willem ligtvoet, january 12 1 climate change and water management policy options for the future
TRANSCRIPT
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12
1
Climate change and Water Management
Policy options for the future
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12Climate Change and Water Management
2
Climate change – dealing with uncertainties
Temperature rise
Sea level rise
Precipitation patterns
River discharges – averages and peak discharges
Storm surges and hurricanes
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12Climate Change and Water Management
3
Risks with respect to water management
Changes in flood risks: coastal and river areas
Changes in water availability and drought risks
Salinization of deltas
Increased risks of urban flooding
According to IPCC effects of climate change may be prominent in second half of 2100 (IPCC, 2008)
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12Climate Change and Water Management
4
Trend in weather-related disasters 1980-2009
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
Loss
es (
billi
on U
SD
201
0)
Hurricane Katrina
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
0
20
40
60
80
Num
ber
of d
isas
ters
Coastal and fluvial floods, flash floods Droughts and temperature extremes Tropical and extratropical cyclones, local storms
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
0
100
200
300
400
500
Num
ber
of v
ictim
s (m
illio
ns)
drought India
flood China
drought India,
flood China
- Data do not allow conclusions about relationship climate change and disasters
- Corrected for population growth andeconomic growth there is a stabilization
Source: Visser et al., in prep
2010-2050-Population growth by 1/3 up to 9 billion-Further economic growth
Vulnerability increases Water demand increases
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12Climate Change and Water Management
5
World water resources
Salt water 1,05 billion km3 97,5%
Freshwater 35 million km3 2,5%
Available for use <1 %
Source: UNEP; WWAP
Uncertainties availability demand: tipping points
Resource variability
time
water demand
20302050
Options:-Increase resource *water harvesting *de-salinization
- Increase resource efficiency *households *industries *agriculture
Result:- Reduced vulnerability- Buying time
water quantity
Freshwater use world wide
Households 8%
Industry 22%
Agriculture 70%
20% of agricultural area=> 40% of food production
80% agricultural area rainfed
Source: UNEP; WWAP
Irrigation increases crop production factor 2-5
Relevant drivers increasing pressure on water Population growth up to 9 billion people with 70% in cities
Economic growth and increasing wealth
Growth of food production (irrigation, nutrients, pesticides)
Changes in diet: more meat increases water demands
Globalisation and liberalisation => shift of food productionfrom dry areas to wet areas
Biomass production: water demand >> rice and wheat
Climate change
Water demand 2000-2050 increases Water Demand
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
World2000
2050-BL OECD2000
2050-BL BRIICS2000
2050-BL RoW2000
2050-BL
km3
irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricity
Source: PBL in OECD
Population lacking access to improved watersupply
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050
urban rural
in m
illio
n pe
rson
s
ROW
BRIICS
OECD
Urban Rural
Source: PBL in OECD
Population lacking access to improved sanitation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050
urban rural
in m
illio
n pe
rson
s
ROW
BRIICS
OECD
Urban Rural
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990 2010 2030 2050 1990 2010 2030 2050
urban rural
in m
illio
n pe
rson
s
ROW
BRIICS
OECD
Source: PBL in OECD
Urban Rural
Diet change increases water demand
water use/kg
Cattle 15 m3
Sheeps/goats 10 m3
Poultry 6 m3
Rice 3 m3
Wheat 1,5 m3
Citrus 1 m3Source: FAO
Shift of food production increases water stress
Source: PBL in OECD; WUR
Saoudi Arabia -> Ethiopiafood Soedan
China, Korea, Japan -> Africafood, biomass
Brasil -> Mozambiquebiomass sugercane
Europefood/biomass
Water embedded in complex interactions
Urban developments
Rural &Nature
developments
Capital drivenagriculture
waterland conversionlabouremissions
foodmigrationcapitalland conversion
capitalfood
….
Export- food- biomass
international networks
Food import
national &foreigninvestors
Water and food-security not only a matter of water
Role of water management Main drivers out of reach
Water needs to be integrated in economic analyses- optimizing crop per drop (production/m3 , $$ /m3)- $$/m3 agriculture $$/m3 competing activities- $$ ecosystemservices- …
Contribution to fair sharing: between nations, between people, between sectors (nature, ecosystems)
Basis: analysis on scale of river basins!
Integrated water basin management
Interactions upstream/downstream
+ complex thematic interactions
Land use Water use
Wide variety of policy instruments- Information – behavioural changes- Standards waterquality * nutrients * other emissions - Water permits, water rights- Land use planning- Technology * improving resource eff. * de-salinisation- Cutting perverse subsidies- Introduce positive subsidies-…..
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12Climate Change and Water Management
20
Future challengesStrategic- Integration of water and climate in economical and political
strategies- Powerfull economical analyses on river basin scale for informed
decisions on water allocation and use (River Basin Committees National governments)
- Water is cross-cutting issue: supra-sectoral approach required withincontext of water basins
- Guiding principles: sustainable use and fair sharingTechnology- Sharp improvement of resource efficiency especially in agriculture- De-salinization based on renewable and cheap energy- Water-harvesting techniques - …………
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12Climate Change and Water Management
21
Enormous geographical differences
No silver bullets – area-specific analyses and approaches needed
Physical system Economic systemPolitical/societal system
What? How?
Willem Ligtvoet, January 12Climate Change and Water Management
22