why now is great time to be media sales (and other media trends)

[email protected] Twitter.com/gregstuart1

MEDIA TRENDS:Why Now is a Great Time to Be in Media

SalesSummit Business Media - Strategic Sales Summit

Las Vegas 2010

com


No question, the media world is

Changing.

Marketers don’t know what they doing.

The world is hungry for Leadership.

3 Items To Cover Today


Wikipedia Says - Salesmen

Primary function of sales is to generate and

close leads, educate prospects, fill needs & satisfy wants of customers appropriately, and therefore turn prospective customers into actual ones.

…by communicating the necessary

information that encourages a

buyer to achieve their goal.

Indi

spen

sibl

eIn

sigh

tful


…is greatly exaggerated (for some media)

slide titleNews of Media’s

Death..


Than others are ever going to be again

slide titleSome Clearly Stronger


Media Trends -> Online Wins BIG

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 $-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

$40.0

$45.0

$50.0

NewspaperMagazineBroadcast TVCable TVRadioYellow PagesOnlineOOH

Greg Stuart Runs the IAB

2009Radio

-17%

Source: eMarketer 2009


slide titleWhat Would Google Say?


75% of U.S. Ad Pros expect to shift more

than a quarter of their ad budgets away

from traditional outlets in the next 5 years.

KPMG January 2009

More Change is Coming


So Says Everyone

59% of U.S. marketers plan to increase budget for

Interactive by pulling funds out of traditional media.Forrester March 2009

70% shifting media funds from traditional

to digital ANA June 2009


Even B2B Marketers % Plan to Increase Spending Digitally in 2010

Online Ads

Email

Search Marketing

Trade Shows

Print Ads

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

44%

32%

30%

17%

17%

Source: Goldstein Group & Hearst Business Media, Oct 2010


slide titleThe Change is Seismic

“The country’s third-largest advertiser, General Motors is getting ready to shift fully half of its

$3 billion budget into digital and one-to-one

marketing within the next 3 years.” Advertising AgeMarch 17, 2008


But That We Knew

The Leading Indicator of those Media Trends are dramatic changes in

Consumer Behavior.


“If you had to live on a deserted island and could only take one of the following with you, which would you take?”

Computer / InternetBooks (lots)TVRadioCell PhoneNewspaper

Source: Yahoo Research 2004


People spend 9 hrs/day w/ media*– TV = 240 minutes– Internet = 93 minutes

–30% media time w/ 2+ media

Funny, Media is More Important Than Ever to Consumers

* Ball State University 2005 Middletown Media report

…by the way, Newspapers =12 minutes


Most is Networked Digital Media


Internet Usage is Staggering191M U.S. people 30 hrs online/wk

Equal to 5.7 Billion Hrs a Year

99% search/mo @ 80 searches each

15 Billion a month

73% stream a video, avg 83 videos per mo

11 Billion streams a month

Year World Pop (M)

2008 6,7072005 6,4542000 6,0701995 5,6741990 5,2631985 4,8311980 4,4351975 4,0681970 3,6921965 3,3351960 2,9821955 2,7561950 2,5191900 1,6501850 1,2621800 9781750 7911000 310

1 200500 BC 100

1000 BC 502000 BC 353000 BC 254000 BC 205000 BC 156000 BC 107000 BC 78000 BC 59000 BC 3

10,000 BC 170,000 BC < 1

2000 360 Million Internet users

2009 1.6 Billion users

U.S. is only 23% of Global users today


And the Adoption is Faster than Ever

Facebook

Ipod

Internet

TV

Radio

0 10 20 30 40

1

3

4

13

38

Source: United Nations Cyber Document, Apple, Facebook

Years to Reach 50 Million Users

60 million new Facebook user inthe last two months of 2009


slide titleAnd TV is Next

Estimated 800,000 U.S. HH’s

Abandoned Their TVs’ for the Web in 2009

Another 17% watched a TV show online

(up from 12%)Convergence Consulting Group April 2010


Media Business is Down

Media Usage is

UpWhat’s Driving the Change?


• 2005 Year of Broadband• 2006 Year of Online Video

• 2007 Year of Social• 2008 Year of Recession Reset

• 2009 Year of Mobile Internet

What Are the Latest Trends?(Per Mary Meeker as Reported at Web 2.0 each year)


SOCIAL AND USER-GENERATED MEDIA


‘New to Net’ User

Commun-ications Services Retail Contributor

Prepared by Greg [email protected] Confidential

Consumers’ Interaction with Internet has Changed – Talking Back!

• First activities• ISP & ease• Info. search• LOTS of time

surfing

• Email• IM • Photo sharing• Early social

networks

• Online banking• Travel - Simple• Auto

• CDs/Books• Complex travel• eBay Motors• Groceries

• Blogs• Comments &

posting• Customer

reviews• Twitter

Source: Nielsen/NetRatings

Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0


• 76% of consumers visit a social network in a month *

• 17% of time is Social Media **

–Social now represents 22% of display impressions *

Explosion of Social* comScore July 2009** Nielsen 2009


slide titleLot of Options


People Want Relationships More than Content

Share of Global Online Time Spent, 6/06 – 6/09

% S

hare

of G

loba

l Min

utes

6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 9/07 12/07 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Yahoo.com Msn.com Google.com YouTube.com Facebook.om

Facebook – Largest Share Gainer of Online Usage Over Past 3 Years

Source: Morgan Stanley

Facebook

YouTube

Yahoo!

MSN


Social Media is Evan Overtaking Email

Number of Global Users (MM)11/06 – 12/09

Global Minutes Spent per Month (B)11/06 – 12/09

Social Networking Email

Social Networking UsageSurpassed Email = 11/07

900

800

700

600

500

400

30011/06 7/07 3/08 11/08 7/09 11/06 7/07 3/08 11/08 7/09

250

200

150

100

50

0

Social Networking UsersSurpassed Email = 7/09



• 55%+/- of companies are “using” social networks for marketing *

• 65%+/- of marketers plan to boost Social spending– (41% ANA 4/09 to 77% AdMedia Partners 1/09)

• But spending is only 5% of total online spending

But Yet Marketers Don’t Know What to do in Social, yet.

* Forrester ‘09 + Equation ‘09


1. Social Networks are not a fad2. Lots of growth left3. What’s better for sales than

Networking (connections, relationships, etc.)

No Question


THE YEAR OF MOBILE

19992000

2001

2002

2003

20042005

2006 2007

2008

2009

2010


slide titleFINALLY!!!

4.6B Mobile Users WW

17% Smartphone's in U.S.

projected @ 46% WW in 2013


Mobile Internet Outpaces Computer InternetiPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch

Quarters Since Launch

Mobile Internet

iPhone + iTouchLaunched 6/07

Desktop Internet

Netscape*Launched 12/94

Mobile Internet

NTT docomo i-modeLaunched 6/99

Desktop Internet

AOL*V2.0 Launched 9/94

60

50

40

30

20

10

Subs

crib

ers

(MM

)

Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19



Global Web Access is Going Mobile

20092013

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

Mobile Web

Total Internet

Mobile WebTotal Internet

Forrester 2009


The Twitter Phenomena

2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Registered Users

‘Mill

ions

• Adding 300,000 registered a day

• 180 million uniques a mo.

• 55 million tweets a day

106 million

Source: Twitter April 2010


Marketers Are About to Ride the Mobile Wave

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $-

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

$320.0 $416.0

$593.0

$830.0

$1,140.0

$1,560.0

Source: eMarketer 9/09


1. Growth is astonishing2. Smart Phones change the Game3. Anytime, anywhere ubiquity

defines a great salesperson

Might Be Mobile’s Time


SO MARKETERS LOVE ALL THE CHANGE, RIGHT?


20061. Newspapers2. Magazines3. Email4. Broadcast TV5. Radio6. CD Player7. Cable TV8. Personal Computer9. Satellite Television10. Internet11. Cellphone12. DVD Players13. Satellite Radio14. MP3 Players15. TivoDVR16. Slingbox17. iPod18. Blogs19. Online Video20. Mobile Internet21. Console Video Games22. PC Video Games23. MMORP Games24. Mobile Games25. Text Messaging26. Mobile Video27. Download Movies28. Podcasts29. Instant Messaging30. Social Networks

2006

More Options Than Ever

19661. Newspapers2. Broadcast TV3. Magazines4. Broadcast Radio5. Eight Track

19961. Newspapers2. Magazines3. Cable TV4. Broadcast TV5. Radio6. Cassette Tapes7. Walkman8. VCR9. Personal Computer10. Console Video Games11. PC Video Games


digital advertising more complex than ever and the options more diverse

IM

Display

Outbound communication iPhone apps

Influentials

Microblogging

Online WOM

Video - YouTube

SEO Widgets

Online advertising

Email marketing

SMS/MMS marketing

Microsite development

Seeding

Blogs

RSSCRM

applicationApp

DevelopmentSearch engine

mktg

Streaming

Podcasting

Website Development

Branded entertainment

Viral INTERACTIVE AD CHANNEL


slide titleEcosystem Looks Like Nothing They’ve Seen


slide titleConfused?

http://images.fanpop.com/images/image_uploads/Web-Trend-Map-2007-V2-0-web-2-0-95889_1600_1024.gif


slide titleThe State of Your Customer?



Primary function of professional sales is to generate and close leads,

educate prospects, fill needs and

satisfy wants of customers appropriately, and therefore turn prospective customers into actual ones.



buyer to achieve their goal

Indi

spen

sibl

eIn

sigh

tful


IT’S TOO BAD ADVERTISERS ARE NOT GOOD AT ADVERTISING.

Excerpted from speech, “Why Advertisers (& their agencies) will Destroy us if We Let Them”


slide title$112 Billion Wasted


$1 Billion Ad Spending Researched

1.1 Million Consumers Surveyed

http://www.ford.com/en/links/General/www_fordvehicles_com/default.htm?referrer=home





















What Did Learn From the Research?

Motivations Messaging

36%

Media


ING’s 4 Year Campaign: Fresh Thinking


Today’s Ads For INGSimplifies A Complicated Financial World



36%

Media

More, What Do We Know?

31%


How Big A Difference Can Creative Make?

BA

Source: IAB Cross Media Study


Purc

hase

Inte

nt

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2%

20%

Creative Makes A BIG Difference


B

A


And Just to See It Again

B

A



Yes, It’s That Bad, and Worse


36%

Media

31% 83%


The Truth Is…Marketing is Hard

Suppose you have 5 options:• 5 Brand Positionings • 5 Customer Segmentations• 5 Ad Creative Approaches• 5 Magazine Schedules/Plans• 5 Online Plans

3,125 Combinations

10 to 10th = 1 billion combinations


What Sticks was Written to Be…

A Clarion Call* to Marketers for Change

Clarion Call * A clarion call is a powerful request for action or an irresistible mandate. Frequently used in a religious context, or in a political context, in that a politician issues a challenge for action from the public.


Donny Deutsch Quote

“We did a wonderful spot…on the Superbowl… for Mitsubishi Gallant...that stops at the end and [says] go to “seewhathappens.com.”

We got about 600,000 clicks.

Was that great or that not great?

We told the client it was great, so it was great.”

[nervous laughter]

− Donny Deutsch speaking to 500 Marketers…Deutsch is the 14 largest agency in the US


slide titleSo What Do We Do?


Focu

sed

on

effec

tiven

ess!

What Did Google Do So Right$20 Billion in Revenue Right!


Google’s Revenue Per Page

$68.00 eCPM$0.54 CPC x 17% click thru x 74% sell thru

What is That Worth to Google?

Source: Jordan Rohan, Analyst at RBC


slide titleHow Can Publishers Drive Effectiveness?


Stop Selling International Impressionsto Domestic Advertisers

International users comprise 15% to 30% of a site’s ad inventory

Removing International increases effectiveness by 18% to 43%

KC ING McDonald's Verisign0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Non-USUS


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Frequency or Budget

Respect Diminishing Returns:It’s a Law of Physics in Media

% o

f Bra

nd Im

pact

Awar

enes

s, Im

age

or

Purc

hase

Inte

nt

Diminishing Returns

1

23

45


Heaviest Online Quintile GarnersHalf the Ad Imps

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al Im

pres

sion

s

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

5% 6%11%

19%

58%

Avg.Freq: 1.0 2.1 3.2 5.5 25.0

LightUsers

All other quintiles

HeavyUsers


Putting in Frequency Caps Greatly Improves PerformanceIncreased

reach by 72%

+50% to 70% in Ad

Effectiveness

Series1-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

10% 12%21%

29% 29%

LightUsers

All other quintiles

HeavyUsers

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al Im

pres

sion

s

Frequency Cap of 3

implemented


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

% A

ided

Aw

aren

ess

Even Bigger Came from Adjusting the Marketing Mix

Introducing New Menu Item: Grilled Chicken Flatbread Sandwich

Ad Frequency (or Budget or Time)

5pt Gain!

TV & Radio

Point of Diminished

Returns

20% ofBroadcast Budget

Reinvested 13.6%

in Online

Cut6.4%

Online + Broadcast


Optimizing Each Campaign Is High Value

Same Media Budget 310% IncreaseSource: Insight Express

Imps (M)Brand

PerformanceContri-bution

Creative 1 10.0 -15.9% (1.59) Creative 2 10.0 13.8% 1.38 Creative 3 10.0 11.3% 1.13

Total 30.0 0.92

Imps (M)Brand

PerformanceContri-bution

Creative 1 -- -- --Creative 2 15.0 13.8% 2.07 Creative 3 15.0 11.3% 1.70

Total 30.0 3.77

http://www.insightexpress.com/


You CAN Improve Ad Effectiveness

Low High1. Cut out International impressions 18% to 43%2. Manage Frequency 50% to 70%3. Capitalize on Time of Day/DoW 10% to 15%4. Ad Size matters 20% to 54%5. Page Placement really matters 6% to 350%6. Creative is “mission critical” 0% to 400%

Total Gain Possible: 0% 2910%

+0% to INFINITY in Ad Effectiveness

+0% to INFINITY in Ad Effectiveness

Insights from the What Sticks Research


“Most Important Car Launch in Ford’s History.” Bill Ford

slide titleFord F-150 Case Study


The F-150 Online Ads


How Big a Difference Can Little Changes Make?

Demo


Online = 10X Value

Interpretation: If it cost Roadblock $1 (indexed at 100) to increase purchase consideration, then it cost $1.35 for Online, $4.56 for magazine and $11.04 to TV to achieve the same increase.

Brand Metric: Purchase

Consideration (top 2 box)

Relative Cost Index Relative Cost

TV 1104 $11.04Magazine 456 $4.56Roadblock 100 $1.00Online 135 $1.35


But Does It Impact Sales?

Cost of Portal Home Page Take-Over ad in study: $500,000

Cost of Portal Home Page Take-Over ad today: $2,500,000

Priceless!

Ford Media Mix *

* Approx. $200 Million Budget

Base Plan

2.5% Onlin

e

6% Onlin

e0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Equal to +$1,350,000,000 in U.S. Truck sales $$$

Equal to $750,000,000 in

U.S. Truck sales

$Tr

aditi

onal

Med

ia(T

V, M

agaz

ines

)


SO YOU WANT TO BE IN MEDIA SALES


1. Change is happening (& needed)2. Opportunity to be Insightful and

Indispensible is greater than ever3. You’re most incentivized to help

Why a Great Time to be Media Sales?

Leadership is Leading Change


Will You Lead Change?

I cannot say whether things will get better if we change; what I can say is they must change if they are to get better.

− Georg Christoph Lichtenberg18th-century German scientist,

satirist and Anglophile



Primary function of professional sales is to generate and close leads,

educate prospects, fill needs and

satisfy wants of customers appropriately, and therefore turn prospective customers into actual ones.



buyer to achieve their goal

Indi

spen

sibl

eIn

sigh

tful


1. Stay up with the Trends2. Learn what works - be better3. Share that insight with your

customers

If You Have the Insight, You are Indispensible

Leadership comes from Insight


Or Stephen Colbert Said

Today is the first day of the rest of your life and it's already 10:15 am.

What a waste.

Stephen Colbert


[email protected]+1 631 702 0682

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www.facebook.com/stuartnyc

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www.linkedin.com/in/gregstuart

www.gregstuart.com

www.gregstuartspeaker.comMansavesdog.wordpress.comwww.slideshare.net/gregstuart


[email protected]+1 631 702 0682

thank you!

com

www.twitter.com/gregstuart

www.facebook.com/stuartnyc

www.veoh.com/users/gregstuart

www.linkedin.com/in/gregstuart

www.gregstuart.com

www.gregstuartspeaker.comMansavesdog.wordpress.com


greg stuart bio

• Greg Stuart is a recognized leader in digital media & advertising and was selected by Ad Age as one of “10 Who Made Their Mark” in 2006.

• He is the former CEO of the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), the trade group for the interactive advertising & marketing industry. He grew the IAB’s revenues with a CAGR of 37% (overall +500%) while leading the industry from $6 billion to $17 billion in ad spending. The IAB customers included AOL, CNET, Google, Disney, NBD, Yahoo! & 400 others.

• Greg has more than two decades of hands-on operating experience as a proven business builder in the Digital Media and Technology arenas since 1993. He has extensive experience as CEO/Director/senior executive roles with Y&R, Sony Online Ventures, Cars.com, Flycast Ad Network and venture-backed DeltaClick.

• In the last two years he has served as Advisor, Director and angel investor to venture-backed companies with a resulting $750 million in exits, each at least at a 10x multiple. He’s also worked with AT&T, Alcatel Lucent & Meredith in redefining their digital media opportunities for the future.

• Ad Age identified his book, “What Sticks: Why Most Advertising Fails and How to Guarantee Yours Succeeds,” as the “Number one of 10 books you should have read”.

• Aside from his industry leading status in advertising and digital media, his operating expertise is in leading cross-functional teams in product development, go-to-market strategy, company positioning, business development/deal making, marketing, and scalable revenue generation with a record of success in both rapid growth businesses and turnarounds.

• He currently serves on the Board of Zimbio, a next generation webzine with nearly 20 million uniques and backed by Menlo Ventures and August Capital. He had served on the Board of Rapt (Accel backed), Inc. in SF, sold to Microsoft; and Board of Allyes (Oak backed) in China, sold to Focus Media. Greg has also served on the Advisory Boards of a dozen venture-backed companies in Search, Mobile, Video, Research, & Social Media backed by Intel, Greylock, Sierra, Conway, TimeWarner, USVP, Union Square, Oak VC, DFJ, Canaan, Spark, Intel, First Round Capital and others.

• He is a member of the National Speakers Association and speaks around the world on the failings, and thus opportunities, of advertising - Istanbul, Israel, Germany, Mexico City, Jakarta, Sao Paulo, Switzerland, Zurich, Shanghai, Sydney, Barcelona, Monaco, Tokyo and others.

• Greg has a BA in Economics from the University of Washington and completed Wharton’s intensive Advanced Management Program in 2008. He lives happily outside of New York City in Bridgehampton, NY with his wife Pamela, twin daughters and son.

• http://www.linkedin.com/in/gregstuart