wfs conference gecis presentation
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SA Node projectsTRANSCRIPT
15 Global Challenges andbuilding a South Africa State of the Future Index
energy, environment, education and economics:Imagineering South Africa’s Future to 2030
Towards a 2030 vision for South Africa
6th - 7th May 2010Cape Town, South Africa
Geci Karuri-Sebina, SA Node of the Millennium Project 072 148 1132, [email protected]
Outline
• 15 Global Challenges
• State of the Future Index South Africa (SA-SOFI)
• foresightfordevelopment.org• foresightfordevelopment.org
• Other useful resources
Acknowledgement: Contributions from the Global Millennium Project
SASA--NODE:NODE:•Leadership / oversight•Admin & Fin•Coordination / mgmt•Repository function
SASA--NODE:NODE:•Leadership / oversight•Admin & Fin•Coordination / mgmt•Repository function
EXPERTISE:EXPERTISE:•Knowledge (FFWD)•Information (Scanning)•Tools & methods (SA-SOFI,FRM)•Analysis (BTM)
individuals”
“to deepen expertise infutures amongstinstitutions andindividuals”
“spreading a culture offutures thinking in the
About the SA Node
OUTREACH:OUTREACH:•GMP (GET phase)
•Universities challenge (M-level)
•Seminars & events…•Publications•Communication, Media stat•Website
futures thinking in theregion”NETWORKS:NETWORKS:
•SA Network (web-group)•Regional networks (FFWD)•MP Network (SOF)•Expert groups (Delphis)•Partnership (HSRC, IERI, Wits,IFR, AFI, Presidency, ..)
“to galvanise andmobilize southernAfrican experts andnetworks for globalfutures activity /collaboration”
2009 global SOFI analysis showed:
Getting better…• Literacy rate• School enrollment• Countries having or thought to
have plans for nuclearweapons
Threats…
• Climate pollution
• Food shortages
• Diseaseshave plans for nuclearweapons
• GDP per unit of energy use• Number of major armed
conflicts• Population growth• Physician• Internet users• Infant mortality• Life expectancy at birth• Women in parliaments
• Diseases
• Wars & Disasters
• Transnational organisedcrime
• Human rights
• Recession
And the verdict is…
• Things could get much better, or much worsefor some time…
Recession scenario
National SOFIwith TIA
1.2
SA-SOFI 2007
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Baseline
UQ
Med
LQ
2007 SA-SOFI analysis showed:
Getting better…
• Infant mortality
• Freedom
• Women in parliament
Getting worse…
• Life expectancy
• HIV/AIDS
• Pollution • Women in parliament• Pollution
• Biodiversity
• Water self-sufficiency
• Inequality
• Poverty
The SOFI approach
Method
• What variables should beincluded?– A Delphi study asking experts
for advice on importantvariables
Types
• Global
• National comparison
• National focusvariables
• How can the variables beforecast?– By using standard “:best fit”
curves
• How can the variables beweighted?– Using Delphi judgments
• National focus
Global Millennium Prize South AfricaGMP-SA
Thabang Sebetoane of Kroonstad wins theinternatioanl contest!
Award:12 May 2010, Mexico Coty
Hope withoutInclusion
=Dependency
Education Health Agriculture Infrastructure Economy
Inclusion of Youth…Inclusion of Youth…
Capacitywithout
Hope=
Terrorism
No Hope &No Inclusion
=Conflict
Inclusion of Youth…Inclusion of Youth…
Mu
lti-
po
lar
glo
bal
geo
-po
litic
s…M
ult
i-p
ola
rgl
ob
alge
o-p
olit
ics…
foresightfordevelopment.org
“Between persons of equal income there is no social distinction except thedistinction of merit. Money is nothing: character, conduct, and capacity areeverything. There would be great people and ordinary people and little people,but the great would always be those who had done great things, and never theidiots whose mothers had spoiled them and whose fathers had left them ahundred thousand a year; and the little would be persons of small minds andmean characters, and not poor persons who had never had a chance. That iswhy idiots are always in favor of inequality of income (their only chance ofeminence), and the really great in favor of equality.”
George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
Geci Karuri-Sebina, SA Node of the Millennium Project 072 148 1132, [email protected]
Population by 2050…
1. India 1.6 billion people
2. China 1.4 billion
3. United States 400 million
4. Pakistan 309 million
5. Indonesia 280 million
6. Nigeria 259 million
15. Russia 108 million
16. Japan 103 million
17. Iran 100 million
18. Turkey 99 million
19. Uganda 93 million
20. Tanzania 85 million7. Bangladesh 256 million
8. Brazil 254 million
9. DRC 187 million
10. Ethiopia 183 million
11. Philippines 141 million
12. Mexico 132 million
13. Egypt 121 million
14. Vietnam 120 million
21. Kenya 85 million
22. United Kingdom 80 million
• Thailand 73 million
• South Africa 56 million
• Malaysia 40 million
World Population Prospects , 2008
In the 1990s, countries with a largeyouth bulge were much more likelyto experience an outbreak of civilconflict.
Population Action International,2007
Some other issues
• Public health & health systems– Inclusion– Affordability– Disaster response
• Transportation– Costs– Costs– Environment
• “Government service delivery”– Dependency– Universal access… to what?
• Decentralisation without capacity– Local government– City growth strategies