WITC Inservice

Shell Lake, WI02-27-13

Real GDP Growth

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Pct

Cha

nge

At A

nnua

l Rat

es

Gross Domestic Product

Source: Actual--Bureau of Economic Analysis . Shaded area indicates period of recession

Actual

4Q 2012 fell by 0.1%, first estimate, early impacts of sequestration – fed spending decreased 15%, defense down 22.2%. Exports fall 5.7%, Sandy possibly.

3% would be “ok”, 5% would be “good” growth. So really not too bad, all things considered.

Source: The Conference Board

LEI up 0.2% in January – slow

but solid. Best news:

HousingBiggest Risk: Sequestration

•Consumer Sentiment (UMich) up 1.2 pts in Jan, almost all gain due to households over $75k. Consumer Confidence (The Conference Board) up 11.2 pts in Feb, as shock from payroll tax abates.

•Consumers concerned about financial situation (payroll tax increase especially hits those making <$75k), and more pessimistic about labor market.

Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve

Some state and local indicators

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011 2012

Unemployment rate

2011-2012 Unemployment Rates, Wisconsin

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Rate: 6.5%

Rates below year-ago levels (not seasonally

adjusted) Employment up, labor force up slightly.. No

significant change from 2011

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

2011-2012 Unemployment Rates, WITC Area, Wisconsin

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Rate: 7.2%

Over-the-year: Employed up 1,362, unemployed up 82 = labor force up 1,444

(0.9%)

LF only fell in Rusk and Polk

2,550,000

2,600,000

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

Total Nonfarm Jobs

2011-2012 Wisconsin Nonfarm Jobs

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Up over the year, second month this year. Mfg up 8,500, retail trade down

5,600 (was up y to y last month).

2011-2012 Superior-Duluth MN-WI MSA Nonfarm Jobs

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

118.0

120.0

122.0

124.0

126.0

128.0

130.0

132.0

134.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011

2012

The Aging Workforce

U.S. Unemployment by Age Group

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

All ages 16 to 19 years of age 20 to 24 years of age 25 years and older

Source: BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Wisconsin’s Manufacturing Workers by Age Cohort

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

201014-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55+

Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators via Cornell University Virtual Regional Data Center, and calculations by WI DWD OEA

Wisconsin’s Manufacturing Employment by Age Cohort:

1990

14-3444%

35-5445%

55-and-over11%

Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators via Cornell University Virtual Regional Data Center, and calculations by WI DWD OEA

2010

14-3426%

35-5454%

55-and-over20%

1990

14-3444%

35-5445%

55-and-over11%

2010

14-3426%

35-5454%

55-and-over20%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

High school or equivalent Some college or associate degree Bachelor degree or above

Up-Skilling: Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment by Educational Attainment

Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators via Cornell University Virtual Regional Data Center, and calculations by WI DWD OEA

Wisconsin Manufacturing Average Monthly Earnings by Educational Attainment

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Less than high school High school or equivalent Some college or associate degree Bachelor degree or above

Sources: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators via Cornell University Virtual Regional Data Center, and calculations by WI DWD OEA

Total Projected Job Openings 2010-2020in Occupations with Manufacturing-Related

Apprenticeships6,980

4,730

3,910

3,440

2,330

1,680

1,400

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Maintenance & repair workers,general

Machinists

Plumbers, pipefitters &steamfitters

Assemblers and fabricators, allother

Computer-controlled machine tooloperators, metal & plastic

Molding, coremaking & castingmachine setters, operators &

tenders, metal and plastic

Multiple machine tool setters,operators & tenders, metal &

plastic

Growth openings

Replacements

Total Openings

Source: WI DWD OEA Projections, BLS Projections

Projected Job Openings 2010-2020by Job Training Required

106,440

149,630

63,730

171,010

325,170

35,270

117,210

277,450

474,800

180,940

21,210

52,290

23,660

16,540

35,430

None

Short-term on-the-job training

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Long-term on-the-job training

Apprenticeship

Internship/residency

Master's degree

Doctoral or professional degree

Growth Openings

Replacement Openings

Total Openings

Source: WI DWD OEA Projections, BLS Projections

133,470

128,310

112,170

78,880

76,830

64,720

52,220

50,260

48,470

42,030

40,710

35,660

32,290

31,860

25,250

20,180

19,690

14,310

12,060

9,280

4,080

1,350

Office & admin. support

Food prep. & serving related

Sales and related

Production

Transport. & material moving

Healthcare practitioners & tech.

Education, training & library

Business & financial operations

Personal care & service

Construction & extraction

Management

Installation, maintenance & repair

Healthcare support

Bldg & grounds cleaning & maint.

Computer and mathematical

Protective service

Arts, design, ent., sports & media

Architecture & engineering

Community & social services

Life, physical & social science

Legal

Farming, fishing & forestry

Growth Openings Replacement Openings Total Openings

Growth Openings & Replacement Openings by Occupation Group

Skill Grou

p

Occupation Title

Baseemployme

nt

Projection employme

nt

Numeric

change

Percent

change

Growth opening

s

Replacement openings

Total opening

s

Typical education

required to enter occ.

Workexperien

ce

25th percentile

wage & 75th percentile

wage

Typical training needed for

competency

5Registered nurses

57,760 71,540 13,780 23.9 13,780 10,450 24,230 Bachelor’s or Associate’s

None$25.92 - $35.21

None

4Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer

45,460 54,950 9,490 20.9 9,490 9,040 18,530 H.S. diploma

or equiv.1 to 5 years

$15.18 - $23.29

Short-term on-the-job training

3 Carpenters 23,530 26,450 2,920 12.4 2,920 4,990 7,910 H.S. diploma

or equiv.None

$16.19 - $27.19

Apprenticeship

12Accountants and auditors

19,430 22,250 2,820 14.5 2,820 4,170 6,990Bachelor’s

degreeNone

$23.02 - $35.21

None

2Sales reps, services, all other

12,640 14,820 2,180 17.2 2,180 3,710 5,890 H.S. diploma

or equiv.None

$15.91 - $33.63

Short-term on-the-job training

14Computer supportspecialists

13,300 15,490 2,190 16.5 2,190 3,490 5,680 Some college,

no degreeNone

$18.15 - $28.11

Moderate-term on-the-job training

1

Welders, cutters,solderers, and brazers

11,280 13,120 1,840 16.3 1,840 3,010 4,850 H.S. diploma

or equiv.Less than

1 year$15.65 - $21.30

Moderate-term on-the-job training

9 Electricians 10,060 12,110 2,050 20.4 2,050 2,710 4,760 H.S. diploma

or equiv.None

$20.64 - $30.46

Apprenticeship

9 Machinists 15,030 17,000 1,970 13.1 1,970 2,760 4,730 H.S. diploma

or equiv.None

$15.21 - $22.85

Long-term on-the-job training

12Computer systemsanalysts

10,850 13,460 2,610 24.1 2,610 2,030 4,640 Bachelor’s

degreeNone

$28.14 - $41.86

None

Source: Wisconsin Occupational Projections 2010-2020, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development Office of Economic Advisors

Highlighted occupations met three criteria:

1. Each occupation’s projected growth rate exceeds the all-occupations growth rate of 11.9. percent.

2. Each occupation’s median wage exceeds the all-occupations median wage of $16.04.

3. Each occupation is projected to generate over 4,500 openings between 2010 and 2020.

Highlighted Occupations

Other Trends

• Sequestration • The Euro zone• China’s economy

For copies of this PowerPoint or if you have other questions please contact:

Scott HodekRegional Economist – Serving West Central WisconsinOffice of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development715.836.2997scott.hodek@dwd.wisconsin.gov

Website: dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea