where are education systems going ?
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Futures thinking and decision-making at system level Gábor Halász National Institute for Public Education Hungary „ Futures Thinking for Education: Policy, Leadership and the Teaching Profession ” (6 - 8 November 2006 - OECD/Japan Seminar – Hiroshima) . Where are education systems going ?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Futures thinking and decision-making at system level
Gábor HalászNational Institute for Public Education
Hungary
„Futures Thinking for Education: Policy, Leadership and the Teaching Profession” (6 - 8 November 2006 - OECD/Japan Seminar – Hiroshima)
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Where are education systems going ?Schools serve the individual
Education as a closed world
Education as an open world
Schools serve the community
„Conservation scenario”
„Survival scenario”
„„Transformation scenario””
„Market scenario”
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This is what most people in education would hope
Source: J-M. Saussois: Scenarios, international comparisons, and key variables for educational scenario analysis. Think scenarios…, OECD, 2006
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How to renew educational governance in order to realise the transformation scenario?
• The context– Challenges and future trends in governance b
eyond education– Uncertainties, risks and increasing complexit
y in education systems• Facing the new regulation challenge in ed
ucation• Using complexity thinking in renewing ed
ucational governance
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Can futures thinking help the renewal of education governance?
• Leaders and decision makers involved in futures thinking inevitably face complexity
• Those who try to understand and master unpredictable futures may be better equipped to cope with the complexity of the present
• Futures thinking may enhance realism and modesty in leadership (through the continuous confrontation of the desirable with the probable)
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Thank you for your attention!