workshop trade-off analysis - cgiar_19 feb 2013_crp 7_philip thornton & lini wollenberg
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Assessing adaptation, mitigation and risk management options at multiple scales
Lini Wollenberg, Philip ThorntonCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Systems tools workshop, Wageningen, February 2013
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• CCAFS background
• … at different spatial scales
• … at different temporal scales
• … in different domains (of knowledge,
modes of enquiry, …)
• Concluding remarks
Outline
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1. Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.
2. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.
CCAFS objectives
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The CCAFS Framework
Adapting Agriculture toClimate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:
1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
Improved Environmental
HealthImproved
Rural Livelihoods
Improved Food
Security
Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural
resource management, and food systems
Trade-offs and Synergies
4. Integration for Decision Making
• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis
and Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
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… different spatial scales
What are the trade-offs and synergies between
benefits and costs (social, economic, nutritional,
environmental) at:
• Household, community levels and
• At national, regional, global levels?
Many examples: new technology production increases product prices decrease social benefits for urbanites individual producer disbenefits, so no adoption …
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Global Scenarios
Regional Scenarios
Farmer/village perspectives
Action research
Participatory scenario building
Global visioning activities
Global impacts modelling
Regional impacts
modelling
Household & community
impacts modelling
Assessing different options at different scalesImportance of iteration; and which are robust?
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… different temporal scales
Are there trade-offs between benefits and costs (social,
economic, environmental) between:
• Coping with disasters now (drought, flood)
• Managing seasonal risk
• Adapting to increasing decadal temperatures?
Many pathways to “maladaptation”: actions that increase GHG emissions; that disproportionately burden the most vulnerable; that have high opportunity costs; that reduce incentives to adapt; that limit choices available to future generations (Barnett & O’Neil, 2009)
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Managing climate risk · 2
>> Indexed crop & livestock insurance
• Avoids cost of verifying losses
• Overcomes the problems of moral hazard
• Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks
• Impacts on longer-term local prices, local commodity supply, on the environment?
In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than
on observed losses.
Trade-offs, synergies?
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Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Farms of the future
Climate analogue tool to identify places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
• Sharing knowledge through cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
• Climate similarity mediated via socio-economic, politico-cultural similarities and differences
• Do longer-term adaptations make sense next season?
Trade-offs, synergies?
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… different domains
• The need to find synergies between mitigation and
adaptation
• The need to balance indigenous knowledge /
experience with new science
• The need to balance technology and process (social
learning …)
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Individual Network SystemFacilitating Interaction
“Search Conferences” (5) Role playing games (1, 3) Joint interactive use of a single influence model (3)
Collaborative learning exercise (9) Participatory techniques combined with social learning approaches (7) Facilitating public participation (7) Develop partnerships, engage in action research (10) Field visits, virtual role playing, project and policy simulation exercises (12)
Participatory techniques for mentoring farmers’ representatives (22) Coordination platforms, especially at regional level (18?)
Capturing Lessons
Framing/reframing exercise (14) Field visits (22)
Knowledge Manage-ment
Actors Platforms (3) Workshops for joint knowledge production (4) Card sorting techniques (3) Hexagon modeling (3)
Development of a knowledge network (12) ICT-tools (14) Collective perceptive maps (14)
Combining farmer-produced resource maps of catchment areas (16)
Simulation Agent based social simulation (3)Companion Modeling approach (1)
Future scenarios workshops (8)
Social learning tools and approaches
Harvey (2013)
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Low emissions development· 3
>> Governing mitigation trade-offs in agriculture-forest landscapes
• Intensify agriculture to conserve tropical forests?
• Forest C and ES at expense of expansion in South, CO2 in North
• Intensification lowers GHG/kg, but increases inputs and pollutants
•
Trade-offs, Synergies?
Livelihoods
Mitigation and sustainability
Food Security
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Test innovations in supply chain Footprint of outcomes and
efficiencies
Analytics
Emergent properties
Trade-offs
e.g. sustainability policies, development investments, agricultural credit,
certification, industry CSR initiatives, awareness campaigns
Rethinking agricultural efficiencies
Per ha, kg, person
UVM Gund Institute Initiative (Ricketts, Galford, Mendez, Farley ) with University of Michigan (Agrawal, Newton)
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Strategic questions for mitigation1. How to avoid trade-offs: Low emissions
development • SAMPLES HH modeling (ICRAF-ILRI-IRRI)• IIASA- LED priorities• U. Michigan- jointness of outcomes
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2. Land for food v. energy v. forests• Meeting energy needs: energy-food crop
intermodel comparison (PIK and ILRI)• Geography of adaptation: impacts of
elevation change by perennial crops (CIAT)
Strategic questions cont.
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Concluding remarks
Priorities for attention• Develop systems approach to link TO analysis• Sustainable intensification efficiencies and sustainability
under climate change• More understanding of options and impacts from (1)
short-to long-term and (2) benefits and costs across social groups
Challenges• Costs of measuring multiple dimensions• Managing process for understanding and applying local
stakeholder values in specific places