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When will CCS be commercially
viable?
Presentation to CCS in Next Decade
London, 20 June 2011
Joan MacNaughton
© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Key Messages
• CCS essential and affordable on both gas and coal.
• Fossil power with CCS costs no more than renewables.
• Alstom will have a commercial offering by 2015.
• CCS deployment needs further financial support:
– (national) feed-in tariffs; and
– (EU) more funding and financing for demonstration projects
• EU industry has led in this high technology area. But others including China are making faster progress on demonstrations.
• If we do not accelerate, we will lose a huge industrial growth opportunity.
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
The need for CCS on coal and gas
• IPCC 2007: Max GHG 450 ppm for +2°C MAX
• Must decarbonise power generation
• CCS necessary because:
2035: fossil still 50%
Fossil will remain strong until ~2050
IEA : -2,7 GtCO2 CCS in 2035
EU Power Emissions: 42% from coal, 56% from gas
Source: IEA – WEO 2010
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
The need for CCS on coal and gas
450CPS
671
EUROPE - MtCO2
Current Policies Scenario
and 450 Scenario to 2035
COAL
104
495
130
450CPS
GAS
CCS needed on both coal and gas, but will it be competitive?
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Source: IEA – WEO 2010
© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Total LacqFrance - 30 MWth
Oxy - Gas
Vattenfall Schwarze PumpeGermany - 30 MWth
Oxy - Lignite
Vattenfall JänschwaldeGermany - 250 MWe
Oxy - Lignite
Dow Chemical Co. USA, West Virginia
Advanced Amines - Coal
AEP MountaineerUSA - 58 MWth
Chilled Ammonia - Coal
Coming
TCM MongstadNorway - 40 MWth
Chilled Ammonia - Gas
TransaltaCanada - >200 MWe
Post - Coal
Alstom BSF WindsorUS - 15 MWthOxy - Coals
CET - Getica (Turceni)Romania – >250MWe
Chilled Ammonia - Lignite
Selected for receiving EEPR fundingSelected by Alberta and Federal Canadian funding
Selected by US DOE to receive CCPI Round 3 funding
EDF – Le HavreFrance – 5 MWth Adv.
Amines - Coal
PGE BelchatowPoland – 260 MWe Adv.
Amines - Lignite
Pre-commercial Projects
AEP MountaineerUSA – 235MWe
Chilled Ammonia - Coal
Alstom activity on pilots and demonstrations 1st and 2nd generation CCS
RFCS EU - Darmstad Germany – 1 MWth
Chemical looping - Coal
DOE/Alstom WindsorUS – 3 MWth
Chemical looping - Coal
Drax - SelbyUK - 426 MWe
Oxy – Hard Coal
2nd GEN
2nd GEN
NER300 appl.
NER300 appl.
NER300 appl.
NER300 appl.
Operating
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
• 90 % CO2 Capture and 99% CO2 Purity demonstrated
• Feasibility of integrated capture – transport – storage established on a power
plant
• Energy penalty < 20%, and will approach 15%
• Solid base for design and cost control
• Oxy and Post have good potential
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
CCS OXY
CCS PCC
15%
CCS PLANT – ENERGY PENALTY
% AGAINST MWe net REF PLANT
Hardcoal CCS commercial plant size - Europe
Source: Alstom
Pilots show that CCS works
6
© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Total LacqFrance - 30 MWth
Oxy - Gas
Vattenfall Schwarze PumpeGermany - 30 MWth
Oxy - Lignite
Vattenfall JänschwaldeGermany - 250 MWe
Oxy - Lignite
Dow Chemical Co. USA, West Virginia
Advanced Amines - Coal
AEP MountaineerUSA - 58 MWth
Chilled Ammonia - Coal
Coming
TCM MongstadNorway - 40 MWth
Chilled Ammonia - Gas
TransaltaCanada - >200 MWe
Post - Coal
Alstom BSF WindsorUS - 15 MWthOxy - Coals
CET - Getica (Turceni)Romania – >250MWe
Chilled Ammonia - Lignite
EDF – Le HavreFrance – 5 MWth Adv.
Amines - Coal
PGE BelchatowPoland – 260 MWe Adv.
Amines - Lignite
Pre-commercial Projects
AEP MountaineerUSA – 235MWe
Chilled Ammonia - Coal
RFCS EU - DarmstadGermany – 1 MWth
Chemical looping - Coal
DOE/Alstom WindsorUS – 3 MWth
Chemical looping - Coal
Drax - SelbyUK - 426 MWe
Oxy – Hard Coal
2nd GEN
2nd GEN
NER300 appl.
NER300 appl.
NER300 appl.
NER300 appl.
Operating
CCS Experience: 13 Pilot/Demonstrations
Component Manufacturer
Alstom Know-how for a
grounded CCS Cost Study
A comprehensive study of those costs
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
40
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
42€
CCSREF
2015 2030
Transport
&Storage
Fuel Cost
CCS/Coal REF
Capex & Opex
43€
65€
55€
CCSREF
Euro / MWh net
REF
2015 2030
GAS - EUROPE
84€
49€ 50€
73€
CCSREF CCS
HARDCOAL - EUROPE
Source: Alstom – PCC
CCS/Gas REF
Capex & Opex
+71%
+46%
+49%+33%
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
40
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
1 0 0
42€
CCSREF
2015 2030
Transport
&Storage
Fuel Cost
CCS/Coal REF
Capex & Opex
43€
65€
55€
CCSREF
Euro / MWh net
REF
2015 2030
GAS - EUROPE
84€
49€ 50€
73€
CCSREF CCS
HARDCOAL - EUROPE
Source: Alstom – PCC
CCS/Gas REF
Capex & Opex
+71%
+46%
+49%+33%
Cost increase <50% by 2030 for both Coal and Gas
Cost of CO2 avoided: 37 €/t for coal and 49 €/t for gas in 2030
CCS essential and affordable on both gas and coal
CCS Cost of
Electricity Impact
is lower on gas
than on coal !
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
8465
0
100
200
300
400
Nuclear
Hydro
Geo
ther
mal
CCG
T CCS 2
015
Ons
hore
Win
d
PC Hard
coal C
CS 201
5
Offs
hore
Win
d
Solar
PV
Solar
Ther
mal
€ / MWh CoE - Low Carbon technologies Europe in 2011-2016 period
Reference case
Source : Alstom analysis 2011. CCS 2015 costs, including on shore T&S and CO2 price (Flue Gas Recirculation case for CCS
Gas CC, average Amine/Oxy for CCS Hardcoal)
CoE for CCS on Coal and Gas fired power competitive
even without including the system costs of intermittent generation
Fossil power with CCS costs no more than renewables
Cost of CCS Gas < Onshore Wind < CCS Coal
CCS < Offshore Wind and Solar
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Funding, financing and/or FITs needed in short/medium term. Including for
current demonstration projects.
Funding: further EU and national support needed
CCS can be
commercially
viable by ~ 2025
Significant
economic gap
exists before then
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Global market for CCS is huge. EU industry will lose out to Asian
competitors if we don‟t deliver CCS fast in Europe.
Selected for funding
12
19
19
2
7
2
3
Asia
China
India
Russia & CIS
Europe
MEA
NAM
LAM
Global Power Market in next 5 years
64 Nr of CCS projectsSource: GCCSI
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Solar
Other renewable
Huge industrial opportunity
CCS MARKET
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Huge industrial opportunity – will we take it?
Global
• IEA Roadmap: 2020: 100 projects. 2050 – 3,400. Approx 110 p.a.
• GCCSI: Govts supporting 25 large scale projects. $11.7 bn allocated
to specific large-scale demos.
UK
• Four „demos‟ by 2020.
• Up to 18 GW investment through 2020s (Source: Poyry)
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Policy Conclusions
• CCS demonstration programmes essential to deliver the necessary learning. Delays directly affect when CCS becomes deployable without subsidy.
• Demonstration projects need further financial support. 50% limit on existing EU funding may cause some projects not to proceed. EU and EIB together should be ready to take on greater share of risk of demo projects.
• In particular, CCS needs ongoing (eg feed-in tariff) support to put it on an equal footing with other low-carbon energy technologies.
• Progressive tightening of EU ETS could well deliver a carbon pricemaking CCS commercially viable sometime in 2020s and certainly by2030, allowing progressive elimination of subsidies.
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© ALSTOM 2011. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.
Key Messages
• CCS essential and affordable on both gas and coal.
• Fossil power with CCS costs no more than renewables.
• Alstom will have a commercial offering by 2015.
• CCS deployment needs further financial support:
– (national) feed-in tariffs; and
– (EU) more funding and financing for demonstration projects
• EU industry has led in this high technology area. But others including China are making faster progress on demonstrations.
• If we do not accelerate, we will lose a huge industrial growth opportunity.
• ……. THE CLOCK IS TICKING
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