why us real estate presentation companion
TRANSCRIPT
Why US Real Estate?
• Unlike the EU, real estate has fallen in most of the US by an average of 35% from peak values, allowing 88% of the average family of four with two wage earners to be able to afford a home. In 2006 at the peak of the market only 17% of families using this same criteria were able to afford a home. The United States now has one of the most affordable home values vs. incomes in the developed world.
• The US has seen the number of homes for sale drop by over 2/3 in many gateway cities, with the level of sales exceeding foreclosures, short sales and shadow inventories by a factor of 2.
• The US currently is having a baby boom with the largest number of new births since post World War II. This is partially due to a significant number of adults in the 23‐28 year age range undertaking family formation exceeding any period since the 1970’s.
• US home foreclosures are forecast to taper off strongly by the 2nd Qtr of 2011. • Washington‐based Mortgage Insurance Companies of America recently said borrowers who
caught up on their overdue mortgages outnumbered people who became newly delinquent on insured home loans for the first time in almost four years.
• In some areas house prices have already shown price increases, such as San Diego (Orange County) and San Francisco, rising 14% from their low values of 12 months ago. http://www.housingwire.com/2009/11/16/san‐diego‐house‐prices‐rise‐14‐since‐march‐local‐survey/)
• Housing shortages are now predicted in many gateway cities which is always the required condition before house values begin to rise.(http://www.housingwire.com/2009/12/22/nar‐puts‐housing‐inventory‐at‐44‐month‐low/
• New housing programs have been recently offered by both local and federal programs which support a continuation of governmental incentives to bring markets to stability
• The US has a method for dealing with its failed banks that has seen USD 14 billion of legacy asset sales in 2009 and they have projected USD 100 billion of structured asset sales for 2010. The EU currently has no similar program making access for investors of distressed real estate and loans very difficult.
• The US has had a historical pattern of moving toxic assets away from the failed banks into the private investors hands since the 1990’s RTC programs and has made it a strong point in the current objectives of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve to remove the USD 1.4 trillion of assets currently on the FDIC books as a priority in the next 18 months, making the FEIC asset sale “the only game in town”.
• The value of real estate was significantly impacted by the liquidity crisis, this is now beginning to adjust and real estate in the US will once again be able to use leverage albeit on more conservative loan to value ratios.
The California Distressed Land Assets Fund Ltd
• US physical real estate has been risk‐adjusted by roughly 35% reductions allowing investors to have a very low entry point. Unlike the transferable securities based on real estate that have seen increases on average of 120%+ in the last 12 months investors can commit capital in 2010 via the fund, prior to any major price adjustments, and potentially have the same or greater returns rather than risking investment today in more conventional securities.
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