What Goes Around, Comes Around

2 Examples of the Past, to forecast the Future

There is nothing new under the sunEccl 1-9

• The past is the foundation we stand on today to reach for tomorrow

Example Past Winter

• How many people were looking at sequence of events in 1917-1918?

• Lack of hurricane season, even with favorable SST set up

• Major ne pacific warm pool• Major cold over US.• 93-94: Major ne Pacific warm pool

Dec 1917 SST vs this year

Dec 1993

This Year

17/18 93-94

Winter This year

Our forecast Evolution July(Nov-Feb)

Verification of Nov-Feb

Nov 1 forecast

Nov 22 Final

Example.. End game of AMO/hurricane/arctic ice idea

• AMO cooling, warmest water at end of warm amo western Atlantic

• Pattern similar to 1950s• Arctic ice starts to increase as the AMO cools

East Coast hurricanes in the 1950s

CURRENT WATER TEMPS

1951-1955

1956-60

THE GREAT NEAR MISS 1961-ESTHER

1966-1980

Before SANDY, DORIA tried it 1967

Near Miss Major, Gerda 1969

1981-1996

Last time positive Summer anomaly

Models still trying for positive extent, height of melt season this year

Reason why, until now, east coast spared.. SST not in wheelhouse

But it is now, as N Atlantic starts cooling

So here is the test:

• End game of AMO near, East coast hurricane threats enhanced

• But end of arctic ice scam in site• Can’t wait for AGW agenda excuses