why ttip: growth, jobs and leadership presentation at cepi paper week conference, november, 2013...

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Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013 Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) www.ecipe.org Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. [email protected], www.ecipe.org

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Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Economics case: size matters!

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Page 1: Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013 Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International

Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership

Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013

Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)

www.ecipe.org

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. [email protected], www.ecipe.org

Page 2: Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013 Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. [email protected], www.ecipe.org

TTIP - background

• Transatlantic free trade: the ”olive branch” of transatlanticism

• Transatlantic Economic Council in 2007: not an inspirational example

• The failure of the Doha Round• The TTIP ”Promise”: tall ambitions,

short time

Page 3: Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013 Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. [email protected], www.ecipe.org

Economics case: size matters!

Page 4: Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013 Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. [email protected], www.ecipe.org

Effects on trade and GDP

Page 5: Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013 Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. [email protected], www.ecipe.org

The ”leadership” agenda

• TTIP not a defensive strategy to fend off emerging market competition– EU trade agenda

• Pro-active global strategy– Addressing the structural problems of

multilateralism: ”Large emerging markets consequential for global trade but behave as poor developing countries”

Page 6: Why TTIP: Growth, Jobs and Leadership Presentation at CEPI Paper Week Conference, November, 2013 Fredrik Erixon, Director, European Centre for International

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. [email protected], www.ecipe.org

Can TTIP deliver on its promise?

• Potential deal breakers:– Data protection– Precautionary principle– Agriculture

• Technical and political challenges in regulatory convergence

• ”21st Century issues”