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Guy Lundy : SA Reasons to BelieveTRANSCRIPT
South Africa towards 2030:Reasons to Believe
Guy Lundy
Creating the future
“We don’t describe the future we see;we see the future we describe”
Philip Spies
George Bernard Shaw
“Newspapers areunable todiscriminate…discriminate…between abicycle accidentand the collapseof civilisation.”
We live in interesting times…
Long waves…
Warof
USCivil
WorldWar I
VietnamWar
Roaring20s
Oil
2000s
1780 1810 1820 1830 1860 1870 1880 1900 1915 1925 1940 1970 1980 2010
of1812
CivilWar
OilcrisisGreat
Depression
WorldWar II
Steam power Railways Electricity & cars Computers
War onTerror
…and Black Swans
The world we live in
• Globalisation is interlinked with:
– Financial crisis
World’s safest banks
1. Canada2. New Zealand3. Australia4. Chile5. Hong Kong
40. France44. Switzerland47. Botswana103. Germany108. United States5. Hong Kong
6. South Africa7. Namibia8. Singapore9. Panama10. Brazil
108. United States118. Argentina130. Iceland131. Zimbabwe132. Mongolia133. Ukraine
Source: World Economic Forum
The world we live in• Globalisation is interlinked with:
– Financial crisis
– Environmental threats
– Aging populations
• Emergence of BRIC countries
African growth
• More successful countries
• Chindian investments
• Scramble by former dominantplayers to reassert themselvesplayers to reassert themselves
• Telecommunications andmedia explosion
• The average African – young,urban and educated
• Skills returning
South Africa: Has the party ended?
• Relatively low inflation
Historical inflation in SA
Source: RMB
South Africa: Has the party ended?
• Relatively low inflation
• Quite low interest rates
Interest rates at a 30-year low
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Prime
South Africa: Has the party ended?
• Relatively low inflation
• Quite low interest rates
• Decent growth till recently
• Confidence took a knock
Business confidence
The Eskom factor…
On the upside: South Africa 2010
• 64 matches
• 2.7 million spectators
• 300,000 potential tourists?
• Cumulative televisionaudience of 28 billion
Changing the way the world sees us
Joining the “cool” places
Barcelona 1992 Sydney 2000 Germany 2006
A new view
Infrastructure improvements
• Roads
• Bus Rapid Transit
• Train station upgrades
• Gautrain
• Pedestrianisation• Pedestrianisation
• Bandwidth
• Digital TV
• New mobile masts
• Airports
• Power upgrades
• Harbours
The Growing Middle Class
• Black EconomicEmpowerment &Affirmative Action
• Education• Education
• Urbanisation
• Service delivery
Poverty & Inequality remainmajor challenges
President Zuma:A Reagan-like character?
The Power behind the Power
The youth of today (and tomorrow)
• Non-racialism
• Cultural melting pot
• Mixed relationships• Mixed relationships
• Common language
The South African puzzleCorruption
UnemploymentAIDS
PovertyZimbabwe
Challenges
Unemployment
CrimeJulius
Malema
Eskom
Racism
Education
“A positive future is not a spectator’s future,it’s a participant’s future”
Creating the future
Philip Spies