weekly report 25th february 2012

8/2/2019 Weekly Report 25th February 2012

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February 25, 2012

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 1

TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

The bulls take a breather

Sensex (17924) / Nifty (5429)

After an extended weekend, markets opened quietly on Tuesday's

session and closed in the positive territory. However, all the

remaining sessions were in the favour of the bears. We had

stated in our earlier report that the "RSI-Smoothened" oscillator

was placed well within the extreme overbought zone. This

indicated exhaustion of the rally and indices corrected from

their highs to register the first weekly negative closing in 2012.

On the sectoral front, Realty, Banking, Capital Goods and Metal

sectors contributed heavily in this week's correction, whereas

IT and FMCG counters closed with a nominal gain. The Sensex

ended with a loss of 2%, whereas Nifty lost 2.43% vis-à-vis

the previous week.

Pattern Formation

The 200-day SMA and 20-day EMA have now shifted to

17200 / 517017200 / 517017200 / 517017200 / 517017200 / 5170 and 17720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 5370, respectively.

The "RSI-Smoothened" oscillator and "3 & 8 EMA" on the

daily chart have given a negative crossover.

The weekly "Stochastic" oscillator is negatively poised.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall

21109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 6339 (November 5, 2010) to 15135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 4531

(December 23, 2011) is around 18827 / 564518827 / 564518827 / 564518827 / 564518827 / 5645.

Future Outlook

This week indices corrected after nearing their resistance zone

of 18756 / 564518756 / 564518756 / 564518756 / 564518756 / 5645. We are now observing that this resistance

zone almost coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracementlevel of the fall from 21109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 6339 (November 5, 2010) to

15135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 4531 (December 23, 2011). Further, we are observing

a negative placement of "Daily RSI-Smoothened", "3 & 8 daily

EMA" and "Weekly Stochastic" oscillators. This indicates possibility

of a further correction or consolidation. At present, indices have

a decent support zone around its "Daily 20-EMA" level of

17720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 5370. The negative impact of above mentioned

technical observations will be seen only if indices sustain below

17720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 5370 level. In this scenario, the possibility of testing

17500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 5200 levels cannot be ruled out.

Conversely, the immediate resistance is at 18200 / 552218200 / 552218200 / 552218200 / 552218200 / 5522 level.

A move beyond this level may push indices higher to test

18293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 5630 levels. In the short term, marketshave a stiff resistance zone of 18756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 5630

levels. If indices manage to cross this resistance zone then they

are likely to test important resistance of 18945 / 570218945 / 570218945 / 570218945 / 570218945 / 5702 level.

W W W W W e reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach and

trade with strict stoptrade with strict stoptrade with strict stoptrade with strict stoptrade with strict stop-loss.-loss.-loss.-loss.-loss.

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Sensex weekly chart

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Sensex daily chart



February 25, 2012


TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SENSEX

NIFTY

BANKNIFTY

ACC

AMBUJACEM

AXISBANK

BAJAJ-AUTO

BHARTIARTL

BHEL

BPCL

CAIRN

CIPLA

COALINDIA DLF

DRREDDY

GAIL

HCLTECH

HDFC

HDFCBANK

HEROHONDA

HINDALCO

HINDUNILVR

ICICIBANK

IDFC

INFOSYSTCH

ITCJINDALSTEL

JPASSOCIAT

KOTAKBANK

LT

M&M

MARUTI

NTPC

ONGC

PNB

POWERGRID

RANBAXY

RCOM

RELIANCE

RELINFRA

RPOWER

SAIL

SBIN

SESAGOA

SIEMENS

STER

SUNPHARMA

SUZLON

TATAMOTORS

TATAPOWER

TATASTEEL

TCS

WIPRO

SCRIPS18,774 18,349 18,099 17,674 17,424

5,712 5,571 5,488 5,347 5,264

11,514 11,011 10,723 10,219 9,932

1,426 1,347 1,301 1,222 1,177

183 172 165 154 147

1,355 1,269 1,223 1,137 1,090

1,872 1,818 1,785 1,731 1,698

375 359 346 330 317

338 321 311 294 284

708 682 643 617 579

410 396 387 372 363

330 322 318 309 305

338 333 325 320 313274 250 238 214 201

1,686 1,658 1,636 1,608 1,586

391 383 377 369 362

509 501 492 484 474

749 713 685 649 621

550 537 526 514 503

2,250 2,162 2,109 2,021 1,969

163 156 150 142 136

398 392 384 378 370

1,030 981 950 900 869

160 150 144 134 128

3,038 2,993 2,949 2,904 2,860

214 212 209 206 203678 645 622 589 565

91 83 78 70 65

599 575 561 537 523

1,527 1,438 1,389 1,300 1,251

790 760 739 709 688

1,363 1,324 1,298 1,259 1,233

194 189 185 179 175

313 299 290 276 267

1,136 1,051 1,006 920 876

119 116 113 111 107

465 447 436 418 407

116 105 99 87 81

874 847 831 804 788

678 632 605 558 531

138 129 123 113 107

119 112 108 101 97

2,572 2,389 2,292 2,109 2,012

270 249 236 214 202

858 825 806 773 754

146 132 122 109 99

568 558 547 537 527

34 30 28 25 23

281 273 268 260 255

128 121 114 108 101

520 498 479 457 438

1,328 1,299 1,252 1,223 1,176

457 447 441 432 426

R2R2R2R2R2 R1R1R1R1R1 PIV PIV PIV PIV PIV OOOOOTTTTT S1S1S1S1S1 S2S2S2S2S2



February 25, 2012


Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

5200-5300 is very strong support zone for March series

Nifty spot closed at 5429.305429.305429.305429.305429.30 this week, against a close of 5564.305564.305564.305564.305564.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio decreased from 1.701.701.701.701.70 to 1.331.331.331.331.33 levels

and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 11.8511.8511.8511.8511.85%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 10.7110.7110.7110.7110.71%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has declined to 1.33 from 1.70 as its beginning of

new expiry. In march series we are witnessing heightened activity

in 5200 and 5300 zone which we believe is strong support

zone for the market. Call activity is very scattered and strikes as

far as 6000 option is also active for Nifty. However 5500 and

5700 strike calls have maximum open interest as of now.

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 16.20% to

23.50%. Historical volatility (HV) is at 21.20% and that for

BANKNIFTY is trading at 35.32%. Liquid counters having very

high HV are LITL, VOLTAS, HDIL, ADANIPOWER and UNITECH.

Stocks where HV are on lower side are ITC, DRREDDY,

COREEDUTEC, SUNPHARMA and TCS.

Nifty futures closed at a premium of 58.15 points against the

premium of 46.00 points to its spot. Next month future is trading

with premium of 90.45 points. Liquid counters where CoC is

high are ALOKTEXT, COREEDUTEC, INDUSINDBK, ABGSHIP

and NHPC. Stocks with negative CoC are SUZLON,

COALINDIA, ABAN, ESCORTS and PUNJLLOYD.

Total open interest of market has decreased from ` 1,51,513/-

crores to ` 1,03,536/- crores. Stock futures open interest has

decreased from ` 36,310/- crores to ` 30,678/- crores. Some

of the liquid counters which added open interest are OFSS,

STER, ESSAROIL, GSPL and DISHTV. Open interest was shed in

some large cap names like AXISBANK, SBIN, LICHSGFIN, BHEL

and MARUTI.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Scrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTY CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30 LLLLLot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50 Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :

29th March, 2012

Expected Payoff View: Mildly Bullish

5275

5400

5525

5650

5775

5900

BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP::::: 5800

Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk: Unlimited Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: ` 10,000/-

If NIFTY continue to move above BEP. If NIFTY closes at 5600 on expiry

NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in the favorable direction and time value decays.

Strategy: Ratio Bull Call Spread

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell Rate

PPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype ((((( ` ` ` ` ` )))))

BUY 50 NIFTY 5400 MAR CE 200.00

SELL 100 NIFTY 5600 MAR CE 100.00

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

0

0

` 125.00

` 150.00

` 25.00

( ` 100.00)

Derivative Strategy



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Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Ratings (Returns) :

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weekly report 25th february 2012

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