Futures thinking and decision-making at system level

Gábor HalászNational Institute for Public Education

Hungary

„Futures Thinking for Education: Policy, Leadership and the Teaching Profession” (6 - 8 November 2006 - OECD/Japan Seminar – Hiroshima)

Where are education systems going ?Schools serve the individual

Education as a closed world

Education as an open world

Schools serve the community

„Conservation scenario”

„Survival scenario”

„Transformation scenario”

„Market scenario”

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This is what most people in education would hope

Source: J-M. Saussois: Scenarios, international comparisons, and key variables for educational scenario analysis. Think scenarios…, OECD, 2006

How to renew educational governance in order to realise the transformation scenario?

• The context–Challenges and future trends in governance

beyond education–Uncertainties, risks and increasing

complexity in education systems• Facing the new regulation challenge in

education• Using complexity thinking in renewing

educational governance

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Can futures thinking help the renewal of education governance?

• Leaders and decision makers involved in futures thinking inevitably face complexity

• Those who try to understand and master unpredictable futures may be better equipped to cope with the complexity of the present

• Futures thinking may enhance realism and modesty in leadership (through the continuous confrontation of the desirable with the probable)

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Thank you for your attention!