westside future fund retail baseline (in progress)
TRANSCRIPT
March 2016
DRAFT – In Progress
LAND-USE ACTION PLAN
RETAIL MARKET
BASELINE ANALYSIS
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
STUDY AREA BOUNDARIES
Study Area
MARTA Station Area .25-mile Radius
Beltline
H.E
. H
olm
es
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
How many people might shop there?
What competition is there already?
RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION
DEMAND
SUPPLY
SITE
SPACE Which space best suits retailer ’s needs?
Which location will generate the most sales?
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
How many people might shop there?
Demographics – population, household incomes (or total purchasing power), characteristics, future growth
Retailers need to attract a certain number of people at certain income levels in order to survive
Travel patterns – primary travel routes, traffic counts
DEMAND
Store Type Pop. Necessary to Support
Corner Store 500
Convenience Store 2,000
Delicatessan and Bakery 3,000
Snack Bar 3,000
Beauty Parlor 3,000
Drug Store 5,000
Hardware Store 5,000
Bank Branch 5,000
Supermarket 10,000
Thresholds of Community Stores (Rules of Thumb)
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
DEMAND Retai l demand in the Study Area currently comes from four main groups, driven
largely by residents and col lege students from the AUC. Local employees and tourists make up the remaining demand segments.
The impact of these groups could shift over t ime with addit ional employment opportunit ies and BeltLine development.
Residents
Employees Tourists
College
Students
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
How many people might shop there ?
Retailers typically follow demand with differing requirements for their stores.
Westside Study Area meets some, not all, of the national chain requirements.
Examples:
DEMAND
Store Trade Area Population Location/Other
National Drug
Store
2 mile radius 20,000 Intersection of two
main streets with
significant traffic
counts
Grocery Store 3 mile radius
20,000+ On high-visibility,
high traffic corridor
Pet Supermarket 3 mile radius 50,000 25,000 daily vehicle
traffic count
Firehouse Subs 3 mile radius 20,000+ $35,000 median
household income
Denny's 3 mile radius 40,000 30,000 daily vehicle
traffic count
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Populat ion in the Study Area decreased dramatical ly from 2000 to 2010, but is currently trending upwards.
Projected to recover to 79% of 2000 population by 2021.
Study Area accounts for 6.6% of At lanta residents compared to 9.1% in 2000.
POPULATION
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Study Area
City of Atlanta
Relative Population Growth Index , 2000 to 2021
Population Study Area City of Atlanta
2000 Census 38,203 418,156
2010 Census 29,494 420,003
2016 Estimate 29,964 454,629
2021 Projection 30,255 479,455
Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.6% 0.0%
Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.3% 1.3%
Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.2% 1.1%
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
DEMAND
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Persons per Square Mile, By Block Group
116,000 – 618,000
22,000 – 116,000
4,000 – 22,000
1,000 – 4,000
0 – 1,000
Based on Data from ESRI
Populat ion density i s greatest in the western port ion of the Study Area.
Greater population density will help drive retail demand.
Overal l , c i ty of At lanta populat ion density : 3 ,413 persons per Square Mi le
DEMAND POPULATION DENSITY
Source: ESRI
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
The number of households in the study area decreased by 26% from 2000 to 2010 and
Households in the Study Area tend to be sl ight ly larger than those c itywide.
Households Study Area
City of Atlanta
2000 Census 13,197 169,050
2010 Census 9,822 185,484
2016 Estimate 10,089 207,248
2021 Projection 10,366 222,710
Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.9% 0.9%
Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.4% 1.9%
Avg. Annual Growth Forecast 2016-2021 0.5% 1.4%
2016 Est. Avg. Household Size 2.35 2.04
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
CAGR 2000-2010 CAGR 2010-2016 CAGR 2016-2021
Study Area
City of Atlanta
2000-2010 2010-2016 2016-2021 (Forecast)
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
Annual Household Growth
DEMAND HOUSEHOLDS
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
City of At lanta median income is more than double that of the Study Area .
Retai lers look c losely at median household income in deciding where to locate.
10
Household Income Study Area City of Atlanta
2016 Est. Median Household Income $ 24,047 $ 48,878
% of City Median Income 49% 100%
Households by Income
HH with income >$15K 3,318 33% 41,108 20%
HH with income $15K - $35K 3,147 31% 41,037 20%
HH with income $35K - $50K 1,351 13% 23,216 11%
HH with income $50K - $100K 1,686 17% 49,885 24%
HH with income > $100K 588 6% 52,002 25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Less than $15K
$15K - $35K
$35K - $50K
$50K - $100K
More than $100K
Study Area City of Atlanta
Annual Household Income
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
DEMAND INCOME
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Based on Data from ESRI
Median Household, Income,
By Block Group
$105,000 – $200,000
$73,000 – $105,000
$42,000 – $73,000
$10,000 – $42,000
$0 – $10,000
Study Area households are be low m ost ty p ica l income thresholds to att rac t a l a rge num ber o f nat iona l reta i l cha ins .
Prov ides opportuni ty to m eet reta i l dem and wi th loca l reta i l opt ions.
DEMAND INCOME
Source: ESRI
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Based on Data from ESRI
RETAIL SPENDING
DEMAND
Total Retail Spending/HH By
Census Tract
B ecause S tudy Area households are be low average income thresholds , current reta i l spending in the area , wh i le s ign i f icant , i s be low m ore aff luent locat ions.
Source: ESRI
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Westside Study Area spending supports 1.5 million square feet of retail currently (not including motor vehicles & parts)
2/3 of that spending takes place outside of the Westside Study Area.
Total Annual Resident
Consumer Expenditures
Supportable
Square Feet
Current Study Area
Occupied Retail Square
Feet
Westside Study
Area $372,769,436 1,500,000+/- 820,000
DEMAND
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
RETAIL SPENDING & SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
The top three retai l store types:
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Food & Beverage
Foodservice & Drinking Places
account for 43% of retai l spending by Study Area residents .
This spending pattern is
TYPICAL of
most American retai l trade areas.
CURRENT STUDY AREA RETAIL SPENDING BY STORE TYPE
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers, $71,972,352
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores,
$7,472,734
Electronics & Appliances Stores, $10,267,602
Building Material, Garden Equipment Stores, $38,415,840
Food & Beverage Stores, $60,595,683
Health & Personal Care Stores, $24,253,663
Gasoline Stations,
$33,153,890 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores,
$22,321,428
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores,
$11,230,418
General Merchandise Stores, $52,714,646
Miscellaneous Store Retailers, $12,988,608
Non-Store Retailers, $41,161,455
Foodservice & Drinking Places, $58,193,467
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
DEMAND
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
The difference between demand and supply represents an opportunity gap.
The posit ive values by store type in the area signif ies “leakage” of retai l spending to locat ions outside of the local market area.
Nearly a l l store categories in the Study Area show retai l demand potential to capture retai l spending “leakage” back into the Study Area.
Opportunity Gap – Retail Stores, Westside Study Area
-$20,000,000 -$10,000,000 $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliances Stores
Building Material, Garden Equip Stores
Grocery Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Foodservice & Drinking Places
Current Over-Supply Current Under-Supply
DEMAND RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Based on Data from ESRI
DEMAND RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS
Total Retail Opportunity Gap By
Block Group
Nearly a l l block groups west of Lowery Blvd. show opportunit ies to capture retai l leakage.
Source: ESRI
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
1
2
3 4
5
6 7 8
9
10
1. 17,400 2. 17,300 3. 3,750
4. 8,270 5. 15,800 6. 4,200
7. 13,000 8. 5,090 9. 8,130
10. 22,800
2014 GADOT Traffic Counts (ADT - Avg. Daily Trips)
DEMAND TRAFFIC COUNTS
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from GDOT
Traff ic counts show that Study Area roads are general ly local-serving.
National retai lers typical ly seek at least 15,000 ADT and above for new store placement.
Northside Drive provides the heaviest auto traff ic counts in the Study Area (22,000+ ADT).
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Downtown
Atlanta
Study Area
3-Mile Radius
from
MLK/Lowery
0
366,000
Based on Data from CoStar
SUPPLY
While retai l demand general ly outpaces supply within the Study Area boundaries, s ignif icant retai l nodes are located nearby.
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
OVERVIEW
Year Total SF Avg.
SF/Bldg. Vacant SF % Vacant Annual
Absorption Avg Rent
2015 913,894 9,422 94,327 10.3% 500 $ 6.24
2014 913,894 9,422 82,677 9.0% (11,650) $ 6.24
2013 913,894 9,422 88,367 9.7% 5,690 $ 6.39
2012 913,894 9,422 132,600 14.5% 44,233 $ 6.67
2011 913,894 9,422 111,041 12.2% (21,559) $ 6.34
2010 909,894 9,478 119,800 13.2% 12,759 $ 5.75
2009 907,734 9,555 118,670 13.1% 1,030 $ 6.92
2008 907,734 9,555 110,370 12.2% (8,300) $ 7.91
2007 907,734 9,555 40,800 4.5% (69,570) $ 6.35
Study Area City of Atlanta
Total SF 913,894 61,411,089
Avg. SF/Bldg. 9,422 12,683
Vacant SF 94,327 3,750,077
% Vacant 10.3% 6.1%
Annual Absorption 500 103,405
Avg Rent $ 6.24 $ 15.55
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Since the Great Recession, the Study Area’s share of the City ’s occupied retai l space has been below the share of total space.
The Study Area’s share of the c ity ’s retai l space has remained relat ively stable, dropping by approximately 0.2% over the past decade.
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
QTD
Total SF
Occupied SF
Study Area Share of City of Atlanta Retail Square Feet
STUDY AREA SHARE OF RETAIL VS. CITY OF ATLANTA
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
ANNUAL ABSORPTION
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Study Area Annual Retail Space Absorption
City of Atlanta Annual Retail Space Absorption
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,
based on data from CoStar
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Since the onset of the Great Recession retai l vacancy rates in the Study Area have remained above the c ity of At lanta rate.
VACANCY
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
QTD
Study Area
City of Atlanta
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,
based on data from CoStar
Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Retai l rents in the Study Area have remained signif icantly lower than c itywide rents s ince 2008.
AVERAGE RENT
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 QTD
Study Area City of Atlanta
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,
based on data from CoStar