why nations fail?....and hungary? györgy leitner march 30, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Why nations fail?....and Hungary?
György LeitnerMarch 30, 2015
Content
• 1989 – 2004 – 2014: A revolutionary change for CE Region. Are we happy?
• Four challenges that may undermine longer-term development
• Less opportunities, more challenges?
• Beyond goulash• Hungarian psyche• Why nations fail...and Hungary?• Healthcare or football
Why nations fail....and Hungary? Gyorgy Leitner
The CEE region today: Past opportunities, future challenges
25th anniversary of the fall of Berlin wall
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Closing the development gap
Poland 51 67%
Estonia 58 71%
Latvia 47 64%
Lithuan. 52 72%
Czech R 78 81%
Slovakia 57 76%
Hungary 63 67%
Romania 34 50%
Slovenia 87 84%
Bulgaria 35 47%
Change of per capita GDP of new member countries vs. EU average (100%) , PPP
2004 2012
Source: Eurostat
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
A favourite destination of shared service centres and processing industry
Bulgaria
Romania
Czech R
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Croatia
Greece
Spain
Slovenia
UK
Germany
France
Belgium
Series 1
Source: Eurostat
Monthly minimal wage (Euro)
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
176,5 billion Euro was available for development
Poland
Czech
R
Hungary
Romania
Slova
kia
Lithuan
ia
Bulgaria
Latvi
a
Slove
nia
Estonia
010000200003000040000500006000070000
EU structural funds 2007-2013
M EUROS
70 56 62 52795345 846469 % used
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Poland - the most popular destination for investment
5
4,5
4
3
3,5
2,5
Rapidly changing popularity:Poland – only the 8th in 2007,Slovenia – fell back from No.2,
Hungary from No.5Source: German Chamber of Commerce survey 2013
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Hardly closing the life expectancy gap
Poland 70 73
Estonia 66 71
Latvia 66 69
Lithuan. 66 68
Czech R 72 75
Slovakia 70 72
Hungary 69 71
Romania 68 71
Slovenia 73 77
Bulgaria 69 71
Life expectancy of males at birth in new member countries
2004 2012
Source: Eurostat
EU average 7577
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Has freedom brought hapiness and overall satisfaction?
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Significant part of CEE citizens feel nostalgia for the communist era
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Poland
Czech Rep.
Russia
Slovakia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Hungary
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
35
39
45
48
48
62
62
72
WORSE
ABOUT THE SAME
BETTER
Source: Pew Research Centre: The global attitudes project
Are people worse off than under communism?
BulgariaHungary
GreeceEsthoniaSlovakiaCzech R
RomaniaPortugal
CroatiaItaly
SloveniaPoland
EU averageFrance
GermanyUK
IrelandBelgium
SpainAustria
NetherlandsLuxemburg
SwedenFinnland
Denmark
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Series 1
Factors considered:
Per capita GDPAverage wagesIncome variationsLife expectancyQuality of govermentSchool systemUnemploymentEnvironment issuesSuicide rate
Lagging behind other EU members regarding QoL
Best living conditions in EU
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Resilient economies
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
HungaryPolandCzech RSlovakiaEstoniaLatviaLithuaniaSource: CEB Business Outlook,
2013 October, The Economist
Robust medium-term outlook3.7% annual average growth for CEBPerformance well above western EuropeCurrency weakening will mean tough calls on prices Pol/Cz/HunReceivables remain a headache across the region
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Four key issues that may undermine positive longer-term outlook
1. LOW SPEND ON EDUCATION
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Spend on tertial education far lags behind more developed countries
Source: OECD, 2012
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Four key issues that may undermine positive longer-term outlook
2. LEVEL OF CORRUPTION
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Extremely high level of corruption and State capture
Four key issues that may undermine positive longer-term outlook
3. LOW INNOVATOR
STATUS
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
The region falls into low innovator category with few signs of change
Out of 25 EIT centres only 5 are in the
region
Regional countries’ public R&D spend vs.
GDP less than EU average
Out of 19 Knowledge and Innovation
Communities (KICs) only 1 is in the region
Out of 527 EU Based co.s with significant
R&D spend only 3 are based in the region
Source: The 2013 EU Industrial R&D Investment ScorebordInnovation Union Scoreboard
Four key issues that may undermine positive longer-term outlook
4. LOW SPEND ON HEALTHCARE
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Leading the mortality statistics of Europe
Hungary
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
nia
Finlan
d
Estonia
Czech Rep
ublic
Austria
Portuga
l
United Kingd
omIre
land
Greece
Netherl
ands
Norway
Icelan
d0
10
20
30
40
Mortality of chronic liver diseases and chirrosis(2009)
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep
ublic
Greece
Slove
nia
Finlan
d
Austria
Irelan
d
Portuga
l
Icelan
d
United Kingd
om
Norway
Netherl
ands
0
100
200
300
400
Mortality of cardiovascular system diseases (2009)
Hungary
Slove
nia
Czech Rep
ublic
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Netherl
ands
Estonia
Irelan
d
United Kingd
om
Norway
Icelan
d
Austria
Portuga
l
Greece
Finlan
d0
50
100
150
200
250
Malignant neoplasm mortality (2009)
Source: Eurostat
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
25
Life expectancy
x= vásárlóerő paritásra korrigált nemzeti össztermék (PPP) USD-ban;y=születéskor várható átlagos élettartam
GDP in USD on purchasing power parity
Health conditions of CEE countries are poorer than their economic development would suggest
CEE Countries
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.0
Health spend vs. GDP (%) (2011)
Private spendPublic spend
RomaniaFrance
PolandSlovakia
Germany
Hungary
Denmark Czech
RepublicSloveniaAustri
aEU-27
Bulgaria
Public health expenditure at the lower end in Europe
Source: OECD (2012) – Health at a Glance Europe
Gyorgy Leitner
0
20
40
60
80
100
A telj
es
eg
észség
üg
yi
kia
dás %
-os a
rán
ya
Denmark Czech
RepublicRomania
Austria
France
GermanySlovenia
EU-27Poland
Hungary
SlovakiaBulgaria
Co-payment Private insuarance OtherPublic exp
Why nations fail....and Hungary?
Topics
• Beyond goulash• Hungarian psyche• Why nations fail...and Hungary?• Healthcare or football
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Beyond goulash...
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Beyond gulash...
Beyond gulash...
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Beyond gulash...
Beyond gulash...
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Beyond gulash...
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
The Hungarian psyche
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
What determines the Hungarian psyche?
• Hungary became a small country from a previously mid-sized one
• In the buffer zone between West and East (inferiority and superiority complex)
• Restricted sovereignity since 1526• Feeling alone – surrounded by non-related nations• Being in a sacrificial role
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
We don’t like Pirezians
Massive xenophobia in the region
Lithuania
Bulgaria
East Germany
Slovakia
Czech
Poland
Hungary
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
NeighbursTurksJewsGipsies
Unfavorable view of key minority groups (%)
Low
High
Power Distance
Individualism vs. collectivism
Masculinity vs. femininity
Uncertainity avoidence
Indulgentvs. restrained
Growing intolerance of unorthodox behaviour
and ideas
Young people ready to leave the country
Loose social framework
Personal relationship still drives
Growing centralization of power
Lots of conflictswith the EU
Hungary on Hofstede dimensions
Intolerance towards civil society
TREN
DS Tendency to pessimism
39
Socio-culturallyLiberal
Strong state re-distributution
(Etatist)
Value map of Hungary
Believes in freemarket
(right wing)
Socio-culturallyConservative
40
40%
Socio-culturallyLiberal
Strong state re-distributution
(Etatist)
Political map of Hungary – three main groups
Believes in freemarket
(right wing)
Socio-culturallyConservative
„Open-etatist” doesn’t stick to traditional family roles, moderately
authoritarian,fairly open to gipsies
37%„Closed-paternalist”extremely authoritarian,
wants strong state, believes in capital
punishment,anti-globalist
Strong feelings against gipsies
23%
„Traditionalist – market centered”
Conservative about family roles but more supportive for EU and globalisation
Unfavaroble position in the most recent EU Barometer
• Strong distrust in the media, national legal system and political parties
• 50% of Hungarians regard globalization (DK – only 18% but Czech R. 54!) and liberalization (DK only 27%) as negative
• 42% of Hungarians are against reforms (DK 27%) –this is one of the highest dislikes in EU
• Index of openness to other EU countries – Hungary among the lowest with Italy, Spain, Bulgaria (Lux/DK/NL/S highest)
• Overall satisfaction with how democracy works - 64% of Hungarians dissatisfied (DK is the highest in Europe – Lowest:Greece/Spain/BG/CRO/Portugal/SVK/Italy)
Source: Standard Eurobarometer 82, Autumn 2014
Why nations fail...and Hungary?
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
Opening towards East
Current government risks long-term development
Other
Economic development
Sports
State buerocracy
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Percentage change of main expenditures (2010 vs. 2015)
Percentage
Education
Healthcare
Social Wellfare
Pensions
Interest on debt
- 5,6 billion USD
Football arena or healthcare?
+300 M USD
- 1,5 bill. USD
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
‘No’ to tax on internet
Long way to reach EU 2020 goalsEU 2020
targetHungary in
2012Trend
Favorable/unfavorable
Employment rate – age group 20-64 75% 62%
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D 3% 1.3%
Share of renewable energy in energy consumption
20% 9,6%
Tertiary educational attainment 40% 30%
Decrease poverty :
People living in housholds with very low work intensity
3,2 million
People severely materially deprived 2,6 million
600.000 people
Unusually high proportion of unskilled labor
• Hungary: 36,9%• 25,5 in V4 and 20,7 in EU 12
• Source: Kolosi Tamás/Pósch Krisztián: Osztályok és társadalom kép. Társadalmi Riport 2014.
The high proportion of poor people stands out from Visegrad countries
People severely materially deprived (% of total population)
Source: Eurostat, 2013
26,8
10,2
6,6
11,9
9,6
Hungary Slovakia Czech Rep. Poland EU.28
Easiness of doing business* in Hungary
*World Bank Group
• Continuosly sliding back in rankings
• From overall rank of 47th in 2010 to 54th now• Worst: Protecting investors (128th) and paying
taxes (124th)• Biggest negative change: getting credit (from
30th to 55th)
Hungary chose a doubtful direction
Weakinstitutions
Over-centralization
Myopic elite
State capture by oligarchas
Extractive political and
economic system
Weakining system of checks and balances
Significant gap in remuneration vs OECD average
Spending per capitaDoctors
Nurses
Students
MRIs
ScannersHospital beds
Rem. Nurses
Rem. GPs
Rem. Spec
HC prices
-2
-1
0
1
OECD
Hungary
Cluster of countries*
Prices and physical resources
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
How to turn back the pyramid
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?
• Lack of an overarching, long-term strategy• Over-centralization• Private responsibility is missing, overestimating the role of state• Number of doctors• Gratitude money• Waiting lists
Health spend is still regarded as cost and rather than investment
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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How citizens score their healthcare systems
Ipsos research in 15 countries - 2013 June
Gyorgy LeitnerWhy nations fail....and Hungary?