work packages: 1. technologies (combination of csp and desalting technologies)
DESCRIPTION
Work Packages: 1. Technologies (combination of CSP and desalting technologies) 2. Water and Solar Energy Resources 3. Demand Side Scenario 4. Market Potential 2000-2050 5. Socio-Economic Impacts 6. Environmental Impacts 7. Literature. WP 3: Freshwater Demand Population Prospects. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
Work Packages:
1. Technologies (combination of CSP and desalting technologies)
2. Water and Solar Energy Resources
3. Demand Side Scenario
4. Market Potential 2000-2050
5. Socio-Economic Impacts
6. Environmental Impacts
7. Literature
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
Population in MENA
0
100
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700
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
[m
illio
ns]
UrbanRural
WP 3: Freshwater DemandPopulation Prospects
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2000
2005
2010
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Pop
ulat
ion
[mill
ion]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgyptLibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandEconomic Growth
North Africa Western Asia Arabian Peninsula
Morocco 4.6 Jordan 4.4 Oman 3.2
Algeria 4.0 Lebanon 4.2 Kuwait 2.1
Tunesia 3.6 Syria 4.7 Qatar 1.9
Libya 3.8 Iraq 5.6 Saudi-Arabia 2.7
Egypt 4.1 Iran 3.8 UAE 1.8
Israel 1.9 Yemen 6.5
Reference U.S. 1.2 Palestine 4.6 Bahrain 2.3
Long-term average per capita growth rates of GDP
Arabian Peninsula
0
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60
20002005
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GD
P [
1000
$/ca
p P
PP
]
OmanKuwaitQatarSaudi ArabiaUAEYemenBahrain
North Africa
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Year
GD
P [
1000
$/c
ap P
PP
]
LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMoroccoEgypt
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandWater Demand Model
Sector Irrigation Municipal Industrial
Driving Force γ Population GDP GDP
Best Practice Effic. βirr = 70 % βmun = 85 % βind = 85 %
Progress Factor αirr = 50 % αmun = 65 % αind = 65 %
General End Use Eff. Enhancement μirr = 0 μmun = 1.8 %/y μind = 1.8 %/y
)1(
)(
)1())(1()1()(
t
tttt
))(1()()()()( ttttt SE
))(()()( SSE ttt
SE
S
tt
tt
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandWater Demand Prospects by Country
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Fre
shw
ater
Dem
and
[b
illio
n m
³/y]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandWater Demand Prospects by Sectors
Agricultural
MunicipalIndustrial
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Fre
shw
ater
Dem
and
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
0.0
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500.0
Sustainable Water Used
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandDeficits by Country
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160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Fre
shw
ater
Def
icit
[b
illio
n m
³/y]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandScenario Variations
Type of Scenario Business As Usual AQUA-CSP Extreme Efficiency
Progress Factor αirr for
Irrigation Efficiency
20 % 50 % 100 %
Progress Factors αmun, ind
for Distribution Efficiency
20 % 65 % 100 %
Waste Water Re-Use 30 % 50 % 75 %
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
Business As Usual Scenario
Agricultural
MunicipalIndustrial
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Year
Fre
shw
ate
r D
eman
d
[bil
lio
n m
³/y]
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Sustainable Water Used
Business As Usual Scenario
0
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Year
Fre
shw
ate
r D
efi
cit
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
Bahrain
YemenUAE
Saudi ArabiaQatar
KuwaitOmanIran
IraqSyria
LebanonJordan
IsraelPalestine
Egypt LibyaTunisia
AlgeriaMorocco
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
Agricultural
MunicipalIndustrial
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shw
ater
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and
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
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Sustainable Water Used
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
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Year
Fre
shw
ater
Def
icit
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco
WP 3: Freshwater DemandScenario Variation Business As Usual
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
Agricultural
MunicipalIndustrial
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20002005
20102015
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Year
Fre
shw
ater
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and
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
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Sustainable Water Used
AQUA-CSP Reference Scenario
0
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Fre
shw
ater
Def
icit
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco
Extreme Efficiency Scenario
Agricultural
MunicipalIndustrial
0
100
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20102015
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Year
Fre
shw
ater
Dem
and
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Sustainable Water Used
Extreme Efficiency Scenario
0
50
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250
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Fre
shw
ater
Def
icit
[b
illi
on
m³/
y]
BahrainYemenUAESaudi ArabiaQatarKuwaitOmanIranIraqSyriaLebanonJordanIsraelPalestineEgypt LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco
WP 3: Freshwater DemandScenario Variation Extreme Efficiency
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandCoincidence with other Analysis
0
10000
20000
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60000
Abu-Zeid 2004 AQUA-CSP
Sa
vin
gs
un
til 2
02
5 [
Mm
³/y]
.
Re-Use
Ind./Com.
Municipal
Irrigation
Total Water Demand (GCC Countries)
0
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60
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025
Wat
er D
eman
d [
BC
MY
]
AQUA-CSP ESCWA 2001
Total Water Demand (North Africa)
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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2025
Wat
er D
eman
d [
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MY
]
AQUA-CSP Blue Plan 2005
Total Water Demand (Mashreq)
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er D
eman
d [
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]
AQUA-CSP Al-Zubari 2002
AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP WP 3: Freshwater DemandConclusions
MENA population will double by 2050
MENA economies will approximate European level by 2050
Water demand would grow from 270 Bm³/y in 2000 to 460 Bm³/y in 2050
Water deficit would increase from 50 Bm³/y in 2000 to 150 Bm³/y in 2050
Over-use of groundwater is already above 45 Bm³/y
Extreme efficiency could limit deficit to 100 Bm³/y
Efficiency and new sources will be required to cover water deficits