wood mackenzie presentation · 2020. 4. 9. · jacob halevy managing consultant, americas...
TRANSCRIPT
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Wood Mackenzie Presentation
About Wood Mackenzie
Agenda
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Global oil demand expected to fall by ~ 9 million barrels per day in 2Q20 from 2Q19
Wood Mackenzie
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
100
110
1Q18 1Q192Q18 3Q18
9999100
4Q18 1Q202Q19 4Q19 3Q212Q20 3Q20
90
3Q19 1Q21 2Q21 4Q21
9998 98 100 100 99 100
93
100 100 101 102
4Q20
North America Latin AmericaEurope Russia & Caspian Asia Middle East Africa
Global Oil Demand Outlook
Million b/d
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US Lower 48 crude supply is expected to fall by 870k b/d from 2020-2021, revised down by over 2.1 million b/d
Wood Mackenzie
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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2015 201920172016 2018 2020 2021
0.41.7
-0.87
Downward Revision Eagle Ford
Bakken
Rockies
SCOOP - STACK Permian
Other
L48 Crude Supply Outlook
Million b/d
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Wood Mackenzie expects crude runs in Texas to decline by ~700,000 b/d in 2Q20 compared to 2Q19 as result of COVID-19 impacts
Wood Mackenzie
Source: Wood Mackenzie; Genscape
4.0
3.0
5.5
0.0
2.5
1.0
0.5
1.5
2.0
3.5
4.5
5.0
6.0
5.4
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 2Q21
5.1
3Q213Q19
5.05.3
5.55.6
4.95.2 5.2 5.1
1Q18
4.5
4.8
4Q21
5.7 5.7
3Q182Q18 4Q18 1Q211Q19 2Q19
5.4
4Q19
5.5-0.7
Texas Inland Texas Gulf Coast
Texas Refinery Crude Runs Outlook
Million b/d
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Crude storage utilization a major concern as demand continues to fall in the US; US commercial storage forecasted to peak in July
Midstream Market Update
Source: Genscape; Wood Mackenzie
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2/24/201/13/20 1/27/20 2/10/20 3/9/20 3/23/20 4/6/20
Cushing Patoka PADD III%
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60
80
100
Dec-2
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n-2
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Ma
y-2
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Ma
r-20
Sep-2
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l-20
Apr-
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Dec-2
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Oct-
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Aug-2
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-21
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l-21
Aug-2
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Sep-2
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Nov-2
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Forecast peak at 98% utilization in
July 2020 – distressed barrels could
force production shut ins
Historical Weekly Crude Storage Utilization Forecasted US Commercial Storage Utilization
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Wood Mackenzie Presentation
About Wood Mackenzie
Agenda
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Wood Mackenzie is the global leader in natural resources industry Research and Consulting
Wood Mackenzie Consulting
1,000+ natural resources analysts across
35+ offices globally
leverage the integrated Wood Mackenzie
platform to provide clients commercial
insight and access to subject matter experts
150+ specialized
natural resources
consultants across the globe serve as trusted commercial advisors to the world’s
leading companies, investors and governments
An integrated research and
consulting business with
strong expertise and vast industry
relationships across the global natural resources
value chain
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Research Consulting Trusted Advisor
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Our consulting teams bring world-class knowledge, methodology, and people to natural resources advisory engagements
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& Design
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portfolio and the impact on strategy
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aims, support via structured training and development programmes
Strategy
Development
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Opportunities
Commercial
Evaluation
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assessment
Performance
Improvement
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Environment
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Wood Mackenzie Consulting
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Wood Mackenzie has completed 3,600+ consulting engagements across the natural resources sector over the past five years
Wood Mackenzie Consulting
Source: Wood Mackenzie
215155
241
302
139
Downstream
Power, Renewables & Other
Gas & LNG
Upstream
Metals & Mining
175
266
140
231
388
165
226
523
214
236
1,052
Americas
EMEARC
APAC
122
180
272
306
172
1,052
Strategy &
Portfolio
Business
Environment
Transaction
Support
Commercial
Advisory
Other
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Wood Mackenzie is uniquely suited to provide commercial support and industry expertise leveraging our integrated Research tools
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North America Gas Service270+
Americas Transaction
Projects 2015-2020
5+ Fit for
Purpose
Models
45+Years of
Experience
3000+upstream assets
already
modeled
170+Americas Strategy
Projects
2015-2020
GPCM
GPCM
North America
Crude Markets
Service
Crude disposition model covering every key supply basin and
takeaway pipeline in North America
• 20 refining centers across eight crude oil quality categories
• Price projections for 13 crudes
• Dynamic nodal model that can quickly run supply, takeaway, demand and
tariff scenarios on over 60 major pipelines
Refinery
Evaluation Model
Benchmark of Refinery Economics Around the World
• Model 700+ refineries globally (every refinery 50+ kbd)
• 90% coverage of refining capacity in every region
• >140 metrics on each refinery
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• 115+ countries covered
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• Underpinned by our field-by-field supply data
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Detailed Country and Regional Forecasts for Refined Product Markets
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and productivity metrics
Relevant Wood Mackenzie Tools and Accelerators
Crude
Flow outlook
for 60+North American
Pipelines
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