W I T H O U T

S PA C E In a world without space, what will happen?

Acknowledgements The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Summer Space Program (SHSSP) was convened at the Mawson Lakes Campus of the University of South Australia (UniSA), Adelaide, Australia by the International Space Uni-versity (ISU) and UniSA. This intense course takes participants through a multidisciplinary lecture and workshop series conducted over three weeks, followed by a two week section dedicated to the production of

this report.

While all care has been taken in its preparation, this report should not be relied on. ISU and UniSA do not take any responsibility for the accu

racy of its content.

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Mawson Lakes South Australia 5059 www.unisa.edu.au

The Executive Summary and the White Paper can be found on the ISU website www.isunet.edu. Hard copies of the White Paper can also be

requested, while supplies last, from:

International Space University Strasbourg Central Campus

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All Rights Reserved (2019)

Permission is granted to quote excerpts from this report provided

appropriate acknowledgement is given.

Mr. Goktug Karacalioglu Ms. Amanda Johnston Dr. Ady James Mrs. Philomena Bonis Dr. Jacques Arnould Mr. Christopher Johnson Mr. Paolo Nespoli Ms. Ruth McAvinia Mr. John Connolly Dr. Michael Simpson Dr. Omar Hatamleh Mr. Joel Herrmann Prof. Walter Peeters Mr. Juan de Dalmau Mr. Eric Dahlstrom Ms. Joanna Ruiter Mr. Alan Hale Ms. Alexandra Ryan Mrs. Flavia Tata-Nardini Mr. Michael Davis Mr. Brett Gooden Dr Kimberley Norris Mr Joseph O'Leary Prof. David Bruce Dr. Patrick Neumann Mr Michael Kenneally Prof William (Bill) Cowley Assoc Prof Gottfried Lechner Prof. Steven Freeland Mr. George Dyke Dr. Alice Gorman Prof. Graziella Caprarelli Dr. Laura Rollison Mr. David Neudegg Mr. Charley Lineweaver Ms. Kerrie Dougherty Mr. Terry Plane Ms Stacey Lee Dr Gordon Cable Mr. Keith Wright Dr. Stephen Hicks Ms. Kavindi De Silva Mrs. Eriita Jones Mr. Noel Siemon Mr Mark Jessop Prof. Iver Cairns Prof. Pete Worden Dr. Masahiko Yamazaki Mr. Taiga Zengo Mr. Thomas Mueller Mr. David Cowdrey Mr. Marco Truong Ms. Hannah Webber Dr. Sarah Jane Pell Mr Ryo Futamata Dr. William Crowe Dr. Eduardo Rodriguez Mr. Scott Pollock Mr. Paul Curnow

ISU - International Space University University of South Australia (UniSA) University of South Australia (UniSA) Queensmount Senior Public School CNES - Headquarters Secure World Foundation NASA Johnson Space Center ATG Europe NASA Johnson Space Center Secure World Foundation NASA Headquarters ISU - International Space University ISU - International Space University ISU - International Space University International Space Consultants Science&Technology Earthrise Institute Swinburne University of Technology Fleet Space Space Industry Association of Australia University of South Australia (UniSA) University of Tasmania University of South Australia (UniSA) University of South Australia (UniSA) Neumann Space SpeedCast ITR - Institute for Telecommunications Research University of South Australia (UniSA) University of Western Sydney Symbios Communications Flinders University University of South Australia (UniSA) University of South Australia (UniSA) University of Adelaide Australian National University Endeavour Consulting Terry Plane Media and Communications Sky News Human Aerospace ISU - International Space University ISU - International Space University ISU - International Space University University of South Australia (UniSA) Independent Consultant Amateur Radio Telemetry Group University of Sydney Breakthrough Foundation Nihon University Nihon University Dementia Research Centre - Macquarie University University of South Australia (UniSA) University of South Australia (UniSA) University of South Australia (UniSA) Aquabatics Research Team Nihon University High Earth Robotics NASA Ames Research Centre Southern Cross Pyrotechnics University of South Australia (UniSA)

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Mission Statement

Introduction In the modern world it is easy to forget how humans rely on having unrestricted access to space. Since the iconic ‘beep... beep… beep’ began cascading down to Earth from Sputnik 1, space has been both a play-ground and a tool for the citizens of Planet Earth. So, what would happen if everything in space—suddenly, and without warning—disappeared? This report envisions a time without space capabilities; an exploration of possible commercial, economic, ethical, legal, political, societal, and technological consequences of an outage of satellites and other space assets. The information provided in this report will demonstrate our global reliance on space assets and their importance to everyday life, framed to be easily understood by a reader without space expertise. The case studies are presented with purposeful ambiguity to the cause of the outages, encouraging con-sideration of the theorized effects.

To assess the commercial, economic, ethical, legal, political and technical impacts on a world without space assets, considering two case studies over

time.

References

Leiserowitz, A. A., 2004. Day After Tomorrow: Study of Climate Change Risk Perception. [pdf] Available at: <http://environment.yale.edu/leiserowitz/climatechange/TDAT_assets/LeiserowitzTDAT2.pdf> [Accessed 12 February 2019]. Rowe, A., 2016. How 'The Martian' impacted NASA's real-life mission to Mars. [online] IDG Connect. Available at: <https://www.idgconnect.com/idgconnect/opinion/1022450/martian-impacted-nasas-real-life-mission-mars> [Accessed 11 February 2019].

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Exploratory Sciences

Space assets focused on looking out, away from Earth. Human spaceflight to orbit, landers and rovers on celestial bodies, and scientific study.

Commercial—What will New Space companies do to pivot business?

Economic— What is the financial loss of losing spinoff technologies from space companies?

Ethical—Are our astronauts alive and can we save them?

Legal—Who is accountable for the loss of space research?

Political—Will it strengthen international collabo-ration?

Societal—What will replace space exploration as the new Cultural Monument?

Technological—Where do the technological ad-vancements come from if not space?

Remote Sensing

Observing the Earth’s surface using satellites and data to inform decision making.

Commercial—Can the agricultural industry as effi-ciently without satellite monitoring?

Economic—What is the economic loss of not be-ing able to predict the weather?

Ethical—Will terrestrial alternatives operate un-der the principles of shared access?

Legal—Does COPUOS’s Principles of Remote Sens-ing become redundant?

Political—Will the loss of intelligence gathering lead to an international power shift?

Societal—What is the human cost of not knowing if cyclones or typhoons are coming?

Technological—If we can’t track climate change, will green tech development cease?

What are the concerns for a world Without Space?

Position, Navigation, & Timing

Systems that provide tracking, guidance, and chrono-logical information. GPS and GLONASS using Medium Earth Orbit.

Commercial—How would we operate without marine navigation?

Economic—How much will delays cost the global economy?

Ethical—Should nations share their terrestrial sys-tems?

Legal—Would the US continue to pursue a policy leadership ambition?

Political—Will it strengthen international collabora-tion?

Societal—What level of worry would an outage of these systems create?

Technological—How can a replacement system be created?

Telecommunication

Network of terrestrial and satellite assets connecting people and things.

Commercial—Will the entertainment industry survive without satellite TV?

Economic—How reliant is the US economy on satellite communications?

Ethical—How will we communicate during disasters?

Legal—Who is legally allowed to redistribute the re-duced amount of bandwidth?

Political—Will governments restrict Internet access for their own use?

Societal—How far does society regress if unable to watch sports live by satellite?

Technological—Can our power networks function without satellite communications?

What are the concerns for a world Without Space?

Conclusion We have conducted an assessment of a world ‘without space’, investigating the impact within four are-as of space technology: space exploration capabilities; position, navigation, and timing; remote sensing; and telecommunication. In each area, we examined the effect on the commercial, economic, ethical, legal, political, societal, and technological sectors globally. To understand the impact over time in these areas and sectors, we examined China and the USA in two case studies. Our analysis mapped the potential effects on our world without space based on specula-tive considerations. Key impact factors were discovered within each space asset group and some are summarized below:

All communication with ISS would be terminated requiring an emergency return of astronauts to Earth;

No satellite-based weather observations and forecasting, resulting in limited disaster manage ment of forest fires, flooding, etc;

Potentially restricted access to the Internet, including limited access (if any) to social media such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc;

Loss of communication potentially results in cancellation of flights, ships, and trains globally;

No space-based remote sensing of agriculture, potentially impacting world food chains.

In our study, we found that literature on this topic was sparse or non-existing. As such, we strongly recommend that more detailed studies are carried out in these areas of interest in the near future. To understand a society without access to space on a global scale however, fur-ther studies considering the combined impact on these technology areas are recommended. We recommend that the scenario depicting a world without space is discussed on a global scale (United Nations or other forums) as well as at a national level. This should include a deeper analysis of the impact on the commercial, eco-nomic, ethical, legal, political, societal, and tech-nological sectors.

Finally, the film industry should be used to com-municate the effects of a world without space. Film is a powerful medium for science communi-cation; a study into the impact of The Day After Tomorrow on society’s understanding of global warming showed that viewers tended to have a higher perception of global warming risks than non-watchers (Leiserowitz, 2004). Given the re-cent surge in space-related movies (Interstellar, Arrival, The Martian, Gravity, First Man, Hidden Figures, and more), the film industry is in a prime position to create awareness of what a world without space could look like.

Future Work

“As we move forward, I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t adopt things in their movie for our real habitats that end up on Mars. Helping with the movie may have us rethinking our own designs.”

– James Green, NASA Director of Planetary Sciences (Rowe, 2016)

Abdulla Aldhaheri

“The theme of ambition.”

Bal Dhital

“It is the greatest adventure.”

Chloe Evans

“Encourage global cooperation and innovation. ”

David Girou

“For infinity and beyond!”

Erin Madden

“Pale Blue Dot.”

Evon Koprowski

“Inspire our inner and outer world.”

Gang Wu

“For earth and human dream. ”

Juan Li

“To benefit the human kind. ”

Junjie Li

“Making the Earth better. ”

Kai Zhang

“Explore the unknown beyond borders. ”

Kyle Faulkner

“Because it is there. ”

Lolowa Alkindi

“For the mystery. FOF SCIENCE!”

Michael Siddall

“Evolution for humanity. ”

Mohamed Alkarbi

“Earth is not the Destiny. ”

Qian Cheng

“”Dream, exploration, science, and development.

Qin Xu

“For my childhood and my child's dream.”

Rajasekhar Meka

“To improve lives on Earth. ”

Simon Jenner

“Helping humankind reach our potential. ”

Sonny Massahi

“Exploration, Curiosity, Science, Space travel. ”

William Grand-Maison

“Put humankind footprint in the universe. ”

Xiaoyong Xu

“For the future of humans.”

Yu He

“Curiosity of the universe.”

Zhongxia Guo

“Science and technology change your life.”