wim/ama/iom3 copper bulls vs bears debate may 1st 2014

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Drivers of Copper Use Change Illustrative Slides AMA Meeting Date: May 1 st 2014

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WIM/AMA/IOM3 Copper Bulls vs Bears Debate May 1st 2014

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Page 1: WIM/AMA/IOM3 Copper Bulls vs Bears Debate May 1st 2014

Drivers of Copper Use Change

Illustrative SlidesAMA Meeting

Date: May 1st 2014

Page 2: WIM/AMA/IOM3 Copper Bulls vs Bears Debate May 1st 2014

Drivers of Copper Use Change 2005-2018

Industrial Production and Other Drivers of Copper Use Change

Figures relate to total copper use, including direct melt scrap. IP change converted to a tonnage number.

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000 Total Market Growthkt Cu

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Change excl. Subs. & Min.

Substitution & Miniaturisation Loss

IP Gain

kt Cu

Page 3: WIM/AMA/IOM3 Copper Bulls vs Bears Debate May 1st 2014

The Drivers, Excluding IP Change

Effect of Substitution & Miniaturisation vs Structural Market Growth

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000 Change Excl. Subs. & Min.

Miniaturisation

Materials Substitution

kt Cu

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000 Net Effectkt Cu

Page 4: WIM/AMA/IOM3 Copper Bulls vs Bears Debate May 1st 2014

Drivers of Copper Use Change 2005-2018

Impact on Refined Copper – Bringing in the Direct Melt Scrap Dimension

Impact of substitution, miniaturisation and structural change adjusted to take account of scrap share.

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000 Net Effectkt Cu

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000 Scrap Share EffectChange Excl. Subs. & Min.MiniaturisationMaterials Substitution

kt Cu