what hr will look like in 2020 – a shrm research insight, brian dickson
DESCRIPTION
As part of the SHRM Experience, this session is sourced from leading edge SHRM research coupled with global expert opinion surrounding: how will HR change in the future, specifically what will HR being doing in 2020. Key topics in this session are the effects of social media on performance and talent management, generational divides and globalisation. This presentation was used at HR Summit and Expo 2013 www.hrsummitexpo.comTRANSCRIPT
HR 2020Brian DicksonSenior Vice President, Professional Development
December 12, 2012
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012
2
Society for Human Resource Management
250,000+ HR professional members 600 US chapters 400 staff with HQ in Alexandria, Virginia USA Offices in India, UAE, China 140,000 certified HR research, best practices, emerging trends Elevate the profession, support the professional
A fool’s errand? “Recency Bias” Pattern Recognition Pattern Discontinuities US energy industry The rise of Dubai
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle The more we know, the less we know
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 3
HR 2020
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 4
Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020
Talent
Innovation
Managing Change
2020
HR 2022 Poll ©SHRM 2012 5
6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
ChinaIndia
NigeriaVietnam
IndonesiaColombia
EgyptTurkey
BrazilRussia
South KoreaMexico
South AfricaUS
CanadaJapan
UKGermany
FranceItaly
Real GDP, average annual % change, 2012-2016.
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be the threebiggest challenges facing HR executives at yourorganization?
7
59%
52%
36%
34%
33%
20%
15%
13%
11%
6%
51%
29%
44%
21%
41%
17%
33%
12%
24%
1%
Retaining and rewarding the best employees
Developing the next generation of corporateleaders
Creating a corporate culture that attracts thebest employees to our organization
Remaining competitive in the talentmarketplace
Finding employees with the increasinglyspecialized skills we need
Creating smooth and efficient HR processesthat ensure a good employee experience
Finding the right employees in the rightmarkets where we do business around the…
Creating an employee-centric, service-oriented HR organization
Breaking down cultural barriers that make itdifficult to create a truly global company
Other
2012 (n = 483)
2010 (n = 465)
Note: Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options. Respondents who answered “don’t know” were excluded from thisanalysis.
Over the next 10 years, what do you think will be thebiggest investment challenge facing organizations?
8
43%
22%
19%
14%
3%
47%
29%
11%
12%
2%
Obtaining human capital and optimizinghuman capital investments
Obtaining financial capital and optimizingfinancial capital investments
Obtaining technology and optimizingtechnological capital investments
Obtaining intellectual capital andoptimizing intellectual capital investments
Obtaining physical capital and optimizingphysical capital investments
2012 (n = 484)
2010 (n = 449)
Note: n = 484. Percentages do not total 100% due to rounding.
9
Recruiting Difficulty
Compared with [previous month], have labor market conditions during [currentmonth], made it more or less difficult to recruit highly qualified individuals to fill thosepositions that are of the greatest strategic importance to your firm, i.e., to put “A”candidates into your “A” jobs?
Demographic trends / aging workforce in some key countries Europe, Japan, China
Suboptimal educational systems Many graduates lacking needed skills (US)
Policy Distortions US immigration policies Low labor force participation rates in some countries
Declining labor mobility in some markets
Skill need vs. skill development cycle time mismatch
Exploding demand for STEM skills BRIC nations and other emerging economies Global STEM deficiency
10
Global Talent Supply – Stress Factors
11
Global Talent Challenge
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2012, Prepare for Opportunity
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 12
Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020
Talent
Innovation
Managing Change
2020
Technology and Innovation
13
Moore’s Law Sustained pace of technology advance
Increasing efficiency in diffusion of innovation Printing press = hundreds of years Internet = decade + Smartphones = 3 years?
Rapid emergence of new eco-systems Apple Facebook US energy reinvigoration Dubai
An Age of “Creative Upheaval”
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Workforce of 2020+
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Exceptional Technical Talent Specialized, committed, globally-sourced
Exceptional Generalists Interdisciplinary, left & right brained, strong
communication skills
Exceptional Leaders The integrating force, creators of new ecosystems Steve Jobs
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 16
Key HR Challenges – Thru 2020
Talent
Technology
Managing Change
2020
Change Acceleration
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 17
“Change is the only Constant” (Herodotus) A required core competency for HR Strong team of internal consultants Interdisciplinary Business focus Thorough knowledge of operations
Challenge – and opportunity – for HR
18
HR Competencies for the Future
Ten years from now, which of the following competenciesdo you see being most critical for the HR professional?
19
42%
40%
37%
35%
30%
26%
25%
21%
17%
Business Acumen
Organizational Leadership and Navigation
Relationship Management
Communication
Critical Evaluation
HR Technical Expertise and Practice
Consultation
Ethical Practice
Global and Cultural Effectiveness
Note: n = 472. Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options.
Ten years from now, when considering Business Acumenfor HR professionals, which of the following components(i.e., sub-competencies) will be most critical?
20
45%
41%
41%
28%
25%
18%
17%
17%
16%
14%
11%
6%
1%
HR and Organizational Metrics/Analytics/Business…
Knowledge of Business Operations/Logistics
Strategic Agility
Business Knowledge
Knowledge of Government and Regulatory Guidelines
Knowledge of Finance and Accounting
Economic Awareness
Knowledge of Labor Markets
Knowledge of Technology
Systems Thinking
Effective Administration
Knowledge of Sales and Marketing
Other
Note: n = 469. Percentages do not total 100% due to multiple response options.
The HR Team for the Future
HR 2020 © SHRM 2012 21
Strong technical and behavioral competencies Emphasis on analytical skills, operational knowledge,
technology fluency
Invest in data systems, analysis, & psychometrics More science, less art in HR
Partner with IT Understand impacts of technology on business Leverage technology to transform of HR functions
Build in-house capabilities to drive change
