will 3 g networks cope 2010

U Unwired insighti

Will 3G Networks Cope?

Dr Mark HeathDr Alastair Brydon

Unwired insightUi www.unwiredinsight.com

The big questions addressed

? ? ?By how muchwill mobiletraffic increase?

What’s the realcapacity of3G networks?

Will 3G networkscope, and whatcan be done?


Traffic increasing but future unclear

Large traffic increases reported• AT&T: 5000% data traffic

increase in 3 years• O2: 20× increase in data in

12 months

Unclear future demand & implications• Carphone Warehouse: mobile

broadband has peaked• Cisco: 3.6 billion GBs per month by

2014• Rysavy: demand will outstrip

supply by 2014• Vodafone: no problem to handle

the trafficShort-term symptoms• AT&T: capacity issues in

USA• O2: capacity problems

in LondonCritical to understand:• 3G traffic• 3G capacity• Industry implications


This is just the beginning!

Increasing usage of 3G devices indoors

Drivers to 3G traffic volumes

Penetration of USB modems/data cards

Penetration of smartphones

Flat-rate bundles, with large usage allowances

Changing service mix, towards traffic-intensive

services

Increasing availabilityof smartphone

applications

3G enhancements

Increasing 3G penetration


Increasing traffic intensity of services


3G traffic will increase by a factor of 20


Real performance of new technology


Capacity per user will decline as 3G penetration increases


Some operators will suffer capacity bottlenecks in 2010


Complementary distribution methods will be essential

Voice and data services

and content

3G macrocellbase stations

Mobile broadcasting

solutions

Indoor systemsSideloading

3G devices

WLAN Femtocells


More information at www.unwiredinsight.com

• Download our free whitepaper www.unwiredinsight.com/whitepaper.pdf

• The report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ is available from our website.


Implications for the wireless industry

• Enormous challenges to provide the capacity, coverage and cost base needed - CAPEX per network will increase

• Different network operators in different markets face very different challenges

• Widespread need for spectrum, base stations, LTE, GSM close-down, femtocells, WiFi offloading and sideloading

• Network sharing or consolidation may be the only profitable solution for many

• Massive networks provide opportunity for equipment vendors, but consolidation will require them to pick the winning operators

• Femtocells/WiFi offload open the door to new competitors for equipment vendors


More information on www.unwiredinsight.com

• Download our free whitepaper www.unwiredinsight.com/whitepaper.pdf

• The report ‘Will 3G Networks Cope?’ is available from our website.

will 3 g networks cope 2010

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