WHAT’S NEW IN DATA?Liesl

Overview• Changes in data availability

• Climate for Federal and state agency data provision• Implementation of the American Community Survey (ACS)

• Other data challenges• Confidential data/suppression• Synthetic data• Survey-based data

• Alternative data sources and other options

Overview• Changes in data availability

• Climate for Federal and state agency data provision• Procedural changes with ACS

• Other data challenges• Confidential data/suppression• Synthetic data• Survey-based data

• Alternative data sources and other options

Budgetary/Political Threats• Already targeted

• Bureau of Economic Analysis Local Area Personal Income & Employment

• Bureau of Labor Statistics special initiatives (e.g. Green Jobs surveys)

• VulnerableData “arms” of other agencies including Economic Research Service (USDA), Energy Information Administration (Dept. of Energy), etc.

• Always under threat• Census Bureau in general• American Community Survey in specific

ACS Implementation

http://www.icip.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/uploads/help/census-overview-icip.pdf

Overview• Data availability

• Climate for Federal and state agency data provision• Procedural changes with ACS

• Other data challenges• Confidential data/suppression• Synthetic data• Survey-based data

• Alternative data sources and other options

Confidential and Suppressed Data

19000 Iowa 186040 186422 188501 190218 192401 197045 202124 205073 207870 209496 21154619001 Adair, IA (D) (D) (D) (D) 441 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D)19003 Adams, IA 325 343 366 365 350 371 385 418 415 390 (D)19005 Allamakee, IA(D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) 752 76019007 Appanoose, IA 761 791 (D) (D) 824 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D)19009 Audubon, IA(D) 340 (D) 352 337 (D) (D) 326 301 297 (D)19011 Benton, IA (D) (D) (D) (D) 877 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D)19013 Black Hawk, IA10076 10241 10321 10471 10690 10973 11206 11402 11511 11380 11440

20112005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CA25N Total full-time and part-time employment by NAICS industry 1/Private nonfarm employment: Health care and social assistance (number of jobs)Bureau of Economic AnalysisCounty

Fips Area 2001 2002 2003 2004

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Appanoose, IA

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Appanoose, IA

Synthetic Data• When a small-area data set looks too good to be true, it

probably is.• Health status indicators from BRFSS• Commuting data from On the Map (LED/LEHD)• Air quality indicators

• Requires a judgment call on when to use and how to document

Survey-Based Data• Many small area data sets from Census Bureau are

survey-based and are published with MOE values.• ACS• SAIPE• SAHIE

• How much does this matter for our project?(clue: A LOT!!!!)

• How do other data providers handle this issue?(clue: DERELICTION OF DUTY)

ACS Sample Sizes by County Type

BEALE CodeNumber of

CountiesTotal

Population

Average County

Population Size

Unweighed Sample Count

of the Population

Sample Count as a % of the

Total Population

Average Sample Size

1 414 161,648,912 390,456 10,727,856 6.6% 25,913

2 325 60,144,428 185,060 4,406,263 7.3% 13,558

3 351 29,735,817 84,717 2,373,069 8.0% 6,761

4 218 15,104,618 69,287 1,335,624 8.8% 6,127

5 105 5,767,430 54,928 510,047 8.8% 4,858

6 608 15,472,625 25,448 1,594,023 10.3% 2,622

7 449 8,419,636 18,752 901,084 10.7% 2,007

8 235 2,447,477 10,415 309,377 12.6% 1,316

9 433 2,705,875 6,249 396,721 14.7% 916

0%

10%

20%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Metropolitan Large Urban Small Urban Rural

Aver

age

CV

County Urban-Rural Continuum (BEALE) Code

Average Coefficient of Variation for the College-Educated Population by County Type

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Metropolitan Large Urban Small Urban Rural

Aver

age

CV

County Urban-Rural Continuum (BEALE) Code

Average Coefficient of Variation for theForeign-Born Population by County Type

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Metropolitan Large Urban Small Urban Rural

Aver

age

CV

County Urban-Rural Continuum (BEALE) Code

Average Coefficient of Variation for Same-Sex Unmarried Couple Households by County Type

8.7

5.0

6.4

9.9 8.0

11.3

8.0

14.5

8.3

8.0 9.46.57.6

11.3

5.8

8.09.57.7

9.7

8.7

8.9

8.9

4.8

9.8

8.7

6.6

8.88.0

8.1

7.87.2

11.3

11.3

13.0

11.3

10.2

9.8

13.7

10.5

9.6

7.4

6.5

12.7

11.0

11.3

7.2

19.0

7.9

9.1

11.7

11.2

11.9

11.4

8.8

11.4

11.3

11.7

10.413.3 10.8

10.5

20.0

10.9

12.6

16.8

13.3

10.1

12.1

8.7

15.5

8.89.3

11.4 11.4 12.3 13.219.2 12.9 16.8

13.6

11.4

14.6

12.011.1

11.0

11.7

12.0

16.7 13.314.914.113.810.7 12.915.514.1

12.3

10.6 10.3

County Poverty Rates, As Published

Estimated Rate4.8 percent to 9.4 percent

9.4 percent to 11.7 percent

11.7 percent to 20.0 percent(State of Iowa = 11.4 percent, plus or minus 0.2 percent)

2.7

1.0

1.4

1.2

1.7

1.2

1.8

2.3

0.71.5 1.7

2.1

1.8 1.4

1.8

2.8

1.4 2.8

2.2

1.0

0.8

1.8 0.60.81.7

1.5

1.91.7

2.73.0

1.4

1.72.1

1.5

2.2

1.7

2.0 2.2

1.3

2.5

1.3

1.22.6

2.1

2.6

1.8

1.5

1.9

2.2

1.7

2.81.0

1.7

2.31.32.2

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.9 2.4

3.0 1.62.3 2.0 3.9 2.21.9 2.8

4.5

2.3

1.7

2.6

3.2

3.93.1

1.0

1.62.8

2.6

1.4

3.3 2.01.4

2.5

3.23.0

1.8

2.7 1.83.12.52.3

2.7

1.8 2.5 2.72.02.6

County Poverty Rates: Margins of Error

CV0509CV < 10% (very good)

CV 10-25% (good)

CV > 25% (caution)

(Counties shaded by coefficient of variation, but labeled with margin of error values)

6.0 to 11.4

3.8 to 6.2

10.3 to 12.3

9.6 to 13.0

5.2 to 7.6

9.5 to 13.1

13.1 to 15.9

9.5 to 10.9

8.4 to 11.4

6.3 to 9.79.5 to

13.19.1 to 11.9

9.5 to 13.1

9.9 to 15.5

6.6 to 9.4

8.2 to 13.8

9.1 to 13.5

7.5 to 9.111.6 to

15.8

10.7 to 15.3

6.2 to 9.8

8.8 to 10.0

5.7 to 7.3

5.9 to 9.3

4.3 to 7.3

6.1 to 9.9

7.8 to 11.2

7.7 to 13.1

6.3 to 9.1

9.1 to 12.5

9.6 to 13.8

8.2 to 11.2

6.5 to 10.9

7.2 to 10.6

9.2 to 13.2

6.7 to 11.1

3.5 to 6.1

7.3 to 12.3

9.2 to 11.8

9.3 to 14.5

9.3 to 13.5

8.3 to 13.5

6.9 to 10.5

5.1 to 8.1

6.9 to 10.7

6.3 to 9.7

8.6 to 14.2

6.4 to 9.8

6.5 to 9.1

9.1 to 13.5

8.1 to 12.1

9.3 to 14.1

9.7 to 14.5

4.8 to 9.6

9.3 to 15.3

9.1 to 13.7

9.4 to 13.4

18.0 to 20.0

7.9 to 11.7

5.1 to 14.1

5.1 to 9.7

4.8 to 8.2

11.0 to 15.6

10.3 to 16.3

18.8 to 21.2

10.4 to 14.8

15.8 to 17.8

7.5 to 15.3

12.6 to 18.4

4.1 to 10.3

11.6 to 14.8

15.3 to 23.1

8.3 to 13.9

8.4 to 13.6

6.5 to 9.3

10.7 to 15.1

9.2 to 14.2

7.3 to 10.9

8.0 to 13.4

14.0 to 19.6

11.0 to 16.2

6.3 to 11.3

11.4 to 17.8

6.9 to 10.5

8.1 to 13.1

6.1 to 11.5

8.3 to 12.3

6.7 to 11.9

13.4 to 20.0

13.5 to 16.311.8 to

16.410.9 to

17.310.8 to

16.812.4 to

18.6

9.6 to 15.0

11.0 to 13.0

10.4 to 13.6

11.3 to 15.3 11.1 to

14.7

County Poverty Rates: 90% Confidence Intervals

(State of Iowa = 11.4 percent, plus or minus 0.2 percent)

County Poverty Rates: Which Group??

County groupLow group

Middle group

High group

County Poverty Rates: Which Group??

County groupLow or middle group

Low, middle, or high group

Middle or high group

8.7

5.0

6.4

9.9 8.0

11.3

8.0

14.5

8.3

8.0 9.46.57.6

11.3

5.8

8.09.57.7

9.7

8.7

8.9

8.9

4.8

9.8

8.7

6.6

8.88.0

8.1

7.87.2

11.3

11.3

13.0

11.3

10.2

9.8

13.7

10.5

9.6

7.4

6.5

12.7

11.0

11.3

7.2

19.0

7.9

9.1

11.7

11.2

11.9

11.4

8.8

11.4

11.3

11.7

10.413.3 10.8

10.5

20.0

10.9

12.6

16.8

13.3

10.1

12.1

8.7

15.5

8.89.3

11.4 11.4 12.3 13.219.2 12.9 16.8

13.6

11.4

14.6

12.011.1

11.0

11.7

12.0

16.7 13.314.914.113.810.7 12.915.514.1

12.3

10.6 10.3

County Poverty Rates: As Published

Estimated Rate4.8 to 9.4 percent

9.4 to 11.7 percent

11.7 to 20.0 percent

(State of Iowa = 11.4 percent, plus or minus 0.2 percent)

County Poverty Rates: Compared to State Average

Estimated RateLower than state average

Not statistically different

Higher than state average

Catuion: CV>25%(State of Iowa = 11.4 percent, plus or minus 0.2 percent)

Overview• Changes in data availability

• Climate for Federal and state agency data provision• Procedural changes with ACS

• Other data challenges• Confidential data/suppression• Synthetic data• Survey-based data

• Alternative data sources and other options

Topic/Measure Non ACS Source?Population counts (total, age, race, ethnicity) Decennial and Annual Estimates

Migration patterns Net migration only

Family size and relationships Decennial

Educational attainment No

Occupation No

Employment characteristics of families No

Foreign-born, place of origin, year of entry No

Language spoken at home No

Household income No

Poverty status SAIPE (also has MOEs)

Health insurance status SAHIE (also has MOEs)

Disability status Qualified no

Public assistance income by source Not for long

Housing characteristics (age, value, …) No

Implications for Our Project

Alternative Data Providers?• Reality check

• Most private sector providers are using data from the same Federal sources we are.

• If they’re not, assume the worst about data quality (non-representative samples, unknown methods & motives).

• State agency data collection fulfills administrative needs, not data analysis needs.

• State agencies face budgetary and political constraints, too.

• My philosophy• Accept our reality• Don’t apologize, EDUCATE!!!

http://www.povertyusa.org/the-state-of-poverty/poverty-map-county/

Poor: No acknowledgement of uncertainty in map or text

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/graphics/2012/poverty-maps/index2.htm

Fair: No acknowledgement of uncertainty in map or text, but uses a reference value that allows for significance testing

Good: No acknowledgement of uncertainty in map, but table includes confidence interval values