.

Due to rains in spot markets the arrivals are getting affected which can support

coriander prices in coming weeks. Further, lower arrivals were reported in June

as farmers are holding back stocks in anticipation of price recovery.

Despite a fall in coriander acreage in Rajasthan and MP 2016-17, the National

Horticulture Board has estimated India’s 2016-17 coriander output at 6.09 lakh

MT against 5.85 lakh MT in 2015-16, due to higher yield in Gujarat.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

14-07-2017 07-07-2017 %change

Kota 5295.2 5190.9 2.01

Baran (Badami)

4861.6 4166.7 16.68

Fundamental Summary

Price Drivers Impact Weightage Score (1-5)*

Fall in acreage in Rajasthan and MP Bullish 20% 4

High yield and production in Gujarat along with the adequate carryover stock

Bearish 30% 2

Lower exports due to disparity with Russia Bearish 15% 2

Farmers holding stocks in anticipation of higher prices and rains affecting arrivals

Bullish 20% 4

Buyers expected as prices around multi year low price levels

Bullish 15% 4

Overall fundamental score 3.1

*Bearish; 2. Marginal Bearish; 3. Consolidation; 4. Marginal Bullish; 5.Bullish

However the trade sources are saying that the production of coriander is not higher and that the high carryover stocks and incoming supplies

kept price bearish. In Madhya Pradesh, current year area was estimated to be down by 20% and in Rajasthan, by 30%.

According to the latest data on Spice Board of India, India’s coriander exports for 2016-17 are estimated at 30,300 tonnes valued at Rs 29,207.50

lakhs, down from 40,100 tonnes exported in 2015-16 which were valued at Rs 42,680.50 lakhs.

India’s export demand has shifted to Russia due to cheaper rates and Russia has overtaken India as world’s largest coriander exporter.

Further, higher imports from Russia and Ukraine have added to the supplies driving down the prices down. Last year, country imported about

25,900 tonnes of coriander mainly from Russia and Italy. The volume of import increase to more than 41,250 tonnes in 2016/17 in first 10 months.

It is expected that at these lowest price levels since 2011, the buyers may now become active. This along with arrivals tailing off are expected to

help in price recovery of coriander in coming weeks.

Overall fundamental score of 3.1 shows consolidation to mild recovery in coriander prices.

Page 8: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Centre hikes sugar import duty to 50% News Link

SEBI allows NCDEX to launch chana futures News Link

Rice exporters ask PM to intervene to protect Basmati exports to EU News Link

Irregular monsoon, low prices dampen sowing prospects for soybean News Link

Oilmeal exports in first quarter of 2017 up by 64 per cent, states SEA News Link

Investigation into Indian pulse price surge reveals cartels are to blame News Link

Karnataka woos traders from other States to its online agri platform News Link

India’s 91 major reservoirs at 23% of their storage capacity News Link

NAFED to begin oilseed procurement in West Bengal News Link

Why cotton sowing is surging in Haryana News Link

Palm oil futures may test resistance News Link

Branded basmati may take a hit News Link

Fumigation of pulses from US, Canada, France at ports allowed News Link

Analysts wrong-footed by corn price dip - but not by falls in soy, wheat News Link

-0.9-2.5

2.6

-3.3

0.1

1.5

0.8

1.3

0.0

-2.4

-2.9

0.0

11.7

0.00

-9.0 -4.0 1.0 6.0 11.0 16.0

Chana

Tur

Wheat

Paddy

Maize

Guar

Soya

Mustard

Cotton

Sugar

Castor

Chilli

Turmeric

Jeera

% age change since 07th July 2017

News corner

OFFICIAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES

Third advance estimates 2016-17 & previous years’ estimates :

Third Advance Estimates

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MSP in Rs /Qtl

Commodity 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Paddy Common 1410 1470 1550

paddy grade A 1450 1510 1590

Jowar Hybrid 1570 1625 1700

Jowar Maldandi 1590 1650 1725

Bajra 1275 1330 1425

Ragi 1650 1725 1900

Maize 1325 1365 1425

Tur 4625 5050 5450*

Moong 4850 5225 5575*

Urad 4625 5000 5400*

Groundnut 4030 4220 4450*

Sunflower seed 3800 3950 4100 #

Soyabean black

2775 3050

Sesamum 4700 5000 5300 #

Nigerseed 3650 3825 4050 #

Cotton(Medium Staple) 3800 3680 4020

Cotton(Long Staple) 4100 4160 4320

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

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MONSOON SITUATION

Page 9: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Sowing progress: Kharif 2017-18- PIB

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Page 10: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Procurement of Rabi Rice in RMS 2017-18

State wise procurement of Wheat for RMS 2017-18 – FCI (till 29 June)

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Investigations by the Income Tax department reveal that Surge in 2015 Pulse Prices was a Result of Cartellisation

The abnormal price situation in India was created by a coordinated collusive activity

or chestrated by few trading and financial entities. The physical stocks of pulses

(were) cornered in domestic and international markets to create an artificial scarcity

at the wholesale and retail levels. Significant long positions were taken on

exchanges to distort the market sentiments.

For detailed report click on the links below.

Investigation report

Video Link

Page 11: WEEKLY QUIZ QUESTIONS - NCML...As on 5 July 2017, 385.81 LMT of rice has been procured in KMS 2016-17 exceeding the total procurement of 342.18 LMT in 2015-16. India’s rice stocks

Date: 17-07-2017

NCML Commodity Market Monitor

Advisory Team

Basant Vaid Head: TCIG [email protected]

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]

Research Team

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]

Kamna Malhotra Economist: TCIG [email protected]

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]

Ansh Aggarwal Senior Officer: Trade Support [email protected]

For any research queries, contact us at [email protected]

Fundamentals- Domestic & International RM SEED

Disclaimer:

This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee.

Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in

possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in

preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or

implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or

misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as

they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect

any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report.

© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017

STOCK

Stock limits of States/UTs

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