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What Do Americans Want in a Leader?

Alexander Hamilton promised Americans that the Constitution's process of election for the president "afford a moral certainty ... that there will be a constant probability of seeing the station [of president] filled by characters preeminent for ability and virtue."

OK, maybe not….

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The Best

•  Survey of Historians

The Best

• Survey of John Q Public

The Worst

US News and world report

Buchanan Harding Johnson Pierce Fillmore

Tyler Grant Hoover Nixon Taylor

Carter

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Unrealistic Expectations “If Men were Angels”

•  Gentle and kind, but forceful, cunning, and decisive •  Common man who can give an uncommon performance •  Above politics, yet a skilled politician and coalition builder •  Inspirational leader who never promises more than can be

delivered •  Programmatic but also pragmatic and flexible leader •  Innovative and inventive and ahead of the times, yet always

responsive to popular majorities •  A moral leader, yet not too preachy and moralizing •  A bipartisan leader of all the people, but a leader of his

political party •  A “take charge” leader, yet someone who listens

James Barber’s Presidential Character

• Loosely defined because founding fathers trusted Washington to set the traditions as he governed

• An institution made a piece at a time by successive presidents

Successful Presidents

•  Jefferson reaches out to Congress to put together the beginnings of political parties

•  Jackson’s forceful personality extended electoral participation to the masses

• Lincoln expanded the administrative reach of the office

• The Roosevelts demonstrated the rhetorical possibilities

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A Focus of our Feelings

• Congress is a tangle of committees and complex procedures

• The bureaucracy is a maze of agencies

• The President is one man on the top and trying to do a job. We can understand this.

Predicting Presidents

• Character- developed in childhood • World view- developed in adolescence • Style- developed in early adulthood • Power situation • Climate of expectations

Style, Not Charisma

• Style is the president’s habitual way of performing his three political role:

1. Rhetoric 2. Personal Relations 3. Homework

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World View- How he sees the world

• Consists of his primary, politically relevant beliefs and particularly his conceptions human nature and central moral conflicts

• Reality- How things work in politics

Character

• How the president orients himself towards life

• His self-esteem is his prime resource • How do they judge themselves

Climate of Expectations

• Support he has from public, interest groups, party balance in Congress, Supreme Court decisions

• People look to President for reassurance– “return to normalcy”

“progress and action” • People’s needs for legitimacy– to

personify our best in an inspiring way

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Experience or Inspiring

"No man will ever bring out of the presidency the reputation which carries him into it," Thomas Jefferson

President Ratings Highest Lowest Harry Truman 87% 23% Dwight Eisenhower 79% 48% John F. Kennedy 83% 56% Lyndon Johnson 79% 35% Richard Nixon 67% 24% Gerald Ford 71% 37% Jimmy Carter 75% 28% Ronald Reagan 68% 35% George H.W. Bush 89% 29% Bill Clinton 73% 37% George W. Bush 90% 29%

Events that Raises Approval

•  “Rally around the Flag”

War Threat from Abroad Crisis •  “To bind up our

nation’s wounds” •  Good Economy •  Reelection

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Reasons for Approval Changes

•  Expectations that are raised in campaigns are dashed as time, resources and options change.

•  Things that go wrong are blamed on presidents, whether or not the presidents have the power to deal with these matters.

•  Rising disapproval of incumbent presidents is often influenced by inflation, economy and unemployment.

•  Major negative events influence how people evaluate presidents. (Watergate, Vietnam, riots, Iranian hostages, scandals)

•  Press and media criticism accumulates over time and sharpens the people dissatisfaction with a president. Perhaps too much time in office wears out our welcome for a president.