WORKSHOP AGIR

HELSINKI

JUNE 12-13, 2003

RESULTS FOR BELGIUM: WP1 – WP2

J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT

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Federal Planning Bureau

Economic Analysis &

Forecasts

WP 1 Biodemographic aspects of ageing

Paper presented in The Hague, 14-15/2/2003:

- Population: evolution, structure by age and by gender

- Fertility: number of births, birth rate

- Mortality, probabilities of death, survivors

- Longevity : LE, modal + median life duration, life endurance record age

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WP 1 Biodemographic aspects of ageing (2)

- Life courses : age to leave school, marriage, children, retirement and widowhood

- Morbidity: health and disability (vision and hearing problems, mental health, mobility)

- Healthy and disability free life expectancy

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WP1 – Results Belgium

Additional information gathered since AGIR meeting in The Hague, February 14-15

- Number of births by gender 1950 - 2050

- Age at first job

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Fertility

Number of births by gender, 1948 – 2000

Decrease in the number of births (150.000 in 1948 and 114.800 in 2000)

More boys than girls

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998

Men Women

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Fertility (2)

Number of births by gender, 2000 – 2050

Varies between 115.000 and 108.000 babies

51,000

52,000

53,000

54,000

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048

Men Women

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Age at first jobAverage age at first job, 1990 – 2000, men and women

(irrespective whether still doing this job or not)

Increase in age at first job from 20 in 1990 to 24 in 2000

(note: age at which people leave school increased from 19.9 to 21.5 in the same period)

19202122232425

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

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WP2 – Use of health care and nursing

by the elderly Paper presented at The Hague, 14-15/2/2003

- Demand for (use of) health care a) Hospital admissions

b) Length of hospital stay

c) Contacts with doctor (average number)

- Demand for (use of) long term care at home and in institutions

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WP2 – Use of health care and nursing by the elderly

- Supply of ‘formal’ health care: doctors, nurses, hospital beds…

- Supply of ‘informal’ health care:

a) Household composition

b) Labour market developments:

participation rates, PT employment,

working hours…

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WP2 – Results Belgium

Additional information gathered since AGIR meeting in The Hague, February 14-15

- Hospital admissions- Length of hospital stay- Contacts with a doctor (% of population)- Household composition by age group and

gender

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Hospital admissions

Average number of admissions, 2000, by age and gender

Highest at age 0, then decrease, to increase again with age Women are less frequently admitted except at age 15-34

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0-1 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

men women

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Hospital admissions (2)Average number of admissions – 1991 – 2000, by gender / age

Increase between 1991-’00 for younger and older age groupsDecrease between 1991-’00 between age 1 and 45

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0-1 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

men 1991 men 2000 women 1991 women 2000

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Length of hospital stay

Average length of hospital stay by age group and gender, 2000

Positive relation with age : increases as people get olderHigher for women than for men, especially in oldest age group

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

men women

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Length of hospital stay (2)

Average length of hospital stay by age group / gender, 1991-00

Decrease between 1991-2000, men/women, all age groups

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

men 1991 men 2000 women 1991 women 2000

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Volume of hospital stay

Volume of hospital stay, 2000, by gender and age

U-shaped curve, positive relation with ageSimilar for men and women (except age 15-34)

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0-1 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

men women

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Volume of hospital stay (2)

Volume of hospital stay, MEN, by age , 1991 – 2000

Slight decrease between 1991 and 2000, all ages except youngest age group

0

2

4

6

8

10

0-1 5-14

25-34

45-54

65-74

1991 2000

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Volume of hospital stay (3)

Volume of hospital stay, WOMEN, by age, 1991 – 2000

Slight decrease between 1991 and 1998, all ages except youngest age group

0

2

4

6

8

0-1 1-4 5-14

15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

1991 2000

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Contacts with doctor% of population having contact with doctor during past year, by

gender and age, 2001

Increase with age (avg. # of contacts increases with age too)More women contact their doctor than men do (except in

youngest age group)

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

0-4 5-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Men Women

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Household composition% of MEN in single HH, 1991-2001, by age group

% increases with age% decreased between 1991 and 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 >90

1991 2001

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Household composition (2)% of WOMEN in single HH, 1991-2001, by age group

% increases with age, except in oldest age group% decreased between 1991 and 2001

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 >90

1991 2001

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