WelcomeWelcometo the 6thto the 6th

Annual System ReviewAnnual System Review

NOAA/CPO Climate Observation DivisionNOAA/CPO Climate Observation Division03-05 September 200803-05 September 2008

Silver SpringSilver Spring

Mike JohnsonMike Johnson

photo courtesy of MeteoFrance

WelcomeWelcome

photo courtesy of MeteoFrance

• Data providersData providers• Data usersData users• PresentersPresenters• Poster PresentersPoster Presenters• Program ManagersProgram Managers• Session ChairsSession Chairs• COSCCOSC• All Climate ObserversAll Climate Observers

Climate Observation ProgramClimate Observation Program

MissionMission

Build and sustain a global climate Build and sustain a global climate observing system that will respond to the observing system that will respond to the long-term observational requirements of long-term observational requirements of the the operational forecast centers, operational forecast centers, international research programs, and international research programs, and major scientific assessments.major scientific assessments.

2008 Review: focus on the 2008 Review: focus on the in situin situ Ocean component Ocean component

• Planning is now underway for OceanObs’09 (21-25 Planning is now underway for OceanObs’09 (21-25 September 2009, Venice)September 2009, Venice)

• The OceanObs’09 symposium will celebrate a The OceanObs’09 symposium will celebrate a decade of progress and make a major contribution decade of progress and make a major contribution to chart the way forward for the coming decade. to chart the way forward for the coming decade.

• Many of you played a significant role in Many of you played a significant role in OceanObs’99 and many will play a significant role OceanObs’99 and many will play a significant role in OceanObs’09in OceanObs’09

• Our 6th Annual System Review will be a Our 6th Annual System Review will be a springboard to help begin the year-long planning springboard to help begin the year-long planning leading up to the OceanObs’09 symposium next leading up to the OceanObs’09 symposium next September.September.

2008 Annual Review Theme:2008 Annual Review Theme:Toward the Next DecadeToward the Next Decade

A Decade of ProgressA Decade of Progress

photo courtesy of MeteoFrance

• A decade has passed since the OceanObs’99 A decade has passed since the OceanObs’99 symposium played a major role in consolidating the symposium played a major role in consolidating the plans for a comprehensive ocean observing system.plans for a comprehensive ocean observing system.

• Now, for the first time in history, the world’s oceans Now, for the first time in history, the world’s oceans are being observed routinely and systematically.are being observed routinely and systematically.

1999 2004 2008

Status against initial targets: 60%Status against initial targets: 60%

NOAA 48%

Japan 8%

Germany 6%

United Kingdom 5%

France 5%

Cananda 4%

Australia 4%

Denmark 3%

European Union 3%

India 2%

Norway 1%

Netherlands 2%

South Korea 2%

Russian Federation 1%

New Zealand 1%

All Others 5%

1999

20082008 15 countries contribute 95%

339 7723 in situ platforms globally 3860 platforms sponsored by NOAA 73 contributing counties

Initial ObjectivesInitial ObjectivesHow well are we doing? What else?How well are we doing? What else?

• Sea levelSea level to identify changes resulting from climate variability to identify changes resulting from climate variability and change;and change;

• Ocean carbonOcean carbon content every ten years and the air-sea exchange content every ten years and the air-sea exchange seasonally;seasonally;

• Sea surface temperature and surface currentsSea surface temperature and surface currents to identify to identify significant patterns of climate variability;significant patterns of climate variability;

• Sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, Sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, and fresh waterand fresh water to identity changes in forcing function driving to identity changes in forcing function driving ocean conditions and atmospheric conditions;ocean conditions and atmospheric conditions;

• Ocean heat and fresh water content and transportsOcean heat and fresh water content and transports to: (1) identify to: (1) identify changes in the global water cycle; (2) identify changes in changes in the global water cycle; (2) identify changes in thermohaline circulation and monitor for indications of possible thermohaline circulation and monitor for indications of possible abrupt climate change; and (3) identify where anomalies enter the abrupt climate change; and (3) identify where anomalies enter the ocean, how they move and are transformed, and where they re-ocean, how they move and are transformed, and where they re-emerge to interact with the atmosphere; andemerge to interact with the atmosphere; and

• Sea ice extent, concentrations, and thicknessSea ice extent, concentrations, and thickness to identify changes to identify changes resulting from, and contributing to, climate variability and resulting from, and contributing to, climate variability and change.change.

ToolsTools

• In situIn situ moored and drifting buoy moored and drifting buoy arrays, profiling floats, tide gauge arrays, profiling floats, tide gauge stations, bottom-mounted and ship-stations, bottom-mounted and ship-based systems.based systems.

• Continuous satellite missions for sea Continuous satellite missions for sea surface temperature, sea surface surface temperature, sea surface height, surface vector wind, ocean height, surface vector wind, ocean color, and sea ice.color, and sea ice.

• Data and assimilation subsystems, Data and assimilation subsystems, global-scale models.global-scale models.

• System management and product System management and product delivery.delivery.

The 2008 Annual System ReviewThe 2008 Annual System Review

Toward the Next DecadeToward the Next Decade

Major Topics to guide Discussion:Major Topics to guide Discussion:

• Progress of the observing system over the past Progress of the observing system over the past decadedecade

• Combined use of satellite, in situ, and modeling Combined use of satellite, in situ, and modeling techniques to observe the global oceantechniques to observe the global ocean

• Scientific results, uncertainties, and present Scientific results, uncertainties, and present capabilities of the existing observing systemcapabilities of the existing observing system

• Issues; gaps in the system; additional Issues; gaps in the system; additional capabilities that are needed to reduce errors, capabilities that are needed to reduce errors, improve scientific understanding, document improve scientific understanding, document change, and enable climate forecastingchange, and enable climate forecasting

The 2008 Annual System ReviewThe 2008 Annual System Review

Toward the Next DecadeToward the Next Decade

Organizing Drivers/Deliverables:Organizing Drivers/Deliverables:

• Rising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of HeatRising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of Heat• Ocean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat Ocean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat

and Fresh Waterand Fresh Water• Ocean BiogeochemistryOcean Biogeochemistry• The Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal The Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal

Temperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme Temperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme EventsEvents

• User Requirements and Applications:User Requirements and Applications:– Operational Forecast Centers -- NCEP/EMCOperational Forecast Centers -- NCEP/EMC– International Research Programs -- WCRPInternational Research Programs -- WCRP– Major Scientific Assessments -- IPCCMajor Scientific Assessments -- IPCC– Observing System Data Management -- OSMCObserving System Data Management -- OSMC

The 2008 Annual System Review AgendaThe 2008 Annual System Review Agenda

WednesdayWednesday

• Session 1: OceanObs’09 -- Setting the StageSession 1: OceanObs’09 -- Setting the Stage• Keynote: Ed Harrison -- OOPCKeynote: Ed Harrison -- OOPC

• Session 2: Ocean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat and Fresh Session 2: Ocean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat and Fresh WaterWater

• Chair: David Legler -- US CLIVARChair: David Legler -- US CLIVAR

• Session 3: BiogeochemistrySession 3: Biogeochemistry• Chair: Maria Hood -- IOCCPChair: Maria Hood -- IOCCP

• Reception and Poster SessionReception and Poster Session

The 2008 Annual System Review AgendaThe 2008 Annual System Review Agenda

ThursdayThursday

• Session 4: The Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal Session 4: The Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal Temperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme EventsTemperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme Events

• Chair: Ed Sarachick -- UWChair: Ed Sarachick -- UW

• Session 5: Rising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of HeatSession 5: Rising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of Heat• Chair: Kevin Trenberth NCARChair: Kevin Trenberth NCAR

• Group DinnerGroup Dinner

The 2008 Annual System Review AgendaThe 2008 Annual System Review Agenda

FridayFriday

• Session 6: User Requirements and ApplicationsSession 6: User Requirements and Applications• Chair: Ming Ji -- NCEP/OPCChair: Ming Ji -- NCEP/OPC

• COSC Open SessionCOSC Open Session• Program Planning and BudgetProgram Planning and Budget• Climate Services: The Sustained Ocean Observing System as a Climate Services: The Sustained Ocean Observing System as a

Foundation Climate ServiceFoundation Climate Service• DiscussionDiscussion

• COSC Executive Session COSC Executive Session • Planning for in-depth project reviewsPlanning for in-depth project reviews

2008 Keynote Address2008 Keynote Address

OceanObs’09 SymposiumOceanObs’09 SymposiumOverviewOverview

Ed HarrisonEd HarrisonChair, OOPCChair, OOPC

Backup SlidesBackup Slides

PartnershipPartnership

Implement the ocean domain of GCOS-92:JCOMM is identified as the implementing agent for 21 specific actions.

The Plan is in placeGCOS-92:

• Initial GOOS• GEOSS Ocean Baseline• UNFCCC Priority• G8 Commitment

Tsunami

IPYIOOS,

RegionalGOOS

87%

Total in situ networks February 200860%

62%

81%

43%79%48%24%

Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets

100%

100%

MilestonesDrifters 2005

Argo 2007

12501250

8686

3939

22402240

1515

468468

44

7979

7979

2626

923923

55

458458

6767

7979

2626

458458

6767

7777

2424

370370

5656

975975

8383

2727

15721572

99

458458

6969

12581258

9797

4141

30553055

4646

2121

2020

489489

66

102102

12501250

131131

5151

30003000

8787

3737

1515

170170

7373

882882

12501250

103103

4141

30003000

4747

2222

88

112112

12941294

9191

4141

25572557

2121

1717

492492

55

8585

7777

2323

370370

5151

20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 2006200620052005 20072007 20082008 GoalGoal

Initial Ocean Observing System Milestones including international contributionsInitial Ocean Observing System Milestones including international contributions

Tide GaugesTide GaugesReal-time StationsReal-time StationsInitial GCOS SubsetInitial GCOS Subset

Surface Drifting BuoysSurface Drifting Buoys

Tropical Moored BuoysTropical Moored Buoys

Ships of OpportunityShips of Opportunity

Argo FloatsArgo Floats

Reference StationsReference Stations

Arctic SystemArctic System

Analysis Products Analysis Products

Ocean Carbon NetworkOcean Carbon Network

Dedicated Ship TimeDedicated Ship Time

High resolution and frequentlyHigh resolution and frequentlyrepeated lines occupiedrepeated lines occupied

Number of floatsNumber of floats

Number of mooringsNumber of moorings

Number of buoysNumber of buoys

Days at sea Days at sea (NOAA contribution)(NOAA contribution)

Essential Climate VariablesEssential Climate VariablesReported Reported (NOAA contribution)(NOAA contribution)

Repeat Sections Committed,Repeat Sections Committed,One inventory per 10 yearsOne inventory per 10 years

Number of observatories, flux,Number of observatories, flux,and ocean transport stationsand ocean transport stations

Ice buoys, drifting andIce buoys, drifting andMoored stationsMoored stations

807807 671671 779779 787787

2020 3131 544544

1515 2929 3535 3737 4141

11

00 11 11 11

55554848 5959100100

60605656Total System Total System 3030 3434 4040 4545

20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 2006200620052005 20072007 20082008 GoalGoal

System % CompleteSystem % CompleteIndexIndex

33

4242 4343

340340

1818242421212020202019191919

00 00

Progress Toward Global Coverage Progress Toward Global Coverage (representative milestones)(representative milestones)

4444 4848 5353 6060 6666 77773030 3434 4040Initial TargetsInitial Targets

Surface Drifting BuoysSurface Drifting Buoys1250 sustained array achieved1250 sustained array achieved

281 Moored Buoys reporting281 Moored Buoys reporting

Tropical Moored Buoys

• TAO/TRITON sustained• PIRATA Extensions implemented• RAMA getting started

Argo Profiling Float ArrayArgo Profiling Float Array3000 floats achieved3000 floats achieved

GCOS Climate Reference Network of Tide Gauge Stations

Upper Ocean Thermal Line Sampling

Well sampled lines: 18 Over sampled lines: 1 50% sampled lines: 3 Under sampled lines: 14 Lines not yet occupied: 10

41 of 51 UOT XBT lines now occupied.

Volunteer Observing Ships

910 VOS reporting at least 25 weatherobservations per month.

215 VOSClim ships registered

Deploying and maintaining 89 Ocean Reference Stations

(43 now in service)

NOAA ContributionsFuture NSF OOI

38% complete

Measuring Ocean Carbon Sources and Sinks

1. Inventory 10-year survey2. Ships of opportunity3. Moored buoy time series

IPY -- legacy (sustained)IPY -- legacy (sustained)Arctic Observing NetworkArctic Observing Network

Sustained Arctic Observing Network

International Design to be completed in 2008

Animal Oceanographers?

Satellites:Satellites:• sea surface temperaturesea surface temperature• sea surface heightsea surface height• surface vector windsurface vector wind• ocean colorocean color• sea icesea ice

Data Assimilating Models

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/

Where the Work gets done

SIOUH

UM

UW

PMEL

JCOMM

73 Nations

ESRL

CLSNCDC

FSU

RGOOS

AOML

22 Centers of Expertise *168 People

NDBCCO-OPS

BBSR

In Situ System Funding: $40.8 M54% External42% NOAA04% Private

NCEP

UAF

* 34 Institutions

LSA NODC

OCO

CSARGFDL

LDEOWHOI

FY 2000: Strategic PlanFY 2000: Strategic Plan

• Build the system in the context of a Build the system in the context of a comprehensive, multi-year climate comprehensive, multi-year climate services initiative.services initiative.

• Set a 2000-2010 timeline.Set a 2000-2010 timeline.

• Define the objectives.Define the objectives.

• Define an “initial observing system” to Define an “initial observing system” to accomplish the objectives. Identify accomplish the objectives. Identify annual milestones to complete the annual milestones to complete the initial system over 10 years.initial system over 10 years.

• Emphasize that the initial system must Emphasize that the initial system must be evolutionary.be evolutionary.

• State the obvious: a global observing State the obvious: a global observing system cannot be built with existing system cannot be built with existing budgets.budgets.

• Estimate the NOAA will implement Estimate the NOAA will implement about 50%. Work with national and about 50%. Work with national and international partners to achieve 100%.international partners to achieve 100%.

At the Turn of the Century …