what’s been happening on energy markets? · 1.33 1.09 1.05 0.70 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10...
TRANSCRIPT
What’s been happening on energy markets?
A. Halff
Centre Cournot
New York October 3, 2017
420 West 118th Street, New York NY, 10027 | @ColumbiaUEnergy | energypolicy.columbia.edu | [email protected]
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• Narratives come undone as soon as they take hold
• Market unpredictability vs. dumbing down of the storyline
• Impact vs. insight
• L’envers de la médaille
• More simplistic messages
• Once adopted, views become entrenched
• Internet memory
• Caveat: self-fulfilling fallacies
Jokes played by the oil market on its
commentators
2
Last #1 hit of the old regime
3
Dueling song sheets
4
Hit #2: The rudderless market
5
• New price regime?
• “Death of OPEC”
• Shale as swing producer?
• Price elasticity
• Short cycle
• Untested
• Distributed
• Financially vulnerable
• High volatility
• “Brace yourself”
Hit #3: The return of OPEC
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• Premature obits
• La relève
• Barkindo effect
• New generation
• Master of storytelling
• Heads of state shuttle diplomacy
• Selfies
• Coalition building
• La grande entente
• Missing post-mortem
Hit #4: Lower for longer (again)
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• OPEC’s catch 22
• Shale resilience
• Productivity gains
• Permian miracle
• Endless learning curve
• More when it’s coming from
Limits of shale
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• Disappointing growth
• Lower guidance
• Cost inflation
• Tight labor
• Congestion
• Sweetspotting
• Finance crunch
Back to square 1?
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Catchy tunes
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Old & new
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1.33
1.09
1.05
0.70
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2015 = 1
Oil Demand Forecast Range
Max (Statoil Rivalry)
Median Oil
Mean Oil
Min (IEA 450 / Statoil Renewal)
1.43
1.27
1.23
0.94
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2015 = 1
Energy Demand Forecast Range
Max (IEA Current Policies)
Median Oil
Mean Oil
Min (Statoil Renewal)
Include BP, Exxon, Carbon Tracker (3 scenarios), Statoil (3 scenarios), EIA, IEA (3 scenarios), OPEC
Mile-Wide Ranges
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Hiding in Plain Sight
13
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2014 F2020 (NPS)
Mto
e
IEA Estimates of Dev. Asia Oil Demand for Power Generation
Source: WEO 2016
China
India
Other Dev. Asia
Non-road transport
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- Irrepressible demand?
- Consumer side - Recycling / Plastic in the ocean
- Consumer behavior
- Supply side - Naphtha vs LPG, Pulp, other Bio…
Petrochemicals
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- Large-scale urbanization forecast in South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa
- ‘Smart Cities’
• Opportunities and Challenges
Urbanization
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Thank you
Antoine Halff Sr. Research Scholar; Director, Global Oil Markets
Program
+1 (212) 853-0116
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